19 resultados para Choice under complete uncertainty

em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça


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Given the centrality of control for achieving success in outsourced software projects, past research has identified key exogenous factors that determine the choice of controls. This view of exogenously driven control choice is based on a number of assumptions; particularly, clients and vendors are seen as separate cognitive entities that combat opportunistic threats under environmental uncertainty by one-off choices or infrequent revisions of controls. In this paper we complement this perspective by acknowledging that an outsourced software project may be characterized as a collective, evolving process faced with the challenge of coping with cognitive limitations of both client and vendor through a continuous process of learning. We argue that if viewed in this way, controls are less subject of a deliberate choice but rather are subject of endogenously driven change, i.e. controls evolve in close interaction with the evolving software project. Accordingly, we suggest a complementary model of endogenous control, where controls mediate individual and collective learning processes. Our research contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics in outsourced software projects. It also spells out methodological implications that may help improve cross-section control research.

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Bargaining is the building block of many economic interactions, ranging from bilateral to multilateral encounters and from situations in which the actors are individuals to negotiations between firms or countries. In all these settings, economists have been intrigued for a long time by the fact that some projects, trades or agreements are not realized even though they are mutually beneficial. On the one hand, this has been explained by incomplete information. A firm may not be willing to offer a wage that is acceptable to a qualified worker, because it knows that there are also unqualified workers and cannot distinguish between the two types. This phenomenon is known as adverse selection. On the other hand, it has been argued that even with complete information, the presence of externalities may impede efficient outcomes. To see this, consider the example of climate change. If a subset of countries agrees to curb emissions, non-participant regions benefit from the signatories’ efforts without incurring costs. These free riding opportunities give rise to incentives to strategically improve ones bargaining power that work against the formation of a global agreement. This thesis is concerned with extending our understanding of both factors, adverse selection and externalities. The findings are based on empirical evidence from original laboratory experiments as well as game theoretic modeling. On a very general note, it is demonstrated that the institutions through which agents interact matter to a large extent. Insights are provided about which institutions we should expect to perform better than others, at least in terms of aggregate welfare. Chapters 1 and 2 focus on the problem of adverse selection. Effective operation of markets and other institutions often depends on good information transmission properties. In terms of the example introduced above, a firm is only willing to offer high wages if it receives enough positive signals about the worker’s quality during the application and wage bargaining process. In Chapter 1, it will be shown that repeated interaction coupled with time costs facilitates information transmission. By making the wage bargaining process costly for the worker, the firm is able to obtain more accurate information about the worker’s type. The cost could be pure time cost from delaying agreement or cost of effort arising from a multi-step interviewing process. In Chapter 2, I abstract from time cost and show that communication can play a similar role. The simple fact that a worker states to be of high quality may be informative. In Chapter 3, the focus is on a different source of inefficiency. Agents strive for bargaining power and thus may be motivated by incentives that are at odds with the socially efficient outcome. I have already mentioned the example of climate change. Other examples are coalitions within committees that are formed to secure voting power to block outcomes or groups that commit to different technological standards although a single standard would be optimal (e.g. the format war between HD and BlueRay). It will be shown that such inefficiencies are directly linked to the presence of externalities and a certain degree of irreversibility in actions. I now discuss the three articles in more detail. In Chapter 1, Olivier Bochet and I study a simple bilateral bargaining institution that eliminates trade failures arising from incomplete information. In this setting, a buyer makes offers to a seller in order to acquire a good. Whenever an offer is rejected by the seller, the buyer may submit a further offer. Bargaining is costly, because both parties suffer a (small) time cost after any rejection. The difficulties arise, because the good can be of low or high quality and the quality of the good is only known to the seller. Indeed, without the possibility to make repeated offers, it is too risky for the buyer to offer prices that allow for trade of high quality goods. When allowing for repeated offers, however, at equilibrium both types of goods trade with probability one. We provide an experimental test of these predictions. Buyers gather information about sellers using specific price offers and rates of trade are high, much as the model’s qualitative predictions. We also observe a persistent over-delay before trade occurs, and this mitigates efficiency substantially. Possible channels for over-delay are identified in the form of two behavioral assumptions missing from the standard model, loss aversion (buyers) and haggling (sellers), which reconcile the data with the theoretical predictions. Chapter 2 also studies adverse selection, but interaction between buyers and sellers now takes place within a market rather than isolated pairs. Remarkably, in a market it suffices to let agents communicate in a very simple manner to mitigate trade failures. The key insight is that better informed agents (sellers) are willing to truthfully reveal their private information, because by doing so they are able to reduce search frictions and attract more buyers. Behavior observed in the experimental sessions closely follows the theoretical predictions. As a consequence, costless and non-binding communication (cheap talk) significantly raises rates of trade and welfare. Previous experiments have documented that cheap talk alleviates inefficiencies due to asymmetric information. These findings are explained by pro-social preferences and lie aversion. I use appropriate control treatments to show that such consideration play only a minor role in our market. Instead, the experiment highlights the ability to organize markets as a new channel through which communication can facilitate trade in the presence of private information. In Chapter 3, I theoretically explore coalition formation via multilateral bargaining under complete information. The environment studied is extremely rich in the sense that the model allows for all kinds of externalities. This is achieved by using so-called partition functions, which pin down a coalitional worth for each possible coalition in each possible coalition structure. It is found that although binding agreements can be written, efficiency is not guaranteed, because the negotiation process is inherently non-cooperative. The prospects of cooperation are shown to crucially depend on i) the degree to which players can renegotiate and gradually build up agreements and ii) the absence of a certain type of externalities that can loosely be described as incentives to free ride. Moreover, the willingness to concede bargaining power is identified as a novel reason for gradualism. Another key contribution of the study is that it identifies a strong connection between the Core, one of the most important concepts in cooperative game theory, and the set of environments for which efficiency is attained even without renegotiation.

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Modern policy-making is increasingly influenced by different types of uncertainty. Political actors are supposed to behave differently under the context of uncertainty then in “usual” decision-making processes. Actors exchange information in order to convince other actors and decision-makers, to coordinate their lobbying activities and form coalitions, and to get information and learn on the substantive issue. The literature suggests that preference similarity, social trust, perceived power and functional interdependence are particularly important drivers of information exchange. We assume that social trust as well as being connected to scientific actors is more important under uncertainty than in a setting with less uncertainty. To investigate information exchange under uncertainty analyze the case of unconventional shale gas development in the UK from 2008 till 2014. Our study will rely on statistical analyses of survey data on a diverse set of actors dealing with shale gas development and regulation in the UK.

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The paper addresses the question of which factors drive the formation of policy preferences when there are remaining uncertainties about the causes and effects of the problem at stake. To answer this question we examine policy preferences reducing aquatic micropollutants, a specific case of water protection policy and different actor groups (e.g. state, science, target groups). Here, we contrast two types of policy preferences: a) preventive or source-directed policies, which mitigate pollution in order to avoid contact with water; and b) reactive or end-of-pipe policies, which filter water already contaminated by pollutants. In a second step, we analyze the drivers for actors’ policy preferences by focusing on three sets of explanations, i.e. participation, affectedness and international collaborations. The analysis of our survey data, qualitative interviews and regression analysis of the Swiss political elite show that participation in the policy-making process leads to knowledge exchange and reduces uncertainties about the policy problem, which promotes preferences for preventive policies. Likewise, actors who are affected by the consequences of micropollutants, such as consumer or environmental associations, opt for anticipatory policies. Interestingly, we find that uncertainties about the effectiveness of preventive policies can promote preferences for end-of-pipe policies. While preventive measures often rely on (uncertain) behavioral changes of target groups, reactive policies are more reliable when it comes to fulfilling defined policy goals. Finally, we find that in a transboundary water management context, actors with international collaborations prefer policies that produce immediate and reliable outcomes.

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Energy shocks like the Fukushima accident can have important political consequences. This article examines their impact on collaboration patterns between collective actors in policy processes. It argues that external shocks create both behavioral uncertainty, meaning that actors do not know about other actors' preferences, and policy uncertainty on the choice and consequences of policy instruments. The context of uncertainty interacts with classical drivers of actor collaboration in policy processes. The analysis is based on a dataset comprising interview and survey data on political actors in two subsequent policy processes in Switzerland and Exponential Random Graph Models for network data. Results first show that under uncertainty, collaboration of actors in policy processes is less based on similar preferences than in stable contexts, but trust and knowledge of other actors are more important. Second, under uncertainty, scientific actors are not preferred collaboration partners.

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In surgical animal studies anesthesia is used regularly. Several reports in the literature demonstrate respiratory and cardiovascular side effects of anesthesiologic agents. The aim of this study was to compare two frequently used anesthesia cocktails (ketamine/xylazine [KX] versus medetomidine/climazolam/fentanyl [MCF]) in skin flap mouse models. Systemic blood values, local metabolic parameters, and surgical outcome should be analyzed in critical ischemic skin flap models. Systemic hypoxia was found in the animals undergoing KX anesthesia compared with normoxia in the MCF group (sO(2): 89.2% +/- 2.4% versus 98.5% +/- 1.2%, P < 0.01). Analysis of tissue metabolism revealed impaired anaerobic oxygen metabolism and increased cellular damage in critical ischemic flap tissue under KX anesthesia (lactate/pyruvate ratio: KX 349.86 +/- 282.38 versus MCF 64.53 +/- 18.63; P < 0.01 and glycerol: KX 333.50 +/- 83.91 micromol/L versus MCF 195.83 +/- 29.49 micromol/L; P < 0.01). After 6 d, different rates of flap tissue necrosis could be detected (MCF 57% +/- 6% versus KX 68% +/- 6%, P < 0.01). In summary we want to point out that the type of anesthesia, the animal model and the goal of the study have to be well correlated. Comparing the effects of KX and MCF anesthesia in mice on surgical outcome was a novel aspect of our study.

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The paper aims at explaining the adoption of policy programs. We use the garbage can model of organizational choice as our theoretical framework and complement it with the institutional setting of administrative decision-making in order to understand the complex causation of policy program adoption. Institutions distribute decision power by rules and routines and coin actor identities and their interpretations of situations. We therefore expect institutions to play a role when a policy window opens. We explore the configurative explanations for program adoption in a systematic comparison of the adoption of new alcohol policy programs in the Swiss cantons employing Qualitative Comparative Analysis. The most important conditions are the organizational elements of the administrative structure decisive for the coupling of the streams. The results imply that classic bureaucratic structures are better suited to put policies into practice than limited government.

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BACKGROUND: The prolonged effect of electroporation-mediated human interleukin-10 (hIL-10) overexpression in skeletal muscle under the control of the constitutional polyubiquitin C promoter (pUb hIL-10) on rat lung allograft rejection was evaluated. METHODS: Left lung allotransplantation was performed from Brown-Norway to Fischer-F344 rats. Either 2.5 mug pCIK hIL-10 (hIL-10/cytomegalovirus early promoter enhancer) alone (Group I/sacrifice Day 5 and II/sacrifice Day 10) or in combination with 2.5 mug pUb hIL-10 (hIL-10/UbC promoter; Group III/sacrifice Day 10) were injected into the tibialis anterior muscle of the recipient, followed by electroporation 24 hours before transplantation. Animals in Control Groups IV and V without gene transfer were euthanized on Day 5 and 10, respectively. All animals received a daily non-therapeutic dose of cyclosporine A (2.5 mg/kg). RESULTS: In Control Group IV, complete rejection (median A3B3) was noted on Day 5 with a Pao(2) of 43 +/- 9 mm Hg. In recipients of Control Group V, measurement of gas exchange on Day 10 and rejection grading was impossible because of complete destruction of the allograft. Group I animals on Day 5 (233 +/- 123 mm Hg; p = 0.02 vs Group IV) and Group II animals on Day 10 (150 +/- 139 mm Hg; p = 0.15 vs Group IV) demonstrated improved graft function. Graft function in Group III was further improved on Day 10 (299 +/- 123 mm Hg; p = 0.002 vs Group IV; p = 0.05 vs Group II; p = 0.36 vs Group I). Rejection was significantly reduced in Group III (median, A2B2) compared with Group II (median, A4B3; p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Interleukin-10 overexpression under control of the constitutive ubiquitin C promoter ameliorates acute rejection and preserves lung graft function for a prolonged time.

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OBJECTIVES This study examined the near visual acuity of dentists in relation to age and magnification under simulated clinical conditions. MATERIALS AND METHODS Miniaturized visual tests were performed in posterior teeth of a dental phantom head in a simulated clinical setting (dental chair, operating lamp, dental mirror). The visual acuity of 40 dentists was measured under the following conditions: (1) natural visual acuity, distance of 300 mm; (2) natural visual acuity, free choice of distance; (3) Galilean loupes, magnification of ×2.5; (4) Keplerian loupes, ×4.3; (5) operating microscope, ×4, integrated light; (6) operating microscope, ×6.4, integrated light. RESULTS The visual acuity varied widely between individuals and was significantly lower in the group ≥40 years of age (p < 0.001). Significant differences were found between all tested conditions (p < 0.01). Furthermore, a correlation between visual acuity and age was found for all conditions. The performance with the microscope was better than with loupes even with comparable magnification factors. Some dentists had a better visual acuity without optical aids than others with Galilean loupes. CONCLUSIONS Near visual acuity under simulated clinical conditions varies widely between individuals and decreases throughout life. Visual deficiencies can be compensated for with optical aids. CLINICAL RELEVANCE Newly developed miniaturized vision tests have allowed, in a clinically relevant way, to evaluate the influence of magnification and age on the near visual acuity of dentists.

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Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus (REDD+) encourages economic support for reducing deforestation and conserving or increasing existing forest carbon stocks. The way in which incentives are structured affects trade-offs between local livelihoods, carbon emission reduction, and the cost-effectiveness of a REDD + programme. Looking at first-hand empirical data from 208 farming households in the Bolivian Amazon froma household economy perspective, our study explores two policy options: 1) compensated reduction of emissions fromold-growth forest clearing for agriculture, and 2) direct payments for labour input into sustainable forest anagement combined with a commitment not to clear old-growth forest. Our results indicate that direct payments for sustainable forest management – an approach that focuses on valuing farmers' labour input – can be more cost-effective than compensated reduction and in some cases is themost appropriate choice for achieving improved household incomes, permanence of changes, avoidance of leakages, and community-based institutional enforcement for sustainable forest management.

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ABSTRACT The authors describe two animals (one dog and one cat) that were presented with severe respiratory distress after trauma. Computerized tomographic imaging under general anesthesia revealed, in both cases, complete tracheal transection. Hypoxic episodes during anesthesia were relieved by keeping the endotracheal tube (ETT) positioned in the cranial part of the transected trachea and by allowing spontaneous breathing. Surgical preparation was performed quickly, and patients were kept in a sternal position to improve ventilation and oxygenation, and were only turned into dorsal recumbency shortly before surgical incision. A sterile ETT was guided into the distal part of the transected trachea by the surgeon, at which point mechanical ventilation was started. Both animals were successfully discharged from hospital a few days after surgery. Rapid and well-coordinated teamwork seemed to contribute to the good outcome. Precise planning and communication between anesthetists, surgeons, and technicians, as well as a quick course of action prior to correct ETT positioning helped to overcome critical phases.

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PURPOSE OF REVIEW There is controversy regarding the optimal choice of prosthetic valves in patients less than 65 years of age requiring mitral valve replacement (MVR). Recently, trends for valve replacement are moving towards biological prosthesis also in younger patients, which is justified by the fact that a later valve-in-valve procedure is feasible in the case of degeneration of the tissue valve. This strategy is increasingly recommended in aortic valve surgery but is questionable for MVR. The purpose of this review is to evaluate current guidelines and analyse evidence for biological MVR in patients under 65 years. RECENT FINDINGS There are differences between guidelines of the American Heart Association and those of the European Society of Cardiology concerning the choice of prostheses in patients undergoing MVR. Although the European Society of Cardiology recommends a mechanical mitral valve in patients under 65 years of age, the American Heart Association does not provide detailed advice for these patients. Mitral valve replacement with biological valves in patients under 65 years is associated with higher rates of reoperation due to structural valve deterioration. In addition, several studies showed a decreased survival after biological MVR. SUMMARY Evidence for biological MVR in patients less than 65 years without comorbidities or contraindication for oral anticoagulation does not exist. Recommendations for patients less than 65 years of age should not be blurred by current 'en-vogue' methods for promising but not yet proven valve-in-valve strategies.

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Abstract Background: Aromatase deficiency may result in a complete block of estrogen synthesis because of the failure to convert androgens to estrogens. In females, this results in virilisation at birth, ovarian cysts in prepuberty and lack of pubertal development but virilisation, thereafter. Objective and methods: We studied the impact of oral 17β-estradiol treatment on ovarian and uterine development, and on LH/FSH and inhibin B during the long-term follow-up of a girl harboring compound heterozygote point mutations in the CYP19A1 gene. Results: In early childhood, low doses of oral 17β-estradiol were needed. During prepuberty treatment with slowly increasing doses of E2 resulted in normal uterine and almost normal development of ovarian volume, as well as number and size of follicles. Regarding hormonal feedback mechanisms, inhibin B levels were in the upper normal range during childhood and puberty. Low doses of estradiol did not suffice to achieve physiological gonadotropin levels in late prepuberty and puberty. However, when estradiol doses were further increased in late puberty levels of both FSH and LH declined with estradiol levels within normal range. Conclusion: Complete aromatase deficiency provides an excellent model of how ovarian and uterine development in relation to E2, LH, FSH and inhibin B feedback progresses from infancy to adolescence.

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To satisfy REACH requirements a high number of data on chemical of interest should be supplied to the European Chemicals Agency. To organize the various kinds of information and help the registrants to choose the best strategy to obtain the needed information limiting at the minimum the use of animal testing, integrated testing strategies (ITSs) schemes can be used. The present work deals with regulatory data requirements for assessing the hazards of chemicals to the aquatic pelagic environment. We present an ITS scheme for organizing and using the complex existing data available for aquatic toxicity assessment. An ITS to optimize the choice of the correct prediction strategy for aquatic pelagic toxicity is described. All existing information (like physico-chemical information), and all the alternative methods (like in silico, in vitro or the acute-to-chronic ratio) are considered. Moreover the weight of evidence approach to combine the available data is included.