Neural correlates of anticipation risk reflect risk preferences

Individual risk preferences have a large influence on decisions, such as financial investments, career and health choices, or gambling. Decision making under risk has been studied both behaviorally and on a neural level. It remains unclear, however, how risk attitudes are encoded and integrated with choice. Here, we investigate how risk preferences are reflected in neural regions known to process risk. We collected functional magnetic resonance images of 56 human subjects during a gambling task (Preuschoff et al., 2006). Subjects were grouped into risk averters and risk seekers according to the risk preferences they revealed in a separate lottery task. We found that during the anticipation of high-risk gambles, risk averters show stronger responses in ventral striatum and anterior insula compared to risk seekers. In addition, risk prediction error signals in anterior insula, inferior frontal gyrus, and anterior cingulate indicate that risk averters do not dissociate properly between gambles that are more or less risky than expected. We suggest this may result in a general overestimation of prospective risk and lead to risk avoidance behavior. This is the first study to show that behavioral risk preferences are reflected in the passive evaluation of risky situations. The results have implications on public policies in the financial and health domain.

Effects of Anxiety on Anticipation and Visual Search in Dynamic, Time-Constrained Situations

We tested the predictions of Attentional Control Theory (ACT) by examining how anxiety affects visual search strategies, performance efficiency, and performance effectiveness using a dynamic, temporal-constrained anticipation task. Higher and lower skilled players viewed soccer situations under 2 task constraints (near vs. far situation) and were tested under high (HA) and low (LA) anxiety conditions. Response accuracy (effectiveness) and response time, perceived mental effort, and eye-movements (all efficiency) were recorded. A significant increase in anxiety was evidenced by higher state anxiety ratings on the MRF-L scale. Increased anxiety led to decreased performance efficiency because response times and mental effort increased for both skill groups whereas response accuracy did not differ. Anxiety influenced search strategies, with higher skilled players showing a decrease in number of fixation locations for far situations under HA compared with LA condition when compared with lower skilled players. Findings provide support for ACT with anxiety impairing processing efficiency and, potentially, top-down attentional control across different task constraints.

Indigenous knowledge related to climate variability and change: insights from droughts in semi-arid areas of former Makueni District, Kenya

This article describes the indigenous knowledge (IK) that agro-pastoralists in larger Makueni District, Kenya hold and how they use it to monitor, mitigate and adapt to drought. It examines ways of integrating IK into formal monitoring, how to enhance its value and acceptability. Data was collected through target interviews, group discussions and questionnaires covering 127 households in eight villages. Daily rainfall data from 1961–2003 were analysed. Results show that agro-pastoralists hold IK on indicators of rainfall variability; they believe in IK efficacy and they rely on them. Because agro-pastoralists consult additional sources, the authors interpret that IK forms a basic knowledge frame within which agro-pastoralists position and interpret meteorological forecasts. Only a few agro-pastoralists adapt their practices in anticipation of IK-based forecasts partly due to the conditioning of the actors to the high rainfall variability characteristic of the area and partly due to lack of resources. Non-drought factors such as poverty, inadequate resources and lack of preparedness expose agro-pastoralists to drought impacts and limit their adaptive capacity. These factors need to be understood and effectively addressed to increase agro-pastoralists’ decision options and the influence of IK-based forecasts on their decision-making patterns. The limited intergenerational transfer of IK currently threatens its existence in the longer term. One way to ensure its continued existence and use is to integrate IK into the education curriculum and to link IK with formal climate change research through the participation of the local people. However, further studies are necessary to address the reliability and validity of the identified IK indicators of climate variability and change.

Should intentional endovascular stent-graft coverage of the left subclavian artery be preceded by prophylactic revascularisation?

Thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) has emerged as a promising therapeutic alternative to conventional open aortic replacement but it requires suitable proximal and distal landing zones for stent-graft anchoring. Many aortic pathologies affect in the immediate proximity of the left subclavian artery (LSA) limiting the proximal landing zone site without proximal vessel coverage. In patients in whom the distance between the LSA and aortic lesion is too short, extension of the landing zone can be obtained by covering the LSA's origin with the endovascular stent graft (ESG). This manoeuvre has the potential for immediate and delayed neurological and vascular symptoms. Some authors, therefore, propose prophylactic revascularisation of the LSA by transposition or bypass, while others suggest prophylactic revascularisation only under certain conditions, and still others see no requirement for prophylactic revascularisation in anticipation of LSA ostium coverage. In this review about LSA revascularisation in TEVAR patients with coverage of the LSA, we searched the electronic databases MEDLINE and EMBASE historically until the end date of May 2010 with the search terms left subclavian artery, covering, endovascular, revascularisation and thoracic aorta. We have gathered the most complete scientific evidence available used to support the various concepts to deal with this issue. After a review of the current available literature, 23 relevant articles were found, where we have identified and analysed three basic treatment concepts for LSA revascularisation in TEVAR patients (prophylactic, conditional prophylactic and no prophylactic LSA revascularisation). The available evidence supports prophylactic revascularisation of the LSA before ESG LSA coverage when preoperative imaging reveals abnormal supra-aortic vascular anatomy or pathology. We further conclude that elective patients undergoing planned coverage of the LSA during TEVAR should receive prophylactic LSA transposition or LSA-to-left-common-carotid-artery (LCCA) bypass surgery to prevent severe neurological complications, such as paraplegia or brain stem infarction.

Dopaminergic modulation of the human reward system: a placebo-controlled dopamine depletion fMRI study

Reward related behaviour is linked to dopaminergic neurotransmission. Our aim was to gain insight into dopaminergic involvement in the human reward system. Combining functional magnetic resonance imaging with dopaminergic depletion by α-methylparatyrosine we measured dopamine-related brain activity in 10 healthy volunteers. In addition to blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) contrast we assessed the effect of dopaminergic depletion on prolactin response, peripheral markers for dopamine and norepinephrine. In the placebo condition we found increased activation in the left caudate and left cingulate gyrus during anticipation of reward. In the α-methylparatyrosine condition there was no significant brain activation during anticipation of reward or loss. In α-methylparatyrosine, anticipation of reward vs. loss increased activation in the right insula, left frontal, right parietal cortices and right cingulate gyrus. Comparing placebo versus α-methylparatyrosine showed increased activation in the left cingulate gyrus during anticipation of reward and the left medial frontal gyrus during anticipation of loss. α-methylparatyrosine reduced levels of dopamine in urine and homovanillic acid in plasma and increased prolactin. No significant effect of α-methylparatyrosine was found on norepinephrine markers. Our findings implicate distinct patterns of BOLD underlying reward processing following dopamine depletion, suggesting a role of dopaminergic neurotransmission for anticipation of monetary reward.

Learning from failure--rationale and design for a study about discontinuation of randomized trials (DISCO study)

Background Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) may be discontinued because of apparent harm, benefit, or futility. Other RCTs are discontinued early because of insufficient recruitment. Trial discontinuation has ethical implications, because participants consent on the premise of contributing to new medical knowledge, Research Ethics Committees (RECs) spend considerable effort reviewing study protocols, and limited resources for conducting research are wasted. Currently, little is known regarding the frequency and characteristics of discontinued RCTs. Methods/Design Our aims are, first, to determine the prevalence of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons; second, to determine whether the risk of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons differs between investigator- and industry-initiated RCTs; third, to identify risk factors for RCT discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment; fourth, to determine at what stage RCTs are discontinued; and fifth, to examine the publication history of discontinued RCTs. We are currently assembling a multicenter cohort of RCTs based on protocols approved between 2000 and 2002/3 by 6 RECs in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. We are extracting data on RCT characteristics and planned recruitment for all included protocols. Completion and publication status is determined using information from correspondence between investigators and RECs, publications identified through literature searches, or by contacting the investigators. We will use multivariable regression models to identify risk factors for trial discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment. We aim to include over 1000 RCTs of which an anticipated 150 will have been discontinued due to insufficient recruitment. Discussion Our study will provide insights into the prevalence and characteristics of RCTs that were discontinued. Effective recruitment strategies and the anticipation of problems are key issues in the planning and evaluation of trials by investigators, Clinical Trial Units, RECs and funding agencies. Identification and modification of barriers to successful study completion at an early stage could help to reduce the risk of trial discontinuation, save limited resources, and enable RCTs to better meet their ethical requirements.

Emotional stress reactivity in irritable bowel syndrome

OBJECTIVES: Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) has been proposed to be a stress-related disorder. Research on stress reactivity in IBS has yielded ambiguous results, regarding responses to physical and mental stress. This study aimed to investigate the responses to emotional stress in IBS patients. METHODS: Twelve IBS patients and 12 healthy individuals underwent public speaking anticipation as an emotional stressor and a control situation. Stress reactivity was quantified by subjective and psychophysiological measures. RESULTS: Stress responses were elicited in healthy controls and IBS patients. Differential stress responses were observed in measurements of heart rate. There was no change in rectal sensitivity under stress, whereas patients exhibited lower discomfort thresholds than healthy controls in all conditions. CONCLUSION: This study measured reactivity to an emotional stressor in IBS. It provides evidence that there is a specific alteration of stress responses in IBS patients, but no overall exaggerated stress response. IBS patients showed a broader and less specific response to emotional stress than healthy controls. Rectal sensitivity was unchanged under emotional stress both in IBS patients and healthy controls.

Glucocorticoids reduce phobic fear in humans

Phobias are characterized by excessive fear, cued by the presence or anticipation of a fearful situation. Whereas it is well established that glucocorticoids are released in fearful situations, it is not known whether these hormones, in turn, modulate perceived fear. As extensive evidence indicates that elevated glucocorticoid levels impair the retrieval of emotionally arousing information, they might also inhibit retrieval of fear memory associated with phobia and, thereby, reduce phobic fear. Here, we investigated whether acutely administrated glucocorticoids reduced phobic fear in two double-blind, placebo-controlled studies in 40 subjects with social phobia and 20 subjects with spider phobia. In the social phobia study, cortisone (25 mg) administered orally 1 h before a socio-evaluative stressor significantly reduced self-reported fear during the anticipation, exposure, and recovery phase of the stressor. Moreover, the stress-induced release of cortisol in placebo-treated subjects correlated negatively with fear ratings, suggesting that endogenously released cortisol in the context of a phobic situation buffers fear symptoms. In the spider phobia study, repeated oral administration of cortisol (10 mg), but not placebo, 1 h before exposure to a spider photograph induced a progressive reduction of stimulus-induced fear. This effect was maintained when subjects were exposed to the stimulus again 2 days after the last cortisol administration, suggesting that cortisol may also have facilitated the extinction of phobic fear. Cortisol treatment did not reduce general, phobia-unrelated anxiety. In conclusion, the present findings in two distinct types of phobias indicate that glucocorticoid administration reduces phobic fear.

Processing of temporal unpredictability in human and animal amygdala

The amygdala has been studied extensively for its critical role in associative fear conditioning in animals and humans. Noxious stimuli, such as those used for fear conditioning, are most effective in eliciting behavioral responses and amygdala activation when experienced in an unpredictable manner. Here, we show, using a translational approach in mice and humans, that unpredictability per se without interaction with motivational information is sufficient to induce sustained neural activity in the amygdala and to elicit anxiety-like behavior. Exposing mice to mere temporal unpredictability within a time series of neutral sound pulses in an otherwise neutral sensory environment increased expression of the immediate-early gene c-fos and prevented rapid habituation of single neuron activity in the basolateral amygdala. At the behavioral level, unpredictable, but not predictable, auditory stimulation induced avoidance and anxiety-like behavior. In humans, functional magnetic resonance imaging revealed that temporal unpredictably causes sustained neural activity in amygdala and anxiety-like behavior as quantified by enhanced attention toward emotional faces. Our findings show that unpredictability per se is an important feature of the sensory environment influencing habituation of neuronal activity in amygdala and emotional behavior and indicate that regulation of amygdala habituation represents an evolutionary-conserved mechanism for adapting behavior in anticipation of temporally unpredictable events.

Sight-reading of violinists: eye movements anticipate the musical flow

When sight-reading a piece of music the eyes constantly scan the score slightly ahead of music execution. This separation between reading and acting is commonly termed eye-hand span and can be expressed in two ways: as anticipation in notes or in time. Previous research, predominantly in piano players, found skill-dependent differences of eye-hand span. To date no study has explored visual anticipation in violinists. The present study investigated how structural properties of a piece of music affect the eye-hand span in a group of violinists. To this end eye movements and bow reversals were recorded synchronously while musicians sight-read a piece of music. The results suggest that structural differences of the score are reflected in the eye-hand span in a way similar to skill level. Specifically, the piece with higher complexity was associated with lower anticipation in notes, longer fixation duration and a tendency for more regressive fixations. Anticipation in time, however, remained the same (approximately 1 s) independently of the score played but was correlated with playing tempo. We conclude that the eye-hand span is not only influenced by the experience of the musician, but also by the structure of the score to be played.

Target difficulty, intra-year target revisions and firm performance: evidence from business units' targets

Target difficulty is often argued to increase performance. While this association is well established in experimental research, empirical evidence in field research is rather mixed. We attempt to explain this inconsistency by analyzing the importance of intra-year target revisions, which are especially prevalent in real-world field settings. Using survey and archival data from 97 firms, we find that firms with more challenging business unit targets revise targets more often, in line with asymmetric, downward target revisions. Results further show that the degree to which targets are revised during a period results in negative effects on firm performance, as the anticipation of revision negatively affects the business unit management’s performance incentives. Additionally, we find that using targets predominantly for either decision-making or control influences the overall performance effects of target revisions. Our findings may partially explain the mixed field study evidence regarding the effects of target difficulty.

Corporate acquisitions by listed firms: the experience of a comprehensive sample

The sample used includes tender offers, mergers, acquisitions of privately held corporations, and comprehensive acquisitions of other firms' assets. According to the results, the majority of bid announcements prompt significant stock price increases, especially when controlling for partial anticipation problems and relative acquisition size. Furthermore, there is little evidence that firms that engage in "bad" acquisitions are more likely to be taken over.

Dopaminergic modulation of the reward system in schizophrenia: A placebo-controlled dopamine depletion fMRI study

Background The brain reward circuitry innervated by dopamine is critically disturbed in schizophrenia. This study aims to investigate the role of dopamine-related brain activity during prediction of monetary reward and loss in first episode schizophrenia patients. Methods We measured blood–oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) activity in 10 patients with schizophrenia (SCH) and 12 healthy controls during dopamine depletion with α-methylparatyrosine (AMPT) and during a placebo condition (PLA). Results AMPT reduced the activation of striatal and cortical brain regions in SCH. In SCH vs. controls reduced activation was found in the AMPT condition in several regions during anticipation of reward and loss, including areas of the striatum and frontal cortex. In SCH vs. controls reduced activation of the superior temporal gyrus and posterior cingulate was observed in PLA during anticipation of rewarding stimuli. PLA patients had reduced activation in the ventral striatum, frontal and cingulate cortex in anticipation of loss. The findings of reduced dopamine-related brain activity during AMPT were verified by reduced levels of dopamine in urine, homovanillic-acid in plasma and increased prolactin levels. Conclusions Our results indicate that dopamine depletion affects functioning of the cortico-striatal reward circuitry in SCH. The findings also suggest that neuronal functions associated with dopamine neurotransmission and attribution of salience to reward predicting stimuli are altered in schizophrenia.