Causes and consequences of past and projected Scandinavian summer temperatures, 500-2100 AD

Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years.

[Alban Köhler (1874-1947): Inventor of grid therapy]

Grid (or sieve) therapy ("Gitter-" oder "Siebtherapie"), spatially fractionated kilo- and megavolt X-ray therapy, was invented in 1909 by Alban Köhler, a radiologist in Wiesbaden, Germany. He tested it on several patients before 1913 using approximately 60-70kV Hittorf-Crookes tubes. Köhler pushed the X-ray tube's lead-shielded housing against a stiff grid of 1 mm-square iron wires woven 3.0-3.5mm on center, taped tightly to the skin over a thin chamois. Numerous islets unshielded by iron in the pressure-blanched skin were irradiated with up to about 6 erythema doses (ED). The skin was then thoroughly cleansed, disinfected, and bandaged; delayed punctate necrosis healed in several weeks. Although grid therapy was disparaged or ignored until the 1930s, it has been used successfully since then to shrink bulky malignancies. Also, advanced cancers in rats and mice have been mitigated or ablated using Köhler's concept since the early 1990s by unidirectional or stereotactic exposure to an array of nearly parallel microplanar (25-75μm-wide) beams of very intense, moderately hard (median energy approximately 100 keV) synchrotron-generated X rays spaced 0.1-0.4mm on center. Such beams maintain sharp edges at high doses well beneath the skin yet confer little toxicity. They could palliate some otherwise intractable malignancies, perhaps in young children too, with tolerable sequelae. There are plans for such studies in larger animals.

Arctic Winds in the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis”

Climate in the European part of the Arctic underwent a rapid warming between the 1910s and the 1930s. Previous studies have addressed the role of atmospheric circulation in this period based on geopotential height fields because observations of upper-level winds in the Arctic are rare. Here we analyse winds over the Arctic and specifically over Spitsbergen in the “Twentieth Century Reanalyses” (20CR). We compare in situ upper-air wind measurements performed in 1912 and 1913 in Spitsbergen with six-hourly 20CR data. Furthermore, we compare monthly-to-seasonal 20CR winds at 700 hPa over the European Arctic with statistically reconstructed winds at 3 km altitude. Finally, we analyse long-term trends in Arctic winds in 20CR. The general agreement between observed upper-air winds and 20CR on the day-to-day scale is rather poor, which is not surprising given the paucity of observations in the Arctic at that time that constrain 20CR. In contrast, the seasonally averaged winds (which represent a larger spatial scale) in 20CR compare well with statistically reconstructed winds. The analysis of long term near-surface wind time series in 20CR shows arguably artificial trends from 1871 to around the 1950s over sparsely observed regions, particularly oceanic regions. Densely observed regions such as Europe or the USA show no such trends. This analysis shows that great care needs to be taken when working with 20CR in the Arctic and other sparsely observed regions.

Repression, Anpassung, Neuorientierung: Islamische Bildung im sowjetischen und post- sowjetischen Raum

How did Islam survive in the Soviet Union, and how did it develop since 1991? In four case studies and four longitudinal surveys, senior specialists from the area and two German junior scholars discuss the transformations of Islam in Tatarstan, Azerbaijan, Daghestan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Several chapters analyze the Bolsheviks’ attack on Islam since the 1920s. Altay Göyüşov and Il’nur Minnullin demonstrate how the Soviets first attempted to draw some groups of Muslim scholars and intellectuals to their side, in Azerbaijan and Tatarstan, respectively. In the early 1930s collectivization and outright state terror made a complete end to the Islamic infrastructure, including mosques and pious foundations, Muslim village courts (as shown by Vladimir Bobrovnikov for Dagestan), Islamic educational institutions (as documented by Aširbek Muminov for Uzbekistan), as well as the Muslim press (analyzed by Dilyara Usmanova for Tatarstan); also Sufi brotherhoods became a main target of violent repression (Šamil‘ Šixaliev, for Dagestan). Repression was followed by the establishment of a modus vivendi between state and religion in the post-war period (Muminov, Bobrovnikov, Šixaliev), and by the instrumentalization of religion for patriotic purposes in the post-Soviet Caucasus and Central Asia (Christine Hunner-Kreisel, Manja Stephan, both based on fieldwork). By the early 2000s Islam was almost everywhere back under full state control; the leading role of the state for defining „good“ and „bad“ Islam is largely taken for granted. While similar forms of state pressure in all regions thus allow us to draw an overall picture of how Islamic traditions were repressed and reanimated, the „archival revolution“ of the early 1990s provides fascinating insights into the specific developments in the individual regions, and into the adaptation strategies of the Muslim scholars and intellectuals on the spot. Still, the Soviet heritage is still very palpable; also the attempts to leapfrog the Soviet period and to link up again with the individual local Islamic traditions from before 1917, and even the negation of the Soviet experience in the form of embracing Islamic trends from abroad, are often still couched in largely Soviet mental frameworks.

Summer temperature in the eastern part of southern South America: its variability in the twentieth century and a teleconnection with Oceania

The 1907–2001 summer-to-summer surface air temperature variability in the eastern part of southern South America (SSA, partly including Patagonia) is analysed. Based on records from instruments located next to the Atlantic Ocean (36°S–55°S), we define indices for the interannual and interdecadal timescales. The main interdecadal mode reflects the late-1970s cold-to-warm climate shift in the region and a warm-to-cold transition during early 1930s. Although it has been in phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index since the 1960s, they diverged in the preceding decades. The main interannual variability index exhibits high spectral power at ~3.4 years and is representative of temperature variability in a broad area in the southern half of the continent. Eleven-years running correlation coefficients between this index and December-to-February (DJF) Niño3.4 show significant decadal fluctuations, out-of-phase with the running correlation with a DJF index of the Southern Annular Mode. The main interannual variability index is associated with a barotropic wavetrain-like pattern extending over the South Pacific from Oceania to SSA. During warm (cold) summers in SSA, significant anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies tend to predominate over eastern Australia, to the north of the Ross Sea, and to the east of SSA, whereas anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation is observed over New Zealand and west of SSA. This teleconnection links warm (cold) SSA anomalies with dry (wet) summers in eastern Australia. The covariability seems to be influenced by the characteristics of tropical forcing; indeed, a disruption has been observed since late 1970s, presumably due to the PDO warm phase.

Flexibility Properties in Complex Analysis and Affine Algebraic Geometry

In the last decades affine algebraic varieties and Stein manifolds with big (infinite-dimensional) automorphism groups have been intensively studied. Several notions expressing that the automorphisms group is big have been proposed. All of them imply that the manifold in question is an Oka–Forstnerič manifold. This important notion has also recently merged from the intensive studies around the homotopy principle in Complex Analysis. This homotopy principle, which goes back to the 1930s, has had an enormous impact on the development of the area of Several Complex Variables and the number of its applications is constantly growing. In this overview chapter we present three classes of properties: (1) density property, (2) flexibility, and (3) Oka–Forstnerič. For each class we give the relevant definitions, its most significant features and explain the known implications between all these properties. Many difficult mathematical problems could be solved by applying the developed theory, we indicate some of the most spectacular ones.

Reconciling Precipitation with Runoff: Observed Hydrological Change in the Midlatitudes

Century-long observed gridded land precipitation datasets are a cornerstone of hydrometeorological research. But recent work has suggested that observed Northern Hemisphere midlatitude (NHML) land mean precipitation does not show evidence of an expected negative response to mid-twentieth-century aerosol forcing. Utilizing observed river discharges, the observed runoff is calculated and compared with observed land precipitation. The results show a near-zero twentieth-century trendinobserved NHML landmean runoff,in contrast to the significant positive trend in observed NHML land mean precipitation. However, precipitation and runoff share common interannual and decadal variability. An obvious split, or breakpoint, is found in the NHML land mean runoff–precipitation relationship in the 1930s. Using runoff simulated by six land surface models (LSMs), which are driven by the observed precipitation dataset, such breakpoints are absent. These findings support previous hypotheses that inhomogeneities exist in the early-twentieth-century NHML land mean precipitation record. Adjusting the observed precipitation record according to the observed runoff record largely accounts for the departure of the observed precipitation response from that predicted given the real-world aerosol forcing estimate, more than halving the discrepancy from about 6 to around 2 W m 22. Consideration of complementary observed runoff adds support to the suggestion that NHML-wide early-twentieth-century precipitation observations are unsuitable for climate change studies. The agreement between precipitation and runoff over Europe, however, is excellent, supporting the use of whole-twentieth-century observed precipitation datasets here.

Atmospheric histories and global emissions of halons H-1211 (CBrClF 2 ), H-1301 (CBrF 3 ), and H-2402 (CBrF 2 CBrF 2 )

We report ground-based atmospheric measurements and emission estimates for the halons H-1211 (CBrClF₂), H-1301 (CBrF₃), and H-2402 (CBrF₂CBrF₂) from the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration global networks. We also include results from archived air samples in canisters and from polar firn in both hemispheres, thereby deriving an atmospheric record of nearly nine decades (1930s to present). All three halons were absent from the atmosphere until ~1970, when their atmospheric burdens started to increase rapidly. In recent years H-1211 and H-2402 mole fractions have been declining, but H-1301 has continued to grow. High-frequency observations show continuing emissions of H-1211 and H-1301 near most AGAGE sites. For H-2402 the only emissions detected were derived from the region surrounding the Sea of Japan/East Sea. Based on our observations, we derive global emissions using two different inversion approaches. Emissions for H-1211 declined from a peak of 11 kt yr⁻¹ (late 1990s) to 3.9 kt yr⁻¹ at the end of our record (mean of 2013–2015), for H-1301 from 5.4 kt yr⁻¹ (late 1980s) to 1.6 kt yr⁻¹, and for H-2402 from 1.8 kt yr⁻¹ (late 1980s) to 0.38 kt yr⁻¹. Yearly summed halon emissions have decreased substantially; nevertheless, since 2000 they have accounted for ~30% of the emissions of all major anthropogenic ozone depletion substances, when weighted by ozone depletion potentials.