Water-use efficiency and transpiration across European forests during the Anthropocene

The Earth’s carbon and hydrologic cycles are intimately coupled by gas exchange through plant stomata1, 2, 3. However, uncertainties in the magnitude4, 5, 6 and consequences7, 8 of the physiological responses9, 10 of plants to elevated CO2 in natural environments hinders modelling of terrestrial water cycling and carbon storage11. Here we use annually resolved long-term δ13C tree-ring measurements across a European forest network to reconstruct the physiologically driven response of intercellular CO2 (Ci) caused by atmospheric CO2 (Ca) trends. When removing meteorological signals from the δ13C measurements, we find that trees across Europe regulated gas exchange so that for one ppmv atmospheric CO2 increase, Ci increased by ~0.76 ppmv, most consistent with moderate control towards a constant Ci/Ca ratio. This response corresponds to twentieth-century intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) increases of 14 ± 10 and 22 ± 6% at broadleaf and coniferous sites, respectively. An ensemble of process-based global vegetation models shows similar CO2 effects on iWUE trends. Yet, when operating these models with climate drivers reintroduced, despite decreased stomatal opening, 5% increases in European forest transpiration are calculated over the twentieth century. This counterintuitive result arises from lengthened growing seasons, enhanced evaporative demand in a warming climate, and increased leaf area, which together oppose effects of CO2-induced stomatal closure. Our study questions changes to the hydrological cycle, such as reductions in transpiration and air humidity, hypothesized to result from plant responses to anthropogenic emissions.

Global biomass burning: a synthesis and review of Holocene paleofire records and their controls

We synthesize existing sedimentary charcoal records to reconstruct Holocene fire history at regional, continental and global scales. The reconstructions are compared with the two potential controls of burning at these broad scales – changes in climate and human activities – to assess their relative importance on trends in biomass burning. Here we consider several hypotheses that have been advanced to explain the Holocene record of fire, including climate, human activities and synergies between the two. Our results suggest that 1) episodes of high fire activity were relatively common in the early Holocene and were consistent with climate changes despite low global temperatures and low levels of biomass burning globally; 2) there is little evidence from the paleofire record to support the Early Anthropocene Hypothesis of human modification of the global carbon cycle; 3) there was a nearly-global increase in fire activity from 3 to 2 ka that is difficult to explain with either climate or humans, but the widespread and synchronous nature of the increase suggests at least a partial climate forcing; and 4) burning during the past century generally decreased but was spatially variable; it declined sharply in many areas, but there were also large increases (e.g., Australia and parts of Europe). Our analysis does not exclude an important role for human activities on global biomass burning during the Holocene, but instead provides evidence for a pervasive influence of climate across multiple spatial and temporal scales.

Recent trends in Inner Asian forest dynamics to temperature and precipitation indicate high sensitivity to climate change

Semi-arid ecosystems play an important role in regulating global climate with the fate of these ecosystems in the Anthropocene depending upon interactions among temperature, precipitation, and CO2. However, in cool-arid environments, precipitation is not the only limitation to forest productivity. Interactions between changes in precipitation and air temperature may enhance soil moisture stress while simultaneously extending growing season length, with unclear consequences for net carbon uptake. This study evaluates recent trends in productivity and phenology of Inner Asian forests (in Mongolia and Northern China) using satellite remote sensing, dendrochronology, and dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations to quantify the sensitivity of forest dynamics to decadal climate variability and trends. Trends in photosynthetically active radiation fraction (FPAR) between 1982 and 2010 show a greening of about 7% of the region in spring (March, April, May), and 3% of the area ‘browning’ during summertime (June, July, August). These satellite observations of FPAR are corroborated by trends in NPP simulated by the LPJ DGVM. Spring greening trends in FPAR are mainly explained by long-term trends in precipitation whereas summer browning trends are correlated with decreasing precipitation. Tree ring data from 25 sites confirm annual growth increments are mainly limited by summer precipitation (June, July, August) in Mongolia, and spring precipitation in northern China (March, April, May), with relatively weak prior-year lag effects. An ensemble of climate projections from the IPCC CMIP3 models indicates that warming temperatures (spring, summer) are expected to be associated with higher summer precipitation, which combined with CO2 causes large increases in NPP and possibly even greater forest cover in the Mongolian steppe. In the absence of a strong direct CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth (e.g., due to nutrient limitation), water stress or decreased carbon gain from higher autotrophic respiration results in decreased productivity and loss of forest cover. The fate of these semi-arid ecosystems thus appears to hinge upon the magnitude and subtleties of CO2 fertilization effects, for which experimental observations in arid systems are needed to test and refine vegetation models.

Ecosystem impacts of feral rabbits on World Heritage sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island: A palaeoecological perspective

The introduction and establishment of non-indigenous species through human activities often poses a major threat to natural biodiversity. In many parts of the world management efforts are therefore focused on their eradication. The environment of World Heritage sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island has been severely damaged by non-indigenous species including rabbits, rats and mice, introduced from the late AD 1800s. An extensive eradication programme is now underway which aims to remove all rabbits and rodents. To provide a long-term context for assessing the Island's pre-invasion state, invasion impacts, and to provide a baseline for monitoring its recovery, we undertook a palaeoecological study using proxies in a lake sediment core. Sedimentological and diatom analyses revealed an unproductive catchment and lake environment persisted for ca. 7100 years prior to the introduction of the invasive species. After ca. AD 1898, unprecedented and statistically significant environmental changes occurred. Lake sediment accumulation rates increased >100 times due to enhanced catchment inputs and within-lake production. Total carbon and total nitrogen contents of the sediments increased by a factor of four. The diatom flora became dominated by two previously rare species. The results strongly suggest a causal link between the anthropogenic introduction of rabbits and the changes identified in the lake sediments. This study provides an example of how palaeoecology may be used to determine baseline conditions prior to the introduction of non-indigenous species, quantify the timing and extent of changes, and help monitor the recovery of the ecosystem and natural biodiversity following successful non-indigenous species eradication programmes.

Land system science and sustainable development of the earth system: A global land project perspective

Land systems are the result of human interactions with the natural environment. Understanding the drivers, state, trends and impacts of different land systems on social and natural processes helps to reveal how changes in the land system affect the functioning of the socio-ecological system as a whole and the tradeoff these changes may represent. The Global Land Project has led advances by synthesizing land systems research across different scales and providing concepts to further understand the feedbacks between social-and environmental systems, between urban and rural environments and between distant world regions. Land system science has moved from a focus on observation of change and understanding the drivers of these changes to a focus on using this understanding to design sustainable transformations through stakeholder engagement and through the concept of land governance. As land use can be seen as the largest geo-engineering project in which mankind has engaged, land system science can act as a platform for integration of insights from different disciplines and for translation of knowledge into action.