Development and validation of decision rules to guide frequency of monitoring CD4 cell count in HIV-1 infection before starting antiretroviral therapy

Background Although CD4 cell count monitoring is used to decide when to start antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV-1 infection, there are no evidence-based recommendations regarding its optimal frequency. It is common practice to monitor every 3 to 6 months, often coupled with viral load monitoring. We developed rules to guide frequency of CD4 cell count monitoring in HIV infection before starting antiretroviral therapy, which we validated retrospectively in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. Methodology/Principal Findings We built up two prediction rules (“Snap-shot rule” for a single sample and “Track-shot rule” for multiple determinations) based on a systematic review of published longitudinal analyses of CD4 cell count trajectories. We applied the rules in 2608 untreated patients to classify their 18 061 CD4 counts as either justifiable or superfluous, according to their prior ≥5% or <5% chance of meeting predetermined thresholds for starting treatment. The percentage of measurements that both rules falsely deemed superfluous never exceeded 5%. Superfluous CD4 determinations represented 4%, 11%, and 39% of all actual determinations for treatment thresholds of 500, 350, and 200×106/L, respectively. The Track-shot rule was only marginally superior to the Snap-shot rule. Both rules lose usefulness for CD4 counts coming near to treatment threshold. Conclusions/Significance Frequent CD4 count monitoring of patients with CD4 counts well above the threshold for initiating therapy is unlikely to identify patients who require therapy. It appears sufficient to measure CD4 cell count 1 year after a count >650 for a threshold of 200, >900 for 350, or >1150 for 500×106/L, respectively. When CD4 counts fall below these limits, increased monitoring frequency becomes advisable. These rules offer guidance for efficient CD4 monitoring, particularly in resource-limited settings.

Low-temperature evolution of the Morondava rift basin shoulder in western Madagascar: An apatite fission track study

[1] The evolution of the rift shoulder and the sedimentary sequence of the Morondava basin in western Madagascar was mainly influenced by a Permo-Triassic continental failed rift (Karroo rift), and the early Jurassic separation of Madagascar from Africa. Karroo deposits are restricted to a narrow corridor along the basement-basin contact and parts of this contact feature a steep escarpment. Here, apatite fission track (AFT) analysis of a series of both basement and sediment samples across the escarpment reveals the low-temperature evolution of the exhuming Precambrian basement in the rift basin shoulder and the associated thermal evolution of the sedimentary succession. Seven basement and four Karroo sediment samples yield apparent AFT ages between ∼330 and ∼215 Ma and ∼260 and ∼95 Ma, respectively. Partially annealed fission tracks and thermal modeling indicate post-depositional thermal overprinting of both basement and Karroo sediment. Rocks presently exposed in the rift shoulder indicate temperatures of >60°C associated with this reheating whereby the westernmost sample in the sedimentary plain experienced almost complete resetting of the detrital apatite grains at temperatures of about ∼90–100°C. The younging of AFT ages westward indicates activity of faults, re-activating inherited Precambrian structures during Karroo sedimentation. Furthermore, our data suggest onset of final cooling/exhumation linked to (1) the end of Madagascar's drift southward relative to Africa during the Early Cretaceous, (2) activity of the Marion hot spot and associated Late Cretaceous break-up between Madagascar and India, and (3) the collision of India with Eurasia and subsequent re-organization of spreading systems in the Indian Ocean.

Calculating track thrust with track functions

In e+e− event shapes studies at LEP, two different measurements were sometimes performed: a “calorimetric” measurement using both charged and neutral particles and a “track-based” measurement using just charged particles. Whereas calorimetric measurements are infrared and collinear safe, and therefore calculable in perturbative QCD, track-based measurements necessarily depend on nonperturbative hadronization effects. On the other hand, track-based measurements typically have smaller experimental uncertainties. In this paper, we present the first calculation of the event shape “track thrust” and compare to measurements performed at ALEPH and DELPHI. This calculation is made possible through the recently developed formalism of track functions, which are nonperturbative objects describing how energetic partons fragment into charged hadrons. By incorporating track functions into soft-collinear effective theory, we calculate the distribution for track thrust with next-to-leading logarithmic resummation. Due to a partial cancellation between nonperturbative parameters, the distributions for calorimeter thrust and track thrust are remarkably similar, a feature also seen in LEP data.

Calculating Track-Based Observables for the LHC

By using observables that only depend on charged particles (tracks), one can efficiently suppress pileup contamination at the LHC. Such measurements are not infrared safe in perturbation theory, so any calculation of track-based observables must account for hadronization effects. We develop a formalism to perform these calculations in QCD, by matching partonic cross sections onto new nonperturbative objects called track functions which absorb infrared divergences. The track function Ti(x) describes the energy fraction x of a hard parton i which is converted into charged hadrons. We give a field-theoretic definition of the track function and derive its renormalization group evolution, which is in excellent agreement with the pythia parton shower. We then perform a next-to-leading order calculation of the total energy fraction of charged particles in e+e−→ hadrons. To demonstrate the implications of our framework for the LHC, we match the pythia parton shower onto a set of track functions to describe the track mass distribution in Higgs plus one jet events. We also show how to reduce smearing due to hadronization fluctuations by measuring dimensionless track-based ratios.

Search for direct chargino production in anomaly-mediated supersymmetry breaking models based on a disappearing-track signature in pp collisions at sqrts=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for direct chargino production in anomaly-mediated supersymmetry breaking scenarios is performed in p p collisions at root s = 7 TeV using 4.7 fb(-1) of data collected with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. In these models, the lightest chargino is predicted to have a lifetime long enough to be detected in the tracking detectors of collider experiments. This analysis explores such models by searching for chargino decays that result in tracks with few associated hits in the outer region of the tracking system. The transverse-momentum spectrum of candidate tracks is found to be consistent with the expectation from the Standard Model background processes and constraints on chargino properties are obtained.

Search for long-lived, heavy particles in final states with a muon and multi-track displaced vertex in proton–proton collisions at View the MathML sources=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three electrons or muons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb(-1) of root s = 7 TeV proton-proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in three signal regions that are either depleted or enriched in Z-boson decays. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set in R-parity conserving phenomenological minimal supersymmetric models and in simplified models, significantly extending previous results.

Search for long-lived, heavy particles in final states with a muon and multi-track displaced vertex in proton-proton collisions at sqrts=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Many extensions of the Standard Model posit the existence of heavy particles with long lifetimes. In this Letter, results are presented of a search for events containing one or more such particles, which decay at a significant distance from their production point, using a final state containing charged hadrons and an associated muon. This analysis uses a data sample of proton-proton collisions at root s = 7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.4 fb(-1) collected in 2011 by the ATLAS detector operating at the Large Hadron Collider. Results are interpreted in the context of R-parity violating supersymmetric scenarios. No events in the signal region are observed and limits are set on the production cross section for pair production of supersymmetric particles, multiplied by the square of the branching fraction for a neutralino to decay to charged hadrons and a muon, based on the scenario where both of the produced supersymmetric particles give rise to neutralinos that decay in this way. However, since the search strategy is based on triggering on and reconstructing the decay products of individual long-lived particles, irrespective of the rest of the event, these limits can easily be reinterpreted in scenarios with different numbers of long-lived particles per event. The limits are presented as a function of neutralino lifetime, and for a range of squark and neutralino masses.

Search for charginos nearly mass-degenerate with the lightest neutralino based on a disappearing-track signature in pp collisions at sqrts = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for direct chargino production based on a disappearing-track signature using 20.3  fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at s√=8  TeV collected with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. In anomaly-mediated supersymmetry breaking (AMSB) models, the lightest chargino is nearly mass degenerate with the lightest neutralino and its lifetime is long enough to be detected in the tracking detectors by identifying decays that result in tracks with no associated hits in the outer region of the tracking system. Some models with supersymmetry also predict charginos with a significant lifetime. This analysis attains sensitivity for charginos with a lifetime between 0.1 and 10 ns, and significantly surpasses the reach of the LEP experiments. No significant excess above the background expectation is observed for candidate tracks with large transverse momentum, and constraints on chargino properties are obtained. In the AMSB scenarios, a chargino mass below 270 GeV is excluded at 95% confidence level.

A boundary value problem approach to too-short arc optical track association

Given a short-arc optical observation with estimated angle-rates, the admissible region is a compact region in the range / range-rate space defined such that all likely and relevant orbits are contained within it. An alternative boundary value problem formulation has recently been proposed where range / range hypotheses are generated with two angle measurements from two tracks as input. In this paper, angle-rate information is reintroduced as a means to eliminate hypotheses by bounding their constants of motion before a more computationally costly Lambert solver or differential correction algorithm is run.

Capability of a space-based space surveillance system to detect and track objects in GEO, MEO and LEO orbits

In this paper we present the results from the coverage and the orbit determination accuracy simulations performed within the recently completed ESA study “Assessment Study for Space Based Space Surveillance (SBSS) Demonstration System” (Airbus Defence and Space consortium). This study consisted in investigating the capability of a space based optical sensor (SBSS) orbiting in low Earth orbit (LEO) to detect and track objects in GEO (geosynchronous orbit), MEO (medium Earth orbit) and LEO and to determinate and improve initial orbits from such observations. Space based systems may achieve better observation conditions than ground based sensors in terms of astrometric accuracy, detection coverage, and timeliness. The primary observation mode of the proposed SBSS demonstrator is GEO surveillance, i.e. the systematic search and detection of unknown and known objects. GEO orbits are specific and unique orbits from dynamical point of view. A space-based sensor may scan the whole GEO ring within one sidereal day if the orbit and pointing directions are chosen properly. For an efficient survey, our goal was to develop a leak-proof GEO fence strategy. Collaterally, we show that also MEO, LEO and other (GTO,Molniya, etc.) objects would be possible to observe by the system and for a considerable number of LEO objects to down to size of 1 cm we can obtain meaningful statistical data for improvement and validation of space debris environment models