Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

The Bacterial Amyloid Curli Is Associated with Urinary Source Bloodstream Infection

Urinary tract infections are the most common cause of E. coli bloodstream infections (BSI) but the mechanism of bloodstream invasion is poorly understood. Some clinical isolates have been observed to shield themselves with extracellular amyloid fibers called curli at physiologic temperature. We hypothesize that curli fiber assembly at 37 °C promotes bacteremic progression by urinary E. coli strains. Curli expression by cultured E. coli isolates from bacteriuric patients in the presence and absence of bacteremia were compared using Western blotting following amyloid fiber disruption with hexafluoroisopropanol. At 37 °C, urinary isolates from bacteremic patients were more likely to express curli than those from non-bacteremic patients [16/22 (73%) vs. 7/21 (33%); p = 0.01]. No significant difference in curli expression was observed at 30 °C [86% (19/22) vs. 76% (16/21); p = 0.5]. Isolates were clonally diverse between patients, indicating that this phenotype is distributed across multiple lineages. Most same-patient urine and blood isolates were highly related, consistent with direct invasion of urinary bacteria into the bloodstream. 37 °C curli expression was associated with bacteremic progression of urinary E. coli isolates in this population. These findings suggest new future diagnostic and virulence-targeting therapeutic approaches