Short- and long-term mortality and causes of death in HIV/tuberculosis patients in Europe

Mortality of HIV/tuberculosis (TB) patients in Eastern Europe is high. Little is known about their causes of death. This study aimed to assess and compare mortality rates and cause of death in HIV/TB patients across Eastern Europe and Western Europe and Argentina (WEA) in an international cohort study. Mortality rates and causes of death were analysed by time from TB diagnosis (<3 months, 3-12 months or >12 months) in 1078 consecutive HIV/TB patients. Factors associated with TB-related death were examined in multivariate Poisson regression analysis. 347 patients died during 2625 person-years of follow-up. Mortality in Eastern Europe was three- to ninefold higher than in WEA. TB was the main cause of death in Eastern Europe in 80%, 66% and 61% of patients who died <3 months, 3-12 months or >12 months after TB diagnosis, compared to 50%, 0% and 15% in the same time periods in WEA (p<0.0001). In multivariate analysis, follow-up in WEA (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.12, 95% CI 0.04-0.35), standard TB-treatment (IRR 0.45, 95% CI 0.20-0.99) and antiretroviral therapy (IRR 0.32, 95% CI 0.14-0.77) were associated with reduced risk of TB-related death. Persistently higher mortality rates were observed in HIV/TB patients in Eastern Europe, and TB was the dominant cause of death at any time during follow-up. This has important implications for HIV/TB programmes aiming to optimise the management of HIV/TB patients and limit TB-associated mortality in this region.

How are climate change adaptation strategies put into practice? A case study comparison of natural hazard prevention

Climate change affects increasingly the management of natural resources and has diverse impacts of environmental, social and economic nature. To take this complexity into account, climate change adaptation policies consider the principle of sustainable development. Sustainability is an integrative concept which should insure a long-term and multi-sectoral response to climate change. But the question appears if sustainable development is only retained at the conceptual level or effectively implemented in practice. This paper pursues this question by comparing three projects addressing natural hazard in Swiss mountains. The aim is to investigate how sustainable development is perceived by involved stakeholders and implemented in practice. Two dimensions are thus taken into account: the type of actors participating in these projects and their preferences and interests. The first dimension thus analyzes if diverse actors representing the environmental, economic and social arenas are integrated; the second dimension investigates if different interests and preferences in the sense of sustainability were incorporated in the design and implementation of climate change adaptation. Data were gathered through a standardized survey among all actors involved in the three projects. Preliminary results show that sustainability receives diverse weight and interest in the different cases.

Europeanization in parliament and in the press

Europeanization challenges national democratic systems. As part and parcel of the broader internationalization of politics, Europeanization is associated with a shift from policymaking within majoritarian, elected representative bodies towards technocratic decisions among non-majoritarian and non-elected bodies (Kohler-Koch and Rittberger 2008, Lavenex 2013). It is thus said to weaken the influence of citizens and parliaments on the making of policies and to undermine democratic collective identity (Lavenex 2013, Schimmelfennig 2010). The weakening of national parliaments has been referred to as “de-parliamentarisation” (Goetz and Meyer-Sahling 2008) and has nurtured a broader debate regarding the democratic deficit in the EU. While not being a member of the EU, Switzerland has not remained unaffected by these changes. As discussed in the contribution by Fischer and Sciarini, state executive actors take the lead in Switzerland's European policy. They are responsible for the conduct of international negotiations, they own the treaty making power, and it is up to them to decide whether they wish to launch a negotiation with the EU. In addition, the strong take-it or leave-it character of Europeanized acts limits the room for manoeuver of the parliamentary body also in the ratification phase. Among the public, the rejection of the treaty on the European constitution has definitely closed the era of “permissive consensus” (Hooghe and Marks 2009). However, the process of European unification remains far remote from the European public. In Switzerland, the strongly administrative character of international legislation hinders public discussion (Vögeli 2007). In such a context, the media may serve as cue for the public: By delivering information about the extent and nature of Europeanized policymaking, the media enable citizens to form their own opinions and to hold their representatives accountable. In this sense media coverage may not only be considered an indicator of the information delivered to the public, but it may also enhance the democratic legitimacy of Europeanized policymaking (for a similar argument, see Tresch and Jochum 2005). While the previous contributions to this debate have examined the Europeanization of Swiss (primary and secondary) legislation, we take a closer look at two additional domestic arenas that are both supposed to be under pressure due to Europeanization: The parliament and the media. To that end, we rely on data gathered in a research project that two of us carried out in the context of the NCCR Democracy.1 While this project was primarily interested in the mediatization of decision-making processes in Switzerland, it also investigated the conditional role played by internationalization/Europeanization. For our present purposes, we shall exploit the two data-sets that were developed as part of a study of the political agenda-setting power of the media (Sciarini and Tresch 2012, 2013, Tresch et al. 2013): A data-set on issue attention in parliamentary interventions (initiatives, motions, postulates,2 interpellations and questions) and a data-set on issue attention in articles from the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ). The data covers the years 1995 to 2003 and the coding of issues followed the classification system developed in the “Policy Agendas Project” (Baumgartner and Jones 1993).

Genetic consequences of habitat fragmentation during a range expansion

We investigate the effect of habitat fragmentation on the genetic diversity of a species experiencing a range expansion. These two evolutionary processes have not been studied yet, at the same time, owing to the difficulties of deriving analytic results for non-equilibrium models. Here we provide a description of their interaction by using extensive spatial and temporal coalescent simulations and we suggest guidelines for a proper genetic sampling to detect fragmentation. To model habitat fragmentation, we simulated a two-dimensional lattice of demes partitioned into groups (patches) by adding barriers to dispersal. After letting a population expand on this grid, we sampled lineages from the lattice at several scales and studied their coalescent history. We find that in order to detect fragmentation, one needs to extensively sample at a local level rather than at a landscape level. This is because the gene genealogy of a scattered sample is less sensitive to the presence of genetic barriers. Considering the effect of temporal changes of fragmentation intensities, we find that at least 10, but often >100, generations are needed to affect local genetic diversity and population structure. This result explains why recent habitat fragmentation does not always lead to detectable signatures in the genetic structure of populations. Finally, as expected, long-distance dispersal increases local genetic diversity and decreases levels of population differentiation, efficiently counteracting the effects of fragmentation.

The scaling of genetic diversity in a changing and fragmented world

Most species do not live in a constant environment over space or time. Their environment is often heterogeneous with a huge variability in resource availability and exposure to pathogens or predators, which may affect the local densities of the species. Moreover, the habitat might be fragmented, preventing free and isotropic migrations between local sub-populations (demes) of a species, making some demes more isolated than others. For example, during the last ice age populations of many species migrated towards refuge areas from which re-colonization originated when conditions improved. However, populations that could not move fast enough or could not adapt to the new environmental conditions faced extinctions. Populations living in these types of dynamic environments are often referred to as metapopulations and modeled as an array of subdivisions (or demes) that exchange migrants with their neighbors. Several studies have focused on the description of their demography, probability of extinction and expected patterns of diversity at different scales. Importantly, all these evolutionary processes may affect genetic diversity, which can affect the chance of populations to persist. In this chapter we provide an overview on the consequences of fragmentation, long-distance dispersal, range contractions and range shifts on genetic diversity. In addition, we describe new methods to detect and quantify underlying evolutionary processes from sampled genetic data.

Long distance dispersal shaped patterns of human genetic diversity in Eurasia

Most previous attempts at reconstructing the past history of human populations did not explicitly take geography into account, or considered very simple scenarios of migration and ignored environmental information. However, it is likely that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) affected the demography and the range of many species, including our own. Moreover, long-distance dispersal (LDD) may have been an important component of human migrations, allowing fast colonization of new territories and preserving high levels of genetic diversity. Here, we use a high-quality microsatellite dataset genotyped in 22 populations to estimate the posterior probabilities of several scenarios for the settlement of the Old World by modern humans. We considered models ranging from a simple spatial expansion to others including LDD and a LGM-induced range contraction, as well as Neolithic demographic expansions. We find that scenarios with LDD are much better supported by data than models without LDD. Nevertheless, we show evidence that LDD events to empty habitats were strongly prevented during the settlement of Eurasia. This unexpected absence of LDD ahead of the colonization wave front could have been caused by an Allee effect, either due to intrinsic causes such as an inbreeding depression built during the expansion, or to extrinsic causes such as direct competition with archaic humans. Overall, our results suggest only a relatively limited effect of the LGM-contraction on current patterns of human diversity. This is in clear contrast with the major role of LDD migrations, which have potentially contributed to the intermingled genetic structure of Eurasian populations.