Apparent survival of the salamander

Background Understanding the demographic processes underlying population dynamics is a central theme in ecology. Populations decline if losses from the population (i.e., mortality and emigration) exceed gains (i.e., recruitment and immigration). Amphibians are thought to exhibit little movement even though local populations often fluctuate dramatically and are likely to go exinct if there is no rescue effect through immigration from nearby populations. Terrestrial salamanders are generally portrayed as amphibians with low migratory activity. Our study uses demographic analysis as a key to unravel whether emigration or mortality is the main cause of "losses" from the population. In particular, we use the analysis to challenge the common belief that terrestrial salamanders show low migratory activity. Results The mark-recapture analysis of adult salamanders showed that monthly survival was high (> 90%) without a seasonal pattern. These estimates, however, translate into rather low rates of local annual survival of only ~40% and suggest that emigration was important. The estimated probability of emigration was 49%. Conclusion Our analysis shows that terrestrial salamanders exhibit more migratory activity than commonly thought. This may be due either because the spatial extent of salamander populations is underestimated or because there is a substantial exchange of individuals between populations. Our current results are in line with several other studies that suggest high migratory activity in amphibians. In particular, many amphibian populations may be characterized by high proportions of transients and/or floaters.

Clinical signs of deformed wing virus infection are predictive markers for honey bee colony losses.

The ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor acting as a virus vector constitutes a central mechanism for losses of managed honey bee, Apis mellifera, colonies. This creates demand for an easy, accurate and cheap diagnostic tool to estimate the impact of viruliferous mites in the field. Here we evaluated whether the clinical signs of the ubiquitous and mite-transmitted deformed wing virus (DWV) can be predictive markers of winter losses. In fall and winter 2007/2008, A.m. carnica workers with apparent wing deformities were counted daily in traps installed on 29 queenright colonies. The data show that colonies which later died had a significantly higher proportion of workers with wing deformities than did those which survived. There was a significant positive correlation between V. destructor infestation levels and the number of workers displaying DWV clinical signs, further supporting the mite's impact on virus infections at the colony level. A logistic regression model suggests that colony size, the number of workers with wing deformities and V. destructor infestation levels constitute predictive markers for winter colony losses in this order of importance and ease of evaluation.

Virus infections and winter losses of honey bee colonies (Apis mellifera)

Apiculturists have recently been confronted with drastic and inexplicable winter losses of colonies, and virus infections may be involved. Here, we surveyed 337 Swiss honey bee colonies in the winter of 2005 and 2006 and categorized their health status as: 1. dead (= no or few live bees left); 2. weak (= dwindling, high mortality of adult bees); or 3. healthy (= normal overwintering colony). From each colony, pooled adult workers were analyzed for deformed wing virus (DWV), acute bee paralysis virus (ABPV), chronic bee paralysis virus (CBPV) and Kashmir bee virus (KBV). Neither KBV nor CBPV were found, but significantly higher ABPV and DWV infections were found in dead vs. weak vs. healthy colonies (except DWV in 2006 between weak and healthy). Moreover, ABPV and DWV loads were positively correlated with each other. This is the first report demonstrating statistically significant correlations between viruses associated with Varroa destructor and winter mortality.

Winter Losses of Honeybee Colonies (Hymenoptera: Apidae): The Role of Infestations With Aethina tumida (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) and Varroa destructor (Parasitiformes: Varroidae)

Multiple infections of managed honeybee, Apis mellifera, colonies are inevitable due to the ubiquitous ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor and might be an underlying cause of winter losses. Here we investigated the role of adult small hive beetles, Aethina tumida, alone and in combination with V. destructor for winter losses and for infections with the microsporidian endoparasite Nosema ceranae. We found no significant influence of A. tumida and V destructor alone or in combination on the numbers of N. ceranae spores. Likewise, A. tumida alone had no significant effects on winter losses, which is most likely due to the observed high winter mortality of the adult beetles. Therefore, our data suggest that A. tumida is unlikely to contribute to losses of overwintering honeybee colonies. However, high losses occurred in all groups highly infested with V. destructor, supporting the central role of the mite for colony losses.

CT screening and follow-up of lung nodules: effects of tube current-time setting and nodule size and density on detectability and of tube current-time setting on apparent size

The purpose of the study was to quantify and compare the effect of CT dose and of size and density of nodules on the detectability of lung nodules and to quantify the influence of CT dose on the size of the nodules.

Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region

The influence of climate change on storm surges including increased mean sea level change and the associated insurable losses are assessed for the North Sea basin. In doing so, the newly developed approach couples a dynamical storm surge model with a loss model. The key element of the approach is the generation of a probabilistic storm surge event set. Together with parametrizations of the inland propagation and the coastal protection failure probability this enables the estimation of annual expected losses. The sensitivity to the parametrizations is rather weak except when the assumption of high level of increased mean sea level change is made. Applying this approach to future scenarios shows a substantial increase of insurable losses with respect to the present day. Superimposing different mean sea level changes shows a nonlinear behavior at the country level, as the future storm surge changes are higher for Germany and Denmark. Thus, the study exhibits the necessity to assess the socio-economic impacts of coastal floods by combining the expected sea level rise with storm surge projections.

The new insight into dynamic crossover in glass forming liquids from the apparent enthalpy analysis

One of the most intriguing phenomena in glass forming systems is the dynamic crossover (T(B)), occurring well above the glass temperature (T(g)). So far, it was estimated mainly from the linearized derivative analysis of the primary relaxation time τ(T) or viscosity η(T) experimental data, originally proposed by Stickel et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 104, 2043 (1996); J. Chem. Phys. 107, 1086 (1997)]. However, this formal procedure is based on the general validity of the Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann equation, which has been strongly questioned recently [T. Hecksher et al. Nature Phys. 4, 737 (2008); P. Lunkenheimer et al. Phys. Rev. E 81, 051504 (2010); J. C. Martinez-Garcia et al. J. Chem. Phys. 134, 024512 (2011)]. We present a qualitatively new way to identify the dynamic crossover based on the apparent enthalpy space (H(a)(') = dlnτ/d(1/T)) analysis via a new plot lnH(a)(') vs. 1∕T supported by the Savitzky-Golay filtering procedure for getting an insight into the noise-distorted high order derivatives. It is shown that depending on the ratio between the "virtual" fragility in the high temperature dynamic domain (m(high)) and the "real" fragility at T(g) (the low temperature dynamic domain, m = m(low)) glass formers can be splitted into two groups related to f < 1 and f > 1, (f = m(high)∕m(low)). The link of this phenomenon to the ratio between the apparent enthalpy and activation energy as well as the behavior of the configurational entropy is indicated.