An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation: Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon cycle projections

An Ensemble Kalman Filter is applied to assimilate observed tracer fields in various combinations in the Bern3D ocean model. Each tracer combination yields a set of optimal transport parameter values that are used in projections with prescribed CO2 stabilization pathways. The assimilation of temperature and salinity fields yields a too vigorous ventilation of the thermocline and the deep ocean, whereas the inclusion of CFC-11 and radiocarbon improves the representation of physical and biogeochemical tracers and of ventilation time scales. Projected peak uptake rates and cumulative uptake of CO2 by the ocean are around 20% lower for the parameters determined with CFC-11 and radiocarbon as additional target compared to those with salinity and temperature only. Higher surface temperature changes are simulated in the Greenland–Norwegian–Iceland Sea and in the Southern Ocean when CFC-11 is included in the Ensemble Kalman model tuning. These findings highlights the importance of ocean transport calibration for the design of near-term and long-term CO2 emission mitigation strategies and for climate projections.

Frequency of PRRS live vaccine virus (European and North American genotype) in vaccinated and non-vaccinated pigs submitted for respiratory tract diagnostics in North-Western Germany

The frequency of PRRSV corresponding to live vaccines and wild-type was determined in 902 pigs from North-Western Germany submitted for post-mortem examination. Overall, 18.5% of the samples were positive for the EU wild-type virus. EU genotype vaccine virus was detected in 1.3% and the NA genotype vaccine virus in 8.9% of all samples. The detection of the EU vaccine was significantly higher in pigs vaccinated with the corresponding vaccine (OR=9.4). Pigs vaccinated with NA genotype had significantly higher detection chances for the corresponding vaccine virus when compared to non-vaccinated animals (OR=3.34) animals, however, NA vaccine was also frequently detected in non-vaccinated pigs. Concluding, the dynamics of NA genotype vaccine and EU wild-type virus corresponds with studies on PRRSV spread in endemically infected herds. The potential of spontaneous spread of the NA genotype vaccine should be considered in the planning of eradication programs.

Antigenic and genetic variations in European and North American equine influenza virus strains (H3N8) isolated from 2006 to 2007

Equine influenza virus (EIV) surveillance is important in the management of equine influenza. It provides data on circulating and newly emerging strains for vaccine strain selection. To this end, antigenic characterisation by haemaggluttination inhibition (HI) assay and phylogenetic analysis was carried out on 28 EIV strains isolated in North America and Europe during 2006 and 2007. In the UK, 20 viruses were isolated from 28 nasopharyngeal swabs that tested positive by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. All except two of the UK viruses were characterised as members of the Florida sublineage with similarity to A/eq/Newmarket/5/03 (clade 2). One isolate, A/eq/Cheshire/1/06, was characterised as an American lineage strain similar to viruses isolated up to 10 years earlier. A second isolate, A/eq/Lincolnshire/1/07 was characterised as a member of the Florida sublineage (clade 1) with similarity to A/eq/Wisconsin/03. Furthermore, A/eq/Lincolnshire/1/06 was a member of the Florida sublineage (clade 2) by haemagglutinin (HA) gene sequence, but appeared to be a member of the Eurasian lineage by the non-structural gene (NS) sequence suggesting that reassortment had occurred. A/eq/Switzerland/P112/07 was characterised as a member of the Eurasian lineage, the first time since 2005 that isolation of a virus from this lineage has been reported. Seven viruses from North America were classified as members of the Florida sublineage (clade 1), similar to A/eq/Wisconsin/03. In conclusion, a variety of antigenically distinct EIVs continue to circulate worldwide. Florida sublineage clade 1 viruses appear to predominate in North America, clade 2 viruses in Europe.

Amplified inception of European Little Ice Age by sea ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks

The inception of the Little Ice Age (~1400–1700 AD) is believed to have been driven by an interplay of external forcing and climate system internal variability. While the hemispheric signal seems to have been dominated by solar irradiance and volcanic eruptions, the understanding of mechanisms shaping the climate on a continental scale is less robust. In an ensemble of transient model simulations and a new type of sensitivity experiments with artificial sea ice growth, the authors identify a sea ice–ocean–atmosphere feedback mechanism that amplifies the Little Ice Age cooling in the North Atlantic–European region and produces the temperature pattern suggested by paleoclimatic reconstructions. Initiated by increasing negative forcing, the Arctic sea ice substantially expands at the beginning of the Little Ice Age. The excess of sea ice is exported to the subpolar North Atlantic, where it melts, thereby weakening convection of the ocean. Consequently, northward ocean heat transport is reduced, reinforcing the expansion of the sea ice and the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere. In the Nordic Seas, sea surface height anomalies cause the oceanic recirculation to strengthen at the expense of the warm Barents Sea inflow, thereby further reinforcing sea ice growth. The absent ocean–atmosphere heat flux in the Barents Sea results in an amplified cooling over Northern Europe. The positive nature of this feedback mechanism enables sea ice to remain in an expanded state for decades up to a century, favoring sustained cold periods over Europe such as the Little Ice Age. Support for the feedback mechanism comes from recent proxy reconstructions around the Nordic Seas.

Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January-April climate over the past half millennium: results and insights from instrumental data, documentary evidence and coupled climate models

We use long instrumental temperature series together with available field reconstructions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and three-dimensional climate model simulations to analyze relations between temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation patterns over much of Europe and the Mediterranean for the late winter/early spring (January–April, JFMA) season. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) investigates interannual to interdecadal covariability between a new gridded SLP field reconstruction and seven long instrumental temperature series covering the past 250 years. We then present and discuss prominent atmospheric circulation patterns related to anomalous warm and cold JFMA conditions within different European areas spanning the period 1760–2007. Next, using a data assimilation technique, we link gridded SLP data with a climate model (EC-Bilt-Clio) for a better dynamical understanding of the relationship between large scale circulation and European climate. We thus present an alternative approach to reconstruct climate for the pre-instrumental period based on the assimilated model simulations. Furthermore, we present an independent method to extend the dynamic circulation analysis for anomalously cold European JFMA conditions back to the sixteenth century. To this end, we use documentary records that are spatially representative for the long instrumental records and derive, through modern analogs, large-scale SLP, surface temperature and precipitation fields. The skill of the analog method is tested in the virtual world of two three-dimensional climate simulations (ECHO-G and HadCM3). This endeavor offers new possibilities to both constrain climate model into a reconstruction mode (through the assimilation approach) and to better asses documentary data in a quantitative way.

The chironomid-temperature relationship: expression in nature and palaeoenvironmental implications

Fossils of chironomid larvae (non-biting midges) preserved in lake sediments are well-established palaeotemperature indicators which, with the aid of numerical chironomid-based inference models (transfer functions), can provide quantitative estimates of past temperature change. This approach to temperature reconstruction relies on the strong relationship between air and lake surface water temperature and the distribution of individual chironomid taxa (species, species groups, genera) that has been observed in different climate regions (arctic, subarctic, temperate and tropical) in both the Northern and Southern hemisphere. A major complicating factor for the use of chironomids for palaeoclimate reconstruction which increases the uncertainty associated with chironomid-based temperature estimates is that the exact nature of the mechanism responsible for the strong relationship between temperature and chironomid assemblages in lakes remains uncertain. While a number of authors have provided state of the art overviews of fossil chironomid palaeoecology and the use of chironomids for temperature reconstruction, few have focused on examining the ecological basis for this approach. Here, we review the nature of the relationship between chironomids and temperature based on the available ecological evidence. After discussing many of the surveys describing the distribution of chironomid taxa in lake surface sediments in relation to temperature, we also examine evidence from laboratory and field studies exploring the effects of temperature on chironomid physiology, life cycles and behaviour. We show that, even though a direct influence of water temperature on chironomid development, growth and survival is well described, chironomid palaeoclimatology is presently faced with the paradoxical situation that the relationship between chironomid distribution and temperature seems strongest in relatively deep, thermally stratified lakes in temperate and subarctic regions in which the benthic chironomid fauna lives largely decoupled from the direct influence of air and surface water temperature. This finding suggests that indirect effects of temperature on physical and chemical characteristics of lakes play an important role in determining the distribution of lake-living chironomid larvae. However, we also demonstrate that no single indirect mechanism has been identified that can explain the strong relationship between chironomid distribution and temperature in all regions and datasets presently available. This observation contrasts with the previously published hypothesis that climatic effects on lake nutrient status and productivity may be largely responsible for the apparent correlation between chironomid assemblage distribution and temperature. We conclude our review by summarizing the implications of our findings for chironomid-based palaeoclimatology and by pointing towards further avenues of research necessary to improve our mechanistic understanding of the chironomid-temperature relationship.

European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June–August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951–2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986–2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850–2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.