IMILAST: A community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset - the period 1989-2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.

Sexual health of ethnic minority MSM in Britain (MESH project): design and methods

Background Men who have sex with men (MSM) remain the group most at risk of acquiring HIV infection in Britain. HIV prevalence appears to vary widely between MSM from different ethnic minority groups in this country for reasons that are not fully understood. The aim of the MESH project was to examine in detail the sexual health of ethnic minority MSM living in Britain. Methods/Design The main objectives of the MESH project were to explore among ethnic minority MSM living in Britain: (i) sexual risk behaviour and HIV prevalence; (ii) their experience of stigma and discrimination; (iii) disclosure of sexuality; (iv) use of, and satisfaction with sexual health services; (v) the extent to which sexual health services (for treatment and prevention) are aware of the needs of ethnic minority MSM. The research was conducted between 2006 and 2008 in four national samples: (i) ethnic minority MSM living in Britain; (ii) a comparison group of white British MSM living in Britain; (iii) NHS sexual health clinic staff in 15 British towns and cities with significant ethnic minority communities and; (iv) sexual health promotion/HIV prevention service providers. We also recruited men from two "key migrant" groups living in Britain: MSM born in Central or Eastern Europe and MSM born in Central or South America. Internet-based quantitative and qualitative research methods were used. Ethnic minority MSM were recruited through advertisements on websites, in community venues, via informal networks and in sexual health clinics. White and "key migrant" MSM were recruited mostly through Gaydar, one of the most popular dating sites used by gay men in Britain. MSM who agreed to take part completed a questionnaire online. Ethnic minority MSM who completed the online questionnaire were asked if they would be willing to take part in an online qualitative interview using email. Service providers were identified through the British Association of Sexual Health and HIV (BASHH) and the Terrence Higgins Trust (THT) CHAPS partnerships. Staff who agreed to take part were asked to complete a questionnaire online. The online survey was completed by 1241 ethnic minority MSM, 416 men born in South and Central America or Central and Eastern Europe, and 13,717 white British MSM; 67 ethnic minority MSM took part in the online qualitative interview. In addition 364 people working in sexual health clinics and 124 health promotion workers from around Britain completed an online questionnaire. Discussion The findings from this study will improve our understanding of the sexual health and needs of ethnic minority MSM in Britain.

Vulvovaginal-swab or first-catch urine specimen to detect Chlamydia trachomatis in women in a community setting?

Screening for chlamydia in women is widely recommended. We evaluated the performance of two nucleic acid amplification tests for detecting Chlamydia trachomatis in self-collected vulvovaginal-swab and first-catch urine specimens from women in a community setting and a strategy for optimizing the sensitivity of an amplified enzyme immunoassay on vulvovaginal-swab specimens. We tested 2,745 paired vulvovaginal-swab and urine specimens by PCR (Roche Cobas) or strand displacement amplification (SDA; Becton Dickinson). There were 146 women infected with chlamydia. The assays detected 97.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 93.1 to 99.2%) of infected patients with vulvovaginal-swab specimens and 91.8% (86.1 to 95.7%) with urine specimens. We tested 2,749 vulvovaginal-swab specimens with both a nucleic acid amplification test and a polymer conjugate-enhanced enzyme immunoassay with negative-gray-zone testing. The relative sensitivities obtained after retesting specimens in the negative gray zone were 74.3% (95% CI, 62.8 to 83.8%) with PCR and 58.3% (95% CI, 46.1 to 69.8%) with SDA. In community settings, both vulvovaginal-swab and first-catch urine specimens from women are suitable substrates for nucleic acid amplification tests, but enzyme immunoassays, even after negative-gray-zone testing, should not be used in screening programs.

Impact of Helicobacter pylori eradication on dyspepsia, health resource use, and quality of life in the Bristol helicobacter project: randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of a community based Helicobacter pylori screening and eradication programme on the incidence of dyspepsia, resource use, and quality of life, including a cost consequences analysis. DESIGN: H pylori screening programme followed by randomised placebo controlled trial of eradication. SETTING: Seven general practices in southwest England. PARTICIPANTS: 10,537 unselected people aged 20-59 years were screened for H pylori infection (13C urea breath test); 1558 of the 1636 participants who tested positive were randomised to H pylori eradication treatment or placebo, and 1539 (99%) were followed up for two years. INTERVENTION: Ranitidine bismuth citrate 400 mg and clarithromycin 500 mg twice daily for two weeks or placebo. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary care consultation rates for dyspepsia (defined as epigastric pain) two years after randomisation, with secondary outcomes of dyspepsia symptoms, resource use, NHS costs, and quality of life. RESULTS: In the eradication group, 35% fewer participants consulted for dyspepsia over two years compared with the placebo group (55/787 v 78/771; odds ratio 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.94; P = 0.021; number needed to treat 30) and 29% fewer participants had regular symptoms (odds ratio 0.71, 0.56 to 0.90; P = 0.05). NHS costs were 84.70 pounds sterling (74.90 pounds sterling to 93.91 pounds sterling) greater per participant in the eradication group over two years, of which 83.40 pounds sterling (146 dollars; 121 euro) was the cost of eradication treatment. No difference in quality of life existed between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Community screening and eradication of H pylori is feasible in the general population and led to significant reductions in the number of people who consulted for dyspepsia and had symptoms two years after treatment. These benefits have to be balanced against the costs of eradication treatment, so a targeted eradication strategy in dyspeptic patients may be preferable.

Real-time quantitative PCR to determine chlamydial load in men and women in a community setting

We used a PCR method to quantify the loads of Chlamydia trachomatis organisms in self-collected urine and vulvovaginal swab (VVS) samples from 93 women and 30 men participating in the Chlamydia Screening Studies Project, a community-based study of individuals not seeking health care. For women, self-collected VVS had a higher mean chlamydial load (10,405 organisms/ml; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 5,167 to 21,163 organisms/ml) than did first-void urines (FVU) (503 organisms/ml; 95% CI, 250 to 1,022 organisms/ml; P < 0.001). Chlamydial loads in female and male self-collected FVU specimens were similar (P = 0.634). The mean chlamydial load in FVU specimens decreased with increasing age in females and males. There was no strong statistical evidence of differences in chlamydial load in repeat male and female FVU specimens taken when patients attended for treatment a median of 23.5 (range, 14 to 62) and 28 (range, 13 to 132) days later, respectively, or in VVS taken a median of 35 (range, 14 to 217) days later. In this study, chlamydial load values for infected persons in the community who were not seeking treatment were lower than those published in other studies involving symptomatic patients attending clinical settings. This might have implications for estimates of the infectiousness of chlamydia. The results of this study provide a scientific rationale for preferring VVS to FVU specimens from women.

The lifestyle of our kids (LOOK) project: outline of methods

This methods paper outlines the overall design of a community-based multidisciplinary longitudinal study with the intent to stimulate interest and communication from scientists and practitioners studying the role of physical activity in preventive medicine. In adults, lack of regular exercise is a major risk factor in the development of chronic degenerative diseases and is a major contributor to obesity, and now we have evidence that many of our children are not sufficiently active to prevent early symptoms of chronic disease. The lifestyle of our kids (LOOK) study investigates how early physical activity contributes to health and development, utilizing a longitudinal design and a cohort of eight hundred and thirty 7-8-year-old (grade 2) school children followed to age 11-12 years (grade 6), their average family income being very close to that of Australia. We will test two hypotheses, that (a) the quantity and quality of physical activity undertaken by primary school children will influence their psychological and physical health and development; (b) compared with existing practices in primary schools, a physical education program administered by visiting specialists will enhance health and development, and lead to a more positive perception of physical activity. To test the first hypothesis we will monitor all children longitudinally over the 4 years. To test the second we will involve an intervention group of 430 children who receive two 50min physical education classes every week from visiting specialists and a control group of 400 who continue with their usual primary school physical education with their class-room teachers. At the end of grades 2, 4, and 6 we will measure several areas of health and development including blood risk factors for chronic disease, cardiovascular structure and function, physical fitness, psychological characteristics and perceptions of physical activity, bone structure and strength, motor control, body composition, nutritional intake, influence of teachers and family, and academic performance.

The European Modern Pollen Database (EMPD) project

Modern pollen samples provide an invaluable research tool for helping to interpret the quaternary fossil pollen record, allowing investigation of the relationship between pollen as the proxy and the environmental parameters such as vegetation, land-use, and climate that the pollen proxy represents. The European Modern Pollen Database (EMPD) is a new initiative within the European Pollen Database (EPD) to establish a publicly accessible repository of modern (surface sample) pollen data. This new database will complement the EPD, which at present holds only fossil sedimentary pollen data. The EMPD is freely available online to the scientific community and currently has information on almost 5,000 pollen samples from throughout the Euro-Siberian and Mediterranean regions, contributed by over 40 individuals and research groups. Here we describe how the EMPD was constructed, the various tables and their fields, problems and errors, quality controls, and continuing efforts to improve the available data.

Mobile competence network for community health workers in rural Myanmar: a supportive information system that facilitates the improvement of health services.

The goal of this project is the development of international cooperation for fostering solutions to provide better access to basic healthcare services.

Adapting to climate change through sustainable land management: experiences of a pilot project in Tajikistan

Tajikistan is particularly exposed to the risks of climate change. Its widely degraded landscapes are badly prepared to cope with changes in precipitation patterns, increased temperatures, droughts, and the spread of pests and disease. Sustainable land management (SLM) provides a “basket of opportunities” to address these challenges, particularly for increasing land productivity, improving livelihoods, and protecting ecosystems. Within the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) in Tajikistan 70 SLM technologies and approaches on how to implement SLM were documented with the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT ) tools in 2011. For this purpose a climate change adaptation module was developed and tested in order to enhance the understanding about climate change resilience of SLM practices and community workshops conducted to on adaptation mechanisms by rural communities in Tajikistan. The analysis came up with four guiding principles for applying SLM for adapting to climate change: 1. Diversification of land use technologies and farm incomes; 2. Intensification of use of natural resources; 3. Expansion of highly productive land use technologies; 4. Protection of land and livelihoods from extreme weather events. Furthermore, SLM must be up-scaled from isolated plots to entire zones or landscapes and the project developed the concept of three concentric villages zones, the in-, near- and off-village zones. Land users, advisors, and decision- and policy makers face the task of finding management practices that best suit site-specific conditions. This task is most efficiently addressed in collaborative effort, and building up and managing a respective knowledge platform.

Capacity building in the use of geospatial tools for natural resource management in Tajikistan: Inception report BNWPP project

The Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) has been contracted by the World Bank Group to conduct a program on capacity development in use of geospatial tools for natural resource management in Tajikistan. The program aimed to help improving natural resource management by fostering the use of geospatial tools among governmental and non-governmental institutions in Tajikistan. For this purpose a database including a Geographic Information System (GIS) has been prepared, which combines spatial data on various sectors for case study analysis related to the Community Agriculture and Watershed Management Project (CAWMP). The inception report is based on the findings resulting from the Swiss Consultant Trust Fund (CTF) financed project, specifically on the experiences from the awareness creation and training workshop conducted in Dushanbe in November 2007 and the analysis of historical land degradation trends carried out for the four CAWMP watersheds. Furthermore, also recommendations from the inception mission of CDE to Tajikistan (5-20 August 2007) and the inception report for the Swiss CTF support were considered. The inception report for the BNWPP project (The Bank-Netherlands Water Partnership Program) discusses the following project relevant issues: (1) Preliminary list of additional data layers, types of data analysis, and audiences to be covered by BNWPP grant (2) Assessing skills and equipment already available within Tajikistan, and implications for training program and specific equipment procurement plans (3) Updated detailed schedule and plans for all activities to be financed by BNWPP grant, and (4) Proposed list of contents for the final report and web-based presentations.