The potential effect of population development, smoking and antioxidant supplementation on the future epidemiology of age-related macular degeneration in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Due to the predicted age shift of the population an increase in the number of patients with late AMD is expected. At present smoking represents the only modifiable risk factor. Supplementation of antioxidants in patients at risk is the sole effective pharmacological prevention. The aim of this study is to estimate the future epidemiological development of late AMD in Switzerland and to quantify the potential effects of smoking and antioxidants supplementation. METHODS: The modelling of the future development of late AMD cases in Switzerland was based on a meta-analysis of the published data on AMD-prevalence and on published Swiss population development scenarios until 2050. Three different scenarios were compared: low, mean and high. The late AMD cases caused by smoking were calculated using the "population attributable fraction" formula and data on the current smoking habits of the Swiss population. The number of potentially preventable cases was estimated using the data of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS). RESULTS: According to the mean population development scenario, late AMD cases in Switzerland will rise from 37 200 cases in 2005 to 52 500 cases in 2020 and to 93 200 cases in 2050. Using the "low" and the "high" scenarios the late AMD cases may range from 49 500 to 56 000 in 2020 and from 73 700 to 118 400 in 2050, respectively. Smoking is responsible for approximately 7 % of all late AMD cases, i. e., 2600 cases in 2005, 3800 cases in 2020, 6600 cases in 2050 ("mean scenario"). With future antioxidant supplementation to all patients at risk another 3100 cases would be preventable until 2020 and possibly 23 500 cases until 2050. CONCLUSION: Due to age shift in the population a 2.5-fold increase in late AMD cases until 2050 is expected, representing a socioeconomic challenge. Cessation of smoking and supplementation of antioxidants to all patients at risk has the potential to reduce this number. Unfortunately, public awareness is low. These data may support health-care providers and public opinion leaders when developing public education and prevention strategies.

An index to identify stroke-related vs incidental patent foramen ovale in cryptogenic stroke

OBJECTIVE We aimed to create an index to stratify cryptogenic stroke (CS) patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO) by their likelihood that the stroke was related to their PFO. METHODS Using data from 12 component studies, we used generalized linear mixed models to predict the presence of PFO among patients with CS, and derive a simple index to stratify patients with CS. We estimated the stratum-specific PFO-attributable fraction and stratum-specific stroke/TIA recurrence rates. RESULTS Variables associated with a PFO in CS patients included younger age, the presence of a cortical stroke on neuroimaging, and the absence of these factors: diabetes, hypertension, smoking, and prior stroke or TIA. The 10-point Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score is calculated from these variables so that the youngest patients with superficial strokes and without vascular risk factors have the highest score. PFO prevalence increased from 23% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 19%-26%) in those with 0 to 3 points to 73% (95% CI: 66%-79%) in those with 9 or 10 points, corresponding to attributable fraction estimates of approximately 0% to 90%. Kaplan-Meier estimated stroke/TIA 2-year recurrence rates decreased from 20% (95% CI: 12%-28%) in the lowest Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score stratum to 2% (95% CI: 0%-4%) in the highest. CONCLUSION Clinical characteristics identify CS patients who vary markedly in PFO prevalence, reflecting clinically important variation in the probability that a discovered PFO is likely to be stroke-related vs incidental. Patients in strata more likely to have stroke-related PFOs have lower recurrence risk.

Impact of common risk factors of fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVE The natural course of chronic hepatitis C varies widely. To improve the profiling of patients at risk of developing advanced liver disease, we assessed the relative contribution of factors for liver fibrosis progression in hepatitis C. DESIGN We analysed 1461 patients with chronic hepatitis C with an estimated date of infection and at least one liver biopsy. Risk factors for accelerated fibrosis progression rate (FPR), defined as ≥0.13 Metavir fibrosis units per year, were identified by logistic regression. Examined factors included age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, body mass index (BMI), significant alcohol drinking (≥20 g/day for ≥5 years), HIV coinfection and diabetes. In a subgroup of 575 patients, we assessed the impact of single nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with fibrosis progression in genome-wide association studies. Results were expressed as attributable fraction (AF) of risk for accelerated FPR. RESULTS Age at infection (AF 28.7%), sex (AF 8.2%), route of infection (AF 16.5%) and HCV genotype (AF 7.9%) contributed to accelerated FPR in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study, whereas significant alcohol drinking, anti-HIV, diabetes and BMI did not. In genotyped patients, variants at rs9380516 (TULP1), rs738409 (PNPLA3), rs4374383 (MERTK) (AF 19.2%) and rs910049 (major histocompatibility complex region) significantly added to the risk of accelerated FPR. Results were replicated in three additional independent cohorts, and a meta-analysis confirmed the role of age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, rs738409, rs4374383 and rs910049 in accelerating FPR. CONCLUSIONS Most factors accelerating liver fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C are unmodifiable.

Intravenous thrombolysis in patients with stroke attributable to small artery occlusion

Intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) for stroke seems to be beneficial independent of the underlying etiology. Recent observations raised concern that IVT might cause harm in patients with strokes attributable to small artery occlusion (SAO).

Incident cancer burden attributable to excess body mass index in 30 European countries

Excess adiposity is associated with increased risks of developing adult malignancies. To inform public health policy and guide further research, the incident cancer burden attributable to excess body mass index (BMI >or= 25 kg/m(2)) across 30 European countries were estimated. Population attributable risks (PARs) were calculated using European- and gender-specific risk estimates from a published meta-analysis and gender-specific mean BMI estimates from a World Health Organization Global Infobase. Country-specific numbers of new cancers were derived from Globocan2002. A ten-year lag-period between risk exposure and cancer incidence was assumed and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated in Monte Carlo simulations. In 2002, there were 2,171,351 new all cancer diagnoses in the 30 countries of Europe. Estimated PARs were 2.5% (95% CI 1.5-3.6%) in men and 4.1% (2.3-5.9%) in women. These collectively corresponded to 70,288 (95% CI 40,069-100,668) new cases. Sensitivity analyses revealed estimates were most influenced by the assumed shape of the BMI distribution in the population and cancer-specific risk estimates. In a scenario analysis of a plausible contemporary (2008) population, the estimated PARs increased to 3.2% (2.1-4.3%) and 8.6% (5.6-11.5%), respectively, in men and women. Endometrial, post-menopausal breast and colorectal cancers accounted for 65% of these cancers. This analysis quantifies the burden of incident cancers attributable to excess BMI in Europe. The estimates reported here provide a baseline for future modelling, and underline the need for research into interventions to control weight in the context of endometrial, breast and colorectal cancer.

Assessment of right ventricular systolic function: Comparison between cardiac magnetic resonance derived ejection fraction and pulsed-wave tissue Doppler imaging of the tricuspid annulus

Systolic right ventricular (RV) function is an important predictor in the course of various congenital and acquired heart diseases. Its practical determination by echocardiography remains challenging. We compared routine assessment of lateral tricuspid annular systolic motion velocity (TV(lat), cm/s) using pulsed-wave tissue Doppler imaging from the apical 4-chamber view with cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) as reference method.

Clinical outcome of high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction undergoing medical treatment or TAVI

Introduction Reduced left ventricular function in patients with severe symptomatic valvular aortic stenosis is associated with impaired clinical outcome in patients undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation (TAVI) has been shown non-inferior to SAVR in high-risk patients with respect to mortality and may result in faster left ventricular recovery. Methods We investigated clinical outcomes of high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing medical treatment (n = 71) or TAVI (n = 256) stratified by left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in a prospective single center registry. Results Twenty-five patients (35%) among the medical cohort were found to have an LVEF≤30% (mean 26.7±4.1%) and 37 patients (14%) among the TAVI patients (mean 25.2±4.4%). Estimated peri-interventional risk as assessed by logistic EuroSCORE was significantly higher in patients with severely impaired LVEF as compared to patients with LVEF>30% (medical/TAVI 38.5±13.8%/40.6±16.4% versus medical/TAVI 22.5±10.8%/22.1±12.8%, p <0.001). In patients undergoing TAVI, there was no significant difference in the combined endpoint of death, myocardial infarction, major stroke, life-threatening bleeding, major access-site complications, valvular re-intervention, or renal failure at 30 days between the two groups (21.0% versus 27.0%, p = 0.40). After TAVI, patients with LVEF≤30% experienced a rapid improvement in LVEF (from 25±4% to 34±10% at discharge, p = 0.002) associated with improved NYHA functional class at 30 days (decrease ≥1 NYHA class in 95%). During long-term follow-up no difference in survival was observed in patients undergoing TAVI irrespective of baseline LVEF (p = 0.29), whereas there was a significantly higher mortality in medically treated patients with severely reduced LVEF (log rank p = 0.001). Conclusion TAVI in patients with severely reduced left ventricular function may be performed safely and is associated with rapid recovery of systolic left ventricular function and heart failure symptoms.

Value of age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF score) in assessing risk in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary interventions in the 'All-Comers' LEADERS trial

Background— The age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score (age/left ventricular ejection fraction+1 if creatinine >2.0 mg/dL) has been established as an effective predictor of clinical outcomes in patients undergoing elective coronary artery bypass surgery; however, its utility in “all-comer” patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention is yet unexplored. Methods and Results— The ACEF score was calculated for 1208 of the 1707 patients enrolled in the LEADERS trial. Post hoc analysis was performed by stratifying clinical outcomes at the 1-year follow-up according to ACEF score tertiles: ACEFlow ≤1.0225, 1.0225< ACEFmid ≤1.277, and ACEFhigh >1.277. At 1-year follow-up, there was a significantly lower number of patients with major adverse cardiac event–free survival in the highest tertile of the ACEF score (ACEFlow=92.1%, ACEFmid=89.5%, and ACEFhigh=86.1%; P=0.0218). Cardiac death was less frequent in ACEFlow than in ACEFmid and ACEFhigh (0.7% vs 2.2% vs 4.5%; hazard ratio=2.22, P=0.002) patients. Rates of myocardial infarction were significantly higher in patients with a high ACEF score (6.7% for ACEFhigh vs 5.2% for ACEFmid and 2.5% for ACEFlow; hazard ratio=1.6, P=0.006). Clinically driven target-vessel revascularization also tended to be higher in the ACEFhigh group, but the difference among the 3 groups did not reach statistical significance. The rate of composite definite, possible, and probable stent thrombosis was also higher in the ACEFhigh group (ACEFlow=1.2%, ACEFmid=3.5%, and ACEFhigh=6.2%; hazard ratio=2.04, P<0.001). Conclusions— ACEF score may be a simple way to stratify risk of events in patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention with respect to mortality and risk of myocardial infarction.

Fluctuation phenotyping based on daily fraction of exhaled nitric oxide values in asthmatic children

Fraction of exhaled nitric oxide (Feno), a marker of airway inflammation, has been proposed to be useful for asthma management, but conclusions are inconsistent. This might be due to the failure of mean statistics to characterize individual variability in Feno values, which is possibly a better indicator of asthma control than single measurements.

Effects of right ventricular pacing on left ventricular ejection fraction in a pacemaker clinic

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether a change of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) depending on percentage of right ventricular pacing is found in a real-life setting of a pacemaker clinic.

Importance of the sampled milk fraction for the prediction of total quarter somatic cell count

This study investigated the changes in somatic cell counts (SCC) in different fractions of milk, with special emphasis on the foremilk and cisternal milk fractions. Therefore, in Experiment 1, quarter milk samples were defined as strict foremilk (F), cisternal milk (C), first 400 g of alveolar milk (A1), and the remaining alveolar milk (A2). Experiment 2 included 6 foremilk fractions (F1 to F6), consisting of one hand-stripped milk jet each, and the remaining cisternal milk plus the entire alveolar milk (RM). In Experiment 1, changes during milking indicated the importance of the sampled milk fraction for measuring SCC because the decrease in the first 3 fractions (F, C, and A1) was enormous in milk with high total quarter SCC. The decline in SCC from F to C was 50% and was 80% from C to A1. Total quarter SCC presented a value of approximately 20% of SCC in F or 35% of SCC in C. Changes in milk with low or very low SCC were marginal during milking. Fractions F and C showed significant differences in SCC among different total SCC concentrations. These differences disappeared with the alveolar fractions A1 and A2. In Experiment 2, a more detailed investigation of foremilk fractions supported the findings of Experiment 1. A significant decline in the foremilk fractions even of F1 to F6 was observed in high-SCC milk at concentrations >350 x 10(3) cells/mL. Although one of these foremilk fractions presented only 0.1 to 0.2% of the total milk, the SCC was 2- to 3-fold greater than the total quarter milk SCC. Because the trait of interest (SCC) was measured directly by using the DeLaval cell counter (DCC), the quality of measurement was tested. Statistically interesting factors (repeatability, recovery rate, and potential matrix effects of milk) proved that the DCC is a useful tool for identifying the SCC of milk samples, and thus of grading udder health status. Generally, the DCC provides reliable results, but one must consider that SCC even in strict foremilk can differ dramatically from SCC in the total cisternal fraction, and thus also from SCC in the alveolar fraction.

Pilot study on the comprehensive economic costs of major trauma: Consequential costs are well in excess of medical costs

BACKGROUND: Trauma care is expensive. However, reliable data on the exact lifelong costs incurred by a major trauma patient are lacking. Discussion usually focuses on direct medical costs--underestimating consequential costs resulting from absence from work and permanent disability. METHODS: Direct medical costs and consequential costs of 63 major trauma survivors (ISS >13) at a Swiss trauma center from 1995 to 1996 were assessed 5 years posttrauma. The following cost evaluation methods were used: correction cost method (direct cost of restoring an original state), human capital method (indirect cost of lost productivity), contingent valuation method (human cost as the lost quality of life), and macroeconomic estimates. RESULTS: Mean ISS (Injury Severity Score) was 26.8 +/- 9.5 (mean +/- SD). In all, 22 patients (35%) were disabled, causing discounted average lifelong total costs of USD 1,293,800, compared with 41 patients (65%) who recovered without any disabilities with incurred costs of USD 147,200 (average of both groups USD 547,800). Two thirds of these costs were attributable to a loss of production whereas only one third was a result of the cost of correction. Primary hospital treatment (USD 27,800 +/- 37,800) was only a minor fraction of the total cost--less than the estimated cost of police and the judiciary. Loss of quality of life led to considerable intangible human costs similar to real costs. CONCLUSIONS: Trauma costs are commonly underestimated. Direct medical costs make up only a small part of the total costs. Consequential costs, such as lost productivity, are well in excess of the usual medical costs. Mere cost averages give a false estimate of the costs incurred by patients with/without disabilities.