An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation: Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon cycle projections

An Ensemble Kalman Filter is applied to assimilate observed tracer fields in various combinations in the Bern3D ocean model. Each tracer combination yields a set of optimal transport parameter values that are used in projections with prescribed CO2 stabilization pathways. The assimilation of temperature and salinity fields yields a too vigorous ventilation of the thermocline and the deep ocean, whereas the inclusion of CFC-11 and radiocarbon improves the representation of physical and biogeochemical tracers and of ventilation time scales. Projected peak uptake rates and cumulative uptake of CO2 by the ocean are around 20% lower for the parameters determined with CFC-11 and radiocarbon as additional target compared to those with salinity and temperature only. Higher surface temperature changes are simulated in the Greenland–Norwegian–Iceland Sea and in the Southern Ocean when CFC-11 is included in the Ensemble Kalman model tuning. These findings highlights the importance of ocean transport calibration for the design of near-term and long-term CO2 emission mitigation strategies and for climate projections.

Assessing sustainable forest management under REDD+: a community-based labour perspective

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus (REDD+) encourages economic support for reducing deforestation and conserving or increasing existing forest carbon stocks. The way in which incentives are structured affects trade-offs between local livelihoods, carbon emission reduction, and the cost-effectiveness of a REDD + programme. Looking at first-hand empirical data from 208 farming households in the Bolivian Amazon froma household economy perspective, our study explores two policy options: 1) compensated reduction of emissions fromold-growth forest clearing for agriculture, and 2) direct payments for labour input into sustainable forest anagement combined with a commitment not to clear old-growth forest. Our results indicate that direct payments for sustainable forest management – an approach that focuses on valuing farmers' labour input – can be more cost-effective than compensated reduction and in some cases is themost appropriate choice for achieving improved household incomes, permanence of changes, avoidance of leakages, and community-based institutional enforcement for sustainable forest management.

Marked global reduction in mGluR5 receptor binding in smokers and ex-smokers determined by [11C]ABP688 positron emission tomography

Nicotine addiction is a major public health problem, resulting in primary glutamatergic dysfunction. We measured the glutamate receptor binding in the human brain and provided direct evidence for the abnormal glutamate system in smokers. Because antagonism of the metabotropic glutamate receptor 5 (mGluR5) reduced nicotine self-administration in rats and mice, mGluR5 is suggested to be involved in nicotine addiction. mGluR5 receptor binding specifically to an allosteric site was observed by using positron emission tomography with [(11)C]ABP688. We found a marked global reduction (20.6%; P < 0.0001) in the mGluR5 distribution volume ratio (DVR) in the gray matter of 14 smokers. The most prominent reductions were found in the bilateral medial orbitofrontal cortex. Compared with 14 nonsmokers, 14 ex-smokers had global reductions in the average gray matter mGluR5 DVR (11.5%; P < 0.005), and there was a significant difference in average gray matter mGluR5 DVR between smokers and ex-smokers (9.2%; P < 0.01). Clinical variables reflecting current nicotine consumption, dependence and abstinence were not correlated with mGluR5 DVR. This decrease in mGluR5 receptor binding may be an adaptation to chronic increases in glutamate induced by chronic nicotine administration, and the decreased down-regulation seen in the ex-smokers could be due to incomplete recovery of the receptors, especially because the ex-smokers were abstinent for only 25 wk on average. These results encourage the development and testing of drugs against addiction that directly target the glutamatergic system.

Electrochemical CO2 Reduction - A Critical View on Fundamentals, Materials and Applications

The electrochemical reduction of CO2 has been extensively studied over the past decades. Nevertheless, this topic has been tackled so far only by using a very fundamental approach and mostly by trying to improve kinetics and selectivities toward specific products in half-cell configurations and liquid-based electrolytes. The main drawback of this approach is that, due to the low solubility of CO2 in water, the maximum CO2 reduction current which could be drawn falls in the range of 0.01–0.02 A cm–2. This is at least an order of magnitude lower current density than the requirement to make CO2-electrolysis a technically and economically feasible option for transformation of CO2 into chemical feedstock or fuel thereby closing the CO2 cycle. This work attempts to give a short overview on the status of electrochemical CO2 reduction with respect to challenges at the electrolysis cell as well as at the catalyst level. We will critically discuss possible pathways to increase both operating current density and conversion efficiency in order to close the gap with established energy conversion technologies.

Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 and climate to explosive volcanic eruptions

Impacts of low-latitude, explosive volcanic eruptions on climate and the carbon cycle are quantified by forcing a comprehensive, fully coupled carbon cycle-climate model with pulse-like stratospheric aerosol optical depth changes. The model represents the radiative and dynamical response of the climate system to volcanic eruptions and simulates a decrease of global and regional atmospheric surface temperature, regionally distinct changes in precipitation, a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and a decrease in atmospheric CO2 after volcanic eruptions. The volcanic-induced cooling reduces overturning rates in tropical soils, which dominates over reduced litter input due to soil moisture decrease, resulting in higher land carbon inventories for several decades. The perturbation in the ocean carbon inventory changes sign from an initial weak carbon sink to a carbon source. Positive carbon and negative temperature anomalies in subsurface waters last up to several decades. The multi-decadal decrease in atmospheric CO2 yields a small additional radiative forcing that amplifies the cooling and perturbs the Earth System on longer time scales than the atmospheric residence time of volcanic aerosols. In addition, century-scale global warming simulations with and without volcanic eruptions over the historical period show that the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds for different physical and biogeochemical parameters such as steric sea level or dissolved oxygen. Results from a suite of sensitivity simulations with different magnitudes of stratospheric aerosol optical depth changes and from global warming simulations show that the carbon cycle-climate sensitivity γ, expressed as change in atmospheric CO2 per unit change in global mean surface temperature, depends on the magnitude and temporal evolution of the perturbation, and time scale of interest. On decadal time scales, modeled γ is several times larger for a Pinatubo-like eruption than for the industrial period and for a high emission, 21st century scenario.

The role of ocean transport in the uptake of anthropogenic CO2

We compare modeled oceanic carbon uptake in response to pulse CO2 emissions using a suite of global ocean models and Earth system models. In response to a CO2 pulse emission of 590 Pg C (corresponding to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 from 278 to 556 ppm), the fraction of CO2 emitted that is absorbed by the ocean is: 37±8%, 56±10%, and 81±4% (model mean ±2σ ) in year 30, 100, and 1000 after the emission pulse, respectively. Modeled oceanic uptake of pulse CO2 on timescales from decades to about a century is strongly correlated with simulated present-day uptake of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and CO2 across all models, while the amount of pulse CO2 absorbed by the ocean from a century to a millennium is strongly correlated with modeled radiocarbon in the deep Southern and Pacific Ocean. However, restricting the analysis to models that are capable of reproducing observations within uncertainty, the correlation is generally much weaker. The rates of surface-to-deep ocean transport are determined for individual models from the instantaneous doubling CO2 simulations, and they are used to calculate oceanic CO2 uptake in response to pulse CO2 emissions of different sizes pulses of 1000 and 5000 Pg C. These results are compared with simulated oceanic uptake of CO2 by a number of models simulations with the coupling of climate-ocean carbon cycle and without it. This comparison demonstrates that the impact of different ocean transport rates across models on oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is of similar magnitude as that of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in a single model, emphasizing the important role of ocean transport in the uptake of anthropogenic CO2.

Spatial heterogeneity and lake morphology affect diffusive greenhouse gas emission estimates of lakes

Most estimates of diffusive flux (F) of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) from lakes are based on single-point flux chamber measurements or on piston velocity (k) modeled from wind speed and single-point measurements of surface water gas concentrations (C-aq). We analyzed spatial variability of F of CH4 and CO2, as well as C-aq and k in 22 European lakes during late summer. F and k were higher in the lake centers, leading to considerable bias when extrapolating single-point chamber measurements to whole-lake estimates. The ratio of our empirical k estimates to wind speed-modeled k was related to lake size and shape, suggesting a lake morphology effect on the relationship between wind speed and k. This indicates that the error inherent to established wind speed models can be reduced by determining k and C-aq at multiple sites on lakes to calibrate wind speed-modeled k to the local system.

Fabric-mechanical property relationships of trabecular bone allografts are altered by supercritical CO2 treatment and gamma sterilization

Tissue grafts are implanted in orthopedic surgery every day. In order to minimize infection risk, bone allografts are often delipidated with supercritical CO2 and sterilized prior to implantation. This treatment may, however, impair the mechanical behavior of the bone graft tissue. The goal of this study was to determine clinically relevant mechanical properties of treated/sterilized human trabecular bone grafts, e.g. the apparent modulus, strength, and the ability to absorb energy during compaction. They were compared with results of identical experiments performed previously on untreated/fresh frozen human trabecular bone from the same anatomical site (Charlebois, 2008). We tested the hypothesis that the morphology–mechanical property relationships of treated cancellous allografts are similar to those of fresh untreated bone. The morphology of the allografts was determined by μCT. Subsequently, cylindrical samples were tested in unconfined and confined compression. To account for various morphologies, the experimental data was fitted to phenomenological mechanical models for elasticity, strength, and dissipated energy density based on bone volume fraction (BV/TV) and the fabric tensor determined by MIL. The treatment/sterilization process does not appear to influence bone graft stiffness. However, strength and energy dissipation of the bone grafts were found to be significantly reduced by 36% to 47% and 66% to 81%, respectively, for a broad range of volume fraction (0.14 < BV/TV < 0.39) and degree of anisotropy (1.24 < DA < 2.18). Since the latter properties are strongly dominated by BV/TV, the clinical consequences of this reduction can be compensated by using grafts with lower porosity. The data of this study suggests that an increase of 5–10% in BV/TV is sufficient to compensate for the reduced post-yield mechanical properties of treated/sterilized bone in monotonic compression. In applications where graft stiffness needs to be matched and strength is not a concern, treated allograft with the same BV/TV as an appropriate fresh bone graft may be used.

Quantifying differences in land use emission estimates implied by definition discrepancies

The quantification of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land use and land use change (eLUC) is essential to understand the drivers of the atmospheric CO2 increase and to inform climate change mitigation policy. Reported values in synthesis reports are commonly derived from different approaches (observation-driven bookkeeping and process-modelling) but recent work has emphasized that inconsistencies between methods may imply substantial differences in eLUC estimates. However, a consistent quantification is lacking and no concise modelling protocol for the separation of primary and secondary components of eLUC has been established. Here, we review differences of eLUC quantification methods and apply an Earth System Model (ESM) of Intermediate Complexity to quantify them. We find that the magnitude of effects due to merely conceptual differences between ESM and offline vegetation model-based quantifications is ~ 20 % for today. Under a future business-as-usual scenario, differences tend to increase further due to slowing land conversion rates and an increasing impact of altered environmental conditions on land-atmosphere fluxes. We establish how coupled Earth System Models may be applied to separate secondary component fluxes of eLUC arising from the replacement of potential C sinks/sources and the land use feedback and show that secondary fluxes derived from offline vegetation models are conceptually and quantitatively not identical to either, nor their sum. Therefore, we argue that synthesis studies should resort to the "least common denominator" of different methods, following the bookkeeping approach where only primary land use emissions are quantified under the assumption of constant environmental boundary conditions.

Inhibition of photosynthesis by high temperature in oak (Quercus pubescens L.) leaves grown under natural conditions closely correlates with a reversible heat-dependent reduction of the activation state of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase

Inhibition of the net photosynthetic CO2 assimilation rate (Pn) by high temperature was examined in oak (Quercus pubescens L.) leaves grown under natural conditions. Combined measurements of gas exchange and chlorophyll (Chl) a fluorescence were employed to differentiate between inhibition originating from heat effects on components of the thylakoid membranes and that resulting from effects on photosynthetic carbon metabolism. Regardless of whether temperature was increased rapidly or gradually, Pn decreased with increasing leaf temperature and was more than 90% reduced at 45 °C as compared to 25 °C. Inhibition of Pn by heat stress did not result from reduced stomatal conductance (gs), as heat-induced reduction of gs was accompanied by an increase of the intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci). Chl a fluorescence measurements revealed that between 25 and 45 °C heat-dependent alterations of thylakoid-associated processes contributed only marginally, if at all, to the inhibition of Pn by heat stress, with photosystem II being remarkably well protected against thermal inactivation. The activation state of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco) decreased from about 90% at 25 °C to less than 30% at 45 °C. Heat stress did not affect Rubisco per se, since full activity could be restored by incubation with CO2 and Mg2+. Western-blot analysis of leaf extracts disclosed the presence of two Rubisco activase polypeptides, but heat stress did not alter the profile of the activase bands. Inhibition of Pn at high leaf temperature could be markedly reduced by artificially increasing Ci. A high Ci also stimulated photosynthetic electron transport and resulted in reduced non-photochemical fluorescence quenching. Recovery experiments showed that heat-dependent inhibition of Pn was largely, if not fully, reversible. The present results demonstrate that in Q. pubescens leaves the thylakoid membranes in general and photosynthetic electron transport in particular were well protected against heat-induced perturbations and that inhibition of Pn by high temperature closely correlated with a reversible heat-dependent reduction of the Rubisco activation state.

The promoting effect of water on the electroreduction of CO2 in acetonitrile

The promoting effect of water on the electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) from non-aqueous solvents has been studied by means of cyclic voltammetry and in-situ surface-enhanced infrared absorption spectroscopy (SEIRAS). CO2 electroreduction on gold is known to be highly selective towards CO formation in aqueous and in non-aqueous media. The use of non-aqueous solvents is advantageous due to the significantly increased solubility of CO2 compared to aqueous systems. However, in the absence of any proton source, extremely high overpotentials are required for the CO2 electroreduction. In this work, we demonstrate for the first time a tremendous accelerating effect of water additives on the electroreduction of CO2 taking place at gold/acetonitrile interfaces. Already moderate amounts of water, in the concentration range of 0.5 to 0.7 M, are sufficient to decrease significantly the overpotential of CO2 reduction while keeping the CO2 concentration as high as in the pure acetonitrile. The effect of water additives on the mechanism of CO2 electroreduction on gold is discussed on the basis of electrochemical and IR spectroscopic data. The results obtained from gold are compared to analogue experiments carried out on platinum.

Potential Future Coral Habitats Around Japan Depend Strongly on Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions

Using the results from the NCAR CSM1.4-coupled global carbon cycle– climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios SRES A2 and B1, we estimated the effects of both global warming and ocean acidification on the future habitats of corals in the seas around Japan during this century. As shown by Yara et al. (Biogeosciences 9:4955–4968,2012), under the high-CO₂-emission scenario (SRES A2), coral habitats will be sandwiched and narrowed between the northern region, where the saturation state of the carbonate mineral aragonite (Ωarag) decreases, and the southern region, where coral bleaching occurs. We found that under the low-emission scenario SRES B1, the coral habitats will also shrink in the northern region by the reduced Ωarag but to a lesser extent than under SRES A2, and in contrast to SRES A2, no bleaching will occur in the southern region. Therefore, coral habitats in the southern region are expected to be largely unaffected by ocean acidification or surface warming under the low-emission scenario. Our results show that potential future coral habitats depend strongly on CO₂ emissions and emphasize the importance of reducing CO₂ emissions to prevent negative impacts on coral habitats.