A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

When estimating the effect of treatment on HIV using data from observational studies, standard methods may produce biased estimates due to the presence of time-dependent confounders. Such confounding can be present when a covariate, affected by past exposure, is both a predictor of the future exposure and the outcome. One example is the CD4 cell count, being a marker for disease progression for HIV patients, but also a marker for treatment initiation and influenced by treatment. Fitting a marginal structural model (MSM) using inverse probability weights is one way to give appropriate adjustment for this type of confounding. In this paper we study a simple and intuitive approach to estimate similar treatment effects, using observational data to mimic several randomized controlled trials. Each 'trial' is constructed based on individuals starting treatment in a certain time interval. An overall effect estimate for all such trials is found using composite likelihood inference. The method offers an alternative to the use of inverse probability of treatment weights, which is unstable in certain situations. The estimated parameter is not identical to the one of an MSM, it is conditioned on covariate values at the start of each mimicked trial. This allows the study of questions that are not that easily addressed fitting an MSM. The analysis can be performed as a stratified weighted Cox analysis on the joint data set of all the constructed trials, where each trial is one stratum. The model is applied to data from the Swiss HIV cohort study.

Improved antiretroviral treatment outcome in a rural African setting is associated with cART initiation at higher CD4 cell counts and better general health condition

Background Data on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in remote rural African regions is increasing. Methods We assessed prospectively initial cART in HIV-infected adults treated from 2005 to 2008 at St. Francis Designated District Hospital, Ifakara, Tanzania. Adherence was assisted by personal adherence supporters. We estimated risk factors of death or loss to follow-up by Cox regression during the first 12 months of cART. Results Overall, 1,463 individuals initiated cART, which was nevirapine-based in 84.6%. The median age was 40 years (IQR 34-47), 35.4% were males, 7.6% had proven tuberculosis. Median CD4 cell count was 131 cells/μl and 24.8% had WHO stage 4. Median CD4 cell count increased by 61 and 130 cells/μl after 6 and 12 months, respectively. 215 (14.7%) patients modified their treatment, mostly due to toxicity (56%), in particular polyneuropathy and anemia. Overall, 129 patients died (8.8%) and 189 (12.9%) were lost to follow-up. In a multivariate analysis, low CD4 cells at starting cART were associated with poorer survival and loss to follow-up (HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.15-2.75, p = 0.009; for CD4 <50 compared to >100 cells/μl). Higher weight was strongly associated with better survival (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.51-0.76, p < 0.001 per 10 kg increase). Conclusions cART initiation at higher CD4 cell counts and better general health condition reduces HIV related mortality in a rural African setting. Efforts must be made to promote earlier HIV diagnosis to start cART timely. More research is needed to evaluate effective strategies to follow cART at a peripheral level with limited technical possibilities.

The selective Cox-2 inhibitor Celecoxib suppresses angiogenesis and growth of secondary bone tumors: an intravital microscopy study in mice

BACKGROUND: The inhibition of angiogenesis is a promising strategy for the treatment of malignant primary and secondary tumors in addition to established therapies such as surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation. There is strong experimental evidence in primary tumors that Cyclooxygenase-2 (Cox-2) inhibition is a potent mechanism to reduce angiogenesis. For bone metastases which occur in up to 85% of the most frequent malignant primary tumors, the effects of Cox-2 inhibition on angiogenesis and tumor growth remain still unclear. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the effects of Celecoxib, a selective Cox-2 inhibitor, on angiogenesis, microcirculation and growth of secondary bone tumors. METHODS: In 10 male severe combined immunodeficient (SCID) mice, pieces of A549 lung carcinomas were implanted into a newly developed cranial window preparation where the calvaria serves as the site for orthotopic implantation of the tumors. From day 8 after tumor implantation, five animals (Celecoxib) were treated daily with Celecoxib (30 mg/kg body weight, s.c.), and five animals (Control) with the equivalent amount of the CMC-based vehicle. Angiogenesis, microcirculation, and growth of A549 tumors were analyzed by means of intravital microscopy. Apoptosis was quantified using the TUNEL assay. RESULTS: Treatment with Celecoxib reduced both microvessel density and tumor growth. TUNEL reaction showed an increase in apoptotic cell death of tumor cells after treatment with Celecoxib as compared to Controls. CONCLUSION: Celecoxib is a potent inhibitor of tumor growth of secondary bone tumors in vivo which can be explained by its anti-angiogenic and pro-apoptotic effects. The results indicate that a combination of established therapy regimes with Cox-2 inhibition represents a possible application for the treatment of bone metastases.

Effects of a non-selective COX inhibitor and selective COX-2 inhibitors on contractility of human and porcine ureters in vitro and in vivo

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Anti-inflammatory drugs are used in the treatment of acute renal colic. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of selective COX-2 inhibitors and the non-selective COX inhibitor diclofenac on contractility of human and porcine ureters in vitro and in vivo, respectively. COX-1 and COX-2 receptors were identified in human ureter and kidney. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: Human ureter samples were used alongside an in vivo pig model with or without partial ureteral obstruction. COX-1 and COX-2 receptors were located in human ureters by immunohistochemistry. KEY RESULTS: Diclofenac and valdecoxib significantly decreased the amplitude of electrically-stimulated contractions in human ureters in vitro, the maximal effect (Vmax) being 120 and 14%, respectively. Valdecoxib was more potent in proximal specimens of human ureter (EC50=7.3 x 10(-11) M) than in distal specimens (EC50=7.4 x 10(-10) M), and the Vmax was more marked in distal specimens (22.5%) than in proximal specimens (8.0%) in vitro. In the in vivo pig model, parecoxib, when compared to the effect of its solvent, significantly decreased the maximal amplitude of contractions (Amax) in non-obstructed ureters but not in obstructed ureters. Diclofenac had no effect on spontaneous contractions of porcine ureter in vivo. COX-1 and COX-2 receptors were found to be expressed in proximal and distal human ureter and in tubulus epithelia of the kidney. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Selective COX-2 inhibitors decrease the contractility of non-obstructed, but not obstructed, ureters of the pig in vivo, but have a minimal effect on electrically-induced contractions of human ureters in vitro.