Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa

The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model indicates that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number might have dropped to around unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.

Rapid drop in the reproduction number during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experienced a confined rural outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) with 69 reported cases from July to October 2014. Understanding the transmission dynamics during the outbreak can provide important information for anticipating and controlling future EVD epidemics. I fitted an EVD transmission model to previously published data of this outbreak and estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 = 5.2 (95% CI [4.0-6.7]). The model suggests that the net reproduction number Rt fell below unity 28 days (95% CI [25-34] days) after the onset of symptoms in the index case. This study adds to previous epidemiological descriptions of the 2014 EVD outbreak in DRC, and is consistent with the notion that a rapid implementation of control interventions helped reduce further spread.

Dynamics of a Tularemia Outbreak in a Closely Monitored Free-Roaming Population of Wild House Mice.

Infectious disease outbreaks can be devastating because of their sudden occurrence, as well as the complexity of monitoring and controlling them. Outbreaks in wildlife are even more challenging to observe and describe, especially when small animals or secretive species are involved. Modeling such infectious disease events is relevant to investigating their dynamics and is critical for decision makers to accomplish outbreak management. Tularemia, caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, is a potentially lethal zoonosis. Of the few animal outbreaks that have been reported in the literature, only those affecting zoo animals have been closely monitored. Here, we report the first estimation of the basic reproduction number R0 of an outbreak in wildlife caused by F. tularensis using quantitative modeling based on a susceptible-infected-recovered framework. We applied that model to data collected during an extensive investigation of an outbreak of tularemia caused by F. tularensis subsp. holarctica (also designated as type B) in a closely monitored, free-roaming house mouse (Mus musculus domesticus) population in Switzerland. Based on our model and assumptions, the best estimated basic reproduction number R0 of the current outbreak is 1.33. Our results suggest that tularemia can cause severe outbreaks in small rodents. We also concluded that the outbreak self-exhausted in approximately three months without administrating antibiotics.

Case and partnership reproduction numbers for a curable sexually transmitted infection

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are, by definition, transmitted between sexual partners. For curable STIs an infected index case can potentially re-infect the same partner multiple times. Thus, R0, the average number of secondary infections one typical infected individual will produce during his or her infectious period is not necessarily the same as the average number of secondary cases (infected persons). Here we introduce the new concept of the case reproduction number (Rc). In addition, we define the partnership reproduction number (Rp) as the average number of secondary partnerships consisting of two infected individuals one typical infected individual will produce over his or her infectious lifetime. Rp takes into account clearance and re-infection within partnerships, which results in a prolongation of the duration of the infectious period. The two new reproduction numbers were derived for a deterministic pair model with serial monogamous partnerships using infection parameters for Chlamydia trachomatis, an example of a curable STI. We showed that re-infection within partnerships means that curable STIs can be sustained endemically even when the average number of secondary cases a person produces during his or her infectious period is below one.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study

Background New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. Methodology/Principal Findings The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995–1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. Conclusions/Significance The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: Transmission dynamics and rapid control.

International air travel has already spread Ebola virus disease (EVD) to major cities as part of the unprecedented epidemic that started in Guinea in December 2013. An infected airline passenger arrived in Nigeria on July 20, 2014 and caused an outbreak in Lagos and then Port Harcourt. After a total of 20 reported cases, including 8 deaths, Nigeria was declared EVD free on October 20, 2014. We quantified the impact of early control measures in preventing further spread of EVD in Nigeria and calculated the risk that a single undetected case will cause a new outbreak. We fitted an EVD transmission model to data from the outbreak in Nigeria and estimated the reproduction number of the index case at 9.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.2-15.6). We also found that the net reproduction number fell below unity 15 days (95% CI: 11-21 days) after the arrival of the index case. Hence, our study illustrates the time window for successful containment of EVD outbreaks caused by infected air travelers.

Reporting Experiments in Homeopathic Basic Research—Description of the Checklist Development

The objective of this study was to develop a criteria catalogue serving as a guideline for authors to improve quality of reporting experiments in basic research in homeopathy. A Delphi Process was initiated including three rounds of adjusting and phrasing plus two consensus conferences. European researchers who published experimental work within the last 5 years were involved. A checklist for authors provide a catalogue with 23 criteria. The “Introduction” should focus on underlying hypotheses, the homeopathic principle investigated and state if experiments are exploratory or confirmatory. “Materials and methods” should comprise information on object of investigation, experimental setup, parameters, intervention and statistical methods. A more detailed description on the homeopathic substances, for example, manufacture, dilution method, starting point of dilution is required. A further result of the Delphi process is to raise scientists' awareness of reporting blinding, allocation, replication, quality control and system performance controls. The part “Results” should provide the exact number of treated units per setting which were included in each analysis and state missing samples and drop outs. Results presented in tables and figures are as important as appropriate measures of effect size, uncertainty and probability. “Discussion” in a report should depict more than a general interpretation of results in the context of current evidence but also limitations and an appraisal of aptitude for the chosen experimental model. Authors of homeopathic basic research publications are encouraged to apply our checklist when preparing their manuscripts. Feedback is encouraged on applicability, strength and limitations of the list to enable future revisions.

Management, feeding, production, reproduction and udder health on organic and conventional Swiss dairy farms

Organic dairy farms (OP; n=60) and conventional dairy farms (integrated production, IP; n=60), matched in size, location, and agricultural zone (altitude), were studied for possible differences in management, feeding, production, reproduction and udder health. OP and IP farms were similar in size (17.7 and 16.9 ha), milk quota (65900 and 70,000 kg/year), cow number (14 and 15), cow age (5.3 and 5.2 years), housing of cows of the Simmental x Red Holstein or Holstein breeds (87 and 75%; 45 and 60%), but differed significantly with respect to loose housing systems (18 and 7%), outside paddocks (98 and 75%), energy-corrected 305-d milk yield (5,695 and 6,059 kg), milk protein content (31.8 and 32.7 g/kg), use of bucket milking systems (73 and 33%), observance of regular (12-h) milking intervals (47 and 68%), routine application of the California-Mastitis-Test (10 and 28%), teat dipping after milking (25 and 43%) and blanket dry cow treatments (0 and 45%). Milk somatic cell counts on OP and IP farms (119 000 and 117,000/mL) and reproduction data were similar and there were no significant differences between OP and IP farms as concerns available feeds, planning and management of feeding. Alternative veterinary treatments were used more often on OP than IP farms (55 and 17%). Main causes for cow replacements on OP and IP farms were fertility disorders (both 45%), age (40 and 42%), sale (30 and 37%) and udder health (35 and 13%).Between OP and IP Swiss dairy farms thus relatively few larger differences were found.

[Antirheumatic therapy and reproduction. The influence on fertility, pregnancy and breast feeding]

Antirheumatic drugs can have a negative effect on reproduction in both men and women. Possible negative effects are impairment of fertility, harmful effects on the fetus and adverse effects on the breastfed child. In women non-steroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAID) and cyclophosphamide can impair fertility. In men infertility can result from the use of salazopyrine and cyclophosphamide. A desire for children should be taken into account before the start of disease modifying drugs (DMARD). Treatment with NSAID is possible at some stages of pregnancy as well as during lactation. A limited number of DMARD is compatible with pregnancy and is presented. Cytostatic drugs and leflunomide must be prophylactically withdrawn before a planned pregnancy. TNF alpha antagonists should be discontinued at the start of pregnancy. Safe birth control must be practised during therapy with drugs that are gonadotoxic or teratogenic. Treatment with immunosuppressive drugs during lactation is limited because of insufficient documentation of safety for the breastfed child.

Interference of endocrine disrupting chemicals with aromatase CYP19 expression or activity, and consequences for reproduction of teleost fish

Many natural and synthetic compounds present in the environment exert a number of adverse effects on the exposed organisms, leading to endocrine disruption, for which they were termed endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). A decrease in reproduction success is one of the most well-documented signs of endocrine disruption in fish. Estrogens are steroid hormones involved in the control of important reproduction-related processes, including sexual differentiation, maturation and a variety of others. Careful spatial and temporal balance of estrogens in the body is crucial for proper functioning. At the final step of estrogen biosynthesis, cytochrome P450 aromatase, encoded by the cyp19 gene, converts androgens into estrogens. Modulation of aromatase CYP19 expression and function can dramatically alter the rate of estrogen production, disturbing the local and systemic levels of estrogens. In the present review, the current progress in CYP19 characterization in teleost fish is summarized and the potential of several classes of EDCs to interfere with CYP19 expression and activity is discussed. Two cyp19 genes are present in most teleosts, cyp19a and cyp19b, primarily expressed in the ovary and brain, respectively. Both aromatase CYP19 isoforms are involved in the sexual differentiation and regulation of the reproductive cycle and male reproductive behavior in diverse teleost species. Alteration of aromatase CYP19 expression and/or activity, be it upregulation or downregulation, may lead to diverse disturbances of the above mentioned processes. Prediction of multiple transcriptional regulatory elements in the promoters of teleost cyp19 genes suggests the possibility for several EDC classes to affect cyp19 expression on the transcriptional level. These sites include cAMP responsive elements, a steroidogenic factor 1/adrenal 4 binding protein site, an estrogen-responsive element (ERE), half-EREs, dioxin-responsive elements, and elements related to diverse other nuclear receptors (peroxisome proliferator activated receptor, retinoid X receptor, retinoic acid receptor). Certain compounds including phytoestrogens, xenoestrogens, fungicides and organotins may modulate aromatase CYP19 activity on the post-transcriptional level. As is shown in this review, diverse EDCs may affect the expression and/or activity of aromatase cyp19 genes through a variety of mechanisms, many of which need further characterization in order to improve the prediction of risks posed by a contaminated environment to teleost fish population.

Effect of voluntary exercise on number and volume of cardiomyocytes and their mitochondria in the mouse left ventricle

Voluntary exercise (VE) has a beneficial influence on the heart and mean lifespan. The present study evaluates structural adaptations of cardiomyocytes and their mitochondria due to VE by new, unbiased stereological methods. Female, 7-9-week-old mice were randomly assigned to a control (CG, n = 7) or VE group (EG, n = 7). EG animals were housed in cages with free access to a running wheel and had a mean running distance of 6.7 (1.8) km per day. After 4 weeks, the hearts of all mice were processed for light and electron microscopy. We estimated the number and volume of cardiomyocytes by the disector method and the number and volume of mitochondria by estimation of the Euler number. In comparison to CG, VE did not have an effect on the myocardial volume of the left ventricle (CG: 93 (10), EG: 103 (17) (mm(3))), the number of cardiomyocytes (CG: 2.81 (0.27), EG: 2.82 (0.43) (x10(6))) and their number-weighted mean volume. However, the composition of the cardiomyocytes changed due to VE. The total volume of mitochondria (CG: 21.8 (4.9), EG: 32.2 (4.3) (mm(3)), P < 0.01) and the total number (CG: 3.76 (0.44), EG: 7.02 (1.13) (x10(10)), P < 0.001) were significantly higher in EG than in CG. The mean number-weighted mitochondrial volume was smaller in EG than in CG (P < 0.05). In summary, VE does not alter ventricular volume nor cardiomyocyte volume or number but the oxidative capacity of cardiomyocytes by an increased mitochondrial number and total volume in the left ventricle. These structural changes may participate in the beneficial effects of VE.

Models with Plants, Microorganisms and Viruses for Basic Research in Homeopathy

Most criticism about homeopathy concerns the lack of a scientific basis and theoretical models. In order to be accepted as a valid part of medical practice, a wellstructured research strategy for homeopathy is needed. This is often hampered by methodological problems as well as by gross underinvestment in the required academic resources. Fundamental research could make important contributions to our understanding of the homeopathic and high dilutions mechanisms of action. Since the pioneering works of Kolisko on wheat germination (Kolisko, 1923) and Junker on growth of microorganisms (paramecium, yeast, fungi) (Junker, 1928), a number of experiments have been performed either with healthy organisms (various physiological aspects of growth) or with artificially diseased organisms, which may react more markedly to homeopathic treatments than healthy ones. In the latter case, the preliminary stress may be either abiotic, e.g. heavy metals, or biotic, e.g. fungal and viral pathogens or nematode infection. Research has also been carried out into the applicability of homeopathic principles to crop growth and disease control (agrohomeopathy): because of the extreme dilutions used, the environmental impact is low and such treatments are well suited to the holistic approach of sustainable agriculture (Betti et al., 2006). Unfortunately, as Scofield reported in an extensive critical review (Scofield, 1984), there is little firm evidence to support the reliability of the reported results, due to poor experimental methodology and inadequate statistical analysis. Moreover, since there is no agricultural homeopathic pharmacopoeia, much work is required to find suitable remedies, potencies and dose levels.

Zebrafish (Danio rerio) as a model organism for investigating endocrine disruption

Endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs) are widespread in the aquatic environment and can cause alterations in development, physiological homeostasis and health of vertebrates. Zebrafish, Danio rerio, has been suggested as a model species to identify targets as well as modes of EDC action. In fact, zebrafish has been found useful in EDC screening, in EDC effects assessment and in studying targets and mechanisms of EDC action. Since many of the environmental EDCs interfere with the sex steroid system of vertebrates, most EDC studies with zebrafish addressed disruption of sexual differentiation and reproduction. However, other targets of EDCs action must not be overlooked. For using a species as a toxicological model, a good knowledge of the biological traits of this species is a pre-requisite for the rational design of test protocols and endpoints as well as for the interpretation and extrapolation of the toxicological findings. Due to the genomic resources available for zebrafish and the long experience with zebrafish in toxicity testing, it is easily possible to establish molecular endpoints for EDC effects assessment. Additionally, the zebrafish model offers a number of technical advantages including ease and cost of maintenance, rapid development, high fecundity, optical transparency of embryos supporting phenotypic screening, existence of many mutant strains, or amenability for both forward and reverse genetics. To date, the zebrafish has been mainly used to identify molecular targets of EDC action and to determine effect thresholds, while the potential of this model species to study immediate and delayed physiological consequences of molecular interactions has been instrumentalized only partly. One factor that may limit the exploitation of this potential is the still rather fragmentary knowledge of basic biological and endocrine traits of zebrafish. Information on species-specific features in endocrine processes and biological properties, however, need to be considered in establishing EDC test protocols using zebrafish, in extrapolating findings from zebrafish to other vertebrate species, and in understanding how EDC-induced gene expression changes translate into disease.

Effects of different types of solid feeds on health status and performance of Swiss veal calves. I. Basic feeding with milk by-products

The objective of this study was to identify a suitable alternative to the current practice of complementing the feeding of milk by-products with straw. The influence of 5 different types of solid feeds on health and performance of Swiss veal calves was investigated in 2 production cycles of 200 veal calves each with a mean initial age of 40 days (d). The calves were housed in groups of 40 in stalls with outside pen. Liquid feeding consisted of a milk by-product combined with an additional skim milk powder ad libitum. Groups were assigned to 1 of the 5 following experimental solid feeds provided ad libitum: mix (composition: soy flakes, corn, barley, wheat, oat, barley middling, plant oil, molasses), whole plant corn pellets, corn silage, hay, and wheat straw as control. Daily dry matter intake per calf averaged 2.25 kg of the liquid food, 0.16 kg of straw, 0.33 kg of mix, 0.47 kg of corn silage, 0.38 kg of corn pellets, and 0.39 kg of hay. No significant differences (P > 0.05) among groups were found in calf losses that amounted to 4.8 % (68 % because of gastrointestinal disorders). Four percent of the calves were slaughtered prematurely. Daily doses of antibiotics were higher in the mix (36.9 d, P < 0.01) and in the corn silage groups (35 d, P < 0.01) compared to control. Compared to the 4 other groups, calves of the straw group showed the highest prevalence of abnormal ruminal content (73 %, P < 0.05), of abnormal ruminal papillae (42 %, P < 0.05), of abomasal fundic lesions (13.5 %, P < 0.1), and the lowest number of chewing movements per bolus (45, P < 0.05). The hemoglobin concentration averaged 85 g/l at the beginning and 99 g/l at the end of the fattening period with no significant differences among groups (P > 0.1). The duration of the fattening period averaged 114 d, slaughter age 157 d, and carcass weight 122 kg. The average daily weight gain (ADG) was highest in the control group straw (1.35 kg), and lowest in the hay group (1.22 kg, P < 0.01). The number of carcasses classified as C, H, and T (very high to medium quality) was lower in the hay group compared to straw (P < 0.01). No significant differences between groups were found in meat color (P > 0.1): 73 % of the carcasses were assessed as pale (267/364), 18 % as pink (66/364), and 9 % (31/364) as red. The results reveal that whole-plant corn pellets are most consistent with an optimal result combining the calves' health and fattening performance. Therefore, it can be recommended as an additional solid feed for veal calves under Swiss conditions.