Global biomass burning: a synthesis and review of Holocene paleofire records and their controls

We synthesize existing sedimentary charcoal records to reconstruct Holocene fire history at regional, continental and global scales. The reconstructions are compared with the two potential controls of burning at these broad scales – changes in climate and human activities – to assess their relative importance on trends in biomass burning. Here we consider several hypotheses that have been advanced to explain the Holocene record of fire, including climate, human activities and synergies between the two. Our results suggest that 1) episodes of high fire activity were relatively common in the early Holocene and were consistent with climate changes despite low global temperatures and low levels of biomass burning globally; 2) there is little evidence from the paleofire record to support the Early Anthropocene Hypothesis of human modification of the global carbon cycle; 3) there was a nearly-global increase in fire activity from 3 to 2 ka that is difficult to explain with either climate or humans, but the widespread and synchronous nature of the increase suggests at least a partial climate forcing; and 4) burning during the past century generally decreased but was spatially variable; it declined sharply in many areas, but there were also large increases (e.g., Australia and parts of Europe). Our analysis does not exclude an important role for human activities on global biomass burning during the Holocene, but instead provides evidence for a pervasive influence of climate across multiple spatial and temporal scales.

Incident malignancies among older long-term breast cancer survivors and an age-matched and site-matched nonbreast cancer comparison group over 10 years of follow-up

BACKGROUND Of the approximately 2.4 million American women with a history of breast cancer, 43% are aged ≥ 65 years and are at risk for developing subsequent malignancies. METHODS Women from 6 geographically diverse sites included 5-year breast cancer survivors (N = 1361) who were diagnosed between 1990 and 1994 at age ≥ 65 years with stage I or II disease and a comparison group of women without breast cancer (N = 1361). Women in the comparison group were age-matched and site-matched to breast cancer survivors on the date of breast cancer diagnosis. Follow-up began 5 years after the index date (survivor diagnosis date or comparison enrollment date) until death, disenrollment, or through 15 years after the index date. Data were collected from medical records and electronic sources (cancer registry, administrative, clinical, National Death Index). Analyses included descriptive statistics, crude incidence rates, and Cox proportional hazards regression models for estimating the risk of incident malignancy and were adjusted for death as a competing risk. RESULTS Survivors and women in the comparison group were similar: >82% were white, 55% had a Charlson Comorbidity Index of 0, and ≥ 73% had a body mass index ≤ 30 kg/m(2) . Of all 306 women (N = 160 in the survivor group, N = 146 in the comparison group) who developed a first incident malignancy during follow-up, the mean time to malignancy was similar (4.37 ± 2.81 years vs 4.03 ± 2.76 years, respectively; P = .28), whereas unadjusted incidence rates were slightly higher in survivors (1882 vs 1620 per 100,000 person years). The adjusted hazard of developing a first incident malignancy was slightly elevated in survivors in relation to women in the comparison group, but it was not statistically significant (hazard ratio, 1.17; 95% confidence interval, 0.94-1.47). CONCLUSIONS Older women who survived 5 years after an early stage breast cancer diagnosis were not at an elevated risk for developing subsequent incident malignancies up to 15 years after their breast cancer diagnosis.

High-resolution mineral dust and sea ice proxy records from the Talos Dome ice core

In this study we report on new non-sea salt calcium (nssCa2+, mineral dust proxy) and sea salt sodium (ssNa+, sea ice proxy) records along the East Antarctic Talos Dome deep ice core in centennial resolution reaching back 150 thousand years (ka) before present. During glacial conditions nssCa2+ fluxes in Talos Dome are strongly related to temperature as has been observed before in other deep Antarctic ice core records, and has been associated with synchronous changes in the main source region (southern South America) during climate variations in the last glacial. However, during warmer climate conditions Talos Dome mineral dust input is clearly elevated compared to other records mainly due to the contribution of additional local dust sources in the Ross Sea area. Based on a simple transport model, we compare nssCa2+ fluxes of different East Antarctic ice cores. From this multi-site comparison we conclude that changes in transport efficiency or atmospheric lifetime of dust particles do have a minor effect compared to source strength changes on the large-scale concentration changes observed in Antarctic ice cores during climate variations of the past 150 ka. Our transport model applied on ice core data is further validated by climate model data. The availability of multiple East Antarctic nssCa2+ records also allows for a revision of a former estimate on the atmospheric CO2 sensitivity to reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene (T1). While a former estimate based on the EPICA Dome C (EDC) record only suggested 20 ppm, we find that reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean may be responsible for up to 40 ppm of the total atmospheric CO2 increase during T1. During the last interglacial, ssNa+ levels of EDC and EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) are only half of the Holocene levels, in line with higher temperatures during that period, indicating much reduced sea ice extent in the Atlantic as well as the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean. In contrast, Holocene ssNa+ flux in Talos Dome is about the same as during the last interglacial, indicating that there was similar ice cover present in the Ross Sea area during MIS 5.5 as during the Holocene.

Regulation and the Management of Expectations - Rating Agencies Revisited

In the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, scholars have begun to revise their conceptions of how market participants interact. While the traditional “rationalist optic” posits market participants who are able to process decisionrelevant information and thereby transform uncertainty into quantifiable risks, the increasingly popular “sociological optic” stresses the role of uncertainty in expectation formation and social conventions for creating confidence in markets. Applications of the sociological optic to concrete regulatory problems are still limited. By subjecting both optics to the same regulatory problem—the role of credit rating agencies (CRAs) and their ratings in capital markets—this paper provides insights into whether the sociological optic offers advice to tackle concrete regulatory problems and discusses the potential of the sociological optic in complementing the rationalist optic. The empirical application suggests that the sociological optic is not only able to improve our understanding of the role of CRAs and their ratings, but also to provide solutions complementary to those posited by the rationalist optic.

Aligning and synchronization of MIS5 proxy records from Lake Ohrid (FYROM) with independently dated Mediterranean archives: implications for DEEP core chronology

The DEEP site sediment sequence obtained during the ICDP SCOPSCO project at Lake Ohrid was dated using tephrostratigraphic information, cyclostratigraphy, and orbital tuning through the marine isotope stages (MIS) 15-1. Although this approach is suitable for the generation of a general chronological framework of the long succession, it is insufficient to resolve more detailed palaeoclimatological questions, such as leads and lags of climate events between marine and terrestrial records or between different regions. Here, we demonstrate how the use of different tie points can affect cyclostratigraphy and orbital tuning for the period between ca. 140 and 70 ka and how the results can be correlated with directly/indirectly radiometrically dated Mediterranean marine and continental proxy records. The alternative age model presented here shows consistent differences with that initially proposed by Francke et al. (2015) for the same interval, in particular at the level of the MIS6-5e transition. According to this new age model, different proxies from the DEEP site sediment record support an increase of temperatures between glacial to interglacial conditions, which is almost synchronous with a rapid increase in sea surface temperature observed in the western Mediterranean. The results show how a detailed study of independent chronological tie points is important to align different records and to highlight asynchronisms of climate events. Moreover, Francke et al. (2016) have incorporated the new chronology proposed for tephra OH-DP-0499 in the final DEEP age model. This has reduced substantially the chronological discrepancies between the DEEP site age model and the model proposed here for the last glacial-interglacial transition.

Corpus callosum index and long-term disability in multiple sclerosis patients

Prediction of long-term disability in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) is essential. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measurement of brain volume may be of predictive value but sophisticated MRI techniques are often inaccessible in clinical practice. The corpus callosum index (CCI) is a normalized measurement that reflects changes of brain volume. We investigated medical records and 533 MRI scans at diagnosis and during clinical follow-up of 169 MS patients (mean age 42 +/- 11 years, 86% relapsing-remitting MS, time since first relapse 11 +/- 9 years). CCI at diagnosis was 0.345 +/- 0.04 and correlated with duration of disease (p = 0.002; r = -0.234) and expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score at diagnosis (r = -0.428; p < 0.001). Linear regression analyses identified age, duration of disease, relapse rate and EDSS at diagnosis as independent predictors for disability after mean of 7.1 years (Nagelkerkes' R:0.56). Annual CCI decrease was 0.01 +/- 0.02 (annual tissue loss: 1.3%). In secondary progressive MS patients, CCI decrease was double compared to that in relapsing-remitting MS patients (p = 0.04). There was a trend of greater CCI decrease in untreated patients compared to those who received disease modifying drugs (p = 0.2). CCI is an easy to use MRI marker for estimating brain atrophy in patients with MS. Brain atrophy as measured with CCI was associated with disability progression but it was not an independent predictor of long-term disability.

Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January-April climate over the past half millennium: results and insights from instrumental data, documentary evidence and coupled climate models

We use long instrumental temperature series together with available field reconstructions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and three-dimensional climate model simulations to analyze relations between temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation patterns over much of Europe and the Mediterranean for the late winter/early spring (January–April, JFMA) season. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) investigates interannual to interdecadal covariability between a new gridded SLP field reconstruction and seven long instrumental temperature series covering the past 250 years. We then present and discuss prominent atmospheric circulation patterns related to anomalous warm and cold JFMA conditions within different European areas spanning the period 1760–2007. Next, using a data assimilation technique, we link gridded SLP data with a climate model (EC-Bilt-Clio) for a better dynamical understanding of the relationship between large scale circulation and European climate. We thus present an alternative approach to reconstruct climate for the pre-instrumental period based on the assimilated model simulations. Furthermore, we present an independent method to extend the dynamic circulation analysis for anomalously cold European JFMA conditions back to the sixteenth century. To this end, we use documentary records that are spatially representative for the long instrumental records and derive, through modern analogs, large-scale SLP, surface temperature and precipitation fields. The skill of the analog method is tested in the virtual world of two three-dimensional climate simulations (ECHO-G and HadCM3). This endeavor offers new possibilities to both constrain climate model into a reconstruction mode (through the assimilation approach) and to better asses documentary data in a quantitative way.

Learning from failure--rationale and design for a study about discontinuation of randomized trials (DISCO study)

Background Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) may be discontinued because of apparent harm, benefit, or futility. Other RCTs are discontinued early because of insufficient recruitment. Trial discontinuation has ethical implications, because participants consent on the premise of contributing to new medical knowledge, Research Ethics Committees (RECs) spend considerable effort reviewing study protocols, and limited resources for conducting research are wasted. Currently, little is known regarding the frequency and characteristics of discontinued RCTs. Methods/Design Our aims are, first, to determine the prevalence of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons; second, to determine whether the risk of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons differs between investigator- and industry-initiated RCTs; third, to identify risk factors for RCT discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment; fourth, to determine at what stage RCTs are discontinued; and fifth, to examine the publication history of discontinued RCTs. We are currently assembling a multicenter cohort of RCTs based on protocols approved between 2000 and 2002/3 by 6 RECs in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. We are extracting data on RCT characteristics and planned recruitment for all included protocols. Completion and publication status is determined using information from correspondence between investigators and RECs, publications identified through literature searches, or by contacting the investigators. We will use multivariable regression models to identify risk factors for trial discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment. We aim to include over 1000 RCTs of which an anticipated 150 will have been discontinued due to insufficient recruitment. Discussion Our study will provide insights into the prevalence and characteristics of RCTs that were discontinued. Effective recruitment strategies and the anticipation of problems are key issues in the planning and evaluation of trials by investigators, Clinical Trial Units, RECs and funding agencies. Identification and modification of barriers to successful study completion at an early stage could help to reduce the risk of trial discontinuation, save limited resources, and enable RCTs to better meet their ethical requirements.

Trampoline related injuries in children: risk factors and radiographic findings

Background Backyard trampolines are immensely popular among children, but are associated with an increase of trampoline-related injuries. The aim of this study was to evaluate radiographs of children with trampoline related injuries and to determine the risk factors. Methods Between 2003 and 2009, 286 children under the age of 16 with backyard trampoline injuries were included in the study. The number of injuries increased from 13 patients in 2003 to 86 in 2009. The median age of the 286 patients was 7 years (range: 1–15 years). Totally 140 (49%) patients were males, and 146 (51%) females. Medical records and all available diagnostic imaging were reviewed. A questionnaire was sent to the parents to evaluate the circumstances of each injury, the type of trampoline, the protection equipment and the experience of the children using the trampoline. The study was approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee of the University Hospital of Bern. Results The questionnaires and radiographs of the 104 patients were available for evaluation. A fracture was sustained in 51 of the 104 patients. More than 75% of all patients sustaining injuries and in 90% of patients with fractures were jumping on the trampoline with other children at the time of the accident. The most common fractures were supracondylar humeral fractures (29%) and forearm fractures (25%). Fractures of the proximal tibia occurred especially in younger children between 2–5 years of age. Conclusions Children younger than 5 years old are at risk for specific proximal tibia fractures (“Trampoline Fracture”). A child jumping simultaneously with other children has a higher risk of suffering from a fracture.

Detection of hepatic portal venous gas: its clinical impact and outcome

The clinical impact and outcome of a rare radiographic finding of hepatic portal venous gas (HPVG) as well as the effectiveness of computed tomography (CT), CT scanogram, and conventional radiography in the detection of HPVG were retrospectively analyzed. CT scans, CT scanogram, and plain film radiographs of 11 patients with HPVG were reviewed and compared with their medical records and surgical and pathology reports. Eight of the 11 patients underwent plain film radiographs 1 day before or after the CT scan. HPVG was detected at CT in all 11 patients, on CT scanogram in three (3 of 11, 27.3%), and on plain films in one (one of eight, 12.5%). In nine of 11 patients (81.8%), CT revealed an associated pneumatosis intestinalis. In six of the 11 patients (54.6%), acute mesenteric ischemia was the underlying disease for HPVG. Seven patients (63.6%) underwent emergency exploratory laparotomy. The mortality rate for HPVG alone was 27.3% (3 of 11) and for HPVG related to mesenteric bowel disease 50% (three of six). Acute mesenteric ischemia is the most common cause of HPVG, which continues to have a predictably higher mortality. CT is superior to CT scanograms and radiographs in the detection of HPVG and its underlying diseases and, therefore, should be used as the primary diagnostic tool.