Prediction of hip fracture risk by quantitative ultrasound in more than 7000 Swiss women > or =70 years of age: comparison of three technologically different bone ultrasound devices in the SEMOF study

To compare the prediction of hip fracture risk of several bone ultrasounds (QUS), 7062 Swiss women > or =70 years of age were measured with three QUSs (two of the heel, one of the phalanges). Heel QUSs were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS was not. INTRODUCTION: As the number of hip fracture is expected to increase during these next decades, it is important to develop strategies to detect subjects at risk. Quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS), an ionizing radiation-free method, which is transportable, could be interesting for this purpose. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk (SEMOF) study is a multicenter cohort study, which compared three QUSs for the assessment of hip fracture risk in a sample of 7609 elderly ambulatory women > or =70 years of age. Two QUSs measured the heel (Achilles+; GE-Lunar and Sahara; Hologic), and one measured the heel (DBM Sonic 1200; IGEA). The Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the hazard of the first hip fracture, adjusted for age, BMI, and center, and the area under the ROC curves were calculated to compare the devices and their parameters. RESULTS: From the 7609 women who were included in the study, 7062 women 75.2 +/- 3.1 (SD) years of age were prospectively followed for 2.9 +/- 0.8 years. Eighty women reported a hip fracture. A decrease by 1 SD of the QUS variables corresponded to an increase of the hip fracture risk from 2.3 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.1) to 2.6 (95% CI, 1.9, 3.4) for the three variables of Achilles+ and from 2.2 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.0) to 2.4 (95% CI, 1.8, 3.2) for the three variables of Sahara. Risk gradients did not differ significantly among the variables of the two heel QUS devices. On the other hand, the phalanges QUS (DBM Sonic 1200) was not predictive of hip fracture risk, with an adjusted hazard risk of 1.2 (95% CI, 0.9, 1.5), even after reanalysis of the digitalized data and using different cut-off levels (1700 or 1570 m/s). CONCLUSIONS: In this elderly women population, heel QUS devices were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS device was not.

Bone mineral density (BMD) and vertebral trabecular bone score (TBS) for the identification of elderly women at high risk for fracture: the SEMOF cohort study

PURPOSE To determine the predictive value of the vertebral trabecular bone score (TBS) alone or in addition to bone mineral density (BMD) with regard to fracture risk. METHODS Retrospective analysis of the relative contribution of BMD [measured at the femoral neck (FN), total hip (TH), and lumbar spine (LS)] and TBS with regard to the risk of incident clinical fractures in a representative cohort of elderly post-menopausal women previously participating in the Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk study. RESULTS Complete datasets were available for 556 of 701 women (79 %). Mean age 76.1 years, LS BMD 0.863 g/cm(2), and TBS 1.195. LS BMD and LS TBS were moderately correlated (r (2) = 0.25). After a mean of 2.7 ± 0.8 years of follow-up, the incidence of fragility fractures was 9.4 %. Age- and BMI-adjusted hazard ratios per standard deviation decrease (95 % confidence intervals) were 1.58 (1.16-2.16), 1.77 (1.31-2.39), and 1.59 (1.21-2.09) for LS, FN, and TH BMD, respectively, and 2.01 (1.54-2.63) for TBS. Whereas 58 and 60 % of fragility fractures occurred in women with BMD T score ≤-2.5 and a TBS <1.150, respectively, combining these two thresholds identified 77 % of all women with an osteoporotic fracture. CONCLUSIONS Lumbar spine TBS alone or in combination with BMD predicted incident clinical fracture risk in a representative population-based sample of elderly post-menopausal women.