49 resultados para 340401 Economic Models and Forecasting

em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça


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OBJECTIVE: To review systematically and critically, evidence used to derive estimates of costs and cost effectiveness of chlamydia screening. METHODS: Systematic review. A search of 11 electronic bibliographic databases from the earliest date available to August 2004 using keywords including chlamydia, pelvic inflammatory disease, economic evaluation, and cost. We included studies of chlamydia screening in males and/or females over 14 years, including studies of diagnostic tests, contact tracing, and treatment as part of a screening programme. Outcomes included cases of chlamydia identified and major outcomes averted. We assessed methodological quality and the modelling approach used. RESULTS: Of 713 identified papers we included 57 formal economic evaluations and two cost studies. Most studies found chlamydia screening to be cost effective, partner notification to be an effective adjunct, and testing with nucleic acid amplification tests, and treatment with azithromycin to be cost effective. Methodological problems limited the validity of these findings: most studies used static models that are inappropriate for infectious diseases; restricted outcomes were used as a basis for policy recommendations; and high estimates of the probability of chlamydia associated complications might have overestimated cost effectiveness. Two high quality dynamic modelling studies found opportunistic screening to be cost effective but poor reporting or uncertainty about complication rates make interpretation difficult. CONCLUSION: The inappropriate use of static models to study interventions to prevent a communicable disease means that uncertainty remains about whether chlamydia screening programmes are cost effective or not. The results of this review can be used by health service managers in the allocation of resources, and health economists and other researchers who are considering further research in this area.

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Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) in many developed countries. The highest prevalence rates are found among young adults who have frequent partner change rates. Three published individual-based models have incorporated a detailed description of age-specific sexual behaviour in order to quantify the transmission of C. trachomatis in the population and to assess the impact of screening interventions. Owing to varying assumptions about sexual partnership formation and dissolution and the great uncertainty about critical parameters, such models show conflicting results about the impact of preventive interventions. Here, we perform a detailed evaluation of these models by comparing the partnership formation and dissolution dynamics with data from Natsal 2000, a population-based probability sample survey of sexual attitudes and lifestyles in Britain. The data also allow us to describe the dispersion of C. trachomatis infections as a function of sexual behaviour, using the Gini coefficient. We suggest that the Gini coefficient is a useful measure for calibrating infectious disease models that include risk structure and highlight the need to estimate this measure for other STIs.

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Background: The literature on the applications of homeopathy for controlling plant diseases in both plant pathological models and field trials was first reviewed by Scofield in 1984. No other review on homeopathy in plant pathology has been published since, though much new research has subsequently been carried out using more advanced methods. Objectives: To conduct an up-to-date review of the existing literature on basic research in homeopathy using phytopathological models and experiments in the field. Methods: A literature search was carried out on publications from 1969 to 2009, for papers that reported experiments on homeopathy using phytopathological models (in vitro and in planta) and field trials. The selected papers were summarized and analysed on the basis of a Manuscript Information Score (MIS) to identify those that provided sufficient information for proper interpretation (MIS ≥ 5). These were then evaluated using a Study Methods Evaluation Procedure (SMEP). Results: A total of 44 publications on phytopathological models were identified: 19 papers with statistics, 6 studies with MIS ≥ 5. Publications on field were 9, 6 with MIS ≥ 5. In general, significant and reproducible effects with decimal and centesimal potencies were found, including dilution levels beyond the Avogadro's number. Conclusions: The prospects for homeopathic treatments in agriculture are promising, but much more experimentation is needed, especially at a field level, and on potentisation techniques, effective potency levels and conditions for reproducibility. Phytopathological models may also develop into useful tools to answer pharmaceutical questions.