The price elasticity of demand for common stock

We study the price elasticity of demand for the common stock of an individual corporation. Despite the prevelance of assumptions that demand is perfectly elastic, there is little if any direct evidence in the literature to either support or reject that contention. Consistent with the notion of finite price elasticities, we find that the announcement of primary stock oferings by regulated firms depresses their stock prices and little if any evidence that this decline is the result of adverse information about future cash flows. Attempts to relate offer announcement effects directly to possible determinants of price elasticities, however, are inconclusive.

A Bundle of Services Increased Ascertainment of Tuberculosis among HIV-Infected Individuals Enrolled in a HIV Cohort in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVES To report on trends of tuberculosis ascertainment among HIV patients in a rural HIV cohort in Tanzania, and assessing the impact of a bundle of services implemented in December 2012, consisting of three components:(i)integration of HIV and tuberculosis services; (ii)GeneXpert for tuberculosis diagnosis; and (iii)electronic data collection. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study of patients enrolled in the Kilombero Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort (KIULARCO), Tanzania.). METHODS HIV patients without prior history of tuberculosis enrolled in the KIULARCO cohort between 2005 and 2013 were included.Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate rates and predictors of tuberculosis ascertainment. RESULTS Of 7114 HIV positive patients enrolled, 5123(72%) had no history of tuberculosis. Of these, 66% were female, median age was 38 years, median baseline CD4+ cell count was 243 cells/µl, and 43% had WHO clinical stage 3 or 4. During follow-up, 421 incident tuberculosis cases were notified with an estimated incidence of 3.6 per 100 person-years(p-y)[95% confidence interval(CI)3.26-3.97]. The incidence rate varied over time and increased significantly from 2.96 to 43.98 cases per 100 p-y after the introduction of the bundle of services in December 2012. Four independent predictors of tuberculosis ascertainment were identified:poor clinical condition at baseline (Hazard Ratio (HR) 3.89, 95% CI 2.87-5.28), WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 (HR 2.48, 95% CI 1.88-3.26), being antiretroviralnaïve (HR 2.97, 95% CI 2.25-3.94), and registration in 2013(HR 6.07, 95% CI 4.39-8.38). CONCLUSION The integration of tuberculosis and HIV services together with comprehensive electronic data collection and use of GeneXpert increased dramatically the ascertainment of tuberculosis in this rural African HIV cohort.

Record linkage to correct under-ascertainment of cancers in HIV cohorts: the Sinikithemba HIV clinic linkage project.

The surveillance of HIV-related cancers in South Africa is hampered by the lack of systematic collection of cancer diagnoses in HIV cohorts and the absence of HIV status in cancer registries. To improve cancer ascertainment and estimate cancer incidence, we linked records of adults (aged ≥ 16 years) on antiretroviral treatment (ART) enrolled at Sinikithemba HIV clinic, McCord Hospital in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) with the cancer records of public laboratories in KZN province using probabilistic record linkage methods. We calculated incidence rates for all cancers, Kaposi sarcoma (KS), cervix, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and non-AIDS defining cancers (NADCs) before and after inclusion of linkage-identified cancers with 95% confidence intervals (CI). A total of 8,721 records of HIV-positive patients were linked with 35,536 cancer records. Between 2004 and 2010 we identified 448 cancers, 82% (n=367) were recorded in the cancer registry only, 10% (n=43) in the HIV cohort only and 8% (n=38) both in the HIV cohort and the cancer registry. The overall cancer incidence rate in patients starting ART increased from 134 (95% CI 91-212) to 877 (95% CI 744-1,041) after inclusion of linkage-identified cancers. Incidence rates were highest for KS (432, 95% CI 341-555), followed by cervix (259, 95% CI 179-390) and NADCs (294, 95% CI 223-395) per 100,000 person-years. Ascertainment of cancer in HIV cohorts is incomplete, probabilistic record linkage is both feasible and essential for cancer ascertainment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Mortality in patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in South Africa, Europe, or North America: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND High early mortality in patients with HIV-1 starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to Europe and North America, is well documented. Longer-term comparisons between settings have been limited by poor ascertainment of mortality in high burden African settings. This study aimed to compare mortality up to four years on ART between South Africa, Europe, and North America. METHODS AND FINDINGS Data from four South African cohorts in which patients lost to follow-up (LTF) could be linked to the national population register to determine vital status were combined with data from Europe and North America. Cumulative mortality, crude and adjusted (for characteristics at ART initiation) mortality rate ratios (relative to South Africa), and predicted mortality rates were described by region at 0-3, 3-6, 6-12, 12-24, and 24-48 months on ART for the period 2001-2010. Of the adults included (30,467 [South Africa], 29,727 [Europe], and 7,160 [North America]), 20,306 (67%), 9,961 (34%), and 824 (12%) were women. Patients began treatment with markedly more advanced disease in South Africa (median CD4 count 102, 213, and 172 cells/µl in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively). High early mortality after starting ART in South Africa occurred mainly in patients starting ART with CD4 count <50 cells/µl. Cumulative mortality at 4 years was 16.6%, 4.7%, and 15.3% in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively. Mortality was initially much lower in Europe and North America than South Africa, but the differences were reduced or reversed (North America) at longer durations on ART (adjusted rate ratios 0.46, 95% CI 0.37-0.58, and 1.62, 95% CI 1.27-2.05 between 24 and 48 months on ART comparing Europe and North America to South Africa). While bias due to under-ascertainment of mortality was minimised through death registry linkage, residual bias could still be present due to differing approaches to and frequency of linkage. CONCLUSIONS After accounting for under-ascertainment of mortality, with increasing duration on ART, the mortality rate on HIV treatment in South Africa declines to levels comparable to or below those described in participating North American cohorts, while substantially narrowing the differential with the European cohorts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Collaborative Research in Childhood Cancer Survivorship: The Current Landscape.

Survivors of childhood cancer carry a substantial burden of morbidity and are at increased risk for premature death. Furthermore, clear associations exist between specific therapeutic exposures and the risk for a variety of long-term complications. The entire landscape of health issues encountered for decades after successful completion of treatment is currently being explored in various collaborative research settings. These settings include large population-based or multi-institutional cohorts and single-institution studies. The ascertainment of outcomes has depended on self-reporting, linkage to registries, or clinical assessments. Survivorship research in the cooperative group setting, such as the Children's Oncology Group, has leveraged the clinical trials infrastructure to explore the molecular underpinnings of treatment-related adverse events, and to understand specific complications in the setting of randomized risk-reduction strategies. This review highlights the salient findings from these large collaborative initiatives, emphasizing the need for life-long follow-up of survivors of childhood cancer, and describing the development of several guidelines and efforts toward harmonization. Finally, the review reinforces the need to identify populations at highest risk, facilitating the development of risk prediction models that would allow for targeted interventions across the entire trajectory of survivorship.