A benchmark of kriging-based infill criteria for noisy optimization

Responses of many real-world problems can only be evaluated perturbed by noise. In order to make an efficient optimization of these problems possible, intelligent optimization strategies successfully coping with noisy evaluations are required. In this article, a comprehensive review of existing kriging-based methods for the optimization of noisy functions is provided. In summary, ten methods for choosing the sequential samples are described using a unified formalism. They are compared on analytical benchmark problems, whereby the usual assumption of homoscedastic Gaussian noise made in the underlying models is meet. Different problem configurations (noise level, maximum number of observations, initial number of observations) and setups (covariance functions, budget, initial sample size) are considered. It is found that the choices of the initial sample size and the covariance function are not critical. The choice of the method, however, can result in significant differences in the performance. In particular, the three most intuitive criteria are found as poor alternatives. Although no criterion is found consistently more efficient than the others, two specialized methods appear more robust on average.

Basic symptoms and ultrahigh risk criteria: symptom development in the initial prodromal state

Symptom development during the prodromal phase of psychosis was explored retrospectively in first-episode psychosis patients with special emphasis on the assumed time-related syndromic sequence of "unspecific symptoms (UN)-predictive basic symptoms (BS)-attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS)-(transient) psychotic symptoms (PS)." Onset of syndromes was defined by first occurrence of any of their respective symptoms. Group means were inspected for time differences between syndromes and influence of sociodemographic and clinical characteristics on the recalled sequence. The sequence of "UN-BS/APS-PS" was clearly supported, and both BS and, though slightly less, APS were highly sensitive. However, onset of BS and APS did not show significant time difference in the whole sample (N = 126; 90% schizophrenia), although when each symptom is considered independently, APS tended to occur later than first predictive BS. On descriptive level, about one-third each recalled an earlier, equal and later onset of BS compared with APS. Level of education showed the greatest impact on the recall of the hypothesized sequence. Thereby, those with a higher school-leaving certificate supported the assumed sequence, whereas those of low educational background retrospectively dated APS before BS. These findings rather point out recognition and recall bias inherent to the retrospective design than true group characteristics. Future long-term prospective studies will have to explore this conclusively. However, as regards the criteria, the results support the notion of BS as at least a complementary approach to the ultrahigh risk criteria, which may also allow for an earlier detection of psychosis.

The pulmonary embolism rule-out criteria (PERC) rule does not safely exclude pulmonary embolism

The Pulmonary Embolism Rule-out Criteria (PERC) rule is a clinical diagnostic rule designed to exclude pulmonary embolism (PE) without further testing. We sought to externally validate the diagnostic performance of the PERC rule alone and combined with clinical probability assessment based on the revised Geneva score.

Implementation of raltegravir in routine clinical practice: selection criteria for choosing this drug, virologic response rates, and characteristics of failures

Raltegravir (RAL) achieved remarkable virologic suppression rates in randomized-clinical trials, but today efficacy data and factors for treatment failures in a routine clinical care setting are limited.

What percentage of people in the general population satisfies the current clinical at-risk criteria of psychosis?

The clinical validity of at-risk criteria of psychosis had been questioned based on epidemiological studies that have reported much higher prevalence and annual incidence rates of psychotic-like experiences (PLEs as assessed by either self rating questionnaires or layperson interviews) in the general population than of the clinical phenotype of psychotic disorders (van Os et al., 2009). Thus, it is unclear whether “current at-risk criteria reflect behaviors so common among adolescents and young adults that a valid distinction between ill and non-ill persons is difficult” (Carpenter, 2009). We therefore assessed the 3-month prevalence of at-risk criteria by means of telephone interviews in a randomly drawn general population sample from the at-risk age segment (age 16–35 years) in the Canton Bern, Switzerland. Eighty-five of 102 subjects had valid phone numbers, 21 of these subjects refused (although 6 of them signaled willingness to participate at a later time), 4 could not be contacted. Sixty subjects (71% of the enrollment fraction) participated. Two participants met exclusion criteria (one for being psychotic, one for lack of language skills). Twenty-two at-risk symptoms were assessed for their prevalence and severity within the 3 months prior to the interview by trained clinical raters using (i) the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS; Miller et al., 2002) for the evaluation of 5 attenuated psychotic and 3 brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (APS, BLIPS) as well as state-trait criteria of the ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria and (ii) the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument, Adult version (SPI-A; Schultze-Lutter et al., 2007) for the evaluation of the 14 basic symptoms included in COPER and COGDIS (Schultze-Lutter et al., 2008). Further, psychiatric axis I diagnoses were assessed by means of the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview, M.I.N.I. (Sheehan et al., 1998), and psychosocial functioning by the Scale of Occupational and Functional Assessment (SOFAS; APA, 1994). All interviewees felt ‘rather’ or ‘very’ comfortable with the interview. Of the 58 included subjects, only 1 (2%) fulfilled APS criteria by reporting the attenuated, non-delusional idea of his mind being literally read by others at a frequency of 2–3 times a week that had newly occurred 6 weeks ago. BLIPS, COPER, COGDIS or state-trait UHR criteria were not reported. Yet, twelve subjects (21%) described sub-threshold at-risk symptoms: 7 (12%) reported APS relevant symptoms but did not meet time/frequency criteria of APS, and 9 (16%) reported COPER and/or COGDIS relevant basic symptoms but at an insufficient frequency or as a trait lacking increase in severity; 4 of these 12 subjects reported both sub-threshold APS and sub-threshold basic symptoms. Table 1 displays type and frequency of the sub-threshold at-risk symptoms.

Accuracy of immunological criteria for identifying virological failure in children on antiretroviral therapy - The IeDEA Southern Africa Collaboration

Objectives  To determine the diagnostic accuracy of World Health Organization (WHO) 2010 and 2006 as well as United States Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) 2008 definitions of immunological failure for identifying virological failure (VF) in children on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Methods  Analysis of data from children (<16 years at ART initiation) at South African ART sites at which CD4 count/per cent and HIV-RNA monitoring are performed 6-monthly. Incomplete virological suppression (IVS) was defined as failure to achieve ≥1 HIV-RNA ≤400 copies/ml between 6 and 15 months on ART and viral rebound (VR) as confirmed HIV-RNA ≥5000 copies/ml in a child on ART for ≥18 months who had achieved suppression during the first year on treatment. Results  Among 3115 children [median (interquartile range) age 48 (20-84) months at ART initiation] on treatment for ≥1 year, sensitivity of immunological criteria for IVS was 10%, 6% and 26% for WHO 2006, WHO 2010 and DHHS 2008 criteria, respectively. The corresponding positive predictive values (PPV) were 31%, 20% and 20%. Diagnostic accuracy for VR was determined in 2513 children with ≥18 months of follow-up and virological suppression during the first year on ART with sensitivity of 5% (WHO 2006/2010) and 27% (DHHS 2008). PPV results were 42% (WHO 2010), 43% (WHO 2006) and 20% (DHHS 2008). Conclusion  Current immunological criteria are unable to correctly identify children failing ART virologically. Improved access to viral load testing is needed to reliably identify VF in children.

Organ donation in Switzerland: a survey on marginal or extended criteria donors (ECD) from 1998 to 2009

The widening gap between the numbers of patients on the waiting list for organ transplantation and the insufficient numbers of organ donors results in the use of "critical" donors, so-called marginal donors or extended criteria donors. Data concerning the evaluation of extended criteria donors (ECD) in Switzerland are sparse.

The canine hair cycle - a guide for the assessment of morphological and immunohistochemical criteria

The hair follicle has a lifelong capacity to cycle through recurrent phases of controlled growth (anagen), regression (catagen) and quiescence (telogen), each associated with specific morphological changes. A comprehensive classification scheme is available for mice to distinguish the cycle stages anagen I-VI, catagen I-VIII and telogen. For dogs, such a classification system does not exist, although alopecia associated with hair cycle arrest is common. We applied analogous morphological criteria and various staining techniques to subdivide the canine hair cycle stages to the same extent as has been done in mice. Of all the staining techniques applied, haematoxylin and eosin stain, Sacpic, Masson Fontana and immunohistochemistry for vimentin and laminin proved to be most useful. To evaluate the applicability of our criteria, we investigated skin biopsies from healthy beagle dogs (n=20; biopsies from shoulder and thigh) kept in controlled conditions. From each biopsy, at least 50 hair follicles were assessed. Statistical analysis revealed that 30% of the follicles were in anagen (12% early and 18% late), 8% in catagen (2% early, 5% late and 1% not determinable) and 27% in telogen. Thirty-five per cent of hair follicles could not be assigned to a specific cycle stage because not all follicles within one biopsy were oriented perfectly. In conclusion, this guide will not only be helpful for the investigation of alopecic disorders and possibly their pathogenesis, but may also serve as a basis for research projects in which the comparison of hair cycle stages is essential, e.g. comparative analysis of gene expression patterns.

Establishment of diagnostic criteria for feline nonflea-induced hypersensitivity dermatitis

Hypersensitivity dermatitides (HD) are commonly seen in cats, and they are usually caused by environmental, food and/or flea allergens. Affected cats normally present with one of the following clinical reaction patterns: head and neck excoriations, usually symmetrical self-induced alopecia, eosinophilic skin lesions or miliary dermatitis. Importantly, none of these clinical presentations is considered to be pathognomonic for HD skin diseases, and the diagnosis of HD is usually based on the exclusion of other pruritic diseases and on a positive response to therapy. The objectives of this study were to propose sets of criteria for the diagnosis of nonflea-induced HD (NFHD). We recruited 501 cats with pruritus and skin lesions and compared clinical parameters between cats with NFHD (encompassing those with nonflea, nonfood HD and those with food HD), flea HD and other pruritic conditions. Using simulated annealing techniques, we established two sets of proposed criteria for the following two different clinical situations: (i) the diagnosis of NFHD in a population of pruritic cats; and (ii) the diagnosis of NFHD after exclusion of cats with flea HD. These criteria sets were associated with good sensitivity and specificity and may be useful for homogeneity of enrolment in clinical trials and to evaluate the probability of diagnosis of NFHD in clinical practice. Finally, these criteria were not useful to differentiate cats with NFHD from those with food HD.