Transmission dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis affect the impact of screening programmes

To assess the impact of screening programmes in reducing the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis, mathematical and computational models are used as a guideline for decision support. Unfortunately, large uncertainties exist about the parameters that determine the transmission dynamics of C. trachomatis. Here, we use a SEIRS (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible) model to critically analyze the turnover of C. trachomatis in a population and the impact of a screening programme. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the most important steps during an infection with C. trachomatis. Varying the fraction of the infections becoming symptomatic as well as the duration of the symptomatic period within the range of previously used parameter estimates has little effect on the transmission dynamics. However, uncertainties in the duration of temporary immunity and the asymptomatic period can result in large differences in the predicted impact of a screening programme. We therefore analyze previously published data on the persistence of asymptomatic C. trachomatis infection in women and estimate the mean duration of the asymptomatic period to be longer than anticipated so far, namely 433 days (95% CI: 420-447 days). Our study shows that a longer duration of the asymptomatic period results in a more pronounced impact of a screening programme. However, due to the slower turnover of the infection, a substantial reduction in prevalence can only be achieved after screening for several years or decades.

Screening and treatment to prevent sequelae in women with Chlamydia trachomatis genital infection: how much do we know?

Background. An important question for chlamydia control programs is the extent to which finding and treating prevalent, asymptomatic Chlamydia trachomatis genital infection reduces reproductive sequelae in infected women. Methods. We reviewed the literature to critically evaluate evidence on the effect of chlamydia screening on development of sequelae in infected women. Results. Two randomized controlled trials of 1-time screening for chlamydial infection—in a Seattle-area health maintenance organization and a Danish school district—revealed that screening was associated with an ∼50% reduction in the incidence of pelvic inflammatory disease over the following year. However, both of these trials had methodological issues that may have affected the magnitude of observed screening benefits and might limit generalizability to other populations. A large, nonrandomized cohort of chlamydia screening among US Army recruits, although limited by lack of outpatient data, did not find a benefit of similar magnitude to the randomized trials. Methodological limitations restrict valid conclusions about individual benefits of screening using data from historical cohorts and ecological studies. We identified no trials directly evaluating the effect of chlamydia screening on subclinical tubal inflammation or damage, ectopic pregnancy, or tubal factor infertility and no studies addressing the effects of >1 round of screening, the optimal frequency of screening, or the benefits of screening for repeat infections. Conclusions. Additional studies of the effectiveness of chlamydia screening would be valuable; feasible study designs may depend on the degree to which screening programs are already established. In addition, better natural history data on the timing of tubal inflammation and damage after C. trachomatis infection and development of more accurate, noninvasive tools to assess chlamydial sequelae are essential to informing chlamydia control efforts.

Risk of sequelae after Chlamydia trachomatis genital infection in women

Chlamydia trachomatis infection, the most common reportable disease in the United States, can lead to pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), infertility, ectopic pregnancy, and chronic pelvic pain. Although C. trachomatis is identified among many women who receive a diagnosis of PID, the incidence and timing of PID and long-term sequelae from an untreated chlamydial infection have not been fully determined. This article examines evidence reviewed as part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Chlamydia Immunology and Control Expert Advisory Meeting; 24 reports were included. We found no prospective studies directly assessing risk of long-term reproductive sequelae, such as infertility, after untreated C. trachomatis infection. Several studies assessed PID diagnosis after untreated chlamydial infection, but rates varied widely, making it difficult to determine an overall estimate. In high-risk settings, 2%-5% of untreated women developed PID within the approximately 2-week period between testing positive for C. trachomatis and returning for treatment. However, the rate of PID progression in the general, asymptomatic population followed up for longer periods appeared to be low. According to the largest studies, after symptomatic PID of any cause has occurred, up to 18% of women may develop infertility. In several studies, repeated chlamydial infection was associated with PID and other reproductive sequelae, although it was difficult to determine whether the risk per infection increased with each recurrent episode. The present review critically evaluates this body of literature and suggests future research directions. Specifically, prospective studies assessing rates of symptomatic PID, subclinical tubal damage, and long-term reproductive sequelae after C. trachomatis infection; better tools to measure PID and tubal damage; and studies on the natural history of repeated chlamydial infections are needed.

Towards More Robust Estimates of the Transmissibility of Chlamydia trachomatis

There is a lack of a common concept on how to estimate transmissibility of Chlamydia trachomatis from cross-sectional sexual partnership studies. Using a mathematical model that takes into account the dynamics of chlamydia transmission and sexual partnership formation, we report refined estimates of chlamydia transmissibility in heterosexual partnerships.

Transmission of Chlamydia trachomatis through sexual partnerships: a comparison between three individual-based models and empirical data

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) in many developed countries. The highest prevalence rates are found among young adults who have frequent partner change rates. Three published individual-based models have incorporated a detailed description of age-specific sexual behaviour in order to quantify the transmission of C. trachomatis in the population and to assess the impact of screening interventions. Owing to varying assumptions about sexual partnership formation and dissolution and the great uncertainty about critical parameters, such models show conflicting results about the impact of preventive interventions. Here, we perform a detailed evaluation of these models by comparing the partnership formation and dissolution dynamics with data from Natsal 2000, a population-based probability sample survey of sexual attitudes and lifestyles in Britain. The data also allow us to describe the dispersion of C. trachomatis infections as a function of sexual behaviour, using the Gini coefficient. We suggest that the Gini coefficient is a useful measure for calibrating infectious disease models that include risk structure and highlight the need to estimate this measure for other STIs.

Individual and population level effects of partner notification for Chlamydia trachomatis

Partner notification (PN or contact tracing) is an important aspect of treating bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs), such as Chlamydia trachomatis. It facilitates the identification of new infected cases that can be treated through individual case management. PN also acts indirectly by limiting onward transmission in the general population. However, the impact of PN, both at the level of individuals and the population, remains unclear. Since it is difficult to study the effects of PN empirically, mathematical and computational models are useful tools for investigating its potential as a public health intervention. To this end, we developed an individual-based modeling framework called Rstisim. It allows the implementation of different models of STI transmission with various levels of complexity and the reconstruction of the complete dynamic sexual partnership network over any time period. A key feature of this framework is that we can trace an individual's partnership history in detail and investigate the outcome of different PN strategies for C. trachomatis. For individual case management, the results suggest that notifying three or more partners from the preceding 18 months yields substantial numbers of new cases. In contrast, the successful treatment of current partners is most important for preventing re-infection of index cases and reducing further transmission of C. trachomatis at the population level. The findings of this study demonstrate the difference between individual and population level outcomes of public health interventions for STIs.

Timing of progression from Chlamydia trachomatis infection to pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modelling study

Background Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) results from the ascending spread of microorganisms from the vagina and endocervix to the upper genital tract. PID can lead to infertility, ectopic pregnancy and chronic pelvic pain. The timing of development of PID after the sexually transmitted bacterial infection Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) might affect the impact of screening interventions, but is currently unknown. This study investigates three hypothetical processes for the timing of progression: at the start, at the end, or throughout the duration of chlamydia infection. Methods We develop a compartmental model that describes the trial structure of a published randomised controlled trial (RCT) and allows each of the three processes to be examined using the same model structure. The RCT estimated the effect of a single chlamydia screening test on the cumulative incidence of PID up to one year later. The fraction of chlamydia infected women who progress to PID is obtained for each hypothetical process by the maximum likelihood method using the results of the RCT. Results The predicted cumulative incidence of PID cases from all causes after one year depends on the fraction of chlamydia infected women that progresses to PID and on the type of progression. Progression at a constant rate from a chlamydia infection to PID or at the end of the infection was compatible with the findings of the RCT. The corresponding estimated fraction of chlamydia infected women that develops PID is 10% (95% confidence interval 7-13%) in both processes. Conclusions The findings of this study suggest that clinical PID can occur throughout the course of a chlamydia infection, which will leave a window of opportunity for screening to prevent PID.

Describing the progression from Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae to pelvic inflammatory disease: systematic review of mathematical modeling studies

Chlamydia screening is recommended to prevent pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). A systematic review was conducted to determine how the natural history of Chlamydia trachomatis or Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection and progression to PID have been described in mathematical modeling studies.

Insights into the timing of repeated testing after treatment for Chlamydia trachomatis: data and modelling study

The objective of this study was to determine the optimal time interval for a repeated Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) test.

Vulvovaginal-swab or first-catch urine specimen to detect Chlamydia trachomatis in women in a community setting?

Screening for chlamydia in women is widely recommended. We evaluated the performance of two nucleic acid amplification tests for detecting Chlamydia trachomatis in self-collected vulvovaginal-swab and first-catch urine specimens from women in a community setting and a strategy for optimizing the sensitivity of an amplified enzyme immunoassay on vulvovaginal-swab specimens. We tested 2,745 paired vulvovaginal-swab and urine specimens by PCR (Roche Cobas) or strand displacement amplification (SDA; Becton Dickinson). There were 146 women infected with chlamydia. The assays detected 97.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 93.1 to 99.2%) of infected patients with vulvovaginal-swab specimens and 91.8% (86.1 to 95.7%) with urine specimens. We tested 2,749 vulvovaginal-swab specimens with both a nucleic acid amplification test and a polymer conjugate-enhanced enzyme immunoassay with negative-gray-zone testing. The relative sensitivities obtained after retesting specimens in the negative gray zone were 74.3% (95% CI, 62.8 to 83.8%) with PCR and 58.3% (95% CI, 46.1 to 69.8%) with SDA. In community settings, both vulvovaginal-swab and first-catch urine specimens from women are suitable substrates for nucleic acid amplification tests, but enzyme immunoassays, even after negative-gray-zone testing, should not be used in screening programs.

Screening for Chlamydia trachomatis: a systematic review of the economic evaluations and modelling

OBJECTIVE: To review systematically and critically, evidence used to derive estimates of costs and cost effectiveness of chlamydia screening. METHODS: Systematic review. A search of 11 electronic bibliographic databases from the earliest date available to August 2004 using keywords including chlamydia, pelvic inflammatory disease, economic evaluation, and cost. We included studies of chlamydia screening in males and/or females over 14 years, including studies of diagnostic tests, contact tracing, and treatment as part of a screening programme. Outcomes included cases of chlamydia identified and major outcomes averted. We assessed methodological quality and the modelling approach used. RESULTS: Of 713 identified papers we included 57 formal economic evaluations and two cost studies. Most studies found chlamydia screening to be cost effective, partner notification to be an effective adjunct, and testing with nucleic acid amplification tests, and treatment with azithromycin to be cost effective. Methodological problems limited the validity of these findings: most studies used static models that are inappropriate for infectious diseases; restricted outcomes were used as a basis for policy recommendations; and high estimates of the probability of chlamydia associated complications might have overestimated cost effectiveness. Two high quality dynamic modelling studies found opportunistic screening to be cost effective but poor reporting or uncertainty about complication rates make interpretation difficult. CONCLUSION: The inappropriate use of static models to study interventions to prevent a communicable disease means that uncertainty remains about whether chlamydia screening programmes are cost effective or not. The results of this review can be used by health service managers in the allocation of resources, and health economists and other researchers who are considering further research in this area.

Does population screening for Chlamydia trachomatis raise anxiety among those tested? Findings from a population based chlamydia screening study

BACKGROUND: The advent of urine testing for Chlamydia trachomatis has raised the possibility of large-scale screening for this sexually transmitted infection, which is now the most common in the United Kingdom. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of an invitation to be screened for chlamydia and of receiving a negative result on levels of anxiety, depression and self-esteem. METHODS: 19,773 men and women aged 16 to 39 years, selected at random from 27 general practices in two large city areas (Bristol and Birmingham) were invited by post to send home-collected urine samples or vulvo-vaginal swabs for chlamydia testing. Questionnaires enquiring about anxiety, depression and self-esteem were sent to random samples of those offered screening: one month before the dispatch of invitations; when participants returned samples; and after receiving a negative result. RESULTS: Home screening was associated with an overall reduction in anxiety scores. An invitation to participate did not increase anxiety levels. Anxiety scores in men were lower after receiving the invitation than at baseline. Amongst women anxiety was reduced after receipt of negative test results. Neither depression nor self-esteem scores were affected by screening. CONCLUSION: Postal screening for chlamydia does not appear to have a negative impact on overall psychological well-being and can lead to a decrease in anxiety levels among respondents. There is, however, a clear difference between men and women in when this reduction occurs.

Cost effectiveness of home based population screening for Chlamydia trachomatis in the UK: economic evaluation of chlamydia screening studies (ClaSS) project

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the cost effectiveness of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis compared with a policy of no organised screening in the United Kingdom. DESIGN: Economic evaluation using a transmission dynamic mathematical model. SETTING: Central and southwest England. PARTICIPANTS: Hypothetical population of 50,000 men and women, in which all those aged 16-24 years were invited to be screened each year. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost effectiveness based on major outcomes averted, defined as pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancy, infertility, or neonatal complications. RESULTS: The incremental cost per major outcome averted for a programme of screening women only (assuming eight years of screening) was 22,300 pounds (33,000 euros; $45,000) compared with no organised screening. For a programme screening both men and women, the incremental cost effectiveness ratio was approximately 28,900 pounds. Pelvic inflammatory disease leading to hospital admission was the most frequently averted major outcome. The model was highly sensitive to the incidence of major outcomes and to uptake of screening. When both were increased the cost effectiveness ratio fell to 6200 pound per major outcome averted for screening women only. CONCLUSIONS: Proactive register based screening for chlamydia is not cost effective if the uptake of screening and incidence of complications are based on contemporary empirical studies, which show lower rates than commonly assumed. These data are relevant to discussions about the cost effectiveness of the opportunistic model of chlamydia screening being introduced in England.

Emergence and spread of Chlamydia trachomatis variant, Sweden

A variant of Chlamydia trachomatis that had escaped detection by commonly used systems was discovered in Sweden in 2006. In a nationwide study, we found that it is now prevalent across Sweden, irrespective of the detection system used. Genetic analysis by multilocus sequence typing identified a predominant variant, suggesting recent emergence.

Valuing the Health States Associated with Chlamydia trachomatis Infections and Their Sequelae: A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations and Primary Studies

OBJECTIVES Economic evaluations of interventions to prevent and control sexually transmitted infections such as Chlamydia trachomatis are increasingly required to present their outcomes in terms of quality-adjusted life-years using preference-based measurements of relevant health states. The objectives of this study were to critically evaluate how published cost-effectiveness studies have conceptualized and valued health states associated with chlamydia and to examine the primary evidence available to inform health state utility values (HSUVs). METHODS A systematic review was conducted, with searches of six electronic databases up to December 2012. Data on study characteristics, methods, and main results were extracted by using a standard template. RESULTS Nineteen economic evaluations of relevant interventions were included. Individual studies considered different health states and assigned different values and durations. Eleven studies cited the same source for HSUVs. Only five primary studies valued relevant health states. The methods and viewpoints adopted varied, and different values for health states were generated. CONCLUSIONS Limitations in the information available about HSUVs associated with chlamydia and its complications have implications for the robustness of economic evaluations in this area. None of the primary studies could be used without reservation to inform cost-effectiveness analyses in the United Kingdom. Future debate should consider appropriate methods for valuing health states for infectious diseases, because recommended approaches may not be suitable. Unless we adequately tackle the challenges associated with measuring and valuing health-related quality of life for patients with chlamydia and other infectious diseases, evaluating the cost-effectiveness of interventions in this area will remain problematic.