Impact of age and comorbidities on long-term survival of patients with high-risk prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy: a multi-institutional competing-risks analysis

Survival after surgical treatment using competing-risk analysis has been previously examined in patients with prostate cancer (PCa). However, the combined effect of age and comorbidities has not been assessed in patients with high-risk PCa who might have heterogeneous rates of competing mortality despite the presence of aggressive disease.

Influence of noninjecting and injecting drug use on mortality, retention in the cohort, and antiretroviral therapy, in participants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES We studied the influence of noninjecting and injecting drug use on mortality, dropout rate, and the course of antiretroviral therapy (ART), in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). METHODS Cohort participants, registered prior to April 2007 and with at least one drug use questionnaire completed until May 2013, were categorized according to their self-reported drug use behaviour. The probabilities of death and dropout were separately analysed using multivariable competing risks proportional hazards regression models with mutual correction for the other endpoint. Furthermore, we describe the influence of drug use on the course of ART. RESULTS A total of 6529 participants (including 31% women) were followed during 31 215 person-years; 5.1% participants died; 10.5% were lost to follow-up. Among persons with homosexual or heterosexual HIV transmission, noninjecting drug use was associated with higher all-cause mortality [subhazard rate (SHR) 1.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-2.83], compared with no drug use. Also, mortality was increased among former injecting drug users (IDUs) who reported noninjecting drug use (SHR 2.34; 95% CI 1.49-3.69). Noninjecting drug use was associated with higher dropout rates. The mean proportion of time with suppressed viral replication was 82.2% in all participants, irrespective of ART status, and 91.2% in those on ART. Drug use lowered adherence, and increased rates of ART change and ART interruptions. Virological failure on ART was more frequent in participants who reported concomitant drug injections while on opiate substitution, and in current IDUs, but not among noninjecting drug users. CONCLUSIONS Noninjecting drug use and injecting drug use are modifiable risks for death, and they lower retention in a cohort and complicate ART.

Outcomes in patients waiting for antiretroviral treatment in the Free State Province, South Africa: prospective linkage study

Objective: In South Africa, many HIV-infected patients experience delays in accessing antiretroviral therapy (ART). We examined pretreatment mortality and access to treatment in patients waiting for ART. Design: Cohort of HIV-infected patients assessed for ART eligibility at 36 facilities participating in the Comprehensive HIV and AIDS Management (CHAM) program in the Free State Province. Methods: Proportion of patients initiating ART, pre-ART mortality and risk factors associated with these outcomes were estimated using competing risks survival analysis. Results: Forty-four thousand, eight hundred and forty-four patients enrolled in CHAM between May 2004 and December 2007, of whom 22 083 (49.2%) were eligible for ART; pre-ART mortality was 53.2 per 100 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 51.8–54.7]. Median CD4 cell count at eligibility increased from 87 cells/ml in 2004 to 101 cells/ml in 2007. Two years after eligibility an estimated 67.7% (67.1–68.4%) of patients had started ART, and 26.2% (25.6–26.9%) died before starting ART. Among patients with CD4 cell counts below 25 cells/ml at eligibility, 48% died before ART and 51% initiated ART. Men were less likely to start treatment and more likely to die than women. Patients in rural clinics or clinics with low staffing levels had lower rates of starting treatment and higher mortality compared with patients in urban/peri-urban clinics, or better staffed clinics. Conclusions: Mortality is high in eligible patients waiting for ART in the Free State Province. The most immunocompromised patients had the lowest probability of starting ART and the highest risk of pre-ART death. Prioritization of these patients should reduce waiting times and pre-ART mortality.

Extracapsular tumor spread and the risk of local, axillary and supraclavicular recurrence in node-positive, premenopausal patients with breast cancer

BACKGROUND: Extracapsular tumor spread (ECS) has been identified as a possible risk factor for breast cancer recurrence, but controversy exists regarding its role in decision making for regional radiotherapy. This study evaluates ECS as a predictor of local, axillary, and supraclavicular recurrence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial VI accrued 1475 eligible pre- and perimenopausal women with node-positive breast cancer who were randomly assigned to receive three to nine courses of classical combination chemotherapy with cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil. ECS status was determined retrospectively in 933 patients based on review of pathology reports. Cumulative incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using methods for competing risks analysis. Adjustment factors included treatment group and baseline patient and tumor characteristics. The median follow-up was 14 years. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, ECS was significantly associated with supraclavicular recurrence (HR = 1.96; 95% confidence interval 1.23-3.13; P = 0.005). HRs for local and axillary recurrence were 1.38 (P = 0.06) and 1.81 (P = 0.11), respectively. Following adjustment for number of lymph node metastases and other baseline prognostic factors, ECS was not significantly associated with any of the three recurrence types studied. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the decision for additional regional radiotherapy should not be based solely on the presence of ECS.

Somatostatin-based radiopeptide therapy with [177Lu-DOTA]-TOC versus [90Y-DOTA]-TOC in neuroendocrine tumours

PURPOSE Somatostatin-based radiopeptide treatment is generally performed using the β-emitting radionuclides (90)Y or (177)Lu. The present study aimed at comparing benefits and harms of both therapeutic approaches. METHODS In a comparative cohort study, patients with advanced neuroendocrine tumours underwent repeated cycles of [(90)Y-DOTA]-TOC or [(177)Lu-DOTA]-TOC until progression of disease or permanent adverse events. Multivariable Cox regression and competing risks regression were employed to examine predictors of survival and adverse events for both treatment groups. RESULTS Overall, 910 patients underwent 1,804 cycles of [(90)Y-DOTA]-TOC and 141 patients underwent 259 cycles of [(177)Lu-DOTA]-TOC. The median survival after [(177)Lu-DOTA]-TOC and after [(90)Y-DOTA]-TOC was comparable (45.5 months versus 35.9 months, hazard ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.63-1.30, p = 0.49). Subgroup analyses revealed a significantly longer survival for [(177)Lu-DOTA]-TOC over [(90)Y-DOTA]-TOC in patients with low tumour uptake, solitary lesions and extra-hepatic lesions. The rate of severe transient haematotoxicities was lower after [(177)Lu-DOTA]-TOC treatment (1.4 vs 10.1%, p = 0.001), while the rate of severe permanent renal toxicities was similar in both treatment groups (9.2 vs 7.8%, p = 0.32). CONCLUSION The present results revealed no difference in median overall survival after [(177)Lu-DOTA]-TOC and [(90)Y-DOTA]-TOC. Furthermore, [(177)Lu-DOTA]-TOC was less haematotoxic than [(90)Y-DOTA]-TOC.

Treatment modalities for T1N0 esophageal cancers: a comparative analysis of local therapy versus surgical resection

BACKGROUND To investigate the role of nonsurgical treatment for early-stage esophageal cancer, we compared the outcomes of local therapy to esophagectomy, using a large, national database. METHODS Five-year cancer-specific and overall survival (OS) of patients, with T1N0M0 squamous cell or adenocarcinoma of the mid or distal esophagus treated with either surgery or local therapy, with ablative and/or excision techniques, in the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results cancer registry from 1998 to 2008, were compared using the Kaplan-Meier approach, and multivariable and propensity-score adjusted Cox proportional hazard, and competing risk models. RESULTS Of 1458 patients with T1N0 esophageal cancer, 1204 (83%) had surgery and 254 (17%) had local therapy only. The use of local therapy increased significantly from 8.1% in 1998 to 24.1% in 2008 (p < 0.001). The 5-year OS after local excisional therapy and surgery was not significantly different (55.5% versus 64.1% respectively, p = 0.07), and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) also did not differ (81.7% versus 75.8%, p = 0.10). However, after propensity-score adjustment, CSS was better for patients who underwent local therapy compared with those who underwent surgery (hazard ratio: 0.46, 95% confidence interval: 0.27-0.77, p = 0.003), whereas OS remained similar. CONCLUSION The use of local therapy for T1N0 esophageal cancers increased significantly from 1998 to 2008. Compared with those treated with esophagectomy, patients treated with local therapy had similar OS but improved CSS, indicating a higher chance of dying from other causes. Further studies are needed to confirm the oncologic efficacy of local therapy when used in patients whose lifespans are not limited by conditions other than esophageal cancer.

Natural history of surgically treated high-risk prostate cancer

BACKGROUND No data exist on the patterns of biochemical recurrence (BCR) and their effect on survival in patients with high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) treated with surgery. The aim of our investigation was to evaluate the natural history of PCa in patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) alone. MATERIALS AND METHODS Overall, 2,065 patients with high-risk PCa treated with RP at 7 tertiary referral centers between 1991 and 2011 were identified. First, we calculated the probability of experiencing BCR after surgery. Particularly, we relied on conditional survival estimates for BCR after RP. Competing-risks regression analyses were then used to evaluate the effect of time to BCR on the risk of cancer-specific mortality (CSM). RESULTS Median follow-up was 70 months. Overall, the 5-year BCR-free survival rate was 55.2%. Given the BCR-free survivorship at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years, the BCR-free survival rates improved by+7.6%,+4.1%,+4.8%,+3.2%, and+3.7%, respectively. Overall, the 10-year CSM rate was 14.8%. When patients were stratified according to time to BCR, patients experiencing BCR within 36 months from surgery had higher 10-year CSM rates compared with those experiencing late BCR (19.1% vs. 4.4%; P<0.001). At multivariate analyses, time to BCR represented an independent predictor of CSM (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Increasing time from surgery is associated with a reduction of the risk of subsequent BCR. Additionally, time to BCR represents a predictor of CSM in these patients. These results might help provide clinicians with better follow-up strategies and more aggressive treatments for early BCR.

Age in antiretroviral therapy programmes in South Africa: a retrospective, multicentre, observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND As access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) expands, increasing numbers of older patients will start treatment and need specialised long-term care. However, the effect of age in ART programmes in resource-constrained settings is poorly understood. The HIV epidemic is ageing rapidly and South Africa has one of the highest HIV population prevalences worldwide. We explored the effect of age on mortality of patients on ART in South Africa and whether this effect is mediated by baseline immunological status. METHODS In this retrospective cohort analysis, we studied HIV-positive patients aged 16-80 years who started ART for the first time in six large South African cohorts of the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa collaboration, in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, and Western Cape (two primary care clinics, three hospitals, and a large rural cohort). The primary outcome was mortality. We ascertained patients' vital status through linkage to the National Population Register. We used inverse probability weighting to correct mortality for loss to follow-up. We estimated mortality using Cox's proportional hazards and competing risks regression. We tested the interaction between baseline CD4 cell count and age. FINDINGS Between Jan 1, 2004, and Dec 31, 2013, 84,078 eligible adults started ART. Of these, we followed up 83,566 patients for 174,640 patient-years. 8% (1817 of 23,258) of patients aged 16-29 years died compared with 19% (93 of 492) of patients aged 65 years or older. The age adjusted mortality hazard ratio was 2·52 (95% CI 2·01-3·17) for people aged 65 years or older compared with those 16-29 years of age. In patients starting ART with a CD4 count of less than 50 cells per μL, the adjusted mortality hazard ratio was 2·52 (2·04-3·11) for people aged 50 years or older compared with those 16-39 years old. Mortality was highest in patients with CD4 counts of less than 50 cells per μL, and 15% (1103 of 7295) of all patients aged 50 years or older starting ART were in this group. The proportion of patients aged 50 years or older enrolling in ART increased with successive years, from 6% (290 of 4999) in 2004 to 10% (961 of 9657) in 2012-13, comprising 9% of total enrolment (7295 of 83 566). At the end of the study, 6304 (14%) of 44,909 patients still alive and in care were aged 50 years or older. INTERPRETATION Health services need reorientation towards HIV diagnosis and starting of ART in older individuals. Policies are needed for long-term care of older people with HIV. FUNDING National Institutes of Health (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases), US Agency for International Development, and South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis.

Retention in care of HIV-infected pregnant and lactating women starting art under Option B+ in rural Mozambique.

OBJECTIVE In 2013, Mozambique adopted Option B+, universal lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all pregnant and lactating women, as national strategy for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. We analyzed retention in care of pregnant and lactating women starting Option B+ in rural northern Mozambique. METHODS We compared ART outcomes in pregnant ("B+pregnant"), lactating ("B+lactating") and non-pregnant-non-lactating women of childbearing age starting ART after clinical and/or immunological criteria ("own health") between July 2013 and June 2014. Lost to follow-up was defined as no contact >180 days after the last visit. Multivariable competing risk models were adjusted for type of facility (type 1 vs. peripheral type 2 health center), age, WHO stage and time from HIV diagnosis to ART. RESULTS Over 333 person-years of follow-up (of 243 "B+pregnant", 65″B+lactating" and 317 "own health" women), 3.7% of women died and 48.5% were lost to follow-up. "B+pregnant" and "B+lactating" women were more likely to be lost in the first year (57% vs. 56.9% vs. 31.6%; p<0.001) and to have no follow-up after the first visit (42.4% vs. 29.2% vs. 16.4%; p<0.001) than "own health" women. In adjusted analyses, risk of being lost to follow-up was higher in "B+pregnant" (adjusted subhazard ratio [asHR]: 2.77; 95% CI: 2.18-3.50; p<0.001) and "B+lactating" (asHR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.37-2.74; p<0.001). Type 2 health center was the only additional significant risk factor for loss to follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Retaining pregnant and lactating women in option B+ ART was poor; losses to follow-up were mainly early. The success of Option B+ for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in rural settings with weak health systems will depend on specific improvements in counseling and retention measures, especially at the beginning of treatment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Thrombosis during pregnancy: Risks, prevention, and treatment for mother and fetus--harvesting the power of omic technology, biomarkers and in vitro or in vivo models to facilitate the treatment of thrombosis

Maternal thromboembolism and a spectrum of placenta-mediated complications including the pre-eclampsia syndromes, fetal growth restriction, fetal loss, and abruption manifest a shared etiopathogenesis and predisposing risk factors. Furthermore, these maternal and fetal complications are often linked to subsequent maternal health consequences that comprise the metabolic syndrome, namely, thromboembolism, chronic hypertension, and type II diabetes. Traditionally, several lines of evidence have linked vasoconstriction, excessive thrombosis and inflammation, and impaired trophoblast invasion at the uteroplacental interface as hallmark features of the placental complications. "Omic" technologies and biomarker development have been largely based upon advances in vascular biology, improved understanding of the molecular basis and biochemical pathways responsible for the clinically relevant diseases, and increasingly robust large cohort and/or registry based studies. Advances in understanding of innate and adaptive immunity appear to play an important role in several pregnancy complications. Strategies aimed at improving prediction of these pregnancy complications are often incorporating hemodynamic blood flow data using non-invasive imaging technologies of the utero-placental and maternal circulations early in pregnancy. Some evidence suggests that a multiple marker approach will yield the best performing prediction tools, which may then in turn offer the possibility of early intervention to prevent or ameliorate these pregnancy complications. Prediction of maternal cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular consequences following pregnancy represents an important area of future research, which may have significant public health consequences not only for cardiovascular disease, but also for a variety of other disorders, such as autoimmune and neurodegenerative diseases.

Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

Fetal gene therapy: opportunities and risks

Advances in human prenatal medicine and molecular genetics have allowed the diagnosis of many genetic diseases early in gestation. In-utero transplantation of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) has been successfully used as a therapy in different animal models and recently also in human fetuses. Unfortunately, clinical success of this novel treatment is limited by the lack of donor cell engraftment in non-immunocompromised hosts and is thus restricted to diseases where the fetus is affected by severe immunodeficiency. Gene therapy using genetically modified autologous HSC circumvents allogeneic HLA barriers and constitutes one of the most promising new approaches to correct genetic deficits in the fetus. Recent developments of strategies to overcome failure of efficient transduction of quiescent hematopoietic cells include the use of new vector constructs and transduction protocols. These improvements open new perspectives for gene therapy in general and for prenatal gene transfer in particular. The fetus may be especially susceptible for successful gene therapy due to the immunologic naiveté of the immature hematopoietic system during gestation, precluding an immune reaction towards the transgene. Ethical issues, in particular those regarding treatment safety, must be taken into account before clinical trials with fetal gene therapy in human pregnancies can be initiated.

Cost-effectiveness of different strategies to monitor adults on antiretroviral treatment: a combined analysis of three mathematical models

Background: WHO's 2013 revisions to its Consolidated Guidelines on antiretroviral drugs recommend routine viral load monitoring, rather than clinical or immunological monitoring, as the preferred monitoring approach on the basis of clinical evidence. However, HIV programmes in resource-limited settings require guidance on the most cost-effective use of resources in view of other competing priorities such as expansion of antiretroviral therapy coverage. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of alternative patient monitoring strategies. Methods: We evaluated a range of monitoring strategies, including clinical, CD4 cell count, and viral load monitoring, alone and together, at different frequencies and with different criteria for switching to second-line therapies. We used three independently constructed and validated models simultaneously. We estimated costs on the basis of resource use projected in the models and associated unit costs; we quantified impact as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. We compared alternatives using incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. Findings: All models show that clinical monitoring delivers significant benefit compared with a hypothetical baseline scenario with no monitoring or switching. Regular CD4 cell count monitoring confers a benefit over clinical monitoring alone, at an incremental cost that makes it affordable in more settings than viral load monitoring, which is currently more expensive. Viral load monitoring without CD4 cell count every 6—12 months provides the greatest reductions in morbidity and mortality, but incurs a high cost per DALY averted, resulting in lost opportunities to generate health gains if implemented instead of increasing antiretroviral therapy coverage or expanding antiretroviral therapy eligibility. Interpretation: The priority for HIV programmes should be to expand antiretroviral therapy coverage, firstly at CD4 cell count lower than 350 cells per μL, and then at a CD4 cell count lower than 500 cells per μL, using lower-cost clinical or CD4 monitoring. At current costs, viral load monitoring should be considered only after high antiretroviral therapy coverage has been achieved. Point-of-care technologies and other factors reducing costs might make viral load monitoring more affordable in future. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO.

Matrix models for quantifying competitive intransitivity from species abundance data

In a network of competing species, a competitive intransitivity occurs when the ranking of competitive abilities does not follow a linear hierarchy (A > B > C but C > A). A variety of mathematical models suggests that intransitive networks can prevent or slow down competitive exclusion and maintain biodiversity by enhancing species coexistence. However, it has been difficult to assess empirically the relative importance of intransitive competition because a large number of pairwise species competition experiments are needed to construct a competition matrix that is used to parameterize existing models. Here we introduce a statistical framework for evaluating the contribution of intransitivity to community structure using species abundance matrices that are commonly generated from replicated sampling of species assemblages. We provide metrics and analytical methods for using abundance matrices to estimate species competition and patch transition matrices by using reverse-engineering and a colonization-competition model. These matrices provide complementary metrics to estimate the degree of intransitivity in the competition network of the sampled communities. Benchmark tests reveal that the proposed methods could successfully detect intransitive competition networks, even in the absence of direct measures of pairwise competitive strength. To illustrate the approach, we analyzed patterns of abundance and biomass of five species of necrophagous Diptera and eight species of their hymenopteran parasitoids that co-occur in beech forests in Germany. We found evidence for a strong competitive hierarchy within communities of flies and parasitoids. However, for parasitoids, there was a tendency towards increasing intransitivity in higher weight classes, which represented larger resource patches. These tests provide novel methods for empirically estimating the degree of intransitivity in competitive networks from observational datasets. They can be applied to experimental measures of pairwise species interactions, as well as to spatio-temporal samples of assemblages in homogenous environments or environmental gradients.