A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

Geometric facial comparisons in speed-check photographs

In many cases, it is not possible to call the motorists to account for their considerable excess in speeding, because they deny being the driver on the speed-check photograph. An anthropological comparison of facial features using a photo-to-photo comparison can be very difficult depending on the quality of the photographs. One difficulty of that analysis method is that the comparison photographs of the presumed driver are taken with a different camera or camera lens and from a different angle than for the speed-check photo. To take a comparison photograph with exactly the same camera setup is almost impossible. Therefore, only an imprecise comparison of the individual facial features is possible. The geometry and position of each facial feature, for example the distances between the eyes or the positions of the ears, etc., cannot be taken into consideration. We applied a new method using 3D laser scanning, optical surface digitalization, and photogrammetric calculation of the speed-check photo, which enables a geometric comparison. Thus, the influence of the focal length and the distortion of the objective lens are eliminated and the precise position and the viewing direction of the speed-check camera are calculated. Even in cases of low-quality images or when the face of the driver is partly hidden, good results are delivered using this method. This new method, Geometric Comparison, is evaluated and validated in a prepared study which is described in this article.

Dopaminergic modulation of rapid reality adaptation in thinking

Dopamine has long held a prominent role in the interpretation of schizophrenia and other psychoses. Clinical studies on confabulation and disorientation, disorders marked by a confusion of reality in thinking, indicated that the ability to keep thinking in phase with reality depends on a process suppressing the interference of upcoming memories that do not refer to ongoing reality. A host of animal studies and a recent clinical study suggested that this suppression might correspond to the phasic inhibition of dopaminergic neurons in response to the absence of expected outcomes. In this study, we tested healthy subjects with a difficult version of a memory paradigm on which confabulating patients had failed. Subjects participated in three test sessions, in which they received in double-blind, randomized fashion L-dopa, risperidone, or placebo. We found that l-dopa, in comparison with risperidone, impaired performance in a highly specific way, which corresponded to the pattern of patients with reality confusion. Specifically, they had an increase of false positive responses, while overall memory performance and reaction times were unaffected. We conclude that dopaminergic transmission influences the ability to rapidly adapt thinking to ongoing reality.

A Bootstrap Test for the Probability of Ruin in the Compound Poisson Risk Process

In this article we propose a bootstrap test for the probability of ruin in the compound Poisson risk process. We adopt the P-value approach, which leads to a more complete assessment of the underlying risk than the probability of ruin alone. We provide second-order accurate P-values for this testing problem and consider both parametric and nonparametric estimators of the individual claim amount distribution. Simulation studies show that the suggested bootstrap P-values are very accurate and outperform their analogues based on the asymptotic normal approximation.

[Hand transplantation - fiction or reality?]

Hand transplantation has been indicated in selective patients after traumatic upper extremity amputation and only performed in a few centers around the world for the last decade. In comparison to solid organ transplantation, there is a challenge to overcome the host immunological barrier due to complex antigenicity of the different included tissues, the skin being the most susceptible to rejection. Patients require lifelong immunosuppression for non life-threatening conditions. Minimization of maintenance immunosuppression represents the key step for promoting wider applicability of hand transplantation. Current research is working towards the understanding mechanisms of composite tissue allograft (CTA) rejection. Worldwide, in 51 patients 72 hands (21 double hand transplants) and once both arms have been successfully transplanted since 1998.