Last stop expulsion - The minority question and forced migration in East-Central Europe: 1918-49

This article deals with the European minorities in the period between the two world wars and with their final expulsion from nation-states at the end of World War II. First, the tensions which arose between the organised minorities and the successor states of the Habsburg Monarchy are accounted for primarily by the argument that the various minorities located within the successor states had already undergone a comprehensive processes of nationalisation within the Habsburg Empire. Therefore they were able to resist assimilation by the political elites of the new titular nations (Czechs, Poles, Rumanians, Serbs). A second topic is that of the use made of the minorities issue by Adolf Hitler to help achieve his expansionist aims. The minorities issue was central to the international destabilisation of interwar Europe. Finally, the mass expulsion of minorities (above all, Germans) after the end of the war is explained by strategic considerations on the part of the Allied powers as well as involving the nation-state regimes. It is argued, against a commonly held view, that German atrocities during the period of occupation had little to do with the decision to expel most ethnic Germans from their territories of settlement in Poland, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. The article shows that it is necessary to treat national minorities in the first half of the twentieth century as a single phenomenon which shares similar features across the various nation-states of East-Central Europe.

A 49 year hindcast of surface winds over the Iberian Peninsula

The use of hindcast climatic data is quite extended for multiple applications. However, this approach needs the support of a validation process to allow its drawbacks and, therefore, confidence levels to be assessed. In this work, the strategy relies on an hourly wind database resulting from a dynamical downscaling experiment, with a spatial resolution of 10 km, covering the Iberian Peninsula (IP), driven by the ERA40 reanalysis (1959–2001) extended by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) analysis (2002–2007) and comprising two main steps. Initially, the skill of the simulation is evaluated comparing the quality-tested observational database (Lorente-Plazas et al., 2014) at local and regional scales. The results show that the model is able to portray the main features of the wind over the IP: annual cycles, wind roses, spatial and temporal variability, as well as the response to different circulation types. In addition, there is a significant added value of the simulation with respect to driving conditions, especially in regions with a complex orography. However, some problems are evident, the major drawback being the systematic overestimation of the wind speed, which is mainly attributed to a missrepresentation of frictional forces. The model skill is also lower along the Mediterranean coast and for the Pyrenees. In a second phase, the high spatio-temporal resolution of the pseudo-real wind database is used to explore the limitations of the observational database. It is shown that missing values do not affect the characterisation of the wind climate over the IP, while the length of the observational period (6 years) is sufficient for most regions, with only a few exceptions. The spatial distribution of the observational sampling schemes should be enhanced to improve the correct assessment of all IP wind regimes, particularly in some mountainous areas.