Prognosis of patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: a collaborative analysis of scale-up programmes

Background Prognostic models have been developed for patients infected with HIV-1 who start combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-income countries, but not for patients in sub-Saharan Africa. We developed two prognostic models to estimate the probability of death in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We analysed data for adult patients who started ART in four scale-up programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, and Malawi from 2004 to 2007. Patients lost to follow-up in the first year were excluded. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4 cell count, clinical stage, bodyweight, age, and sex (CD4 count model); and one that replaced CD4 cell count with total lymphocyte count and severity of anaemia (total lymphocyte and haemoglobin model), because CD4 cell count is not routinely measured in many African ART programmes. Death from all causes in the first year of ART was the primary outcome. Findings 912 (8·2%) of 11 153 patients died in the first year of ART. 822 patients were lost to follow-up and not included in the main analysis; 10 331 patients were analysed. Mortality was strongly associated with high baseline CD4 cell count (≥200 cells per μL vs <25; adjusted hazard ratio 0·21, 95% CI 0·17–0·27), WHO clinical stage (stages III–IV vs I–II; 3·45, 2·43–4·90), bodyweight (≥60 kg vs <45 kg; 0·23, 0·18–0·30), and anaemia status (none vs severe: 0·27, 0·20–0·36). Other independent risk factors for mortality were low total lymphocyte count, advanced age, and male sex. Probability of death at 1 year ranged from 0·9% (95% CI 0·6–1·4) to 52·5% (43·8–61·7) with the CD4 model, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·4) to 59·6% (48·2–71·4) with the total lymphocyte and haemoglobin model. Both models accurately predict early mortality in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa compared with observed data. Interpretation Prognostic models should be used to counsel patients, plan health services, and predict outcomes for patients with HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa.

Comparison of biological stability and metabolism of CCK2 receptor targeting peptides, a collaborative project under COST BM0607

Stability of radiolabelled cholecystokinin 2 (CCK2) receptor targeting peptides has been a major limitation in the use of such radiopharmaceuticals especially for targeted radionuclide therapy applications, e.g. for treatment of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). The purpose of this study was to compare the in vitro stability of a series of peptides binding to the CCK2 receptor [selected as part of the COST Action on Targeted Radionuclide Therapy (BM0607)] and to identify major cleavage sites.

Comparison of the binding and internalization properties of 12 DOTA-coupled and ¹¹¹In-labelled CCK2/gastrin receptor binding peptides: a collaborative project under COST Action BM0607

Specific overexpression of cholecystokinin 2 (CCK2)/gastrin receptors has been demonstrated in several tumours of neuroendocrine origin. In some of these cancer types, such as medullary thyroid cancer (MTC), a sensitive diagnostic modality is still unavailable and therapeutic options for inoperable lesions are needed. Peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) may be a viable therapeutic strategy in the management of these patients. Several CCK2R-targeted radiopharmaceuticals have been described in recent years. As part of the European Union COST Action BM0607 we studied the in vitro and in vivo characteristics of 12 1,4,7,10-tetraazacyclododecane-1,4,7,10-tetraacetic acid (DOTA)-conjugated CCK2R binding peptides. In the present study, we analysed binding and internalization characteristics. Stability, biodistribution and imaging studies have been performed in parallel by other centres involved in the project.

Structural and procedural properties important in promoting bio-enterprises as alternative livelihoods to pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods

Alternative livelihoods to pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods are increasingly gaining attention in rural development but few empirical evidence exist on how to go about supporting such initiatives. As pastoral and agro-pastoral production conditions change due to various factors including market conditions, climate variability and change, pastoralists and agro-pastoralists are increasingly faced with the challenge of finding alternative livelihoods. Bio-enterprises offer such alternatives or complementary activities for rural actors to adapt to changing socio-ecological conditions. This study examines the roles of bio-enterprise initiatives from a livelihood perspective and identifies the features important for such initiatives to reduce poverty and improve the adaptive capacities of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. It draws on four different bio-enterprise initiatives on agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihoods and on improved natural resources management (NRM) in the drylands of Kenya. Data were collected through interviews, focus group discussions, informal discussions and the study of reports. Results shows among other factors that diversification into enterprises requires cooperation among the stakeholders with their varying experiences in development, NRM and business development. Other factors such as sustained financial support, capacity development to survive the market introduction phase, as well as quantity and quality of the product, are critical. Mentoring proved to be a driver of success in some initiatives.

Tenofovir in second-line ART in Zambia and South Africa: collaborative analysis of cohort studies

Tenofovir (TDF) is increasingly used in second-line antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa. We compared outcomes of second-line ART containing and not containing TDF in cohort studies from Zambia and the Republic of South Africa (RSA).

HIV treatment response and prognosis in Europe and North America in the first decade of highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis

BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for the treatment of HIV infection was introduced a decade ago. We aimed to examine trends in the characteristics of patients starting HAART in Europe and North America, and their treatment response and short-term prognosis. METHODS: We analysed data from 22,217 treatment-naive HIV-1-infected adults who had started HAART and were followed up in one of 12 cohort studies. The probability of reaching 500 or less HIV-1 RNA copies per mL by 6 months, and the change in CD4 cell counts, were analysed for patients starting HAART in 1995-96, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002-03. The primary endpoints were the hazard ratios for AIDS and for death from all causes in the first year of HAART, which were estimated using Cox regression. RESULTS: The proportion of heterosexually infected patients increased from 20% in 1995-96 to 47% in 2002-03, and the proportion of women from 16% to 32%. The median CD4 cell count when starting HAART increased from 170 cells per muL in 1995-96 to 269 cells per muL in 1998 but then decreased to around 200 cells per muL. In 1995-96, 58% achieved HIV-1 RNA of 500 copies per mL or less by 6 months compared with 83% in 2002-03. Compared with 1998, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS were 1.07 (95% CI 0.84-1.36) in 1995-96 and 1.35 (1.06-1.71) in 2002-03. Corresponding figures for death were 0.87 (0.56-1.36) and 0.96 (0.61-1.51). INTERPRETATION: Virological response after starting HAART improved over calendar years, but such improvement has not translated into a decrease in mortality.

Rates of disease progression according to initial highly active antiretroviral therapy regimen: a collaborative analysis of 12 prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND: No large clinical end-point trials have been conducted comparing regimens among human immunodeficiency virus type 1-positive persons starting antiretroviral therapy. We examined clinical progression according to initial regimen in the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration, which is based on 12 European and North American cohort studies. METHODS: We analyzed progression to death from any cause and to AIDS or death (AIDS/death), comparing efavirenz (EFV), nevirapine (NVP), nelfinavir, idinavir, ritonavir (RTV), RTV-boosted protease inhibitors (PIs), saquinavir, and abacavir. We also compared nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor pairs: zidovudine/lamivudine (AZT/3TC), stavudine (D4T)/3TC, D4T/didanosine (DDI), and others. RESULTS: A total of 17,666 treatment-naive patients, 55,622 person-years at risk, 1,617 new AIDS events, and 895 deaths were analyzed. Compared with EFV, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for AIDS/death was 1.28 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.60) for NVP, 1.31 (95% CI, 1.01-1.71) for RTV, and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.15-1.81) for RTV-boosted PIs. For death, the adjusted HR for NVP was 1.65 (95% CI, 1.16-2.36). The adjusted HR for death for D4T/3TC was 1.35 (95% CI, 1.14-1.59), compared with AZT/3TC. CONCLUSIONS: Outcomes may vary across initial regimens. Results are observational and may have been affected by bias due to unmeasured or residual confounding. There is a need for large, randomized, clinical end-point trials.