The 1985 catastrophic drainage of a moraine-dammed lake, Khumbu Himal, Nepal: cause and consequences

On 4 August 1985 Dig Tsho, a moraine-dammed glacial lake in the Khumbu area of eastern Nepal, burst above Thame. For the region close to the origin of the outbreak the consequences were catastrophic. The destruction of a newly built hydroelectricp ower plant, 14 bridges, about 30 houses, and many hectares of valuable arable land, as well as a heavily damaged trail network, resulted from 5 million m3 of water plummetting down the Bhote Kosi and Dudh Kosi valleys. The breaching of the moraine was triggered by wave action following an ice avalanche of 150,000 m3 into the lake. The surge had a peak discharge of 1,600 m3/sec; 3 million m3 of debris were moved within a distance of less than 40 km. However, only 10-15 percent of the material left the region as suspended load. The potential hazard of glacial lakes persists and increases. A hazard assessment including an identificationo f source areas and subsequent monitoring of glacial lakes is proposed. It should be incorporated into any development concept for the Himalayan region.

Selective sampling during catastrophic disruption: Mapping the location of reaccumulated fragments in the original parent body

In this paper, we simulate numerically the catastrophic disruption of a large asteroid as a result of a collision with a smaller projectile and the subsequent reaccumulation of fragments as a result of their mutual gravitational attractions. We then investigate the original location within the parent body of the small pieces that eventually reaccumulate to form the largest offspring of the disruption as a function of the internal structure of the parent body. We consider four cases that may represent the internal structure of such a body (whose diameter is fixed at 250 km) in various early stages of the Solar System evolution: fully molten, half molten (i.e., a 26 km-deep outer layer of melt containing half of the mass), solid except a thin molten layer (8 km thick) centered at 10 km depth, and fully solid. The solid material has properties of basalt. We then focus on the three largest offspring that have enough reaccumulated pieces to consider. Our results indicate that the particles that eventually reaccumulate to form the largest reaccumulated bodies retain a memory of their original locations in the parent body. Most particles in each reaccumulated body are clustered from the same original region, even if their reaccumulations take place far away. The extent of the original region varies considerably depending on the internal structure of the parent. It seems to shrink with the solidity of the body. The fraction of particles coming from a given depth is computed for the four cases, which can give constraints on the internal structure of parent bodies of some meteorites. As one example, we consider the ureilites, which in some petrogenetic models are inferred to have formed at particular depths within their parent body. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Communicative Signs Meaning Naturally

Paul Grice distinguishes between natural meaning and non-natural meaning, where the first notion is especially connected to something’s being a natural sign and the second to communication. It is argued that some of the arguments against the distinction being exhaustive are based on a misinterpretation of Grice, but also that the distinction cannot be exhaustive if one takes into account both the criterion of factivity and the connection to communication. If one makes a distinction between natural and non-natural communication, then there are different types of natural communication to be distinguished: goal-directed communication, intentional communication and open intentional communication. Given the empirical evidence, the behavior of chimpanzees and of human infants may be described as goal-directed communication, but there are also important differences between the communicative behavior of the two.

The pulmonary artery catheter: the tool versus treatments based on the tool

The pulmonary artery catheter (PAC) is a powerful tool that has been used extensively in the assessment and monitoring of cardiovascular physiology. Gross misinterpretation of data gathered by the PAC is common, and its routine use without any specific interventions has not been shown to influence outcome. However, there currently is no evidence from randomized, controlled trials that any diagnostic or monitoring tool used in intensive care patients improves outcome. Studies evaluating the use of the PAC have included numerous potential confounding factors, and should be interpreted with caution. The information obtained with the PAC should be used to find better treatment strategies, and these strategies, instead of the tool itself, should be tested in clinical trials.

Reanalysis of the Hamburg Storm Surge of 1962

In February 1962, Hamburg experienced its most catastrophic storm surge event of the 20th century. This paper analyses the event using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset. Responsible for the major flood was a strong low pressure system centred over Scandinavia that was associated with strong north-westerly winds towards the German North Sea coast – the ideal storm surge situation for the Elbe estuary. A comparison of the 20CR dataset with observational data proves the applicability of the reanalysis data for this extreme event.

Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the stratosphere, the strong heating leads to an acceleration of catalytic ozone loss and, consequently, to enhancements of UV radiation at the ground. In contrast to surface temperature and precipitation changes, which show a linear dependence to the soot burden, there is a saturation effect with respect to stratospheric ozone chemistry. Soot emissions of 5 Tg lead to an ozone column reduction of almost 50% in northern high latitudes, while emitting 12 Tg only increases ozone loss by a further 10%. In summary, this study, though using a different chemistry climate model, corroborates the previous investigations with respect to the atmospheric impacts. In addition to these persistent effects, the present study draws attention to episodically cold phases, which would likely add to the severity of human harm worldwide. The best insurance against such a catastrophic development would be the delegitimization of nuclear weapons.

Incidence and risk factors of homicide-suicide in Swiss households: National Cohort study

BACKGROUND Homicide-suicides are rare but catastrophic events. This study examined the epidemiology of homicide-suicide in Switzerland. METHODS The study identified homicide-suicide events 1991-2008 in persons from the same household in the Swiss National Cohort, which links census and mortality records. The analysis examined the association of the risk of dying in a homicide-suicide event with socio-demographic variables, measured at the individual-level, household composition variables and area-level variables. Proportional hazards regression models were calculated for male perpetrators and female victims. Results are presented as age-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). RESULTS The study identified 158 deaths from homicide-suicide events, including 85 murder victims (62 women, 4 men, 19 children and adolescents) and 68 male and 5 female perpetrators. The incidence was 3 events per million households and year. Firearms were the most prominent method for both homicides and suicides. The risk of perpetrating homicide-suicide was higher in divorced than in married men (HR 3.64; 95%CI 1.56-8.49), in foreigners without permanent residency compared to Swiss citizens (HR 3.95; 1.52-10.2), higher in men without religious affiliations than in Catholics (HR 2.23; 1.14-4.36) and higher in crowded households (HR 4.85; 1.72-13.6 comparing ≥2 with <1 persons/room). There was no association with education, occupation or nationality, the number of children, the language region or degree of urbanicity. Associations were similar for female victims. CONCLUSIONS This national longitudinal study shows that living conditions associated with psychological stress and lower levels of social support are associated with homicide-suicide events in Switzerland.

Alarm systems and catastrophes from a diverse point of view

Using a chain of urns, we build a Bayesian nonparametric alarm system to predict catastrophic events, such as epidemics, black outs, etc. Differently from other alarm systems in the literature, our model is constantly updated on the basis of the available information, according to the Bayesian paradigm. The papers contains both theoretical and empirical results. In particular, we test our alarm system on a well-known time series of sunspots.

Face off? Emotionsausdruck und (soziale) Identität aus psychologischer Perspektive

In this article we focus on the emotional basis of face perception. In addition, the most important findings concerning epidemiology and etiology of body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) will be reviewed and related to face perception. BDD can be seen as an emotional disorder in which fundamental errors in terms of information processing, especially concerning faces occur. Emotional information is misinterpreted. Both, emotional misinterpretation as well as errors in face perception and recognition are part of the disorder. The relevance of BDD respective to esthetic surgery is discussed. Alternative options for patients such as psychotherapy or pharmacotherapy for this disorder are also related to.

Im Nebel der Präzision: die Bestimmung von GrenzfallkandidatInnen oder wie viel Reliabilität ist genug?

Hintergrund: Bei der Durchführung von summativen Prüfungen wird üblicherweise eine Mindestreliabilität von 0,8 gefordert. Bei praktischen Prüfungen wie OSCEs werden manchmal 0,7 akzeptiert (Downing 2004). Doch was kann man sich eigentlich unter der Präzision einer Messung mit einer Reliabilität von 0,7 oder 0,8 vorstellen? Methode: Mittels verschiedener statistischer Methoden wie dem Standardmessfehler oder der Generalisierbarkeitstheorie lässt sich die Reliabilität in ein Konfidenzintervall um eine festgestellte Kandidatenleistung übersetzen (Brennan 2003, Harvill 1991, McManus 2012). Hat ein Kandidat beispielsweise bei einer Prüfung 57 Punkte erreicht, schwankt seine wahre Leistung aufgrund der Messungenauigkeit der Prüfung um diesen Wert (z.B. zwischen 50 und 64 Punkte). Im Bereich der Bestehensgrenze ist die Messgenauigkeit aber besonders wichtig. Läge die Bestehensgrenze in unserem Beispiel bei 60 Punkten, wäre der Kandidat mit 57 Punkten zwar pro forma durchgefallen, allerdings könnte er aufgrund der Schwankungsbreite um seine gemessene Leistung in Wahrheit auch knapp bestanden haben. Überträgt man diese Erkenntnisse auf alle KandidatInnen einer Prüfung, kann man die Anzahl der Grenzfallkandidaten bestimmen, also all jene Kandidatinnen, die mit Ihrem Prüfungsergebnis so nahe an der Bestehensgrenze liegen, dass ihr jeweiliges Prüfungsresultate falsch positiv oder falsch negativ sein kann. Ergebnisse: Die Anzahl der GrenzfallkandidatInnen in einer Prüfung ist, nicht nur von der Reliabilität abhängig, sondern auch von der Leistung der KandidatInnen, der Varianz, dem Abstand der Bestehensgrenze zum Mittelwert und der Schiefe der Verteilung. Es wird anhand von Modelldaten und konkreten Prüfungsdaten der Zusammenhang zwischen der Reliabilität und der Anzahl der Grenzfallkandidaten auch für den Nichtstatistiker verständlich dargestellt. Es wird gezeigt, warum selbst eine Reliabilität von 0.8 in besonderen Situationen keine befriedigende Präzision der Messung bieten wird, während in manchen OSCEs die Reliabilität fast ignoriert werden kann. Schlussfolgerungen: Die Berechnung oder Schätzung der Grenzfallkandidaten anstatt der Reliabilität verbessert auf anschauliche Weise das Verständnis für die Präzision einer Prüfung. Wenn es darum geht, wie viele Stationen ein summativer OSCE benötigt oder wie lange eine MC-Prüfung dauern soll, sind Grenzfallkandidaten ein valideres Entscheidungskriterium als die Reliabilität. Brennan, R.L. (2003) Generalizability Theory. New York, Springer Downing, S.M. (2004) ‘Reliability: on the reproducibility of assessment data’, Medical Education 2004, 38, 1006–12 Harvill, L.M. (1991) ‘Standard Error of Measurement’, Educational Measurement: Issues and Practice, 33-41 McManus, I.C. (2012) ‘The misinterpretation of the standard error of measurement in medical education: A primer on the problems, pitfalls and peculiarities of the three different standard errors of measurement’ Medical teacher, 34, 569 - 76

Lake-level rise in the late Pleistocene and active subaquatic volcanism since the Holocene in Lake Kivu; East African Rift

The history of Lake Kivu is strongly linked to the activity of the Virunga volcanoes. Subaerial and subaquatic volcanoes, in addition to lake-level changes, shape the subaquatic morphologic and structural features in Lake Kivu's Main Basin. Previous studies revealed that volcanic eruptions blocked the former outlet of the lake to the north in the late Pleistocene, leading to a substantial rise in the lake level and subsequently the present- day thermohaline stratification. Additional studies have speculated that volcanic and seismic activities threaten to trigger a catastrophic release of the large amount of gases dissolved in the lake. The current study presents a bathymetric mapping and seismic profiling survey that covers the volcanically active area of the Main Basin at a resolution that is unprecedented for Lake Kivu. New geomorphologic features identified on the lake floor can accurately describe related lake-floor processes for the first time. The late Pleistocene lowstand is observed at 425 m depth, and volcanic cones, tuff rings, and lava flows observed above this level indicate both subaerial and subaquatic volcanic activities during the Holocene. The geomorphologic analysis yields new implications on the geologic processes that have shaped Lake Kivu's basin, and the presence of young volcanic features can be linked to the possibility of a lake overturn.

Impact of epinephrine and norepinephrine on two dynamic indices in a porcine hemorrhagic shock model

Abstract BACKGROUND: Pulse pressure variations (PPVs) and stroke volume variations (SVVs) are dynamic indices for predicting fluid responsiveness in intensive care unit patients. These hemodynamic markers underscore Frank-Starling law by which volume expansion increases cardiac output (CO). The aim of the present study was to evaluate the impact of the administration of catecholamines on PPV, SVV, and inferior vena cava flow (IVCF). METHODS: In this prospective, physiologic, animal study, hemodynamic parameters were measured in deeply sedated and mechanically ventilated pigs. Systemic hemodynamic and pressure-volume loops obtained by inferior vena cava occlusion were recorded. Measurements were collected during two conditions, that is, normovolemia and hypovolemia, generated by blood removal to obtain a mean arterial pressure value lower than 60 mm Hg. At each condition, CO, IVCF, SVV, and PPV were assessed by catheters and flow meters. Data were compared between the conditions normovolemia and hypovolemia before and after intravenous administrations of norepinephrine and epinephrine using a nonparametric Wilcoxon test. RESULTS: Eight pigs were anesthetized, mechanically ventilated, and equipped. Both norepinephrine and epinephrine significantly increased IVCF and decreased PPV and SVV, regardless of volemic conditions (p < 0.05). However, epinephrine was also able to significantly increase CO regardless of volemic conditions. CONCLUSION: The present study demonstrates that intravenous administrations of norepinephrine and epinephrine increase IVCF, whatever the volemic conditions are. The concomitant decreases in PPV and SVV corroborate the fact that catecholamine administration recruits unstressed blood volume. In this regard, understanding a decrease in PPV and SVV values, after catecholamine administration, as an obvious indication of a restored volemia could be an outright misinterpretation.