Impact of Holocene climate changes on alpine and treeline vegetation at Sanetsch Pass, Bernese Alps, Switzerland

In order to infer reactions of treeline and alpine vegetation to climatic change, past vegetation changes are reconstructed on the basis of pollen, macrofossil and charcoal analysis. The sampled sediment cores originate from the small pond Emines, located at the Sanetsch Pass (connecting the Valais and Bern, Switzerland) at an altitude of 2288 m a.s.l. Today's treeline is at ca. 2200 m a.s.l. in the area, though due to special pass (saddle) conditions it is locally depressed to ca. 2060 m a.s.l. Our results reveal that the area around Emines was covered by treeless alpine vegetation during most of the past 12,000 years. Single individuals of Betula, Larix decidua and possibly Pinus cembra occurred during the Holocene. Major centennial to millennial-scale responses of treeline vegetation to climatic changes are evident. However, alpine vegetation composition remained rather stable between 11,500 and 6000 cal. BP, showing that Holocene climatic changes of +/− 1 °C hardly influenced the local vegetation at Emines. The rapid warming of 3–4 °C at the Late Glacial/Holocene transition (11,600 cal. BP) caused significant altitudinal displacements of alpine species that were additionally affected by the rapid upward movement of trees and shrubs. Since the beginning of the Neolithic, vegetation changes at Sanetsch Pass resulted from a combination of climate change and human impact. Anthropogenic fire increase and land-use change combined with a natural change from subcontinental to more oceanic climate during the second half of the Holocene led to the disappearance of P. cembra in the study area, but favoured the occurrence of Picea abies and Alnus viridis. The mid- to late-Holocene decline of Abies alba was primarily a consequence of human impact, since this mesic species should have benefitted from a shift to more oceanic conditions. Future alpine vegetation changes will be a function of the amplitude and rapidity of global warming as well as human land use. Our results imply that alpine vegetation at our treeline pass site was never replaced by forests since the last ice-age. This may change in the future if anticipated climate change will induce upslope migration of trees. The results of this study emphasise the necessity of climate change mitigation in order to prevent biodiversity losses as a consequence of unprecedented community and species displacement in response to climatic change.

Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes

Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.

Impact of suborbital climate changes in the North Atlantic on ice sheet dynamics at the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

[1] Early and Mid-Pleistocene climate, ocean hydrography and ice sheet dynamics have been reconstructed using a high-resolution data set (planktonic and benthicδ18O time series, faunal-based sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions and ice-rafted debris (IRD)) record from a high-deposition-rate sedimentary succession recovered at the Gardar Drift formation in the subpolar North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Leg 306, Site U1314). Our sedimentary record spans from late in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 31 to MIS 19 (1069–779 ka). Different trends of the benthic and planktonic oxygen isotopes, SST and IRD records before and after MIS 25 (∼940 ka) evidence the large increase in Northern Hemisphere ice-volume, linked to the cyclicity change from the 41-kyr to the 100-kyr that occurred during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Beside longer glacial-interglacial (G-IG) variability, millennial-scale fluctuations were a pervasive feature across our study. Negative excursions in the benthicδ18O time series observed at the times of IRD events may be related to glacio-eustatic changes due to ice sheets retreats and/or to changes in deep hydrography. Time series analysis on surface water proxies (IRD, SST and planktonicδ18O) of the interval between MIS 31 to MIS 26 shows that the timing of these millennial-scale climate changes are related to half-precessional (10 kyr) components of the insolation forcing, which are interpreted as cross-equatorial heat transport toward high latitudes during both equinox insolation maxima at the equator.

Modelling the effects of land use and climate changes on hydrology in the Ursern Valley, Switzerland

While many studies have been conducted in mountainous catchments to examine the impact of climate change on hydrology, the interactions between climate changes and land use components have largely unknown impacts on hydrology in alpine regions. They need to be given special attention in order to devise possible strategies concerning general development in these regions. Thus, the main aim was to examine the impact of land use (i.e. bushland expansion) and climate changes (i.e. increase of temperature) on hydrology by model simulations. For this purpose, the physically based WaSiM-ETH model was applied to the catchment of Ursern Valley in the central Alps (191 km2) over the period of 1983−2005. Modelling results showed that the reduction of the mean monthly discharge during the summer period is due primarily to the retreat of snow discharge in time and secondarily to the reduction in the glacier surface area together with its retreat in time, rather than the increase in the evapotranspiration due to the expansion of the “green alder” on the expense of grassland. The significant decrease in summer discharge during July, August and September shows a change in the regime from b-glacio-nival to nivo-glacial. These changes are confirmed by the modeling results that attest to a temporal shift in snowmelt and glacier discharge towards earlier in the year: March, April and May for snowmelt and May and June for glacier discharge. It is expected that the yearly total discharge due to the land use changes will be reduced by 0.6% in the near future, whereas, it will be reduced by about 5% if climate change is also taken into account. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Temporal patterns in lacustrine stable isotopes as evidence for climate change during the late glacial in the Southern European Alps

We investigated oxygen and carbon isotopes of bulk carbonate and of benthic freshwater ostracods (Candona candida) in a sediment core of Lago Piccolo di Avigliana that was previously analyzed for pollen and loss-on-ignition, in order to reconstruct environmental changes during the late glacial and early Holocene. The depth-age relationship of the sediment core was established using 14 AMS C-14 dates and the Laacher See Tephra. While stable isotopes of bulk carbonates may have been affected by detrital input and, therefore, only indirectly reflect climatic changes, isotopes measured on ostracod shells provide unambiguous evidence for major environmental changes. Oxygen isotope ratios of ostracod shells (delta O-18(C)) increased by similar to 6 parts per thousand at the onset of the Bolling (similar to 14,650 cal BP) and were similar to 2 parts per thousand lower during the Younger Dryas (similar to 12,850 to 11,650 cal BP), indicating a temporal pattern of climate changes similar to the North Atlantic region. However, in contrast to records in that region, delta O-18(C) gradually decreased during the early Holocene, suggesting that compared to the Younger Dryas more humid conditions occurred and that the lake received gradually increasing input of O-18-depleted groundwater or river water.

Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia – fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys – in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.

Climate and soil attributes determine plant species turnover in global drylands

Aim Geographical, climatic and soil factors are major drivers of plant beta diversity, but their importance for dryland plant communities is poorly known. The aim of this study was to: (1) characterize patterns of beta diversity in global drylands; (2) detect common environmental drivers of beta diversity; and (3) test for thresholds in environmental conditions driving potential shifts in plant species composition. Location Global. Methods Beta diversity was quantified in 224 dryland plant communities from 22 geographical regions on all continents except Antarctica using four complementary measures: the percentage of singletons (species occurring at only one site); Whittaker's beta diversity, β(W); a directional beta diversity metric based on the correlation in species occurrences among spatially contiguous sites, β(R2); and a multivariate abundance-based metric, β(MV). We used linear modelling to quantify the relationships between these metrics of beta diversity and geographical, climatic and soil variables. Results Soil fertility and variability in temperature and rainfall, and to a lesser extent latitude, were the most important environmental predictors of beta diversity. Metrics related to species identity percentage of singletons and β(W) were most sensitive to soil fertility, whereas those metrics related to environmental gradients and abundance (β(R2) and β(MV) were more associated with climate variability. Interactions among soil variables, climatic factors and plant cover were not important determinants of beta diversity. Sites receiving less than 178 mm of annual rainfall differed sharply in species composition from more mesic sites (> 200 mm). Main conclusions Soil fertility and variability in temperature and rainfall are the most important environmental predictors of variation in plant beta diversity in global drylands. Our results suggest that those sites annually receiving c. 178 mm of rainfall will be especially sensitive to future climate changes. These findings may help to define appropriate conservation strategies for mitigating effects of climate change on dryland vegetation.

Links between atmospheric carbon dioxide, the land carbon reservoir and climate over the past millennium

The stability of terrestrial carbon reservoirs is thought to be closely linked to variations in climate 1, but the magnitude of carbon–climate feedbacks has proved dificult to constrain for both modern 2–4 and millennial 5–13 timescales. Reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations for the past thousand years have shown fluctuations on multidecadal to centennial timescales 5–7, but the causes of these fluctuations are unclear. Here we report high-resolution carbon isotope measurements of CO2 trapped within the ice of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core for the past 1,000 years. We use a deconvolution approach 14 to show that changes in terrestrial organic carbon stores best explain the observed multidecadal variations in the 13 C of CO2 and in CO2 concentrations from 755 to 1850 CE. If significant long-term carbon emissions came from pre-industrial anthropogenic land-use changes over this interval, the emissions must have been offset by a natural terrestrial sink for 13 C-depleted carbon, such as peatlands. We find that on multidecadal timescales, carbon cycle changes seem to vary with reconstructed regional climate changes. We conclude that climate variability could be an important control of fluctuations in land carbon storage on these timescales.

Conservation of threatened habitat types under future climate change – Lessons from plant-distribution models and current extinction trends in southern Germany

A higher risk of future range losses as a result of climate change is expected to be one of the main drivers of extinction trends in vascular plants occurring in habitat types of high conservation value. Nevertheless, the impact of the climate changes of the last 60 years on the current distribution and extinction patterns of plants is still largely unclear. We applied species distribution models to study the impact of environmental variables (climate, soil conditions, land cover, topography), on the current distribution of 18 vascular plant species characteristic of three threatened habitat types in southern Germany: (i) xero-thermophilous vegetation, (ii) mesophilous mountain grasslands (mountain hay meadows and matgrass communities), and (iii) wetland habitats (bogs, fens, and wet meadows). Climate and soil variables were the most important variables affecting plant distributions at a spatial level of 10 × 10 km. Extinction trends in our study area revealed that plant species which occur in wetland habitats faced higher extinction risks than those in xero-thermophilous vegetation, with the risk for species in mesophilous mountain grasslands being intermediary. For three plant species characteristic either of mesophilous mountain grasslands or wetland habitats we showed exemplarily that extinctions from 1950 to the present day have occurred at the edge of the species’ current climatic niche, indicating that climate change has likely been the main driver of extinction. This is largely consistent with current extinction trends reported in other studies. Our study indicates that the analysis of past extinctions is an appropriate means to assess the impact of climate change on species and that vulnerability to climate change is both species- and habitat-specific.