Electoral and Financial Bookkeeping: A Comparison of Pre-Electoral Pledges on Public Spending and the Outcome of Post-Electoral Budget Debates

In the wake of the financial crisis, budgetary discipline has taken centre stage in politics. More than ever a country's budget mirrors the true policy preferences of the legislative majority beyond all political discourse and cheap talk. The paper sheds light on mandate fulfilment in the field of public spending and fiscal policy in general. Based on previous work on pledge fulfilment in Switzerland the paper compares publicised pre-electoral statements of MPs on public spending and the development of the public finances with their post-electoral legislative behaviour during budget debates and votes. The findings of the paper confirm the results of the aforementioned earlier studies and point to the potential of budgetary statements for future mandate fulfilment research.

EEG microstate duration and syntax in acute, medication-naive, first-episode schizophrenia: a multi-center study

In young, first-episode, productive, medication-naive patients with schizophrenia, EEG microstates (building blocks of mentation) tend to be shortened. Koenig et al. [Koenig, T., Lehmann, D., Merlo, M., Kochi, K., Hell, D., Koukkou, M., 1999. A deviant EEG brain microstate in acute, neuroleptic-naïve schizophrenics at rest. European Archives of Psychiatry and Clinical Neuroscience 249, 205–211] suggested that shortening concerned specific microstate classes. Sequence rules (microstate concatenations, syntax) conceivably might also be affected. In 27 patients of the above type and 27 controls, from three centers, multichannel resting EEG was analyzed into microstates using k-means clustering of momentary potential topographies into four microstate classes (A–D). In patients, microstates were shortened in classes B and D (from 80 to 70 ms and from 94 to 82 ms, respectively), occurred more frequently in classes A and C, and covered more time in A and less in B. Topography differed only in class B where LORETA tomography predominantly showed stronger left and anterior activity in patients. Microstate concatenation (syntax) generally were disturbed in patients; specifically, the class sequence A→C→D→A predominated in controls, but was reversed in patients (A→D→C→A). In schizophrenia, information processing in certain classes of mental operations might deviate because of precocious termination. The intermittent occurrence might account for Bleuler's “double bookkeeping.” The disturbed microstate syntax opens a novel physiological comparison of mental operations between patients and controls.

Spring-summer temperatures reconstructed for northern Switzerland and southwestern Germany from winter rye harvest dates, 1454–1970

This paper presents a unique 517-yr long documentary data-based reconstruction of spring-summer (MAMJJ) temperatures for northern Switzerland and southwestern Germany from 1454 to 1970. It is composed of 25 partial series of winter grain (secale cereale) harvest starting dates (WGHD) that are partly based on harvest related bookkeeping of institutions (hospitals, municipalities), partly on (early) phenological observations. The resulting main Basel WGHD series was homogenised with regard to dating style, data type and altitude. The calibration and verification approach was applied using the homogenous HISTALP temperature series from 1774–1824 for calibration (r = 0.78) and from 1920–1970 for verification (r = 0.75). The latter result even suffers from the weak data base available for 1870– 1950. Temperature reconstructions based on WGHD are more influenced by spring temperatures than those based on grape harvest dates (GHD), because rye in contrast to vines already begins to grow as soon as sunlight brings the plant to above freezing. The earliest and latest harvest dates were checked for consistency with narrative documentary weather reports. Comparisons with other European documentarybased GHD and WGHD temperature reconstructions generally reveal significant correlations decreasing with the distance from Switzerland. The new Basel WGHD series shows better skills in representing highly climate change sensitive variations of Swiss Alpine glaciers than available GHD series.

Quantifying differences in land use emission estimates implied by definition discrepancies

The quantification of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land use and land use change (eLUC) is essential to understand the drivers of the atmospheric CO2 increase and to inform climate change mitigation policy. Reported values in synthesis reports are commonly derived from different approaches (observation-driven bookkeeping and process-modelling) but recent work has emphasized that inconsistencies between methods may imply substantial differences in eLUC estimates. However, a consistent quantification is lacking and no concise modelling protocol for the separation of primary and secondary components of eLUC has been established. Here, we review differences of eLUC quantification methods and apply an Earth System Model (ESM) of Intermediate Complexity to quantify them. We find that the magnitude of effects due to merely conceptual differences between ESM and offline vegetation model-based quantifications is ~ 20 % for today. Under a future business-as-usual scenario, differences tend to increase further due to slowing land conversion rates and an increasing impact of altered environmental conditions on land-atmosphere fluxes. We establish how coupled Earth System Models may be applied to separate secondary component fluxes of eLUC arising from the replacement of potential C sinks/sources and the land use feedback and show that secondary fluxes derived from offline vegetation models are conceptually and quantitatively not identical to either, nor their sum. Therefore, we argue that synthesis studies should resort to the "least common denominator" of different methods, following the bookkeeping approach where only primary land use emissions are quantified under the assumption of constant environmental boundary conditions.