Improved detection of amnestic MCI by means of discriminative vector quantization of single-trial cognitive ERP responses

Cognitive event-related potentials (ERPs) are widely employed in the study of dementive disorders. The morphology of averaged response is known to be under the influence of neurodegenerative processes and exploited for diagnostic purposes. This work is built over the idea that there is additional information in the dynamics of single-trial responses. We introduce a novel way to detect mild cognitive impairment (MCI) from the recordings of auditory ERP responses. Using single trial responses from a cohort of 25 amnestic MCI patients and a group of age-matched controls, we suggest a descriptor capable of encapsulating single-trial (ST) response dynamics for the benefit of early diagnosis. A customized vector quantization (VQ) scheme is first employed to summarize the overall set of ST-responses by means of a small-sized codebook of brain waves that is semantically organized. Each ST-response is then treated as a trajectory that can be encoded as a sequence of code vectors. A subject's set of responses is consequently represented as a histogram of activated code vectors. Discriminating MCI patients from healthy controls is based on the deduced response profiles and carried out by means of a standard machine learning procedure. The novel response representation was found to improve significantly MCI detection with respect to the standard alternative representation obtained via ensemble averaging (13% in terms of sensitivity and 6% in terms of specificity). Hence, the role of cognitive ERPs as biomarker for MCI can be enhanced by adopting the delicate description of our VQ scheme.

Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Holes localized on a Skyrmion in a doped antiferromagnet on the honeycomb lattice: Symmetry analysis

Using the low-energy effective field theory for hole-doped antiferromagnets on the honeycomb lattice, we study the localization of holes on Skyrmions, as a potential mechanism for the preformation of Cooper pairs. In contrast to the square lattice case, for the standard radial profile of the Skyrmion on the honeycomb lattice, only holes residing in one of the two hole pockets can get localized. This differs qualitatively from hole pairs bound by magnon exchange, which is most attractive between holes residing in different momentum space pockets. On the honeycomb lattice, magnon exchange unambiguously leads to f-wave pairing, which is also observed experimentally. Using the collective-mode quantization of the Skyrmion, we determine the quantum numbers of the localized hole pairs. Again, f-wave symmetry is possible, but other competing pairing symmetries cannot be ruled out.