Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia – fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys – in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.

Conservation of threatened habitat types under future climate change – Lessons from plant-distribution models and current extinction trends in southern Germany

A higher risk of future range losses as a result of climate change is expected to be one of the main drivers of extinction trends in vascular plants occurring in habitat types of high conservation value. Nevertheless, the impact of the climate changes of the last 60 years on the current distribution and extinction patterns of plants is still largely unclear. We applied species distribution models to study the impact of environmental variables (climate, soil conditions, land cover, topography), on the current distribution of 18 vascular plant species characteristic of three threatened habitat types in southern Germany: (i) xero-thermophilous vegetation, (ii) mesophilous mountain grasslands (mountain hay meadows and matgrass communities), and (iii) wetland habitats (bogs, fens, and wet meadows). Climate and soil variables were the most important variables affecting plant distributions at a spatial level of 10 × 10 km. Extinction trends in our study area revealed that plant species which occur in wetland habitats faced higher extinction risks than those in xero-thermophilous vegetation, with the risk for species in mesophilous mountain grasslands being intermediary. For three plant species characteristic either of mesophilous mountain grasslands or wetland habitats we showed exemplarily that extinctions from 1950 to the present day have occurred at the edge of the species’ current climatic niche, indicating that climate change has likely been the main driver of extinction. This is largely consistent with current extinction trends reported in other studies. Our study indicates that the analysis of past extinctions is an appropriate means to assess the impact of climate change on species and that vulnerability to climate change is both species- and habitat-specific.

Superorganism resilience: eusociality and susceptibility of ecosystem service providing insects to stressors

Insects provide crucial ecosystem services for human food security and maintenance of biodiversity. Therefore, major declines in wild insects combined with losses of managed bees have raised great concern. Recent data suggest that honey bees appear to be less susceptible to stressors compared to other species. Here, we argue that eusociality plays a key role for the susceptibility of insects to environmental stressors due to superorganism resilience, which can be defined as the ability to tolerate the loss of somatic cells (= workers) as long as the germ line (= reproduction) is maintained. Life history and colony size appear critical for such resilience. Future conservation efforts should take superorganism resilience into account to safeguard ecosystem services by insects.

Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

Candida species distribution and antifungal susceptibility testing according to European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing and new vs. old Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute clinical breakpoints: a 6-year prospective candidaemia survey from the fungal infection network of Switzerland

We analyzed the species distribution of Candida blood isolates (CBIs), prospectively collected between 2004 and 2009 within FUNGINOS, and compared their antifungal susceptibility according to clinical breakpoints defined by the European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST) in 2013, and the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) in 2008 (old CLSI breakpoints) and 2012 (new CLSI breakpoints). CBIs were tested for susceptiblity to fluconazole, voriconazole and caspofungin by microtitre broth dilution (Sensititre® YeastOne™ test panel). Of 1090 CBIs, 675 (61.9%) were C. albicans, 191 (17.5%) C. glabrata, 64 (5.9%) C. tropicalis, 59 (5.4%) C. parapsilosis, 33 (3%) C. dubliniensis, 22 (2%) C. krusei and 46 (4.2%) rare Candida species. Independently of the breakpoints applied, C. albicans was almost uniformly (>98%) susceptible to all three antifungal agents. In contrast, the proportions of fluconazole- and voriconazole-susceptible C. tropicalis and F-susceptible C. parapsilosis were lower according to EUCAST/new CLSI breakpoints than to the old CLSI breakpoints. For caspofungin, non-susceptibility occurred mainly in C. krusei (63.3%) and C. glabrata (9.4%). Nine isolates (five C. tropicalis, three C. albicans and one C. parapsilosis) were cross-resistant to azoles according to EUCAST breakpoints, compared with three isolates (two C. albicans and one C. tropicalis) according to new and two (2 C. albicans) according to old CLSI breakpoints. Four species (C. albicans, C. glabrata, C. tropicalis and C. parapsilosis) represented >90% of all CBIs. In vitro resistance to fluconazole, voriconazole and caspofungin was rare among C. albicans, but an increase of non-susceptibile isolates was observed among C. tropicalis/C. parapsilosis for the azoles and C. glabrata/C. krusei for caspofungin according to EUCAST and new CLSI breakpoints compared with old CLSI breakpoints.

Bacteria causing bacteremia in pediatric cancer patients presenting with febrile neutropenia – species distribution and susceptibility patterns

PURPOSE Infections are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in pediatric cancer patients. The aim of this study was to establish the microbiological spectrum and the susceptibility patterns of bacteremia-causing bacteria in pediatric cancer patients with febrile neutropenia in relation to the use of prophylactic and empirical antibiotics. METHODS We analyzed positive blood cultures of pediatric cancer patients presenting with febrile neutropenia between 2004 and 2011 in Groningen and Amsterdam (the Netherlands) and in Bern (Switzerland), using different antibiotic prophylactic and empirical regimens. RESULTS A total of 156 patients with 202 bacteremias, due to 248 bacteria species, were enrolled. The majority (73%) of bacteremias were caused by Gram-positive bacteria. Gram-negative bacteria, especially Pseudomonas aeruginosa, were observed significantly more often in Bern, where no fluoroquinolone prophylaxis was used. Ciprofloxacin-resistant bacteria were cultured more often from patients who did receive ciprofloxacin prophylaxis, compared to the patients who did not (57 versus 11%, p = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS Gram-positive bacteria predominated in this study. We showed that the use of prophylactic antibiotics in pediatric cancer patients was associated with increased resistance rates, which needs further study. The strategy for empiric antimicrobial therapy for febrile neutropenia should be adapted to local antibiotic resistance patterns.

A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

Counterbalancing effects of competition for resources and facilitation against grazing in alpine snowbed communities

Alpine snowbeds are habitats where the major limiting factors for plant growth are herbivory and a small time window for growth due to late snowmelt. Despite these limitations, snowbed vegetation usually forms a dense carpet of palatable plants due to favourable abiotic conditions for plant growth within the short growing season. These environmental characteristics make snowbeds particularly interesting to study the interplay of facilitation and competition. We hypothesised an interplay between resource competition and facilitation against herbivory. Further, we investigated whether these predicted neighbour effects were species-specific and/or dependent on ontogeny, and whether the balance of positive and negative plant–plant interactions shifted along a snowmelt gradient. We determined the neighbour effects by means of neighbour removal experiments along the snowmelt gradient, and linear mixed model analyses. The results showed that the effects of neighbour removal were weak but generally consistent among species and snowmelt dates, and depended on whether biomass production or survival was considered. Higher total biomass and increased fruiting in removal plots indicated that plants competed for nutrients, water, and light, thereby supporting the hypothesis of prevailing competition for resources in snowbeds. However, the presence of neighbours reduced herbivory and thereby also facilitated survival. For plant growth the facilitative effects against herbivores in snowbeds counterbalanced competition for resources, leading to a weak negative net effect. Overall the neighbour effects were not species-specific and did not change with snowmelt date. Our finding of counterbalancing effects of competition and facilitation within a plant community is of special theoretical value for species distribution models and can explain the success of models that give primary importance to abiotic factors and tend to overlook interrelations between biotic and abiotic effects on plants.