Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Crystal chemistry and hydrogen bonding of rustumite Ca10(Si2O7)2(SiO4)(OH)2Cl2 with variable OH, Cl, F

Three samples of the skarn mineral rustumite Ca10(Si2O7)2(SiO4)(OH)2Cl2, space group C2/c, a ≈7.6, b ≈ 18.5, c ≈ 15.5 Å, β ≈ 104°, with variable OH, Cl, F content were investigated by electron microprobe, single-crystal X-ray structure refinements, and Raman spectroscopy. “Rust1LCl” is a low chlorine rustumite Ca10(Si2O7)2(SiO4)(OH1.88F0.12)(Cl1.28,OH0.72) from skarns associated with the Rize batholith near Ikizedere, Turkey. “Rust2F” is a F-bearing rustumite Ca10(Si2O7)2(SiO4)(OH1.13F0.87) (Cl1 96OH0.04) from xenoliths in ignimbrites of the Upper Chegem Caldera, Northern Caucasus, Russia. “Rust3LClF” represents a low-Cl, F-bearing rustumite Ca10(Si2O7)2(SiO4)0.87(H4O4)0.13(OH1.01F0.99) (Cl1.00 OH1.00) from altered merwinite skarns of the Birkhin massif, Baikal Lake area, Eastern Siberia, Russia. Rustumite from Birkhin massif is characterized by a significant hydrogarnet-like or fluorine substitution at the apices of the orthosilicate group, leading to specific atomic displacements. The crystal structures including hydrogen positions have been refined from single-crystal X-ray data to R1 = 0.0205 (Rust1_LCl), R1 = 0.0295 (Rust2_F), and R1 = 0.0243 (Rust3_LCl_F), respectively. Depletion in Cl and replacement by OH is associated with smaller unit-cell dimensions. The substitution of OH by F leads to shorter hydrogen bonds O-H⋯F instead of O-H⋯OH. Raman spectra for all samples have been measured and confirm slight strengthening of the hydrogen bonds with uptake of F.This study discusses the complex crystal chemistry of the skarn mineral rustumite and may provide a wider understanding of the chemical reactions related to contact metamorphism of limestones.

Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor imaging for the localisation of insulinomas: a prospective multicentre imaging study

BACKGROUND Small benign insulinomas are hard to localise, leading to difficulties in planning of surgical interventions. We aimed to prospectively assess the insulinoma detection rate of single-photon emission CT in combination with CT (SPECT/CT) with a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor avid radiotracer, and compare detection rates with conventional CT/MRI techniques. METHODS In our prospective imaging study, we enrolled adults aged 25-81 years at centres in Germany, Switzerland, and the UK. Eligible patients had proven clinical and biochemical endogenous hyperinsulinaemic hypoglycaemia and no evidence for metastatic disease on conventional imaging. CT/MRI imaging was done at referring centres according to standard protocols. At three tertiary nuclear medicine centres, we used whole body planar images and SPECT/CT of the abdomen up to 168 h after injection of (111)In-[Lys40(Ahx-DTPA-(111)In)NH2]-exendin-4 ((111)In-DTPA-exendin-4) to identify insulinomas. Consenting patients underwent surgery and imaging findings were confirmed histologically. FINDINGS Between Oct 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2011, we recruited 30 patients. All patients underwent (111)In-DTPA-exendin-4 imaging, 25 patients underwent surgery (with histological analysis), and 27 patients were assessed with CT/MRI. (111)In-DTPA-exendin-4 SPECT/CT correctly detected 19 insulinomas and four additional positive lesions (two islet-cell hyperplasia and two uncharacterised lesions) resulting in a positive predictive value of 83% (95% CI 62-94). One true negative (islet-cell hyperplasia) and one false negative (malignant insulinoma) result was identified in separate patients by (111)In-DTPA-exendin-4 SPECT/CT. Seven patients (23%) were referred to surgery on the basis of (111)In-DTPA-exendin-4 imaging alone. For 23 assessable patients, (111)In-DTPA-exendin-4 SPECT/CT had a higher sensitivity (95% [95% CI 74-100]) than did CT/MRI (47% [27-68]; p=0·011). INTERPRETATION (111)In-DTPA-exendin-4 SPECT/CT could provide a good second-line imaging strategy for patients with negative results on initial imaging with CT/MRI. FUNDING Oncosuisse, the Swiss National Science Foundation, and UK Department of Health.

MEMLS3&a: Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks adapted to include backscattering

The Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS) was originally developed for microwave emissions of snowpacks in the frequency range 5–100 GHz. It is based on six-flux theory to describe radiative transfer in snow including absorption, multiple volume scattering, radiation trapping due to internal reflection and a combination of coherent and incoherent superposition of reflections between horizontal layer interfaces. Here we introduce MEMLS3&a, an extension of MEMLS, which includes a backscatter model for active microwave remote sensing of snow. The reflectivity is decomposed into diffuse and specular components. Slight undulations of the snow surface are taken into account. The treatment of like- and cross-polarization is accomplished by an empirical splitting parameter q. MEMLS3&a (as well as MEMLS) is set up in a way that snow input parameters can be derived by objective measurement methods which avoid fitting procedures of the scattering efficiency of snow, required by several other models. For the validation of the model we have used a combination of active and passive measurements from the NoSREx (Nordic Snow Radar Experiment) campaign in Sodankylä, Finland. We find a reasonable agreement between the measurements and simulations, subject to uncertainties in hitherto unmeasured input parameters of the backscatter model. The model is written in Matlab and the code is publicly available for download through the following website: http://www.iapmw.unibe.ch/research/projects/snowtools/memls.html.

New Clinical Indications for (18)F/(11)C-choline, New Tracers for Positron Emission Tomography and a Promising Hybrid Device for Prostate Cancer Staging: A Systematic Review of the Literature

CONTEXT Radiolabelled choline positron emission tomography has changed the management of prostate cancer patients. However, new emerging radiopharmaceutical agents, like radiolabelled prostate specific membrane antigen, and new promising hybrid imaging will begin new challenges in the diagnostic field. OBJECTIVE The continuous evolution in nuclear medicine has led to the improvement in the detection of recurrent prostate cancer (PCa), particularly distant metastases. New horizons have been opened for radiolabelled choline positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) as a guide for salvage therapy or for the assessment of systemic therapies. In addition, new tracers and imaging tools have been recently tested, providing important information for the management of PCa patients. Herein we discuss: (1) the available evidence in literature on radiolabelled choline PET and their recent indications, (2) the role of alternative radiopharmaceutical agents, and (3) the advantages of a recent hybrid imaging device (PET/magnetic resonance imaging) in PCa. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION Data from recently published (2010-2015), original articles concerning the role of choline PET/CT, new emerging radiotracers, and a new imaging device are analysed. This review is reported according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS In the restaging phase, the detection rate of choline PET varies between 4% and 97%, mainly depending on the site of recurrence and prostate-specific antigen levels. Both 68gallium (68Ga)-prostate specific membrane antigen and 18F-fluciclovine are shown to be more accurate in the detection of recurrent disease as compared with radiolabelled choline PET/CT. Particularly, Ga68-PSMA has a detection rate of 50% and 68%, respectively for prostate-specific antigen levels < 0.5ng/ml and 0.5-2ng/ml. Moreover, 68Ga- PSMA PET/magnetic resonance imaging demonstrated a particularly higher accuracy in detecting PCa than PET/CT. New tracers, such as radiolabelled bombesin or urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor, are promising, but few data in clinical practice are available today. CONCLUSIONS Some limitations emerge from the published papers, both for radiolabelled choline PET/CT and also for new radiopharmaceutical agents. Efforts are still needed to enhance the impact of published data in the world of oncology, in particular when new radiopharmaceuticals are introduced into the clinical arena. PATIENT SUMMARY In the present review, the authors summarise the last evidences in clinical practice for the assessment of prostate cancer, by using nuclear medicine modalities, like positron emission tomography/computed tomography and positron emission tomography/magnetic resonance imaging.