An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation: Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon cycle projections

An Ensemble Kalman Filter is applied to assimilate observed tracer fields in various combinations in the Bern3D ocean model. Each tracer combination yields a set of optimal transport parameter values that are used in projections with prescribed CO2 stabilization pathways. The assimilation of temperature and salinity fields yields a too vigorous ventilation of the thermocline and the deep ocean, whereas the inclusion of CFC-11 and radiocarbon improves the representation of physical and biogeochemical tracers and of ventilation time scales. Projected peak uptake rates and cumulative uptake of CO2 by the ocean are around 20% lower for the parameters determined with CFC-11 and radiocarbon as additional target compared to those with salinity and temperature only. Higher surface temperature changes are simulated in the Greenland–Norwegian–Iceland Sea and in the Southern Ocean when CFC-11 is included in the Ensemble Kalman model tuning. These findings highlights the importance of ocean transport calibration for the design of near-term and long-term CO2 emission mitigation strategies and for climate projections.

Simulating Carbon Stocks and Fluxes of an African Tropical Montane Forest with an Individual-Based Forest Model

Tropical forests are carbon-dense and highly productive ecosystems. Consequently, they play an important role in the global carbon cycle. In the present study we used an individual-based forest model (FORMIND) to analyze the carbon balances of a tropical forest. The main processes of this model are tree growth, mortality, regeneration, and competition. Model parameters were calibrated using forest inventory data from a tropical forest at Mt. Kilimanjaro. The simulation results showed that the model successfully reproduces important characteristics of tropical forests (aboveground biomass, stem size distribution and leaf area index). The estimated aboveground biomass (385 t/ha) is comparable to biomass values in the Amazon and other tropical forests in Africa. The simulated forest reveals a gross primary production of 24 tcha-1yr-1. Modeling above- and belowground carbon stocks, we analyzed the carbon balance of the investigated tropical forest. The simulated carbon balance of this old-growth forest is zero on average. This study provides an example of how forest models can be used in combination with forest inventory data to investigate forest structure and local carbon balances.

Tuberculosis in Cape Town: An age-structured transmission model.

BACKGROUND Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death in South Africa. The burden of disease varies by age, with peaks in TB notification rates in the HIV-negative population at ages 0-5, 20-24, and 45-49 years. There is little variation between age groups in the rates in the HIV-positive population. The drivers of this age pattern remain unknown. METHODS We developed an age-structured simulation model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in Cape Town, South Africa. We considered five states of TB progression: susceptible, infected (latent TB), active TB, treated TB, and treatment default. Latently infected individuals could be re-infected; a previous Mtb infection slowed progression to active disease. We further considered three states of HIV progression: HIV negative, HIV positive, on antiretroviral therapy. To parameterize the model, we analysed treatment outcomes from the Cape Town electronic TB register, social mixing patterns from a Cape Town community and used literature estimates for other parameters. To investigate the main drivers behind the age patterns, we conducted sensitivity analyses on all parameters related to the age structure. RESULTS The model replicated the age patterns in HIV-negative TB notification rates of Cape Town in 2009. Simulated TB notification rate in HIV-negative patients was 1000/100,000 person-years (pyrs) in children aged <5 years and decreased to 51/100,000 in children 5-15 years. The peak in early adulthood occurred at 25-29 years (463/100,000 pyrs). After a subsequent decline, simulated TB notification rates gradually increased from the age of 30 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that the dip after the early adult peak was due to the protective effect of latent TB and that retreatment TB was mainly responsible for the rise in TB notification rates from the age of 30 years. CONCLUSION The protective effect of a first latent infection on subsequent infections and the faster progression in previously treated patients are the key determinants of the age-structure of TB notification rates in Cape Town.

Oxidative stress and inflammation response after nanoparticle exposure: differences between human lung cell monocultures and an advanced three-dimensional model of the human epithelial airways

Combustion-derived and manufactured nanoparticles (NPs) are known to provoke oxidative stress and inflammatory responses in human lung cells; therefore, they play an important role during the development of adverse health effects. As the lungs are composed of more than 40 different cell types, it is of particular interest to perform toxicological studies with co-cultures systems, rather than with monocultures of only one cell type, to gain a better understanding of complex cellular reactions upon exposure to toxic substances. Monocultures of A549 human epithelial lung cells, human monocyte-derived macrophages and monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MDDCs) as well as triple cell co-cultures consisting of all three cell types were exposed to combustion-derived NPs (diesel exhaust particles) and to manufactured NPs (titanium dioxide and single-walled carbon nanotubes). The penetration of particles into cells was analysed by transmission electron microscopy. The amount of intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS), the total antioxidant capacity (TAC) and the production of tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha and interleukin (IL)-8 were quantified. The results of the monocultures were summed with an adjustment for the number of each single cell type in the triple cell co-culture. All three particle types were found in all cell and culture types. The production of ROS was induced by all particle types in all cell cultures except in monocultures of MDDCs. The TAC and the (pro-)inflammatory reactions were not statistically significantly increased by particle exposure in any of the cell cultures. Interestingly, in the triple cell co-cultures, the TAC and IL-8 concentrations were lower and the TNF-alpha concentrations were higher than the expected values calculated from the monocultures. The interplay of different lung cell types seems to substantially modulate the oxidative stress and the inflammatory responses after NP exposure.

A protective antiarrhythmic role of ursodeoxycholic acid in an in vitro rat model of the cholestatic fetal heart

Intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy may be complicated by fetal arrhythmia, fetal hypoxia, preterm labor, and, in severe cases, intrauterine death. The precise etiology of fetal death is not known. However, taurocholate has been demonstrated to cause arrhythmia and abnormal calcium dynamics in cardiomyocytes. To identify the underlying reason for increased susceptibility of fetal cardiomyocytes to arrhythmia, we studied myofibroblasts (MFBs), which appear during structural remodeling of the adult diseased heart. In vitro, they depolarize rat cardiomyocytes via heterocellular gap junctional coupling. Recently, it has been hypothesized that ventricular MFBs might appear in the developing human heart, triggered by physiological fetal hypoxia. However, their presence in the fetal heart (FH) and their proarrhythmogenic effects have not been systematically characterized. Immunohistochemistry demonstrated that ventricular MFBs transiently appear in the human FH during gestation. We established two in vitro models of the maternal heart (MH) and FH, both exposed to increasing doses of taurocholate. The MH model consisted of confluent strands of rat cardiomyocytes, whereas for the FH model, we added cardiac MFBs on top of cardiomyocytes. Taurocholate in the FH model, but not in the MH model, slowed conduction velocity from 19 to 9 cm/s, induced early after depolarizations, and resulted in sustained re-entrant arrhythmias. These arrhythmic events were prevented by ursodeoxycholic acid, which hyperpolarized MFB membrane potential by modulating potassium conductance. CONCLUSION: These results illustrate that the appearance of MFBs in the FH may contribute to arrhythmias. The above-described mechanism represents a new therapeutic approach for cardiac arrhythmias at the level of MFB.

Development of an in vivo experimental model for percutaneous vertebroplasty in sheep

Several studies have described 'open' approach techniques for cementation of sheep and goat vertebrae; however, no percutaneous technique has been developed so far for use in non-primates. The aim of this study was to develop an animal model for percutaneous vertebroplasty under clinical conditions.

An optimized in vitro model of the respiratory tract wall to study particle cell interactions

As a part of the respiratory tissue barrier, lung epithelial cells play an important role against the penetration of the body by inhaled particulate foreign materials. In most cell culture models, which are designed to study particle-cell interactions, the cells are immersed in medium. This does not reflect the physiological condition of lung epithelial cells which are exposed to air, separated from it only by a very thin liquid lining layer with a surfactant film at the air-liquid interface. In this study, A549 epithelial cells were grown on microporous membranes in a two chamber system. After the formation of a confluent monolayer the cells were exposed to air. The morphology of the cells and the expression of tight junction proteins were studied with confocal laser scanning and transmission electron microscopy. Air-exposed cells maintained monolayer structure for 2 days, expressed tight junctions and developed transepithelial electrical resistance. Surfactant was produced and released at the apical side of the air-exposed epithelial cells. In order to study particle-cell interactions fluorescent 1 microm polystyrene particles were sprayed over the epithelial surface. After 4 h, 8.8% of particles were found inside the epithelium. This fraction increased to 38% after 24 h. During all observations, particles were always found in the cells but never between them. In this study, we present an in vitro model of the respiratory tract wall consisting of air-exposed lung epithelial cells covered by a liquid lining layer with a surfactant film to study particle-cell interactions.

Influence of dextrans on cardiac preservation in an extracorporeal rat heart model

Despite advances in preservation techniques for thoracic organs, the ischemic tolerance of the donor heart is still limited. Recently, a beneficial effect of oncotic substances such as dextran was shown in lung transplantation. Clinically, only in the University of Wisconsin (UW) solution oncotic substances for the prevention of cellular edema are used. Since little is known about the perspective value of dextrans in cardiac preservation, we investigated dextrans with different molecular weights added to the St. Thomas Hospital solution in an experimental working rat heart Langendorff model for functional and histological aspects. By comparison of various dextrans with molecular weights of 40,000, 70,000 and 160,000 daltons, best results were achieved by the addition of 5% dextran with the highest molecular weight.