Noble gas, CFC and other geochemical evidence for the age and origin of the Bath thermal waters, UK

The city of Bath is a World Heritage site and its thermal waters, the Roman Baths and new spa development rely on undisturbed flow of the springs (45 °C). The current investigations provide an improved understanding of the residence times and flow regime as basis for the source protection. Trace gas indicators including the noble gases (helium, neon, argon, krypton and xenon) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), together with a more comprehensive examination of chemical and stable isotope tracers are used to characterise the sources of the thermal water and any modern components. It is shown conclusively by the use of 39Ar that the bulk of the thermal water has been in circulation within the Carboniferous Limestone for at least 1000 years. Other stable isotope and noble gas measurements confirm previous findings and strongly suggest recharge within the Holocene time period (i.e. the last 12 kyr). Measurements of dissolved 85Kr and chlorofluorocarbons constrain previous indications from tritium that a small proportion (<5%) of the thermal water originates from modern leakage into the spring pipe passing through Mesozoic valley fill underlying Bath. This introduces small amounts of O2 into the system, resulting in the Fe precipitation seen in the King’s Spring. Silica geothermometry indicates that the water is likely to have reached a maximum temperature of between 69–99 °C, indicating a most probable maximum circulation depth of ∼3 km, which is in line with recent geological models. The rise to the surface of the water is sufficiently indirect that a temperature loss of >20 °C is incurred. There is overwhelming evidence that the water has evolved within the Carboniferous Limestone formation, although the chemistry alone cannot pinpoint the geometry of the recharge area or circulation route. For a likely residence time of 1–12 kyr, volumetric calculations imply a large storage volume and circulation pathway if typical porosities of the limestone at depth are used, indicating that much of the Bath-Bristol basin must be involved in the water storage.

Factors influencing subjective quality of life in patients with schizophrenia and other mental disorders: a pooled analysis

Subjective quality of life (SQOL) is an important outcome in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia. However, there is only limited evidence on factors influencing SQOL, and little is known about whether the same factors influence SQOL in patients with schizophrenia and other mental disorders. This study aimed to identify the factors associated with SQOL and test whether these factors are equally important in schizophrenia and other disorders. For this we used a pooled data set obtained from 16 studies that had used either the Lancashire Quality of Life Profile or the Manchester Short Assessment of Quality of Life for assessing SQOL. The sample comprised 3936 patients with schizophrenia, mood disorders, and neurotic disorders. After controlling for confounding factors, within-subject clustering, and heterogeneity of findings across studies in linear mixed models, patients with schizophrenia had more favourable SQOL scores than those with mood and neurotic disorders. In all diagnostic groups, older patients, those in employment, and those with lower symptom scores had higher SQOL scores. Whilst the strength of the association between age and SQOL did not differ across diagnostic groups, symptom levels were more strongly associated with SQOL in neurotic than in mood disorders and schizophrenia. The association of employment and SQOL was stronger in mood and neurotic disorders than in schizophrenia. The findings may inform the use and interpretation of SQOL data for patients with schizophrenia.

One-year bacterial colonization patterns of Staphylococcus aureus and other bacteria at implants and adjacent teeth

AIMS: (i) To assess the pattern of early bacterial colonization on titanium oral implants after installation, at 12 weeks and at 12 months, (ii) to compare the microbiota at submucosal implant sites and adjacent subgingival tooth sites and (iii) to assess whether or not early colonization was predictive of 12-month colonization patterns. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Submucosal/subgingival plaque samples from 17 titanium oral implants and adjacent teeth were analyzed by checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization 30 min, 12 weeks and 12 months after implant installation. RESULTS: At 12 months, none of the inserted implants had been lost or presented with signs of peri-implantitis. The distribution of sites at implants and teeth with bleeding on probing varied between 2% and 11%. Probing pocket depths < or =3 mm were found at 75% of implant sites. At 12 months, the sum of the bacterial counts of 40 species was statistically significantly higher at tooth compared with implant sites (mean difference: 34.4 x 10(5), 95% confidence interval -0.4 to 69.4, P<0.05). At 12 months, higher individual bacterial counts at tooth sites were found for 7/40 species compared with implant sites. Detection or lack of detection of Staphylococcus aureus at implant sites at 12 weeks resulted in the highest positive (e.g. 80%) and negative (e.g. 90%) predictive values, respectively. Between 12 weeks and 12 months, the prevalence of Tannerella forsythia increased statistically significantly at implant sites (P<0.05). Lack of detection of Porphyromonas gingivalis at 12 weeks yielded a negative predictive value of 93.1% of this microorganism being undetectable at implant sites at 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: Within the limits of this study, the findings showed (i) a few differences in the prevalence of bacterial species between implant and adjacent tooth sites at 12 months and (ii) high positive and negative predictive values for selected bacterial species.

Self-burning – A rare suicide method in switzerland and other industrialised nations – A review

News items reporting self-immolation by Tibetans have been on the increase in recent years. After examining the corpse of a Swiss man who had committed suicide by deliberate self-burning, we wondered how often this occurs in Switzerland. The Federal Statistics Office (FSO) does not register self-burning specifically so no official national data on this form of suicide are available. However, we had access to the data from a Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) project Suicides in Switzerland between 2000 and 2010, which collected information on all (4885) cases of suicide investigated by the various institutes of forensic medicine. From this data pool we extracted 50 cases (1.02%) of suicide by selfburning, in order to determine the details and to identify the possible reasons for choosing this method. To look at our results in the light of studies from other countries, we searched the literature for studies that had also retrospectively examined suicide by self-immolation based on forensic records. Our results showed that, on the whole, personal aspects of selfburning in Switzerland do not differ from those in other industrialised nations. Some data, including religious and sociocultural background, were unfortunately missing – not only from our study but also from the similar ones. In our opinion, the most important prevention strategy is to make healthcare professionals more aware of this rare method of suicide.

Panels of cytokines and other secretory proteins as potential biomarkers of ovarian endometriosis.

Endometriosis is a gynecologic disease that is characterized by nonspecific symptoms and invasive diagnostics. To date, there is no adequate noninvasive method for the diagnosis of endometriosis. Although more than 100 potential biomarkers have been investigated in blood and/or peritoneal fluid, none of these has proven useful in clinical practice. The aim to find a suitable panel of biomarkers that would allow noninvasive diagnosis thus remains of interest. We evaluated the concentrations of 16 cytokines and other secretory proteins in serum and peritoneal fluid of 58 women with ovarian endometriosis (cases) and 40 healthy women undergoing sterilization or patients with benign ovarian cysts (controls) using multiplexed double fluorescence-based immunometric assay platform and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Significantly higher concentrations of glycodelin-A were shown in serum, and significantly higher levels of glycodelin-A, IL-6, and IL-8, and lower levels of leptin were measured in the peritoneal fluid of cases versus controls. In serum, the best performance was shown by models that included the ratio of leptin/glycodelin-A and the ratio of ficolin 2/glycodelin-A, whereas in the peritoneal fluid the best models included the ratio of biglycan/leptin, regulated on activation normal T-cell expressed and secreted/IL-6 and ficolin-2/glycodelin-A, and IL-8 per milligram of total protein, all in combination with age. The models using serum and peritoneal fluid distinguished between ovarian endometriosis patients and controls regardless of the menstrual cycle phase with relatively high sensitivity (72.5% to 84.2%), specificity (78.4% to 91.2%), and area under the curve (0.85 to 0.90).

Incidence of AIDS-Defining and Other Cancers in HIV-Positive Children in South Africa: Record Linkage Study.

BACKGROUND Little is known on the risk of cancer in HIV-positive children in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined incidence and risk factors of AIDS-defining and other cancers in pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in South Africa. METHODS We linked the records of five ART programs in Johannesburg and Cape Town to those of pediatric oncology units, based on name and surname, date of birth, folder and civil identification numbers. We calculated incidence rates and obtained hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) from Cox regression models including ART, sex, age, and degree of immunodeficiency. Missing CD4 counts and CD4% were multiply imputed. Immunodeficiency was defined according to World Health Organization 2005 criteria. RESULTS Data of 11,707 HIV-positive children were included in the analysis. During 29,348 person-years of follow-up 24 cancers were diagnosed, for an incidence rate of 82 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 55-122). The most frequent cancers were Kaposi Sarcoma (34 per 100,000 person-years) and Non Hodgkin Lymphoma (31 per 100,000 person-years). The incidence of non AIDS-defining malignancies was 17 per 100,000. The risk of developing cancer was lower on ART (HR 0.29, 95%CI 0.09-0.86), and increased with age at enrolment (>10 versus <3 years: HR 7.3, 95% CI 2.2-24.6) and immunodeficiency at enrolment (advanced/severe versus no/mild: HR 3.5, 95%CI 1.1-12.0). The HR for the effect of ART from complete case analysis was similar but ceased to be statistically significant (p=0.078). CONCLUSIONS Early HIV diagnosis and linkage to care, with start of ART before advanced immunodeficiency develops, may substantially reduce the burden of cancer in HIV-positive children in South Africa and elsewhere.

Role of FGFRL1 and other FGF signaling proteins in early kidney development

The mammalian kidney develops from the ureteric bud and the metanephric mesenchyme. In mice, the ureteric bud invades the metanephric mesenchyme at day E10.5 and begins to branch. The tips of the ureteric bud induce the metanephric mesenchyme to condense and form the cap mesenchyme. Some cells of this cap mesenchyme undergo a mesenchymal-to-epithelial transition and differentiate into renal vesicles, which further develop into nephrons. The developing kidney expresses Fibroblast growth factor (Fgf)1, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 and 20 and Fgf receptors Fgfr1 and Fgfr2. Fgf7 and Fgf10, mainly secreted by the metanephric mesenchyme, bind to Fgfr2b of the ureteric bud and induce branching. Fgfr1 and Fgfr2c are required for formation of the metanephric mesenchyme, however the two receptors can substitute for one another. Fgf8, secreted by renal vesicles, binds to Fgfr1 and supports survival of cells in the nascent nephrons. Fgf9 and Fgf20, expressed in the metanephric mesenchyme, are necessary to maintain survival of progenitor cells in the cortical region of the kidney. FgfrL1 is a novel member of the Fgfr family that lacks the intracellular tyrosine kinase domain. It is expressed in the ureteric bud and all nephrogenic structures. Targeted deletion of FgfrL1 leads to severe kidney dysgenesis due to the lack of renal vesicles. FgfrL1 is known to interact mainly with Fgf8. It is therefore conceivable that FgfrL1 restricts signaling of Fgf8 to the precise location of the nascent nephrons. It might also promote tight adhesion of cells in the condensed metanephric mesenchyme as required for the mesenchymal-to-epithelial transition.

Primary care physician supply and other key determinants of health care utilisation: The case of Switzerland

Background The Swiss government decided to freeze new accreditations for physicians in private practice in Switzerland based on the assumption that demand-induced health care spending may be cut by limiting care offers. This legislation initiated an ongoing controversial public debate in Switzerland. The aim of this study is therefore the determination of socio-demographic and health system-related factors of per capita consultation rates with primary care physicians in the multicultural population of Switzerland. Methods The data were derived from the complete claims data of Swiss health insurers for 2004 and included 21.4 million consultations provided by 6564 Swiss primary care physicians on a fee-for-service basis. Socio-demographic data were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Utilisation-based health service areas were created and were used as observational units for statistical procedures. Multivariate and hierarchical models were applied to analyze the data. Results Models within the study allowed the definition of 1018 primary care service areas with a median population of 3754 and an average per capita consultation rate of 2.95 per year. Statistical models yielded significant effects for various geographical, socio-demographic and cultural factors. The regional density of physicians in independent practice was also significantly associated with annual consultation rates and indicated an associated increase 0.10 for each additional primary care physician in a population of 10,000 inhabitants. Considerable differences across Swiss language regions were observed with reference to the supply of ambulatory health resources provided either by primary care physicians, specialists, or hospital-based ambulatory care. Conclusion The study documents a large small-area variation in utilisation and provision of health care resources in Switzerland. Effects of physician density appeared to be strongly related to Swiss language regions and may be rooted in the different cultural backgrounds of the served populations.

Staphylococcus aureus and other bacteria in untreated periodontitis

Whether the subgingival microbiota differ between individuals with chronic and those with aggressive periodontitis, and whether smoking influences bacterial composition, is controversial. We hypothesized that the subgingival microbiota do not differ between sites in individuals with chronic or aggressive periodontitis, or by smoking status. Bacterial counts and proportional distributions were assessed in 84 individuals with chronic periodontitis and 22 with aggressive periodontitis. No differences in probing pocket depth by periodontal status were found (mean, 0.11 mm; 95% CI, 0.6 to 0.8, p = 0.74). Including Staphylococcus aureus, Parvimonas micra, and Prevotella intermedia, 7/40 species were found at higher levels in those with aggressive periodontitis (p < 0.001). Smokers had higher counts of Tannerella forsythia (p < 0.01). The prevalence of S. aureus in non-smokers with aggressive periodontitis was 60.5%. The null hypothesis was rejected, in that P. intermedia, S. aureus, and S. mutans were robust in diagnosing sites in individuals with aggressive periodontitis. S. aureus, S. sanguinis, and T. forsythia differentiated smoking status.

[Of calabash gourds and other patient histories]

In the culture of primal peoples, the dumbbell-shaped bottle gourd or calabash is a symbol for the universe, two equal halves inextricably linked. They represent heaven and earth, Yin and Yang--balance and harmony. This essay reflects personal memories, where case histories, patient stories and a doctor's story are intertwined.

Major histocompatibility complex and other allergy-related candidate genes associated with insect bite hypersensitivity in Icelandic horses

Insect bite hypersensitivity (IBH) is an allergic dermatitis of horses caused by bites of insects. IBH is a multifactorial disease with contribution of genetic and environmental factors. Candidate gene association analysis of IBH was performed in a group of 89 Icelandic horses all born in Iceland and imported to Europe. Horses were classified in IBH-affected and non-affected based on clinical signs and history of recurrent dermatitis, and on the results of an in vitro sulfidoleukotriene (sLT)-release assay with Culicoides nubeculosus and Simulium vittatum extract. Different genetic markers were tested for association with IBH by the Fisher's exact test. The effect of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) gene region was studied by genotyping five microsatellites spanning the MHC region (COR112, COR113, COR114, UM011 and UMN-JH34-2), and exon 2 polymorphisms of the class II Eqca-DRA gene. Associations with Eqca-DRA and COR113 were identified (p < 0.05). In addition, a panel of 20 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 17 candidate allergy-related genes was tested. During the initial screen, no marker from the panel was significantly (p < 0.05) associated with IBH. Five SNPs associated with IBH at p < 0.10 were therefore used for analysis of combined genotypes. Out of them, SNPs located in the genes coding for the CD14 receptor (CD14), interleukin 23 receptor (IL23R), thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP) and transforming growth factor beta 3 (TGFB3) molecules were associated with IBH as parts of complex genotypes. These results are supported by similar associations and by expression data from different horse populations and from human studies.

Plotting regression coefficients and other estimates in Stata

Graphical presentation of regression results has become increasingly popular in the scientific literature, as graphs are much easier to read than tables in many cases. In Stata such plots can be produced by the -marginsplot- command. However, while -marginsplot- is very versatile and flexible, it has two major limitations: it can only process results left behind by -margins- and it can only handle one set of results at the time. In this article I introduce a new command called -coefplot- that overcomes these limitations. It plots results from any estimation command and combines results from several models into a single graph. The default behavior of -coefplot- is to plot markers for coefficients and horizontal spikes for confidence intervals. However, -coefplot- can also produce various other types of graphs. The capabilities of -coefplot- are illustrated in this article using a series of examples.

COEFPLOT: Stata module to plot regression coefficients and other results

coefplot plots results from estimation commands or Stata matrices. Results from multiple models or matrices can be combined in a single graph. The default behavior of coefplot is to draw markers for coefficients and horizontal spikes for confidence intervals. However, coefplot can also produce various other types of graphs.

Asking sensitive questions: Possibilities and limits of randomized response and other techniques in different survey modes

In our project within the DFG Priority Programme on Survey Methodology (SPP 1292) we conducted various methodological studies on survey techniques for asking sensitive questions. For example, we compared results from the randomized response technique (RRT) to true known data in a validation study, developed and evaluated implementations of the RRT for CATI and online mode, and compared the performance of the RRT to competing approaches. In our talk, we will give an overview of the studies conducted in this project and will present our key findings. Furthermore, we will identify open research questions and give guidelines for future research on asking sensitive questions.