Non-AIDS defining cancers in the D:A:D Study - time trends and predictors of survival: a cohort study

Background Non-AIDS defining cancers (NADC) are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive individuals. Using data from a large international cohort of HIV-positive individuals, we described the incidence of NADC from 2004–2010, and described subsequent mortality and predictors of these. Methods Individuals were followed from 1st January 2004/enrolment in study, until the earliest of a new NADC, 1st February 2010, death or six months after the patient’s last visit. Incidence rates were estimated for each year of follow-up, overall and stratified by gender, age and mode of HIV acquisition. Cumulative risk of mortality following NADC diagnosis was summarised using Kaplan-Meier methods, with follow-up for these analyses from the date of NADC diagnosis until the patient’s death, 1st February 2010 or 6 months after the patient’s last visit. Factors associated with mortality following NADC diagnosis were identified using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Results Over 176,775 person-years (PY), 880 (2.1%) patients developed a new NADC (incidence: 4.98/1000PY [95% confidence interval 4.65, 5.31]). Over a third of these patients (327, 37.2%) had died by 1st February 2010. Time trends for lung cancer, anal cancer and Hodgkin’s lymphoma were broadly consistent. Kaplan-Meier cumulative mortality estimates at 1, 3 and 5 years after NADC diagnosis were 28.2% [95% CI 25.1-31.2], 42.0% [38.2-45.8] and 47.3% [42.4-52.2], respectively. Significant predictors of poorer survival after diagnosis of NADC were lung cancer (compared to other cancer types), male gender, non-white ethnicity, and smoking status. Later year of diagnosis and higher CD4 count at NADC diagnosis were associated with improved survival. The incidence of NADC remained stable over the period 2004–2010 in this large observational cohort. Conclusions The prognosis after diagnosis of NADC, in particular lung cancer and disseminated cancer, is poor but has improved somewhat over time. Modifiable risk factors, such as smoking and low CD4 counts, were associated with mortality following a diagnosis of NADC.

Gender differences in survival among adult patients starting antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a multicentre cohort study

Background Increased mortality among men on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been documented but remains poorly understood. We examined the magnitude of and risk factors for gender differences in mortality on ART. Methods and Findings Analyses included 46,201 ART-naïve adults starting ART between January 2002 and December 2009 in eight ART programmes across South Africa (SA). Patients were followed from initiation of ART to outcome or analysis closure. The primary outcome was mortality; secondary outcomes were loss to follow-up (LTF), virologic suppression, and CD4+ cell count responses. Survival analyses were used to examine the hazard of death on ART by gender. Sensitivity analyses were limited to patients who were virologically suppressed and patients whose CD4+ cell count reached >200 cells/µl. We compared gender differences in mortality among HIV+ patients on ART with mortality in an age-standardised HIV-negative population. Among 46,201 adults (65% female, median age 35 years), during 77,578 person-years of follow-up, men had lower median CD4+ cell counts than women (85 versus 110 cells/µl, p<0.001), were more likely to be classified WHO stage III/IV (86 versus 77%, p<0.001), and had higher mortality in crude (8.5 versus 5.7 deaths/100 person-years, p<0.001) and adjusted analyses (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 1.31, 95% CI 1.22–1.41). After 36 months on ART, men were more likely than women to be truly LTF (AHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12–1.28) but not to die after LTF (AHR 1.04, 95% CI 0.86–1.25). Findings were consistent across all eight programmes. Virologic suppression was similar by gender; women had slightly better immunologic responses than men. Notably, the observed gender differences in mortality on ART were smaller than gender differences in age-standardised death rates in the HIV-negative South African population. Over time, non-HIV mortality appeared to account for an increasing proportion of observed mortality. The analysis was limited by missing data on baseline HIV disease characteristics, and we did not observe directly mortality in HIV-negative populations where the participating cohorts were located. Conclusions HIV-infected men have higher mortality on ART than women in South African programmes, but these differences are only partly explained by more advanced HIV disease at the time of ART initiation, differential LTF and subsequent mortality, and differences in responses to treatment. The observed differences in mortality on ART may be best explained by background differences in mortality between men and women in the South African population unrelated to the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

Treatment and prognosis of AIDS-related lymphoma in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy: findings from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the characteristics of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) administered concomitantly with chemotherapy and to establish prognostic determinants of patients with AIDS-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. METHODS: The study included 91 patients with AIDS-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study enrolled between January 1997 and October 2003, excluding lymphomas of the brain. We extracted AIDS-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma- and HIV-specific variables at the time of lymphoma diagnosis as well as treatment changes over time from charts and from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study database. Cox regression analyses were performed to study predictors of overall and progression-free survival. RESULTS: During a median follow up of 1.6 years, 57 patients died or progressed. Thirty-five patients stopped chemotherapy prematurely (before the sixth cycle) usually due to disease progression; these patients had a shorter median survival than those who completed six or more cycles (14 versus 28 months). Interruptions of cART decreased from 35% before chemotherapy to 5% during chemotherapy. Factors associated with overall survival were CD4+ T-cell count (<100 cells/microl) (hazard ratio [HR] 2.95 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.53-5.67], hepatitis C seropositivity (HR 2.39 [95% CI 1.01-5.67]), the international prognostic index score (HR 1.98-3.62 across categories) and Burkitt histological subtypes (HR 2.56 [95% CI 1.13-5.78]). CONCLUSIONS: Interruptions of cART were usually not induced by chemotherapy. The effect of cART interruptions on AIDS-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma prognosis remains unclear, however, hepatitis C seropositivity emerged-as a predictor of death beyond the well-known international prognostic index score and CD4+ T-cell count.

Higher frequency of genetic variants conferring increased risk for ADRs for commonly used drugs treating cancer, AIDS and tuberculosis in persons of African descent

There is established clinical evidence for differences in drug response, cure rates and survival outcomes between different ethnic populations, but the causes are poorly understood. Differences in frequencies of functional genetic variants in key drug response and metabolism genes may significantly influence drug response differences in different populations. To assess this, we genotyped 1330 individuals of African (n=372) and European (n=958) descent for 4535 single-nucleotide polymorphisms in 350 key drug absorption, distribution, metabolism, elimination and toxicity genes. Important and remarkable differences in the distribution of genetic variants were observed between Africans and Europeans and among the African populations. These could translate into significant differences in drug efficacy and safety profiles, and also in the required dose to achieve the desired therapeutic effect in different populations. Our data points to the need for population-specific genetic variation in personalizing medicine and care.

Pitfalls of practicing cancer epidemiology in resource-limited settings: the case of survival and loss to follow-up after a diagnosis of Kaposi's sarcoma in five countries across sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND Survival after diagnosis is a fundamental concern in cancer epidemiology. In resource-rich settings, ambient clinical databases, municipal data and cancer registries make survival estimation in real-world populations relatively straightforward. In resource-poor settings, given the deficiencies in a variety of health-related data systems, it is less clear how well we can determine cancer survival from ambient data. METHODS We addressed this issue in sub-Saharan Africa for Kaposi's sarcoma (KS), a cancer for which incidence has exploded with the HIV epidemic but for which survival in the region may be changing with the recent advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART). From 33 primary care HIV Clinics in Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Nigeria and Cameroon participating in the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) Consortia in 2009-2012, we identified 1328 adults with newly diagnosed KS. Patients were evaluated from KS diagnosis until death, transfer to another facility or database closure. RESULTS Nominally, 22% of patients were estimated to be dead by 2 years, but this estimate was clouded by 45% cumulative lost to follow-up with unknown vital status by 2 years. After adjustment for site and CD4 count, age <30 years and male sex were independently associated with becoming lost. CONCLUSIONS In this community-based sample of patients diagnosed with KS in sub-Saharan Africa, almost half became lost to follow-up by 2 years. This precluded accurate estimation of survival. Until we either generally strengthen data systems or implement cancer-specific enhancements (e.g., tracking of the lost) in the region, insights from cancer epidemiology will be limited.