Adapting agricultural land management to climate change: a regional multi-objective optimization approach

In several regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural systems. Changes in land management are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, including land-use changes and local adjustments of agricultural practices. In previous studies, options for adaptation have mostly been explored by testing alternative scenarios. Systematic explorations of land management possibilities using optimization approaches were so far mainly restricted to studies of land and resource management under constant climatic conditions. In this study, we bridge this gap and exploit the benefits of multi-objective regional optimization for identifying optimum land management adaptations to climate change. We design a multi-objective optimization routine that integrates a generic crop model and considers two climate scenarios for 2050 in a meso-scale catchment on the Swiss Central Plateau with already limited water resources. The results indicate that adaptation will be necessary in the study area to cope with a decrease in productivity by 0–10 %, an increase in soil loss by 25–35 %, and an increase in N-leaching by 30–45 %. Adaptation options identified here exhibit conflicts between productivity and environmental goals, but compromises are possible. Necessary management changes include (i) adjustments of crop shares, i.e. increasing the proportion of early harvested winter cereals at the expense of irrigated spring crops, (ii) widespread use of reduced tillage, (iii) allocation of irrigated areas to soils with low water-retention capacity at lower elevations, and (iv) conversion of some pre-alpine grasslands to croplands.

Influence of experimental soil disturbances on the diversity of plants in agricultural grasslands

Aims and Methods Disturbance is supposed to play an important role for biodiversity and ecosystem stability as described by the intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH), which predicts highest species richness at intermediate levels of disturbances. In this study, we tested the effects of artificial soil disturbances on diversity of annual and perennial vascular plants and bryophytes in a field experiment in 86 agricultural grasslands differing in land use in two regions of Germany. On each grassland, we implemented four treatments: three treatments differing in application time of soil disturbances and one control. One year after experimental disturbance, we recorded vegetation and measured biomass productivity and bare ground. We analysed the disturbance response taking effects of region and land-use-accompanied disturbance regimes into account.Important Findings Region and land-use type strongly determined plant species richness. Experimental disturbances had small positive effects on the species richness of annuals, but none on perennials or bryophytes. Bare ground was positively related to species richness of bryophytes. However, exceeding the creation of 12% bare ground further disturbance had a detrimental effect on bryophyte species richness, which corresponds to the IDH. As biomass productivity was unaffected by disturbance our results indicate that the disturbance effect on species richness of annuals was not due to decreased overall productivity, but rather due to short-term lowered inter- and intraspecific competition at the newly created microsites.Generally, our results highlight the importance of soil disturbances for species richness of annual plants and bryophytes in agricultural grasslands. However, most grasslands were disturbed naturally or by land-use practices and our additional experimental soil disturbances only had a small short-term effect. Overall, total plant diversity in grasslands seemed to be more limited by the availability of propagules rather than by suitable microsites for germination. Thus, nature conservation efforts to increase grassland diversity should focus on overcoming propagule limitation, for instance by additional sowing of seeds, while the creation of additional open patches by disturbance might only be appropriate where natural disturbances are scarce.