Variability of lung function predicts loss of asthma control following withdrawal of inhaled corticosteroid treatment

BACKGROUND One aspect of a multidimensional approach to understanding asthma as a complex dynamic disease is to study how lung function varies with time. Variability measures of lung function have been shown to predict response to beta(2)-agonist treatment. An investigation was conducted to determine whether mean, coefficient of variation (CV) or autocorrelation, a measure of short-term memory, of peak expiratory flow (PEF) could predict loss of asthma control following withdrawal of regular inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) treatment, using data from a previous study. METHODS 87 adult patients with mild to moderate asthma who had been taking ICS at a constant dose for at least 6 months were monitored for 2-4 weeks. ICS was then withdrawn and monitoring continued until loss of control occurred as per predefined criteria. Twice-daily PEF was recorded during monitoring. Associations between loss of control and mean, CV and autocorrelation of morning PEF within 2 weeks pre- and post-ICS withdrawal were assessed using Cox regression analysis. Predictive utility was assessed using receiver operator characteristics. RESULTS 53 out of 87 patients had sufficient PEF data over the required analysis period. The mean (389 vs 370 l/min, p<0.0001) and CV (4.5% vs 5.6%, p=0.007) but not autocorrelation of PEF changed significantly from prewithdrawal to postwithdrawal in subjects who subsequently lost control, and were unaltered in those who did not. These changes were related to time to loss of control. CV was the most consistent predictor, with similar sensitivity and sensitivity to exhaled nitric oxide. CONCLUSION A simple, easy to obtain variability measure of daily lung function such as the CV may predict loss of asthma control within the first 2 weeks of ICS withdrawal.

Prognosis of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Symptomatic Peripheral Arterial Disease: Data from the REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular (CV) mortality. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic implication of AF in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). METHODS: The International Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry included 23,542 outpatients in Europe with established coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease (CVD), PAD and/or >/=3 risk factors. Of these, 3753 patients had symptomatic PAD. CV risk factors were determined at baseline. Study end point was a combination of cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke (CV events) during 2 years of follow-up. Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, gender and other risk factors (i.e., congestive heart failure, coronary artery re-vascularisation, coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), MI, hypertension, stroke, current smoking and diabetes) was used. RESULTS: Of 3753 PAD patients, 392 (10%) were known to have AF. Patients with AF were older and had a higher prevalence of CVD, diabetes and hypertension. Long-term CV mortality occurred in 5.6% of patients with AF and in 1.6% of those without AF (p<0.001). Multivariable analyses showed that AF was an independent predictor of late CV events (hazard ratio (HR): 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09-2.0). CONCLUSION: AF is common in European patients with symptomatic PAD and is independently associated with a worse 2-year CV outcome.

Mining tissue microarray data to uncover combinations of biomarker expression patterns that improve intermediate staging and grading of clear cell renal cell cancer

PURPOSE: Tumor stage and nuclear grade are the most important prognostic parameters of clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). The progression risk of ccRCC remains difficult to predict particularly for tumors with organ-confined stage and intermediate differentiation grade. Elucidating molecular pathways deregulated in ccRCC may point to novel prognostic parameters that facilitate planning of therapeutic approaches. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Using tissue microarrays, expression patterns of 15 different proteins were evaluated in over 800 ccRCC patients to analyze pathways reported to be physiologically controlled by the tumor suppressors von Hippel-Lindau protein and phosphatase and tensin homologue (PTEN). Tumor staging and grading were improved by performing variable selection using Cox regression and a recursive bootstrap elimination scheme. RESULTS: Patients with pT2 and pT3 tumors that were p27 and CAIX positive had a better outcome than those with all remaining marker combinations. A prolonged survival among patients with intermediate grade (grade 2) correlated with both nuclear p27 and cytoplasmic PTEN expression, as well as with inactive, nonphosphorylated ribosomal protein S6. By applying graphical log-linear modeling for over 700 ccRCC for which the molecular parameters were available, only a weak conditional dependence existed between the expression of p27, PTEN, CAIX, and p-S6, suggesting that the dysregulation of several independent pathways are crucial for tumor progression. CONCLUSIONS: The use of recursive bootstrap elimination, as well as graphical log-linear modeling for comprehensive tissue microarray (TMA) data analysis allows the unraveling of complex molecular contexts and may improve predictive evaluations for patients with advanced renal cancer.

Risk factors promoting hypertensive crises: evidence from a longitudinal study

Background Current knowledge about risk factors promoting hypertensive crisis originates from retrospective data. Therefore, potential risk factors of hypertensive crisis were assessed in a prospective longitudinal study. Methods Eighty-nine patients of the medical outpatient unit at the University Hospital of Bern (Bern, Switzerland) with previously diagnosed hypertension participated in this study. At baseline, 33 potential risk factors were assessed. All patients were followed-up for the outcome of hypertensive crisis. Cox regression models were used to detect relationships between risk factors and hypertensive crisis (defined as acute rise of systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥200mmHg and/or diastolic BP ≥120mmHg). Results The mean duration of follow-up was 1.6 ± 0.3 years (range 1.0–2.4 years). Four patients (4.5%) were lost to follow-up. Thirteen patients (15.3%) experienced hypertensive crisis during follow-up. Several potential risk factors were significantly associated with hypertensive crisis: female sex, higher grades of obesity, the presence of a hypertensive or coronary heart disease, the presence of a somatoform disorder, a higher number of antihypertensive drugs, and nonadherence to medication. As measured by the hazard ratio, nonadherence was the most important factor associated with hypertensive crisis (hazard ratio 5.88, 95% confidence interval 1.59–21.77, P < 0.01). Conclusions This study identified several potential risk factors of hypertensive crisis. Results of this study are consistent with the hypothesis that improvement of medical adherence in antihypertensive therapy would help to prevent hypertensive crises. However, larger studies are needed to assess potential confounding, other risk factors and the possibility of interaction between predictors.

Religion and assisted and non-assisted suicide in Switzerland: National Cohort Study

Background In the 19th century, eminent French sociologist Emile Durkheim found suicide rates to be higher in the Protestant compared with the Catholic cantons of Switzerland. We examined religious affiliation and suicide in modern Switzerland, where assisted suicide is legal. Methods The 2000 census records of 1 722 456 (46.0%) Catholics, 1 565 452 (41.8%) Protestants and 454 397 (12.2%) individuals with no affiliation were linked to mortality records up to December 2005. The association between religious affiliation and suicide, with the Protestant faith serving as the reference category, was examined in Cox regression models. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were adjusted for age, marital status, education, type of household, language and degree of urbanization. Results Suicide rates per 100 000 inhabitants were 19.7 in Catholics (1664 suicides), 28.5 in Protestants (2158 suicides) and 39.0 in those with no affiliation (882 suicides). Associations with religion were modified by age and gender (P < 0.0001). Compared with Protestant men aged 35–64 years, HRs (95% CI) for all suicides were 0.80 (0.73–0.88) in Catholic men and 1.09 (0.98–1.22) in men with no affiliation; and 0.60 (0.53–0.67) and 1.96 (1.69–2.27), respectively, in men aged 65–94 years. Corresponding HRs in women aged 35–64 years were 0.90 (0.80–1.03) and 1.46 (1.25–1.72); and 0.67 (0.59–0.77) and 2.63 (2.22–3.12) in women aged 65–94 years. The association was strongest for suicides by poisoning in the 65–94-year-old age group, the majority of which was assisted: HRs were 0.45 (0.35–0.59) for Catholic men and 3.01 (2.37–3.82) for men with no affiliation; 0.44 (0.36–0.55) for Catholic women and 3.14 (2.51–3.94) for women with no affiliation. Conclusions In Switzerland, the protective effect of a religious affiliation appears to be stronger in Catholics than in Protestants, stronger in older than in younger people, stronger in women than in men, and particularly strong for assisted suicides.

Prediction of Psychosis by Mismatch Negativity

BACKGROUND: To develop risk-adapted prevention of psychosis, an accurate estimation of the individual risk of psychosis at a given time is needed. Inclusion of biological parameters into multilevel prediction models is thought to improve predictive accuracy of models on the basis of clinical variables. To this aim, mismatch negativity (MMN) was investigated in a sample clinically at high risk, comparing individuals with and without subsequent conversion to psychosis. METHODS: At baseline, an auditory oddball paradigm was used in 62 subjects meeting criteria of a late risk at-state who remained antipsychotic-naive throughout the study. Median follow-up period was 32 months (minimum of 24 months in nonconverters, n = 37). Repeated-measures analysis of covariance was employed to analyze the MMN recorded at frontocentral electrodes; additional comparisons with healthy controls (HC, n = 67) and first-episode schizophrenia patients (FES, n = 33) were performed. Predictive value was evaluated by a Cox regression model. RESULTS: Compared with nonconverters, duration MMN in converters (n = 25) showed significantly reduced amplitudes across the six frontocentral electrodes; the same applied in comparison with HC, but not FES, whereas the duration MMN in in nonconverters was comparable to HC and larger than in FES. A prognostic score was calculated based on a Cox regression model and stratified into two risk classes, which showed significantly different survival curves. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate the duration MMN is significantly reduced in at-risk subjects converting to first-episode psychosis compared with nonconverters and may contribute not only to the prediction of conversion but also to a more individualized risk estimation and thus risk-adapted prevention.

Factors determining the success of radiofrequency denervation in lumbar facet joint pain: a prospective study

Background and aims Radiofrequency denervation (RF) of the lumbar facet joints has been shown to be effective in well-selected patients. However, long-term success varies between studies. We evaluated the influence of selected psychosocial and constitutional factors on the outcome of RF, expressed as the duration of pain relief. Methods This prospective observational study included 44 patients who received RF denervations at the University Hospital of Berne. Success was defined as at least 50% pain reduction 7–21 days, 6 months and 1 year after RF therapy. The Cox-regression analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of the following factors on the duration of success: age, sex, depression, work inability and previous surgery. Results Complete follow-up was available for 41 patients. The success rate 7–21 days after the denervation was 76%. It decreased to 32% at 6 months and to 22% at 1 year. The median success duration was 17 weeks (95% CI 10–26). The Cox-regression analysis showed a significant shorter duration of success for patients with depression (hazard ratio [HR] 2.97, 95% CI 1.32–6.65), previous surgery (HR 2.39, 95% CI 1.10–5.21) and number of treated joints (HR 1.95 for each increase in the number of joints, 95% CI 1.14–3.33). In bivariate analyses, only depression was kept to be significant. Conclusions Depression seems to be related with a short duration of success. Based on these findings, a comprehensive study is warranted to evaluate whether psychosocial factors have to be considered when recruiting patients for radiofrequency denervation.

Improved antiretroviral treatment outcome in a rural African setting is associated with cART initiation at higher CD4 cell counts and better general health condition

Background Data on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in remote rural African regions is increasing. Methods We assessed prospectively initial cART in HIV-infected adults treated from 2005 to 2008 at St. Francis Designated District Hospital, Ifakara, Tanzania. Adherence was assisted by personal adherence supporters. We estimated risk factors of death or loss to follow-up by Cox regression during the first 12 months of cART. Results Overall, 1,463 individuals initiated cART, which was nevirapine-based in 84.6%. The median age was 40 years (IQR 34-47), 35.4% were males, 7.6% had proven tuberculosis. Median CD4 cell count was 131 cells/μl and 24.8% had WHO stage 4. Median CD4 cell count increased by 61 and 130 cells/μl after 6 and 12 months, respectively. 215 (14.7%) patients modified their treatment, mostly due to toxicity (56%), in particular polyneuropathy and anemia. Overall, 129 patients died (8.8%) and 189 (12.9%) were lost to follow-up. In a multivariate analysis, low CD4 cells at starting cART were associated with poorer survival and loss to follow-up (HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.15-2.75, p = 0.009; for CD4 <50 compared to >100 cells/μl). Higher weight was strongly associated with better survival (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.51-0.76, p < 0.001 per 10 kg increase). Conclusions cART initiation at higher CD4 cell counts and better general health condition reduces HIV related mortality in a rural African setting. Efforts must be made to promote earlier HIV diagnosis to start cART timely. More research is needed to evaluate effective strategies to follow cART at a peripheral level with limited technical possibilities.

Stromal cell-associated expression of kallikrein-related peptidase 6 (KLK6) indicates poor prognosis of ovarian cancer patients

Several members of the human kallikrein-related peptidase family, including KLK6, are up-regulated in ovarian cancer. High KLK6 mRNA or protein expression, measured by quantitative polymerase chain reaction and enzyme-linked immunoassay, respectively, was previously found to be associated with a shortened overall and progression-free survival (OS and PFS, respectively). In the present study, we aimed at analyzing KLK6 protein expression in ovarian cancer tissue by immunohistochemistry. Using a newly developed monospecific polyclonal antibody, KLK6 immunoexpression was initially evaluated in normal tissues. We observed strong staining in the brain and moderate staining in the kidney, liver, and ovary, whereas the pancreas and the skeletal muscle were unreactive, which is in line with previously published results. Next, both tumor cell- and stromal cell-associated KLK6 immunoexpression were analyzed in tumor tissue specimens of 118 ovarian cancer patients. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, only stromal cell-associated expression, besides the established clinical parameters FIGO stage and residual tumor mass, was found to be statistically significant for OS and PFS [high vs. low KLK6 expression; hazard ratio (HR), 1.92; p=0.017; HR, 1.80; p=0.042, respectively]. These results indicate that KLK6 expressed by stromal cells may considerably contribute to the aggressiveness of ovarian cancer.

Prediction of psychosis in clinical high-risk patients by the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire. Results of the EPOS project

OBJECTIVE: Schizotypal features indicate proneness to psychosis in the general population. It is also possible that they increase transition to psychosis (TTP) among clinical high-risk patients (CHR). Our aim was to investigate whether schizotypal features predict TTP in CHR patients. METHODS: In the EPOS (European Prediction of Psychosis Study) project, 245 young help-seeking CHR patients were prospectively followed for 18 months and their TTP was identified. At baseline, subjects were assessed with the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire (SPQ). Associations between SPQ items and its subscales with the TTP were analysed in Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: The SPQ subscales and items describing ideas of reference and lack of close interpersonal relationships were found to correlate significantly with TTP. The co-occurrence of these features doubled the risk of TTP. CONCLUSIONS: Presence of ideas of reference and lack of close interpersonal relations increase the risk of full-blown psychosis among CHR patients. This co-occurrence makes the risk of psychosis very high.

Minor protease inhibitor mutations at baseline do not increase the risk for a virological failure in HIV-1 subtype B infected patients

Background Minor protease inhibitor (PI) mutations often exist as polymorphisms in HIV-1 sequences from treatment-naïve patients. Previous studies showed that their presence impairs the antiretroviral treatment (ART) response. Evaluating these findings in a larger cohort is essential. Methods To study the impact of minor PI mutations on time to viral suppression and time to virological failure, we included patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study infected with HIV-1 subtype B who started first-line ART with a PI and two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Cox regression models were performed to compare the outcomes among patients with 0 and ≥1 minor PI mutation. Models were adjusted for baseline HIV-1 RNA, CD4 cell count, sex, transmission category, age, ethnicity, year of ART start, the presence of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor mutations, and stratified for the administered PIs. Results We included 1199 patients of whom 944 (78.7%) received a boosted PI. Minor PI mutations associated with the administered PI were common: 41.7%, 16.1%, 4.7% and 1.9% had 1, 2, 3 or ≥4 mutations, respectively. The time to viral suppression was similar between patients with 0 (reference) and ≥1 minor PI mutation (multivariable hazard ratio (HR): 1.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0–1.3], P = .196). The time to virological failure was also similar (multivariable HR:.9 [95% CI:.5–1.6], P = .765). In addition, the impact of each single minor PI mutation was analyzed separately: none was significantly associated with the treatment outcome. Conclusions The presence of minor PI mutations at baseline has no effect on the therapy outcome in HIV infected individuals.

Prognostic impact of lymph node ratio outperforms positive lymph nodes and lymph nodes harvested: a time-dependent analysis in mismatch repair-proficient and –deficient colrectal cancers

Objective: We compare the prognostic strength of the lymph node ratio (LNR), positive lymph nodes (+LNs) and collected lymph nodes (LNcoll) using a time-dependent analysis in colorectal cancer patients stratified by mismatch repair (MMR) status. Method: 580 stage III-IV patients were included. Multivariable Cox regression analysis and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (tROC) curve analysis were performed. The Area under the Curve (AUC) over time was compared for the three features. Results were validated on a second cohort of 105 stage III-IV patients. Results: The AUC for the LNR was 0.71 and outperformed + LNs and LNcoll by 10–15 % in both MMR-proficient and deficient cancers. LNR and + LNs were both significant (p<0.0001) in multivariable analysis but the effect was considerably stronger for the LNR [LNR: HR=5.18 (95 % CI: 3.5–7.6); +LNs=1.06 (95 % CI: 1.04–1.08)]. Similar results were obtained for patients with >12 LNcoll. An optimal cut off score for LNR=0.231 was validated on the second cohort (p<0.001). Conclusion: The LNR outperforms the + LNs and LNcoll even in patients with >12 LNcoll. Its clinical value is not confounded by MMR status. A cut-of score of 0.231 may best stratify patients into prognostic subgroups and could be a basis for the future prospective analysis of the LNR.

Falsely high ankle-brachial index predicts major amputation in critical limb ischemia

Falsely high ankle-brachial index (ABI) values are associated with an adverse clinical outcome in diabetes mellitus. The aim of the present study was to verify whether such an association also exists in patients with chronic critical limb ischemia (CLI) with and without diabetes. A total of 229 patients (74 +/- 11 years, 136 males, 244 limbs with CLI) were followed for 262 +/- 136 days. Incompressibility of lower limb arteries (ABI > 1.3) was found in 45 patients, and was associated with diabetes mellitus (p = 0.01) and renal insufficiency (p = 0.035). Limbs with incompressible ankle arteries had a higher rate of major amputation (p = 0.002 by log-rank). This association was confirmed by multivariate Cox regression analysis (relative risk [RR] 2.67; 95% CI 1.27-5.64, p = 0.01). The relationship between ABI > 1.3 and amputation rate persisted after subjects with diabetes and renal insufficiency had been removed from the analysis (RR 3.85; 95% CI 1.25-11.79, p = 0.018). Dividing limbs with measurable ankle pressure according to tertiles of ABI, the group in the second tertile (0.323 < or = ABI < or = 0.469) had the lowest amputation rate (4/64, 6.2%), and a U-shaped association between the occurrence of major amputation and ABI was evident. No association was found between ABI and mortality. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that falsely high ABI is an independent predictor of major amputation in patients with CLI.

HIV treatment response and prognosis in Europe and North America in the first decade of highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis

BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for the treatment of HIV infection was introduced a decade ago. We aimed to examine trends in the characteristics of patients starting HAART in Europe and North America, and their treatment response and short-term prognosis. METHODS: We analysed data from 22,217 treatment-naive HIV-1-infected adults who had started HAART and were followed up in one of 12 cohort studies. The probability of reaching 500 or less HIV-1 RNA copies per mL by 6 months, and the change in CD4 cell counts, were analysed for patients starting HAART in 1995-96, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002-03. The primary endpoints were the hazard ratios for AIDS and for death from all causes in the first year of HAART, which were estimated using Cox regression. RESULTS: The proportion of heterosexually infected patients increased from 20% in 1995-96 to 47% in 2002-03, and the proportion of women from 16% to 32%. The median CD4 cell count when starting HAART increased from 170 cells per muL in 1995-96 to 269 cells per muL in 1998 but then decreased to around 200 cells per muL. In 1995-96, 58% achieved HIV-1 RNA of 500 copies per mL or less by 6 months compared with 83% in 2002-03. Compared with 1998, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS were 1.07 (95% CI 0.84-1.36) in 1995-96 and 1.35 (1.06-1.71) in 2002-03. Corresponding figures for death were 0.87 (0.56-1.36) and 0.96 (0.61-1.51). INTERPRETATION: Virological response after starting HAART improved over calendar years, but such improvement has not translated into a decrease in mortality.

Anemia is associated with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) size and decreased long-term survival after endovascular AAA repair

OBJECTIVE: Anemia is a common comorbid condition in various inflammatory states and an established predictor of mortality in patients with chronic heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and end-stage renal disease. The present study of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) undergoing endovascular repair (EVAR) assessed the relationships between baseline hemoglobin concentration and AAA size, as well as anemia and long-term survival. METHODS: Between March 1994 and November 2006, 711 patients (65 women, mean age 75.8 +/- 7.8 years) underwent elective EVAR. Anemia was defined as a hemoglobin level <13 g/dL in men and <12 g/dL in women. Post-EVAR mean follow-up was 48.3 +/- 32.0 months. Association of hemoglobin level with AAA size was assessed with multiple linear regression. Mortality was determined with use of the internet-based Social Security Death Index and the electronic hospital record. Kaplan-Meier survival curves of anemic and nonanemic patient groups were compared by the log-rank method. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine the influence of anemia on vital status after EVAR. RESULTS: A total of 218/711 (30.7%) of AAA patients undergoing EVAR had anemia at baseline. After adjustment for various risk factors, hemoglobin level was inversely related to maximum AAA diameter (beta: - .144, 95%-CI: -1.482 - .322, P = .002). Post-EVAR survival was 65.5% at 5 years and 44.4% at 10 years. In long-term follow-up, survival was significantly lower in patients with anemia as compared to patients without anemia (P < .0001 by log-rank). Baseline hemoglobin levels were independently related to long-term mortality in multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusted for various risk factors (adjusted HR: 0.866, 95% CI: .783 to .958, P = .005). Within this model, statin use (adjusted HR: .517, 95% CI: .308 to .868, P = .013) was independently related to long-term survival, whereas baseline AAA diameter (adjusted HR: 1.022, 95% CI: 1.009 to 1.036, P = .001) was an independently associated with increased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline hemoglobin concentration is independently associated with AAA size and reduced long-term survival following EVAR. Thus, the presence or absence of anemia offers a potential refinement of existing risk stratification instruments.