Habitat-specific demography and source-sink dynamics in a population of Siberian jays

P>1. There are a number of models describing population structure, many of which have the capacity to incorporate spatial habitat effects. One such model is the source-sink model, that describes a system where some habitats have a natality that is higher than mortality (source) and others have a mortality that exceeds natality (sink). A source can be maintained in the absence of migration, whereas a sink will go extinct. 2. However, the interaction between population dynamics and habitat quality is complex, and concerns have been raised about the validity of published empirical studies addressing source-sink dynamics. In particular, some of these studies fail to provide data on survival, a significant component in disentangling a sink from a low quality source. Moreover, failing to account for a density-dependent increase in mortality, or decrease in fecundity, can result in a territory being falsely assigned as a sink, when in fact, this density-dependent suppression only decreases the population size to a lower level, hence indicating a 'pseudo-sink'. 3. In this study, we investigate a long-term data set for key components of territory-specific demography (mortality and reproduction) and their relationship to habitat characteristics in the territorial, group-living Siberian jay (Perisoreus infaustus). We also assess territory-specific population growth rates (r), to test whether spatial population dynamics are consistent with the ideas of source-sink dynamics. 4. Although average mortality did not differ between sexes, habitat-specific mortality did. Female mortality was higher in older forests, a pattern not observed in males. Male mortality only increased with an increasing amount of open areas. Moreover, reproductive success was higher further away from human settlement, indicating a strong effect of human-associated nest predators. 5. Averaged over all years, 76% of the territories were sources. These territories generally consisted of less open areas, and were located further away from human settlement. 6. The source-sink model provides a tool for modelling demography in distinct habitat patches of different quality, which can aid in identifying key habitats within the landscape, and thus, reduce the risk of implementing unsound management decisions.

Evolutionary demography of long-lived monocarpic perennials: a time-lagged integral projection model

1. The evolution of flowering strategies (when and at what size to flower) in monocarpic perennials is determined by balancing current reproduction with expected future reproduction, and these are largely determined by size-specific patterns of growth and survival. However, because of the difficulty in following long-lived individuals throughout their lives, this theory has largely been tested using short-lived species (< 5 years). 2. Here, we tested this theory using the long-lived monocarpic perennial Campanula thyrsoides which can live up to 16 years. We used a novel approach that combined permanent plot and herb chronology data from a 3-year field study to parameterize and validate integral projection models (IPMs). 3. Similar to other monocarpic species, the rosette leaves of C. thyrsoides wither over winter and so size cannot be measured in the year of flowering. We therefore extended the existing IPM framework to incorporate an additional time delay that arises because flowering demography must be predicted from rosette size in the year before flowering. 4. We found that all main demographic functions (growth, survival probability, flowering probability and fecundity) were strongly size-dependent and there was a pronounced threshold size of flowering. There was good agreement between the predicted distribution of flowering ages obtained from the IPMs and that estimated in the field. Mostly, there was good agreement between the IPM predictions and the direct quantitative field measurements regarding the demographic parameters lambda, R-0 and T. We therefore conclude that the model captures the main demographic features of the field populations. 5. Elasticity analysis indicated that changes in the survival and growth function had the largest effect (c. 80%) on lambda and this was considerably larger than in short-lived monocarps. We found only weak selection pressure operating on the observed flowering strategy which was close to the predicted evolutionary stable strategy. 6. Synthesis. The extended IPM accurately described the demography of a long-lived monocarpic perennial using data collected over a relatively short period. We could show that the evolution of flowering strategies in short- and long-lived monocarps seem to follow the same general rules but with a longevity-related emphasis on survival over fecundity.

Who Counts? Demography of Swidden Cultivators in Southeast Asia

Swidden cultivators are often found as a distinct category of farmers in the literature, but rarely appear in population censuses or other national and regional classifications. This has led to a worldwide confusion on how many people are dependent on this form of agriculture. The most often cited number of 200–300 million dates back to the early 1970s, but the source is obscure. We assess available, published data from nine countries in Southeast Asia and conclude that on this basis it is not possible to provide a firm estimate of the number of swidden cultivators in the region. A conservative range of 14–34 million people engaged in swidden cultivation in the region is suggested, however. We argue that along with improved knowledge of swidden livelihoods, there is an urgent need to develop techniques that will allow for better estimates of swidden populations in order to secure appropriate rural development and poverty reduction in swidden areas.

Genomic Data Reveal a Complex Making of Humans

In the last few years, two paradigms underlying human evolution have crumbled. Modern humans have not totally replaced previous hominins without any admixture, and the expected signatures of adaptations to new environments are surprisingly lacking at the genomic level. Here we review current evidence about archaic admixture and lack of strong selective sweeps in humans. We underline the need to properly model differential admixture in various populations to correctly reconstruct past demography. We also stress the importance of taking into account the spatial dimension of human evolution, which proceeded by a series of range expansions that could have promoted both the introgression of archaic genes and background selection.

Statistical evaluation of alternative models of human evolution

An appropriate model of recent human evolution is not only important to understand our own history, but it is necessary to disentangle the effects of demography and selection on genome diversity. Although most genetic data support the view that our species originated recently in Africa, it is still unclear if it completely replaced former members of the Homo genus, or if some interbreeding occurred during its range expansion. Several scenarios of modern human evolution have been proposed on the basis of molecular and paleontological data, but their likelihood has never been statistically assessed. Using DNA data from 50 nuclear loci sequenced in African, Asian and Native American samples, we show here by extensive simulations that a simple African replacement model with exponential growth has a higher probability (78%) as compared with alternative multiregional evolution or assimilation scenarios. A Bayesian analysis of the data under this best supported model points to an origin of our species approximately 141 thousand years ago (Kya), an exit out-of-Africa approximately 51 Kya, and a recent colonization of the Americas approximately 10.5 Kya. We also find that the African replacement model explains not only the shallow ancestry of mtDNA or Y-chromosomes but also the occurrence of deep lineages at some autosomal loci, which has been formerly interpreted as a sign of interbreeding with Homo erectus.

Fine-scale genetic structure and dispersal in the common vole (Microtus arvalis)

The genetic structure and demography of local populations is tightly linked to the rate and scale of dispersal. Dispersal parameters are notoriously difficult to determine in the field, and remain often completely unknown for smaller organisms. In this study, we investigate spatial and temporal genetic structure in relation to dispersal patterns among local populations of the probably most abundant European mammals, the common vole (Microtus arvalis). Voles were studied in six natural populations at distances of 0.4-2.5 km in three different seasons (fall, spring, summer) corresponding to different life-history stages. Field observations provided no direct evidence for movements of individuals between populations. The analysis of 10 microsatellite markers revealed a persistent overall genetic structure among populations of 2.9%, 2.5% and 3% FST in the respective season. Pairwise comparisons showed that even the closest populations were significantly differentiated from each other in each season, but there was no evidence for temporal differentiation within populations or isolation by distance among populations. Despite significant genetic structure, assignment analyses identified a relatively high proportion of individuals as being immigrants for the population where they were captured. The immigration rate was not significantly lower for females than for males. We suggest that a generally low and sex-dependent effective dispersal rate as the consequence of only few immigrants reproducing successfully in the new populations together with the social structure within populations may explain the maintenance of genetic differentiation among populations despite migration.

Genetic variation and demographic history of the Haplochromis laparogramma group of Lake Victoria-An analysis based on SINEs and mitochondrial DNA

More than 500 endemic haplochromine cichlid species inhabit Lake Victoria. This striking species diversity is a classical example of recent explosive adaptive radiation thought to have happened within the last similar to 15,000 years. In this study, we examined the population structure and historical demography of 3 pelagic haplochromine cichlid species that resemble in morphology and have similar niche, Haplochromis (Yssichromis) laparogramma, Haplochromis (Y.) pyrrhocephalus, and Haplochromis (Y.) sp. "glaucocephalus". We investigated the sequences of the mitochondrial DNA control region and the insertion patterns of short interspersed elements (SINEs) of 759 individuals. We show that sympatric forms are genetically differentiated in 4 of 6 cases, but we also found apparent weakening of the genetic differentiation in areas with turbid water. We estimated the timings of population expansion and species divergence to coincide with the refilling of the lake at the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary. We also found that estimates can be altered significantly by the choice of the shape of the molecular clock. If we employ the nonlinear clock model of evolutionary rates in which the rates are higher towards the recent, the population expansion was dated at around the event of desiccation of the lake ca. 17,000 YBP. Thus, we succeeded in clarifying the species and population structure of closely related Lake Victoria cichlids and in showing the importance of applying appropriate clock calibrations in elucidating recent evolutionary events. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The contribution of intra- and interspecific tolerance variability to biodiversity changes along toxicity gradients

The worldwide distribution of toxicants is an important yet understudied driver of biodiversity, and the mechanisms relating toxicity to diversity have not been adequately explored. Here, we present a community model integrating demography, dispersal and toxicant-induced effects on reproduction driven by intraspecific and interspecific variability in toxicity tolerance. We compare model predictions to 458 species abundance distribu- tions (SADs) observed along concentration gradients of toxicants to show that the best predictions occur when intraspecific variability is five and ten times higher than interspecific variability. At high concentrations, lower settings of intraspecific variability resulted in predictions of community extinction that were not supported by the observed SADs. Subtle but significant species losses at low concentrations were predicted only when intraspecific variability dominated over interspecific variability. Our results propose intraspecific variability as a key driver for biodiversity sustenance in ecosystems challenged by environmental change.

What are predictors for patients' quality of life after pelvic ring fractures?

Background Our knowledge of factors influencing mortality of patients with pelvic ring injuries and the impact of associated injuries is currently based on limited information. Questions/purposes Weidentified the (1) causes and time of death, (2) demography, and (3) pattern and severity of injuries in patients with pelvic ring fractures who did not survive. Methods We prospectively collected data on 5340 patients listed in the German Pelvic Trauma Registry between April 30, 2004 and July 29, 2011; 3034 of 5340 (57%) patientswere female. Demographic data and parameters indicating the type and severity of injury were recorded for patients who died in hospital (nonsurvivors) and compared with data of patients who survived (survivors). The median followup was 13 days (range, 0–1117 days). Results A total of 238 (4%) patients died a median of 2 days after trauma. The main cause of death was massive bleeding (34%), predominantly from the pelvic region (62% of all patients who died because of massive bleeding). Fifty six percent of nonsurvivors and 43% of survivors were male. Nonsurvivors were characterized by a higher incidence of complex pelvic injuries (32% versus 8%), less isolated pelvic ring fractures (13% versus 49%), lower initial blood hemoglobin concentration (6.7 ± 2.9 versus 9.8 ± 3.0 g/dL) and systolic arterial blood pressure (77 ± 27 versus 106 ± 24 mmHg), and higher injury severity score (ISS) (35 ± 16 versus 15 ± 12). Conclusion Patients with pelvic fractures who did not survive were characterized by male gender, severe multiple trauma, and major hemorrhage.