38 resultados para Box-Jenkins forecasting
em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça
Resumo:
User interfaces are key properties of Business-to-Consumer (B2C) systems, and Web-based reservation systems are an important class of B2C systems. In this paper we show that these systems use a surprisingly broad spectrum of different approaches to handling temporal data in their Web inter faces. Based on these observations and on a literature analysis we develop a Morphological Box to present the main options for handling temporal data and give examples. The results indicate that the present state of developing and maintaining B2C systems has not been much influenced by modern Web Engi neering concepts and that there is considerable potential for improvement.
Resumo:
Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.
Resumo:
A laboratory study was performed to assess the influence of beveling the margins of cavities and the effects on marginal adaptation of the application of ultrasound during setting and initial light curing. After minimal access cavities had been prepared with an 80 microm diamond bur, 80 box-only Class II cavities were prepared mesially and distally in 40 extracted human molars using four different oscillating diamond coated instruments: (A) a U-shaped PCS insert as the non-beveled control (EMS), (B) Bevelshape (Intensiv), (C) SonicSys (KaVo) and (D) SuperPrep (KaVo). In groups B-D, the time taken for additional bevel finishing was measured. The cavities were filled with a hybrid composite material in three increments. Ultrasound was also applied to one cavity per tooth before and during initial light curing (10 seconds). The specimens were subjected to thermomechanical stress in a computer-controlled masticator device. Marginal quality was assessed by scanning electron microscopy and the results were compared statistically. The additional time required for finishing was B > D > C (p < or = 0.05). In all groups, thermomechanical loading resulted in a decrease in marginal quality. Beveling resulted in higher values for "continuous" margins compared with that of the unbeveled controls. The latter showed better marginal quality at the axial walls when ultrasound was used. Beveling seems essential for good marginal adaptation but requires more preparation time. The use of ultrasonic vibrations may improve the marginal quality of unbeveled fillings and warrants further investigation.