Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Complications with computer-aided designed/computer-assisted manufactured titanium and soldered gold bars for mandibular implant-overdentures: short-term observations

BACKGROUND Implant-overdentures supported by rigid bars provide stability in the edentulous atrophic mandible. However, fractures of solder joints and matrices, and loosening of screws and matrices were observed with soldered gold bars (G-bars). Computer-aided designed/computer-assisted manufactured (CAD/CAM) titanium bars (Ti-bars) may reduce technical complications due to enhanced material quality. PURPOSE To compare prosthetic-technical maintenance service of mandibular implant-overdentures supported by CAD/CAM Ti-bar and soldered G-bar. MATERIALS AND METHODS Edentulous patients were consecutively admitted for implant-prosthodontic treatment with a maxillary complete denture and a mandibular implant-overdenture connected to a rigid G-bar or Ti-bar. Maintenance service and problems with the implant-retention device complex and the prosthesis were recorded during minimally 3-4 years. Annual peri-implant crestal bone level changes (ΔBIC) were radiographically assessed. RESULTS Data of 213 edentulous patients (mean age 68 ± 10 years), who had received a total of 477 tapered implants, were available. Ti-bar and G-bar comprised 101 and 112 patients with 231 and 246 implants, respectively. Ti-bar mostly exhibited distal bar extensions (96%) compared to 34% of G-bar (p < .001). Fracture rate of bars extensions (4.7% vs 14.8%, p < .001) and matrices (1% vs 13%, p < .001) was lower for Ti-bar. Matrices activation was required 2.4× less often in Ti-bar. ΔBIC remained stable for both groups. CONCLUSIONS Implant overdentures supported by soldered gold bars or milled CAD/CAM Ti-bars are a successful treatment modality but require regular maintenance service. These short-term observations support the hypothesis that CAD/CAM Ti-bars reduce technical complications. Fracture location indicated that the titanium thickness around the screw-access hole should be increased.