Potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients: derivation and validation of a prediction model

IMPORTANCE Because effective interventions to reduce hospital readmissions are often expensive to implement, a score to predict potentially avoidable readmissions may help target the patients most likely to benefit. OBJECTIVE To derive and internally validate a prediction model for potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients using administrative and clinical data readily available prior to discharge. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Academic medical center in Boston, Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS All patient discharges from any medical services between July 1, 2009, and June 30, 2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions to 3 hospitals of the Partners HealthCare network were identified using a validated computerized algorithm based on administrative data (SQLape). A simple score was developed using multivariable logistic regression, with two-thirds of the sample randomly selected as the derivation cohort and one-third as the validation cohort. RESULTS Among 10 731 eligible discharges, 2398 discharges (22.3%) were followed by a 30-day readmission, of which 879 (8.5% of all discharges) were identified as potentially avoidable. The prediction score identified 7 independent factors, referred to as the HOSPITAL score: h emoglobin at discharge, discharge from an o ncology service, s odium level at discharge, p rocedure during the index admission, i ndex t ype of admission, number of a dmissions during the last 12 months, and l ength of stay. In the validation set, 26.7% of the patients were classified as high risk, with an estimated potentially avoidable readmission risk of 18.0% (observed, 18.2%). The HOSPITAL score had fair discriminatory power (C statistic, 0.71) and had good calibration. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This simple prediction model identifies before discharge the risk of potentially avoidable 30-day readmission in medical patients. This score has potential to easily identify patients who may need more intensive transitional care interventions.

Percutaneous aortic valve replacement for severe aortic stenosis in high-risk patients using the second- and current third-generation self-expanding CoreValve prosthesis: device success and 30-day clinical outcome

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine both the procedural performance and safety of percutaneous implantation of the second (21-French [F])- and third (18-F)-generation CoreValve aortic valve prosthesis (CoreValve Inc., Irvine, California). BACKGROUND: Percutaneous aortic valve replacement represents an emerging alternative therapy for high-risk and inoperable patients with severe symptomatic aortic valve stenosis. METHODS: Patients with: 1) symptomatic, severe aortic valve stenosis (area <1 cm2); 2) age > or =80 years with a logistic EuroSCORE > or =20% (21-F group) or age > or =75 years with a logistic EuroSCORE > or =15% (18-F group); or 3) age > or =65 years plus additional prespecified risk factors were included. Introduction of the 18-F device enabled the transition from a multidisciplinary approach involving general anesthesia, surgical cut-down, and cardiopulmonary bypass to a truly percutaneous approach under local anesthesia without hemodynamic support. RESULTS: A total of 86 patients (21-F, n = 50; 18-F, n = 36) with a mean valve area of 0.66 +/- 0.19 cm2 (21-F) and 0.54 +/- 0.15 cm2 (18-F), a mean age of 81.3 +/- 5.2 years (21-F) and 83.4 +/- 6.7 years (18-F), and a mean logistic EuroSCORE of 23.4 +/- 13.5% (21-F) and 19.1 +/- 11.1% (18-F) were recruited. Acute device success was 88%. Successful device implantation resulted in a marked reduction of aortic transvalvular gradients (mean pre 43.7 mm Hg vs. post 9.0 mm Hg, p < 0.001) with aortic regurgitation grade remaining unchanged. Acute procedural success rate was 74% (21-F: 78%; 18-F: 69%). Procedural mortality was 6%. Overall 30-day mortality rate was 12%; the combined rate of death, stroke, and myocardial infarction was 22%. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of severe aortic valve stenosis in high-risk patients with percutaneous implantation of the CoreValve prosthesis is feasible and associated with a lower mortality rate than predicted by risk algorithms.

Procedural and 30-day outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve implantation using the third generation (18 Fr) corevalve revalving system: results from the multicentre, expanded evaluation registry 1-year following CE mark approval

AIMS: To describe the procedural performance and 30-day outcomes following implantation using the 18 Fr CoreValve Revalving System (CRS) as part of the multicentre, expanded evaluation registry, 1-year after obtaining CE mark approval. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with symptomatic severe aortic stenosis and logistic Euroscore > or =15%, or age > or =75 years, or age > or =65 years associated with pre-defined risk factors, and for whom a physician proctor and a clinical specialist were in attendance during the implantation and who collected the clinical data, were included. From April 2007, to April 2008, 646 patients with a mean age of 81 +/- 6.6 years, mean aortic valve area 0.6 +/- 0.2 cm2, and logistic EuroSCORE of 23.1 +/- 13.8% were recruited. After valve implantation, the mean transaortic valve gradient decreased from 49.4 +/- 13.9 to 3 +/- 2 mmHg. All patients had paravalvular aortic regurgitation < or = grade 2. The rate of procedural success was 97%. The procedural mortality rate was 1.5%. At 30 days, the all-cause mortality rate (i.e, including procedural) was 8% and the combined rate of death, stroke and myocardial infarction was 9.3%. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study demonstrate the high rate of procedural success and a low 30-day mortality in a large cohort of high-risk patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) with the CRS.

A comparison of patient characteristics and 30-day mortality outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation and surgical aortic valve replacement for the treatment of aortic stenosis: a two-centre study

AIMS: It is unclear whether transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) addresses an unmet clinical need for those currently rejected for surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) and whether there is a subgroup of high-risk patients benefiting more from TAVI compared to SAVR. In this two-centre, prospective cohort study, we compared baseline characteristics and 30-day mortality between TAVI and SAVR in consecutive patients undergoing invasive treatment for aortic stenosis. METHODS AND RESULTS: We pre-specified different adjustment methods to examine the effect of TAVI as compared with SAVR on overall 30-day mortality: crude univariable logistic regression analysis, multivariable analysis adjusted for baseline characteristics, analysis adjusted for propensity scores, propensity score matched analysis, and weighted analysis using the inverse probability of treatment (IPT) as weights. A total of 1,122 patients were included in the study: 114 undergoing TAVI and 1,008 patients undergoing SAVR. The crude mortality rate was greater in the TAVI group (9.6% vs. 2.3%) yielding an odds ratio [OR] of 4.57 (95%-CI 2.17-9.65). Compared to patients undergoing SAVR, patients with TAVI were older, more likely to be in NYHA class III and IV, and had a considerably higher logistic EuroSCORE and more comorbid conditions. Adjusted OR depended on the method used to control for confounding and ranged from 0.60 (0.11-3.36) to 7.57 (0.91-63.0). We examined the distribution of propensity scores and found scores to overlap sufficiently only in a narrow range. In patients with sufficient overlap of propensity scores, adjusted OR ranged from 0.35 (0.04-2.72) to 3.17 (0.31 to 31.9). In patients with insufficient overlap, we consistently found increased odds of death associated with TAVI compared with SAVR irrespective of the method used to control confounding, with adjusted OR ranging from 5.88 (0.67-51.8) to 25.7 (0.88-750). Approximately one third of patients undergoing TAVI were found to be potentially eligible for a randomised comparison of TAVI versus SAVR. CONCLUSIONS: Both measured and unmeasured confounding limit the conclusions that can be drawn from observational comparisons of TAVI versus SAVR. Our study indicates that TAVI could be associated with either substantial benefits or harms. Randomised comparisons of TAVI versus SAVR are warranted.

Diseases in neonatal foals. Part 1: the 30 day incidence of disease and the effect of prophylactic antimicrobial drug treatment during the first three days post partum

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Neonatal diseases have been grouped and analysed but up-to-date statistically significant information about the incidence and prevalence of diseases in foals is limited. Since the 1950s it has been a common management practice to administer a 3 day course of antimicrobial drugs to neonatal foals. This was shown to significantly reduce the incidence of infections (Platt 1977). Since then management practices have improved and it is widely believed that prophylactic antimicrobial drugs are no longer necessary in foal rearing. OBJECTIVES: To determine the 30 day incidences or prevalences (depending on case definition) of various diseases and conditions in the neonatal foal and ascertain the influence of a prophylactic 3 day treatment on the frequency of infections. METHODS: The population consisted of Thoroughbred foals born on stud farms in the Newmarket (UK) area in 2005 (n = 1031). Depending on the stud farm's practice in the use of prophylactic antimicrobial drugs, 2 groups of newborn foals (treated and untreated) were identified and followed for 30 days. RESULTS: The 30 day incidences of infectious diseases under study were between 0.2% (osteomyelitis) and 5.85% (systemic disease with diarrhoea). The overall incidence for 'total infectious diseases' was 8.27%. The most commonly observed noninfectious condition was limb deformities (12.11% of all foals). There was no significant difference in the incidence of infectious diseases between the 2 groups. CONCLUSION: Infectious diseases are still an important problem in neonatal foals requiring further investigation as to which factors other than antimicrobial prophylaxis are relevant for disease prevention. POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: The results provide an up-to-date overview about the frequencies of various neonatal foal diseases. They do not support the traditional prophylactic use of antimicrobials to prevent infectious diseases in healthy newborn foals. However, it should be noted that this study was not a randomised controlled trial and therefore does not provide the strongest possible evidence for this conclusion.

White blood cell count and mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

Although associated with adverse outcomes in other cardiovascular diseases, the prognostic value of an elevated white blood cell (WBC) count, a marker of inflammation and hypercoagulability, is uncertain in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). We therefore sought to assess the prognostic impact of the WBC in a large, state-wide retrospective cohort of patients with PE. We evaluated 14,228 patient discharges with a primary diagnosis of PE from 186 hospitals in Pennsylvania. We used random-intercept logistic regression to assess the independent association between WBC count levels at the time of presentation and mortality and hospital readmission within 30 days, adjusting for patient and hospital characteristics. Patients with an admission WBC count <5.0, 5.0-7.8, 7.9-9.8, 9.9-12.6, and >12.6 × 10(9) /L had a cumulative 30-day mortality of 10.9%, 6.2%, 5.4%, 8.3%, and 16.3% (P < 0.001), and a readmission rate of 17.6%, 11.9%, 10.9%, 11.5%, and 15.0%, respectively (P < 0.001). Compared with patients with a WBC count 7.9-9.8 × 10(9) /L, adjusted odds of 30-day mortality were significantly greater for patients with a WBC count <5.0 × 10(9) /L (odds ratio [OR] 1.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-2.03), 9.9-12.6 × 10(9) /L (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.26-1.91), or >12.6 × 10(9) /L (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.83-2.69), respectively. The adjusted odds of readmission were also significantly increased for patients with a WBC count <5.0 × 10(9) /L (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.07-1.68) or >12.6 × 10(9) /L (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.10-1.51). In patients presenting with PE, WBC count is an independent predictor of short-term mortality and hospital readmission.

Risk factors for potentially avoidable readmissions due to end-of-life care issues

BACKGROUND Repeated hospitalizations are frequent toward the end of life, where each admission should be an opportunity to initiate advance-care planning to high-risk patients. OBJECTIVE To identify the risk factors for having a 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues among all medical patients. DESIGN Nested case-control study. SETTING/PATIENTS All 10,275 consecutive discharges from any medical service of an academic tertiary medical center in Boston, Massachusetts between July 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010. MEASUREMENTS A random sample of all the potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions was independently reviewed by 9 trained physicians to identify the ones due to end-of-life issues. RESULTS Among 534, 30-day potentially avoidable readmission cases reviewed, 80 (15%) were due to an end-of-life care issue. In multivariable analysis, the following risk factors were significantly associated with a 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues: number of admissions in the previous 12 months (odds ratio [OR]: 1.10 per admission, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.20), neoplasm (OR: 5.60, 95% CI: 2.85-10.98), opiate medications at discharge (OR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.29-4.07), Elixhauser comorbidity index (OR: 1.16 per 5-point increase, 95% CI: 1.10-1.22). The discrimination of the model (C statistic) was 0.85. CONCLUSIONS In a medical population, we identified 4 main risk factors that were significantly associated with 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues, producing a model with very good to excellent discrimination. Patients with these risk factors might benefit from palliative care consultation prior to discharge in order to improve end-of-life care and possibly reduce unnecessary rehospitalizations.

Prognostic importance of anaemia in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

Although associated with adverse outcomes in other cardiopulmonary diseases, limited evidence exists on the prognostic value of anaemia in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We sought to examine the associations between anaemia and mortality and length of hospital stay in patients with PE. We evaluated 14,276 patients with a primary diagnosis of PE from 186 hospitals in Pennsylvania, USA. We used random-intercept logistic regression to assess the association between anaemia at the time of presentation and 30-day mortality and discrete-time logistic hazard models to assess the association between anaemia and time to hospital discharge, adjusting for patient (age, gender, race, insurance type, clinical and laboratory variables) and hospital (region, size, teaching status) factors. Anaemia was present in 38.7% of patients at admission. Patients with anaemia had a higher 30-day mortality (13.7% vs. 6.3%; p <0.001) and a longer length of stay (geometric mean, 6.9 vs. 6.6 days; p <0.001) compared to patients without anaemia. In multivariable analyses, anaemia remained associated with an increased odds of death (OR 1.82, 95% CI: 1.60-2.06) and a decreased odds of discharge (OR 0.85, 95% CI: 0.82-0.89). Anaemia is very common in patients presenting with PE and is independently associated with an increased short-term mortality and length of stay.

The shock index and the simplified PESI for identification of low-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism

We compared the test characteristics of the shock index (SI) and the simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) for predicting 30-day outcomes in a cohort of 1,206 patients with objectively confirmed pulmonary embolism (PE). The primary outcome of the study was all-cause mortality. The secondary outcome was nonfatal symptomatic recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) or nonfatal major bleeding. Overall, 119 (9.9%) out of 1,206 patients died (95% CI 8.2-11.5%) during the first month of follow-up. The sPESI classified fewer patients as low-risk (369 (31%) out of 1,206 patients, 95% CI 28-33%) compared to the SI (1,024 (85%) out of 1,206 patients, 95% CI 83-87%) (p<0.001). Low-risk patients based on the sPESI had a lower 30-day mortality than those based on the SI (1.6% (95% CI 0.3-2.9%) versus 8.3% (95% CI 6.6-10.0%)), while the 30-day rate of nonfatal recurrent VTE or major bleeding was similar (2.2% (95%CI 0.7-3.6%) versus 3.3% (95%CI 2.2-4.4%)). The net reclassification improvement with the sPESI was 13.4% (p = 0.07). The integrated discrimination improvement was estimated as 1.8% (p<0.001). The sPESI quantified the prognosis of patients with PE better than the SI.

Recent developments for surgical aortic valve replacement: the concept of sutureless valve technology

Aortic stenosis has become the most frequent type of valvular heart disease in Europe and North America and presents in the large majority of patients as calcified aortic stenosis in adults of advanced age. Surgical aortic valve replacement has been recognized to be the definitive therapy which improves considerably survival for severe aortic stenosis since more than 40 years. In the most recent period, operative mortality of isolated aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis varies between 1–3% in low-risk patients younger than 70 years and between 4 and 8% in selected older adults. Long-term survival following aortic valve replacement is close to that observed in a control population of similar age. Numerous observational studies have consistently demonstrated that corrective surgery in symptomatic patients is invariably followed by a subjective improvement in quality of life and a substantial increase in survival rates. More recently, transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has been demonstrated to be feasible in patients with high surgical risk using either a retrograde transfemoral or transsubclavian approach or an antegrade, transapical access. Reported 30-day mortality ranges between 5 and 15%) and is acceptable when compared to the risk predicted by the logistic EuroSCORE (varying between 20 and 35%) and the STS Score, although the EuroScore has been shown to markedly overestimate the effective operative risk. One major concern remains the high rate of paravalvular regurgitation which is observed in up to 85% of the patients and which requires further follow-up and critical evaluation. In addition, long-term durability of these valves with a focus on the effects of crimping remains to be addressed, although 3-5 year results are promising. Sutureless biological valves were designed to simplify and significantly accelerate the surgical replacement of a diseased valve and allow complete excision of the calcified native valve. Until now, there are 3 different sutureless prostheses that have been approved. The 3f Enable valve from ATS-Medtronic received CE market approval in 2010, the Perceval S from Sorin during Q1 of 2011 and the intuity sutureless prosthesis from Edwards in 2012. All these devices aim to facilitate valve surgery and therefore have the potential to decrease the invasivness and to shorten the conventional procedure without compromise in term of excision of the diseased valve. This review summarizes the history and the current knowledge of sutureless valve technology.

A comparison of the original and simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index

The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) is a validated clinical prognostic model for patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). Recently, a simplified version of the PESI was developed. We sought to compare the prognostic performance of the original and simplified PESI. Using data from 15,531 patients with PE, we compared the proportions of patients classified as low versus higher risk between the original and simplified PESI and estimated 30-day mortality within each risk group. To assess the models' accuracy to predict mortality, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values and likelihood ratios for low- versus higher-risk patients. We also compared the models' discriminative power by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. The overall 30-day mortality was 9.3%. The original PESI classified a significantly greater proportion of patients as low-risk than the simplified PESI (40.9% vs. 36.8%; p<0.001). Low-risk patients based on the original and simplified PESI had a mortality of 2.3% and 2.7%, respectively. The original and simplified PESI had similar sensitivities (90% vs. 89%), negative predictive values (98% vs. 97%), and negative likelihood ratios (0.23 vs. 0.28) for predicting mortality. The original PESI had a significantly greater discriminatory power than the simplified PESI (area under the ROC curve 0.78 [95% CI: 0.77-0.79] vs. 0.72 [95% CI: 0.71-0.74]; p<0.001). In conclusion, even though the simplified PESI accurately identified patients at low-risk of adverse outcomes, the original PESI classified a higher proportion of patients as low-risk and had a greater discriminatory power than the simplified PESI.

Prospective comparison of clinical prognostic scores in elderly patients with pulmonary embolism

Background: The Geneva Prognostic Score (GPS), the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), and its simplified version (sPESI) are well known clinical prognostic scores for pulmonary embolism (PE).Objectives: To compare the prognostic performance of these scores in elderly patients with PE. Patients/Methods: In a multicenter Swiss cohort of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism, we prospectively studied 449 patients aged ≥65 years with symptomatic PE. The outcome was 30-day overall mortality. We dichotomized patients as low- vs. higher-risk in all three scores using the following thresholds: GPS scores ≤2 vs. >2, PESI risk classes I-II vs. III-V, and sPESI scores 0 vs. ≥1. We compared 30-day mortality in low- vs. higher-risk patients and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Results: Overall, 3.8% of patients (17/449) died within 30 days. The GPS classified a greater proportion of patients as low risk (92% [413/449]) than the PESI (36.3% [163/449]) and the sPESI (39.6% [178/449]) (P<0.001 for each comparison). Low-risk patients based on the sPESI had a mortality of 0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0-2.1%) compared to 0.6% (95% CI 0-3.4%) for low-risk patients based on the PESI and 3.4% (95% CI 1.9-5.6%) for low-risk patients based on the GPS. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.77 (95%CI 0.72-0.81), 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80), and 0.71 (95% CI 0.66-0.75), respectively (P=0.47). Conclusions: In this cohort of elderly patients with PE, the GPS identified a higher proportion of patients as low-risk but the PESI and sPESI were more accurate in predicting mortality.

Quality of life in high-risk patients: comparison of transcatheter aortic valve implantation with surgical aortic valve replacement

OBJECTIVES To compare health-related quality of life (QoL) in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation via transapical access (TA TAVI) with patients undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). METHODS One hundred and forty-four high-risk patients referred for aortic valve replacement underwent TAVI screening and were assigned to either TA TAVI (n = 51, age 79.7 ± 9.2 years, logistic EuroSCORE 26.5 ± 16.1%, 51% males) or SAVR (n = 93, age 81.1 ± 5.3 years, logistic EuroSCORE 12.1 ± 9.3%, 42% males) by the interdisciplinary heart team. QoL was assessed using the Short Form 36 (SF-36) Health Survey Questionnaire and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Furthermore, current living conditions and the degree of independence at home were evaluated. RESULTS Patients undergoing TA TAVI were at higher risk as assessed by EuroSCORE (26.5 ± 16 vs. 12.1 ± 9, P < 0.001) and STS score (6.7 ± 4 vs. 4.4 ± 3, P < 0.001) compared with SAVR patients. At the 30-day follow-up, the rate of mortality was similar and amounted to 7.8% for TA TAVI and 7.5% for SAVR patients and raised to 25.5% in TA TAVI and 18.3% in SAVR patients after a follow-up period of 15 ± 10 months. Assessment of QoL revealed no differences in terms of anxiety and depression between TA TAVI and SAVR patients. The SF-36 mental health metascore was similar in both groups (65.6 ± 19 vs. 68.8 ± 22, P = 0.29), while a significant difference was observed in the physical health metascore (49.7 ± 21 vs. 62.0 ± 21, P = 0.015). After adjustment for baseline characteristics, this difference disappeared. However, every added point in the preoperative risk assessment with the STS score decreased the SF-36 physical health dimension by two raw points at the follow-up assessment. CONCLUSIONS Selected high-risk patients undergoing TAVI by using a transapical access achieve similar clinical outcomes and QoL compared with patients undergoing SAVR. Increased STS scores predict worse QoL outcomes.

Changes in PESI scores predict mortality in intermediate-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism

Although the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) accurately identifies 35% of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) as being low risk, some patients deemed high risk by the PESI on admission might be treated safely in the outpatient environment. This retrospective cohort study included a total of 304 consecutive patients with acute PE, classified at the time of hospital admission into PESI class III. The PESI was recalculated 48 h after admission (PESI(48)) and each patient reclassified into the corresponding risk category. The primary outcome of the study was all-cause mortality between day 2 and day 30 after PE diagnosis. 26 (8.5%) patients (95% CI 5.4-11.7%) died between day 2 and day 30 after PE diagnosis. Investigators reclassified 83 (27.3%) patients (95% CI 22.3-32.3%) as low risk (classes I and II) at 48 h. 30-day mortality in these patients was 1.2% (95% CI 0-3.5%) as opposed to 11.3% (95% CI 7.1-15.5%) in those who remained high risk. The net improvement in reclassification was estimated at 54% (p<0.001). In a cohort of intermediate-risk patients with acute PE, calculation of the PESI(48) allows identification of those patients at very low risk of dying during the first month of follow-up.