Influence of body temperature on bacterial growth rates in experimental pneumococcal meningitis in rabbits

We examined the role of fever as a host defense in experimental pneumococcal meningitis in rabbits. Twelve hours after intracisternal inoculation of an encapsulated type 3 Streptococcus pneumoniae strain, body temperature was manipulated by using two different anesthetic drugs: pentobarbital, which did not affect temperature, and urethane, which mitigated the febrile response to infection. Growth rates of pneumococci in cerebrospinal fluid were dramatically influenced by modification of the febrile response. Rabbits whose fever was not suppressed had mean bacterial doubling times of 2.76 +/- 1.43 h. Animals with a blunted febrile response had a significantly faster mean bacterial growth rate (doubling time = 1.10 +/- 0.27 h; P less than 0.02). When the antipyretic effect of urethane was counteracted by raising the ambient temperature, animals also showed a marked reduction in pneumococcal growth rates. In vitro, the pneumococci grew well at 37 degrees C in Trypticase soy broth (doubling time = 0.61 +/- 0.05 h) and in pooled rabbit cerebrospinal fluid (doubling time = 0.85 +/- 0.07 h). However, at 41 degrees C neither medium supported growth. Thus, body temperature appears to be a critical determinant of pneumococcal growth rates in experimental meningitis, and fever could be a host defense in this disease.

Cost-effectiveness of different strategies to monitor adults on antiretroviral treatment: a combined analysis of three mathematical models

Background: WHO's 2013 revisions to its Consolidated Guidelines on antiretroviral drugs recommend routine viral load monitoring, rather than clinical or immunological monitoring, as the preferred monitoring approach on the basis of clinical evidence. However, HIV programmes in resource-limited settings require guidance on the most cost-effective use of resources in view of other competing priorities such as expansion of antiretroviral therapy coverage. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of alternative patient monitoring strategies. Methods: We evaluated a range of monitoring strategies, including clinical, CD4 cell count, and viral load monitoring, alone and together, at different frequencies and with different criteria for switching to second-line therapies. We used three independently constructed and validated models simultaneously. We estimated costs on the basis of resource use projected in the models and associated unit costs; we quantified impact as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. We compared alternatives using incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. Findings: All models show that clinical monitoring delivers significant benefit compared with a hypothetical baseline scenario with no monitoring or switching. Regular CD4 cell count monitoring confers a benefit over clinical monitoring alone, at an incremental cost that makes it affordable in more settings than viral load monitoring, which is currently more expensive. Viral load monitoring without CD4 cell count every 6—12 months provides the greatest reductions in morbidity and mortality, but incurs a high cost per DALY averted, resulting in lost opportunities to generate health gains if implemented instead of increasing antiretroviral therapy coverage or expanding antiretroviral therapy eligibility. Interpretation: The priority for HIV programmes should be to expand antiretroviral therapy coverage, firstly at CD4 cell count lower than 350 cells per μL, and then at a CD4 cell count lower than 500 cells per μL, using lower-cost clinical or CD4 monitoring. At current costs, viral load monitoring should be considered only after high antiretroviral therapy coverage has been achieved. Point-of-care technologies and other factors reducing costs might make viral load monitoring more affordable in future. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO.

Sample size considerations using mathematical models: an example with Chlamydia trachomatis infection and its sequelae pelvic inflammatory disease.

BACKGROUND The success of an intervention to prevent the complications of an infection is influenced by the natural history of the infection. Assumptions about the temporal relationship between infection and the development of sequelae can affect the predicted effect size of an intervention and the sample size calculation. This study investigates how a mathematical model can be used to inform sample size calculations for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) using the example of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). METHODS We used a compartmental model to imitate the structure of a published RCT. We considered three different processes for the timing of PID development, in relation to the initial C. trachomatis infection: immediate, constant throughout, or at the end of the infectious period. For each process we assumed that, of all women infected, the same fraction would develop PID in the absence of an intervention. We examined two sets of assumptions used to calculate the sample size in a published RCT that investigated the effect of chlamydia screening on PID incidence. We also investigated the influence of the natural history parameters of chlamydia on the required sample size. RESULTS The assumed event rates and effect sizes used for the sample size calculation implicitly determined the temporal relationship between chlamydia infection and PID in the model. Even small changes in the assumed PID incidence and relative risk (RR) led to considerable differences in the hypothesised mechanism of PID development. The RR and the sample size needed per group also depend on the natural history parameters of chlamydia. CONCLUSIONS Mathematical modelling helps to understand the temporal relationship between an infection and its sequelae and can show how uncertainties about natural history parameters affect sample size calculations when planning a RCT.

Association of the (CA)n repeat polymorphism of insulin-like growth factor-I and -202 A/C IGF-binding protein-3 promoter polymorphism with adult height in patients with severe growth hormone deficiency

A number of mathematical models for predicting growth and final height outcome have been proposed to enable the clinician to 'individualize' growth-promoting treatment. However, despite optimizing these models, many patients with isolated growth hormone deficiency (IGHD) do not reach their target height. The aim of this study was to analyse the impact of polymorphic genotypes [CA repeat promoter polymorphism of insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and the -202 A/C promoter polymorphism of IGF-Binding Protein-3 (IGFBP-3)] on variable growth factors as well as final height in severe IGHD following GH treatment. DESIGN, PATIENTS AND CONTROLS: One hundred seventy eight (IGF-I) and 167 (IGFBP-3) subjects with severe growth retardation because of IGHD were studied. In addition, the various genotypes were also studied in a healthy control group of 211 subjects.

Effect of pulsatility on the mathematical modeling of rotary blood pumps

In this study, the effect of time derivatives of flow rate and rotational speed was investigated on the mathematical modeling of a rotary blood pump (RBP). The basic model estimates the pressure head of the pump as a dependent variable using measured flow and speed as predictive variables. Performance of the model was evaluated by adding time derivative terms for flow and speed. First, to create a realistic working condition, the Levitronix CentriMag RBP was implanted in a sheep. All parameters from the model were physically measured and digitally acquired over a wide range of conditions, including pulsatile speed. Second, a statistical analysis of the different variables (flow, speed, and their time derivatives) based on multiple regression analysis was performed to determine the significant variables for pressure head estimation. Finally, different mathematical models were used to show the effect of time derivative terms on the performance of the models. In order to evaluate how well the estimated pressure head using different models fits the measured pressure head, root mean square error and correlation coefficient were used. The results indicate that inclusion of time derivatives of flow and speed can improve model accuracy, but only minimally.

Inhibition of bacterial degradation of EtG by collection as dried urine spots (DUS)

Ethyl glucuronide (EtG) and ethyl sulfate (EtS) are direct alcohol consumption markers widely used nowadays for clinical and forensic applications. They are detectable in blood and urine even after consumption of trace amounts of ethanol and for a longer time frame, being detectable even when no more ethanol is present. The instability of EtG against bacterial degradation in contaminated urine samples and/or the possible postcollection synthesis of this metabolite in samples containing, e.g., Escherichia coli and ethanol, may cause false identification of alcohol uptake. Therefore, it is of paramount importance to constrict these error sources by inhibition of any bacterial growth causing hydrolization or synthesis of EtG. This study evaluates a new method of collecting urine samples on filter paper, dried urine spots (DUS), for simultaneous detection of EtG, EtS and creatinine, having the great advantage of inhibiting bacterial activity. In addition, a method validation for the determination of EtG and EtS in DUS was performed according to the FDA guidelines. Sterile-filtered urine was spiked with EtG and EtS, inoculated with E. coli and incubated. Liquid and dried urine samples were collected after various time intervals up to 96 h. Liquid samples were frozen immediately after collection, whereas aliquots for DUS were pipetted onto filter paper, allowed to dry and stored at RT until analysis 1 week after. The specimens were analyzed by LC-ESI-MS/MS. As expected, degradation of EtG, but not of EtS, was observed in contaminated liquid urine samples. However, the specimens collected on filter paper and stored at RT showed no degradation during storage. Therefore, collecting urine samples on filter paper for EtG and EtS analysis turns out to be a reliable method to avoid bacterial degradation of EtG and EtS, and consequently, stabilization of these ethanol metabolites is achieved. In addition, simultaneous measurement of creatinine content as an indicator of urine dilution helps to interpret the results. Method validation for EtG and EtS in DUS was satisfactory, showing the linearity of the calibration curves in the studied concentration range, good precision, accuracy and selectivity.

Capsule type of Streptococcus pneumoniae determines growth phenotype

The polysaccharide capsule of Streptococcus pneumoniae defines over ninety serotypes, which differ in their carriage prevalence and invasiveness for poorly understood reasons. Recently, an inverse correlation between carriage prevalence and oligosaccharide structure of a given capsule has been described. Our previous work suggested a link between serotype and growth in vitro. Here we investigate whether capsule production interferes with growth in vitro and whether this predicts carriage prevalence in vivo. Eighty-one capsule switch mutants were constructed representing nine different serotypes, five of low (4, 7F, 14, 15, 18C) and four of high carriage prevalence (6B, 9V, 19F, 23F). Growth (length of lag phase, maximum optical density) of wildtype strains, nontypeable mutants and capsule switch mutants was studied in nutrient-restricted Lacks medium (MLM) and in rich undefined brain heart infusion broth supplemented with 5% foetal calf serum (BHI+FCS). In MLM growth phenotype depended on, and was transferred with, capsule operon type. Colonization efficiency of mouse nasopharynx also depended on, and was transferred with, capsule operon type. Capsule production interfered with growth, which correlated inversely with serotype-specific carriage prevalence. Serotypes with better growth and higher carriage prevalence produced thicker capsules (by electron microscopy, FITC-dextran exclusion assays and HPLC) than serotypes with delayed growth and low carriage prevalence. However, expression of cpsA, the first capsule gene, (by quantitative RT-PCR) correlated inversely with capsule thickness. Energy spent for capsule production (incorporation of H3-glucose) relative to amount of capsule produced was higher for serotypes with low carriage prevalence. Experiments in BHI+FCS showed overall better bacterial growth and more capsule production than growth in MLM and differences between serotypes were no longer apparent. Production of polysaccharide capsule in S. pneumoniae interferes with growth in nutrient-limiting conditions probably by competition for energy against the central metabolism. Serotype-specific nasopharyngeal carriage prevalence in vivo is predicted by the growth phenotype.

Rapid diagnosis of experimental meningitis by bacterial heat production in cerebrospinal fluid

BACKGROUND: Calorimetry is a nonspecific technique which allows direct measurement of heat generated by biological processes in the living cell. We evaluated the potential of calorimetry for rapid detection of bacterial growth in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) in a rat model of bacterial meningitis. METHODS: Infant rats were infected on postnatal day 11 by direct intracisternal injection with either Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis or Listeria monocytogenes. Control animals were injected with sterile saline or heat-inactivated S. pneumoniae. CSF was obtained at 18 hours after infection for quantitative cultures and heat flow measurement. For calorimetry, 10 microl and 1 microl CSF were inoculated in calorimetry ampoules containing 3 ml trypticase soy broth (TSB). RESULTS: The mean bacterial titer (+/- SD) in CSF was 1.5 +/- 0.6 x 108 for S. pneumoniae, 1.3 +/- 0.3 x 106 for N. meningitidis and 3.5 +/- 2.2 x 104 for L. monocytogenes. Calorimetric detection time was defined as the time until heat flow signal exceeded 10 microW. Heat signal was detected in 10-microl CSF samples from all infected animals with a mean (+/- SD) detection time of 1.5 +/- 0.2 hours for S. pneumoniae, 3.9 +/- 0.7 hours for N. meningitidis and 9.1 +/- 0.5 hours for L. monocytogenes. CSF samples from non-infected animals generated no increasing heat flow (<10 microW). The total heat was the highest in S. pneumoniae ranging from 6.7 to 7.5 Joules, followed by L. monocytogenes (5.6 to 6.1 Joules) and N. meningitidis (3.5 to 4.4 Joules). The lowest detectable bacterial titer by calorimetry was 2 cfu for S. pneumoniae, 4 cfu for N. meningitidis and 7 cfu for L. monocytogenes. CONCLUSION: By means of calorimetry, detection times of <4 hours for S. pneumoniae and N. meningitidis and <10 hours for Listeria monocytogenes using as little as 10 microl CSF were achieved. Calorimetry is a new diagnostic method allowing rapid and accurate diagnosis of bacterial meningitis from a small volume of CSF.

Capsule genes of Streptococcus pneumoniae influence growth in vitro

Recently, we showed that the in vitro lag phase correlates with the pneumococcal serotype. This study investigated the role of capsule genes in bacterial growth using strain D39. Deletion of the entire capsule operon induced a significantly prolonged lag phase in Todd Hewitt broth (P=0.0002). However, partial deletions showed a different influence on the lag phase. Supplementation of media with 5% fetal bovine serum restored normal growth, at least partially, in mutants with a prolonged lag phase. Therefore, pneumococcal capsule gene products influence bacterial growth in vitro in strain D39.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections: observational study, systematic reviews and mathematical modelling

BACKGROUND Partner notification is essential to the comprehensive case management of sexually transmitted infections. Systematic reviews and mathematical modelling can be used to synthesise information about the effects of new interventions to enhance the outcomes of partner notification. OBJECTIVE To study the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs). DESIGN Secondary data analysis of clinical audit data; systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) published from 1 January 1966 to 31 August 2012 and of studies of health-related quality of life (HRQL) [MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Knowledge, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA)] published from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2011; static models of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness; and dynamic modelling studies to improve parameter estimation and examine effectiveness. SETTING General population and genitourinary medicine clinic attenders. PARTICIPANTS Heterosexual women and men. INTERVENTIONS Traditional partner notification by patient or provider referral, and new partner notification by expedited partner therapy (EPT) or its UK equivalent, accelerated partner therapy (APT). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Population prevalence; index case reinfection; and partners treated per index case. RESULTS Enhanced partner therapy reduced reinfection in index cases with curable STIs more than simple patient referral [risk ratio (RR) 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.89]. There are no randomised trials of APT. The median number of partners treated for chlamydia per index case in UK clinics was 0.60. The number of partners needed to treat to interrupt transmission of chlamydia was lower for casual than for regular partners. In dynamic model simulations, > 10% of partners are chlamydia positive with look-back periods of up to 18 months. In the presence of a chlamydia screening programme that reduces population prevalence, treatment of current partners achieves most of the additional reduction in prevalence attributable to partner notification. Dynamic model simulations show that cotesting and treatment for chlamydia and gonorrhoea reduce the prevalence of both STIs. APT has a limited additional effect on prevalence but reduces the rate of index case reinfection. Published quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) weights were of insufficient quality to be used in a cost-effectiveness study of partner notification in this project. Using an intermediate outcome of cost per infection diagnosed, doubling the efficacy of partner notification from 0.4 to 0.8 partners treated per index case was more cost-effective than increasing chlamydia screening coverage. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence to support the improved clinical effectiveness of EPT in reducing index case reinfection. In a general heterosexual population, partner notification identifies new infected cases but the impact on chlamydia prevalence is limited. Partner notification to notify casual partners might have a greater impact than for regular partners in genitourinary clinic populations. Recommendations for future research are (1) to conduct randomised controlled trials using biological outcomes of the effectiveness of APT and of methods to increase testing for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and STIs after APT; (2) collection of HRQL data should be a priority to determine QALYs associated with the sequelae of curable STIs; and (3) standardised parameter sets for curable STIs should be developed for mathematical models of STI transmission that are used for policy-making. FUNDING The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Matrix models for quantifying competitive intransitivity from species abundance data

In a network of competing species, a competitive intransitivity occurs when the ranking of competitive abilities does not follow a linear hierarchy (A > B > C but C > A). A variety of mathematical models suggests that intransitive networks can prevent or slow down competitive exclusion and maintain biodiversity by enhancing species coexistence. However, it has been difficult to assess empirically the relative importance of intransitive competition because a large number of pairwise species competition experiments are needed to construct a competition matrix that is used to parameterize existing models. Here we introduce a statistical framework for evaluating the contribution of intransitivity to community structure using species abundance matrices that are commonly generated from replicated sampling of species assemblages. We provide metrics and analytical methods for using abundance matrices to estimate species competition and patch transition matrices by using reverse-engineering and a colonization-competition model. These matrices provide complementary metrics to estimate the degree of intransitivity in the competition network of the sampled communities. Benchmark tests reveal that the proposed methods could successfully detect intransitive competition networks, even in the absence of direct measures of pairwise competitive strength. To illustrate the approach, we analyzed patterns of abundance and biomass of five species of necrophagous Diptera and eight species of their hymenopteran parasitoids that co-occur in beech forests in Germany. We found evidence for a strong competitive hierarchy within communities of flies and parasitoids. However, for parasitoids, there was a tendency towards increasing intransitivity in higher weight classes, which represented larger resource patches. These tests provide novel methods for empirically estimating the degree of intransitivity in competitive networks from observational datasets. They can be applied to experimental measures of pairwise species interactions, as well as to spatio-temporal samples of assemblages in homogenous environments or environmental gradients.

Avian area vasculosa and CAM as rapid in vivo pro-angiogenic and antiangiogenic models.

Angiogenesis, the development of new blood vessels from preexisting ones, is driven by coordinated signaling pathways governed by specific molecules, hemodynamic forces, and endothelial and periendothelial cells. The processes involve adhesion, migration, and survival machinery within the target endothelial and periendothelial cells. Factors that interfere with any of these processes may therefore influence angiogenesis either positively (pro-angiogenesis) or negatively (antiangiogenesis). The avian area vasculosa (AV) and the avian chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) are two useful tools for studying both angiogenesis and antiangiogenesis since they are amenable to both intravascular and topical administration of target, agents, are relatively rapid assays, and can be adapted very easily to study angiogenesis-dependent processes, such as tumor growth. Both models provide a physiological setting that permits investigation of pro-angiogenic and antiangiogenic agent interactions in vivo.

gems: An R Package for Simulating from Disease Progression Models

Mathematical models of disease progression predict disease outcomes and are useful epidemiological tools for planners and evaluators of health interventions. The R package gems is a tool that simulates disease progression in patients and predicts the effect of different interventions on patient outcome. Disease progression is represented by a series of events (e.g., diagnosis, treatment and death), displayed in a directed acyclic graph. The vertices correspond to disease states and the directed edges represent events. The package gems allows simulations based on a generalized multistate model that can be described by a directed acyclic graph with continuous transition-specific hazard functions. The user can specify an arbitrary hazard function and its parameters. The model includes parameter uncertainty, does not need to be a Markov model, and may take the history of previous events into account. Applications are not limited to the medical field and extend to other areas where multistate simulation is of interest. We provide a technical explanation of the multistate models used by gems, explain the functions of gems and their arguments, and show a sample application.

Transmission electron microscopy of the bacterial nucleoid.

Water-containing biological material cannot withstand the vacuum of the transmission electron microscope. The classical solution to this problem has been to dehydrate chemically fixed biological samples and then embed them in resin. During such treatment, the bacterial nucleoid is especially prone to aggregation, which affects its global shape and fine structure. Initial attempts to deal with aggregation by optimizing chemical fixation yielded contradictory results. Two decades ago, the situation improved with the introduction of freeze-substitution. This method is based on dehydration of unfixed cryo-immobilized samples at low temperature, which substantially reduces aggregation. As a result, the global shape of the nucleoid can be fairly well defined. Overall, in actively growing bacteria, the nucleoids are dispersed and "coralline" but become more confined when growth ceases. However, it is usually impossible to determine the molecular arrangement of DNA in the nucleoids of freeze-substituted bacteria because crystallization and the subsequent removal of water during substitution result in unavoidable distortions at the ultrastructural level. Recently, cryo-electron microscopy of vitreous sections has enabled the fully hydrated bacterial nucleoid to be studied close to the native state. Such studies have revealed aspects of bacterial nucleoid organization that are not preserved by freeze-substitution, including locally parallel or twisted bundles of DNA filaments, which are more frequently observed once bacterial growth has stopped, whereas in actively growing bacteria, the DNA is seen to be in a mostly disordered pattern.