Characterisation of flash floods in small ungauged mountain basins of Central Spain using an integrated approach

One of the main problems of flood hazard assessment in ungauged or poorly gauged basins is the lack of runoff data. In an attempt to overcome this problem we have combined archival records, dendrogeomorphic time series and instrumental data (daily rainfall and discharge) from four ungauged and poorly gauged mountain basins in Central Spain with the aim of reconstructing and compiling information on 41 flash flood events since the end of the 19th century. Estimation of historical discharge and the incorporation of uncertainty for the at-site and regional flood frequency analysis were performed with an empirical rainfall–runoff assessment as well as stochastic and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches. Results for each of the ungauged basins include flood frequency, severity, seasonality and triggers (synoptic meteorological situations). The reconstructed data series clearly demonstrates how uncertainty can be reduced by including historical information, but also points to the considerable influence of different approaches on quantile estimation. This uncertainty should be taken into account when these data are used for flood risk management.

Counting scars on tree stems to assess rockfall hazards: A low effort approach, but how reliable?

Rockfall is a widespread and hazardous process in mountain environments, but data on past events are only rarely available. Growth-ring series from trees impacted by rockfall were successfully used in the past to overcome the lack of archival records. Dendrogeomorphic techniques have been demonstrated to allow very accurate dating and reconstruction of spatial and temporal rockfall activity, but the approach has been cited to be labor intensive and time consuming. In this study, we present a simplified method to quantify rockfall processes on forested slopes requiring less time and efforts. The approach is based on a counting of visible scars on the stem surface of Common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). Data are presented from a site in the Inn valley (Austria), where rocks are frequently detached from an ~ 200-m-high, south-facing limestone cliff. We compare results obtained from (i) the “classical” analysis of growth disturbances in the tree-ring series of 33 Norway spruces (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and (ii) data obtained with a scar count on the stem surface of 50 F. sylvatica trees. A total of 277 rockfall events since A.D. 1819 could be reconstructed from tree-ring records of P. abies, whereas 1140 scars were observed on the stem surface of F. sylvatica. Absolute numbers of rockfalls (and hence return intervals) vary significantly between the approaches, and the mean number of rockfalls observed on the stem surface of F. sylvatica exceeds that of P. abies by a factor of 2.7. On the other hand, both methods yield comparable data on the spatial distribution of relative rockfall activity. Differences may be explained by a great portion of masked scars in P. abies and the conservation of signs of impacts on the stem of F. sylvatica. Besides, data indicate that several scars on the bark of F. sylvatica may stem from the same impact and thus lead to an overestimation of rockfall activity.

Molecular risk assessment of BIG 1-98 participants by expression profiling using RNA from archival tissue

The purpose of the work reported here is to test reliable molecular profiles using routinely processed formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues from participants of the clinical trial BIG 1-98 with a median follow-up of 60 months.

Supply sensitive services in Swiss ambulatory care: an analysis of basic health insurance records for 2003-2007

Swiss ambulatory care is characterized by independent, and primarily practice-based, physicians, receiving fee for service reimbursement. This study analyses supply sensitive services using ambulatory care claims data from mandatory health insurance. A first research question was aimed at the hypothesis that physicians with large patient lists decrease their intensity of services and bill less per patient to health insurance, and vice versa: physicians with smaller patient lists compensate for the lack of patients with additional visits and services. A second research question relates to the fact that several cantons are allowing physicians to directly dispense drugs to patients ('self-dispensation') whereas other cantons restrict such direct sales to emergencies only. This second question was based on the assumption that patterns of rescheduling patients for consultations may differ across channels of dispensing prescription drugs and therefore the hypothesis of different consultation costs in this context was investigated.

Deglaciation records of 17O-excess in East Antarctica: reliable reconstruction of oceanic relative humidity from coastal sites

We measured δ17O and δ18O in two Antarctic ice cores at EPICA Dome C (EDC) and TALDICE (TD), respectively and computed 17O-excess with respect to VSMOW. The comparison of our 17O-excess data with the previous record obtained at Vostok (Landais et al., 2008) revealed differences up to 35 ppm in 17O-excess mean level and evolution for the three sites. Our data showed that the large increase depicted at Vostok (20 ppm) during the last deglaciation, is a regional and not a general pattern in the temporal distribution of 17O-excess in East Antarctica. The EDC data display an increase of 13 ppm, whereas the TD data show no significant variation from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Early Holocene (EH). Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic revealed very different source regions for Vostok and EDC compared to TD. These findings combined with the results of a sensitivity analysis, using a Rayleigh-type isotopic model, suggest that relative humidity (RH) at the oceanic source region (OSR) are a determining factor for the spatial differences of 17O-excess in East Antarctica. However, 17O-excess in remote sites of continental Antarctica (e.g. Vostok) may be highly sensitive to local effects. Hence, we consider 17O-excess in coastal East Antarctic ice cores (TD) to be more reliable as a proxy for RH at the OSR.