External validation of the Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model for predicting death within 1 year after hospital admission

BACKGROUND Predicting long-term survival after admission to hospital is helpful for clinical, administrative and research purposes. The Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model was derived and internally validated to predict the risk of death within 1 year after admission. We conducted an external validation of the model in a large multicentre study. METHODS We used administrative data for all nonpsychiatric admissions of adult patients to hospitals in the provinces of Ontario (2003-2010) and Alberta (2011-2012), and to the Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston (2010-2012) to calculate each patient's HOMR score at admission. The HOMR score is based on a set of parameters that captures patient demographics, health burden and severity of acute illness. We determined patient status (alive or dead) 1 year after admission using population-based registries. RESULTS The 3 validation cohorts (n = 2,862,996 in Ontario, 210 595 in Alberta and 66,683 in Boston) were distinct from each other and from the derivation cohort. The overall risk of death within 1 year after admission was 8.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.7% to 8.8%). The HOMR score was strongly and significantly associated with risk of death in all populations and was highly discriminative, with a C statistic ranging from 0.89 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.91) to 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.92). Observed and expected outcome risks were similar (median absolute difference in percent dying in 1 yr 0.3%, interquartile range 0.05%-2.5%). INTERPRETATION The HOMR score, calculated using routinely collected administrative data, accurately predicted the risk of death among adult patients within 1 year after admission to hospital for nonpsychiatric indications. Similar performance was seen when the score was used in geographically and temporally diverse populations. The HOMR model can be used for risk adjustment in analyses of health administrative data to predict long-term survival among hospital patients.

Predicting adverse events in children with fever and chemotherapy-induced neutropenia: the prospective multicenter SPOG 2003 FN study

PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.

Hemolytic-uremic syndrome in Switzerland: a nationwide surveillance 1997-2003

Hemolytic-uremic syndrome (HUS) is a leading cause of acute renal failure in childhood. In its typical presentation, it is preceded by an episode of diarrhea mostly due to Shiga-toxin-producing Escherichia coli. There is important geographical variation of many aspects of this syndrome. Nationwide data on childhood HUS in Switzerland have not been available so far. In a prospective national study through the Swiss Pediatric Surveillance Unit 114 cases (median age 21 months, 50% boys) were reported between April 1997 and March 2003 by 38 pediatric units (annual incidence 1.42 per 10(5) children < or =16 years). Shiga-toxin-producing E. coli were isolated in 32 (60%) of tested stool samples, serotype O157:H7 in eight. Sixteen children presented with only minimal renal involvement, including three with underlying urinary tract infection. Six patients presented with atypical hemolytic-uremic syndrome, and six with HUS due to invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae infection. Mortality was 5.3%, including two out of six children with S. pneumoniae infection. The severity of thrombocytopenia and the presence of central nervous system involvement significantly correlated with mortality. In conclusion, childhood HUS is not rare in Switzerland. Contrasting other countries, E. coli O157:H7 play only a minor role in the etiology. Incomplete manifestation is not uncommon.

Supply sensitive services in Swiss ambulatory care: an analysis of basic health insurance records for 2003-2007

Swiss ambulatory care is characterized by independent, and primarily practice-based, physicians, receiving fee for service reimbursement. This study analyses supply sensitive services using ambulatory care claims data from mandatory health insurance. A first research question was aimed at the hypothesis that physicians with large patient lists decrease their intensity of services and bill less per patient to health insurance, and vice versa: physicians with smaller patient lists compensate for the lack of patients with additional visits and services. A second research question relates to the fact that several cantons are allowing physicians to directly dispense drugs to patients ('self-dispensation') whereas other cantons restrict such direct sales to emergencies only. This second question was based on the assumption that patterns of rescheduling patients for consultations may differ across channels of dispensing prescription drugs and therefore the hypothesis of different consultation costs in this context was investigated.

Pregnancy and delivery outcomes of HIV infected women in Switzerland 2003-2008

Rates of vertical HIV transmission between mother and child are low, allowing many HIV positive women to have children with near impunity. In this study, data from the Swiss Mother and Child HIV Cohort Study were used to describe maternal characteristics and their association with pregnancy outcomes in HIV positive women.

Haematopoietic stem cell transplantation in Switzerland. Report from the Swiss Transplant Working Group Blood and Marrow Transplantation (STABMT) Registry 1997-2003

In 1997, the Swiss Transplant Working Group Blood and Marrow Transplantation (STABMT) initiated a mandatory national registry for all haematopoietic stem cell transplants (HSCT) in Switzerland. As of 2003, information was collected of 2010 patients with a first HSCT (577 allogeneic (29%) and 1433 autologous (71%) HSCT) and 616 additional re-transplants. This included 1167 male and 843 female patients with a median age of 42.4 years (range 0.2-76.6 years). Main indications were leukaemias (592; 29%) lymphoproliferative disorders (1,061; 53%), solid tumours (295; 15%) and non-malignant disorders (62; 3%). At the time of analysis 1,263 patients were alive (63%), 747 had died (37%). Probability of survival, transplant related mortality or relapse at 5 years was 52%, 21%, 36% for allogeneic and 54%, 5%, 60% for autologous HSCT. Outcome depended on indication, donor type, stem cell source and age of patient. HSCT is an established therapy in Switzerland. These data describe current practice and outcome.