How stable are 20th century calibration models? A high-resolution summer temperature reconstruction for the eastern Swiss Alps back to A.D. 1580 derived from proglacial varved sediments

We found a significant positive correlation between local summer air temperature (May-September) and the annual sediment mass accumulation rate (MAR) in Lake Silvaplana (46°N, 9°E, 1800 m a.s.l.) during the twentieth century (r = 0.69, p < 0.001 for decadal smoothed series). Sediment trap data (2001-2005) confirm this relation with exceptionally high particle yields during the hottest summer of the last 140 years in 2003. On this base we developed a decadal-scale summer temperature reconstruction back to AD 1580. Surprisingly, the comparison of our reconstruction with two other independent regional summer temperature reconstructions (based on tree-rings and documentary data) revealed a significant negative correlation for the pre-1900 data (ie, late ‘Little Ice Age’). This demonstrates that the correlation between MAR and summer temperature is not stable in time and the actualistic principle does not apply in this case. We suggest that different climatic regimes (modern/‘Little Ice Age’) lead to changing state conditions in the catchment and thus to considerably different sediment transport mechanisms. Therefore, we calibrated our MAR data with gridded early instrumental temperature series from AD 1760-1880 (r = -0.48, p < 0.01 for decadal smoothed series) to properly reconstruct the late LIA climatic conditions. We found exceptionally low temperatures between AD 1580 and 1610 (0.75°C below twentieth-century mean) and during the late Maunder Minimum from AD 1680 to 1710 (0.5°C below twentieth-century mean). In general, summer temperatures did not experience major negative departures from the twentieth-century mean during the late ‘Little Ice Age’. This compares well with the two existing independent regional reconstructions suggesting that the LIA in the Alps was mainly a phenomenon of the cold season.

Physical long-term health problems and mental comorbidity: evidence from Vietnam

OBJECTIVE: The mental health of children living in low-income countries remains a neglected research area despite the high burden of disease. This study is one of the first that examines the effects of long-term physical health problems on child mental health disorders in a low-income country and investigates whether this association is modified by the socio-economic status of the child's family. METHODS: Community-based cross-sectional survey of 975 eight-year-old children from 20 sites in Vietnam. Long-term physical health problems were measured by a caregiver report and included conditions such as anaemia, congenital malformation, physical disability and skin problems. Child mental disorders were assessed using the strengths and difficulties questionnaire (SDQ). Generalised estimating equations models were fitted to explore the association between long-term physical health problems and child mental disorders. RESULTS: Vietnamese children who suffer from long-term physical health problems have odds 2:1 times greater than children without long-term physical health problems of having a mental disorder (95% CI 1.2 to 3.6, p = 0.006). No significant interaction with socio-economic status was found. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed a high burden of mental disorders among physically ill children, re-enforcing the idea that there is "no health without mental health". While this association needs to be explored longitudinally, children with long-term health problems may be a visible group for targeted mental-health interventions.

Impact of low vision on well-being in 10 European countries

BACKGROUND: Because of the growing life expectancy in developed countries and the exponential increase in vision loss with increasing age, a growing number of elderly persons will eventually suffer from visual impairment and blindness. This paper describes the association between self-reported vision and well-being in individuals aged 50 years and older and their families. METHODS: Using binary logistic regressions on data from the 2004 Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we analysed the association between self-reported corrected vision in general, corrected distance vision and corrected reading vision on 11 variables capturing emotional well-being, future hopes and perspectives, and concentration on daily activities. RESULTS: For 22,486 individuals from 10 European countries, aged 64.23 +/- 10.52 years, lower vision was associated with a highly significant negative impact on all measured aspects of well-being. CONCLUSIONS: These data from a large population base in Europe provide evidence that persons with low vision have a higher probability of concentration problems during reading and entertainment; losing interest and enjoyment in their activities; feeling fatigued, irritable, sad, and tearful; having less hope for the future; and wishing for death. Effective measures of early detection, prevention, rehabilitation, education and research, as well as a holistic view of a patient, could help counter these problems, thereby improving mental and physical health and reducing the economic impact of low vision.

How scientific is the science in ethnopharmacology? Historical perspectives and epistemological problems

This commentary is based on a general concern regarding the low level of self-criticism (-evaluation) in the interpretation of molecular pharmacological data published in ethnopharmacology-related journals. Reports on potentially new lead structures or pharmacological effects of medicinal plant extracts are mushrooming. At the same time, nonsense in bioassays is an increasing phenomenon in herbal medicine research. Only because a dataset is reproducible does not imply that it is meaningful. Currently, there are thousands of claims of pharmacological effects of medicinal plants and natural products. It is argued that claims to knowledge in ethnopharmacology, as in the exact sciences, should be rationally criticized if they have empirical content as it is the case with biochemical and pharmacological analyses. Here the major problem is the misemployment of the concentration-effect paradigm and the overinterpretation of data obtained in vitro. Given the almost exponential increase of scientific papers published it may be the moment to adapt to a falsificationist methodology.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections: observational study, systematic reviews and mathematical modelling

BACKGROUND Partner notification is essential to the comprehensive case management of sexually transmitted infections. Systematic reviews and mathematical modelling can be used to synthesise information about the effects of new interventions to enhance the outcomes of partner notification. OBJECTIVE To study the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs). DESIGN Secondary data analysis of clinical audit data; systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) published from 1 January 1966 to 31 August 2012 and of studies of health-related quality of life (HRQL) [MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Knowledge, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA)] published from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2011; static models of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness; and dynamic modelling studies to improve parameter estimation and examine effectiveness. SETTING General population and genitourinary medicine clinic attenders. PARTICIPANTS Heterosexual women and men. INTERVENTIONS Traditional partner notification by patient or provider referral, and new partner notification by expedited partner therapy (EPT) or its UK equivalent, accelerated partner therapy (APT). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Population prevalence; index case reinfection; and partners treated per index case. RESULTS Enhanced partner therapy reduced reinfection in index cases with curable STIs more than simple patient referral [risk ratio (RR) 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.89]. There are no randomised trials of APT. The median number of partners treated for chlamydia per index case in UK clinics was 0.60. The number of partners needed to treat to interrupt transmission of chlamydia was lower for casual than for regular partners. In dynamic model simulations, > 10% of partners are chlamydia positive with look-back periods of up to 18 months. In the presence of a chlamydia screening programme that reduces population prevalence, treatment of current partners achieves most of the additional reduction in prevalence attributable to partner notification. Dynamic model simulations show that cotesting and treatment for chlamydia and gonorrhoea reduce the prevalence of both STIs. APT has a limited additional effect on prevalence but reduces the rate of index case reinfection. Published quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) weights were of insufficient quality to be used in a cost-effectiveness study of partner notification in this project. Using an intermediate outcome of cost per infection diagnosed, doubling the efficacy of partner notification from 0.4 to 0.8 partners treated per index case was more cost-effective than increasing chlamydia screening coverage. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence to support the improved clinical effectiveness of EPT in reducing index case reinfection. In a general heterosexual population, partner notification identifies new infected cases but the impact on chlamydia prevalence is limited. Partner notification to notify casual partners might have a greater impact than for regular partners in genitourinary clinic populations. Recommendations for future research are (1) to conduct randomised controlled trials using biological outcomes of the effectiveness of APT and of methods to increase testing for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and STIs after APT; (2) collection of HRQL data should be a priority to determine QALYs associated with the sequelae of curable STIs; and (3) standardised parameter sets for curable STIs should be developed for mathematical models of STI transmission that are used for policy-making. FUNDING The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Effects of neonatal high-dose short-term glucocorticoid treatment on the lung: a morphologic and morphometric study in the rat

Glucocorticoids are often applied in neonatology and perinatology to fight the problems of respiratory distress and chronic lung disease. There are, however, many controversies regarding the adverse side effects and long-term clinical benefits of this therapeutic approach. In rats, glucocorticoids are known to seriously impair the formation of alveoli when applied during the first two postnatal weeks even at very low dosage. The current study investigates short-term and long-term glucocorticoid effects on the rat lung by means of morphologic and morphometric observations at light and electron microscopic levels. Application of a high-dosage protocol for only few days resulted in a marked acceleration of lung development with a precocious microvascular maturation resulting in single capillary network septa in the first 4 postnatal days. By postnatal d 10, the lung morphologic phenotype showed a step back in the maturational state, with an increased number of septa with double capillary layer, followed by an exceptional second round of the alveolarization process. As a result of this process, there was an almost complete recovery in the parenchymal lung structure by postnatal d 36, and by d 60, there were virtually no qualitative or quantitative differences between experimental and control rats. These findings indicate that both dosage and duration of glucocorticoid therapy in the early postnatal period are very critical with respect to lung development and maturation and that a careful therapeutic strategy can minimize late sequelae of treatment.

On low-dimensional projections of high-dimensional distributions

Let P be a probability distribution on q -dimensional space. The so-called Diaconis-Freedman effect means that for a fixed dimension d<

Clinical outcomes of patients with low-flow, low-gradient, severe aortic stenosis and either preserved or reduced ejection fraction undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation

AIMS Our aim was to evaluate the invasive haemodynamic indices of high-risk symptomatic patients presenting with 'paradoxical' low-flow, low-gradient, severe aortic stenosis (AS) (PLF-LG) and low-flow, low-gradient severe AS (LEF-LG) and to compare clinical outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) among these challenging AS subgroups. METHODS AND RESULTS Of 534 symptomatic patients undergoing TAVI, 385 had a full pre-procedural right and left heart catheterization. A total of 208 patients had high-gradient severe AS [HGAS; mean gradient (MG) ≥40 mmHg], 85 had PLF-LG [MG ≤ 40 mmHg, indexed aortic valve area [iAVA] ≤0.6 cm(2) m(-2), stroke volume index ≤35 mL/m(2), ejection fraction (EF) ≥50%], and 61 had LEF-LG (MG ≤ 40 mmHg, iAVA ≤0.6 cm(2) m(-2), EF ≤40%). Compared with HGAS, PLF-LG and LEF-LG had higher systemic vascular resistances (HGAS: 1912 ± 654 vs. PLF-LG 2006 ± 586 vs. LEF-LG 2216 ± 765 dyne s m(-5), P = 0.007) but lower valvulo-arterial impedances (HGAS: 7.8 ± 2.7 vs. PLF-LG 6.9 ± 1.9 vs. LEF-LG 7.7 ± 2.5 mmHg mL(-1) m(-2), P = 0.027). At 30 days, no differences in cardiac death (6.5 vs. 4.9 vs. 6.6%, P = 0.90) or death (8.4 vs. 6.1 vs. 6.6%, P = 0.88) were observed among HGAS, PLF-LG, and LEF-LG groups, respectively. At 1 year, New York Heart Association functional improvement occurred in most surviving patients (HGAS: 69.2% vs. PLF-LG 71.7% vs. LEF-LG 89.3%, P = 0.09) and no significant differences in overall mortality were observed (17.6 vs. 20.5 vs. 24.5%, P = 0.67). Compared with HGAS, LEF-LG had a higher 1 year cardiac mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 2.45, 95% confidence interval 1.04-5.75, P = 0.04). CONCLUSION TAVI in PLF-LG or LEF-LG patients is associated with overall mortality rates comparable with HGAS patients and all groups profit symptomatically to a similar extent.

Immunodeficiency at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy in low-, middle-, and high-income countries

OBJECTIVE To describe the CD4 cell count at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in low-income (LIC), lower middle-income (LMIC), upper middle-income (UMIC), and high-income (HIC) countries. METHODS Patients aged 16 years or older starting cART in a clinic participating in a multicohort collaboration spanning 6 continents (International epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS and ART Cohort Collaboration) were eligible. Multilevel linear regression models were adjusted for age, gender, and calendar year; missing CD4 counts were imputed. RESULTS In total, 379,865 patients from 9 LIC, 4 LMIC, 4 UMIC, and 6 HIC were included. In LIC, the median CD4 cell count at cART initiation increased by 83% from 80 to 145 cells/μL between 2002 and 2009. Corresponding increases in LMIC, UMIC, and HIC were from 87 to 155 cells/μL (76% increase), 88 to 135 cells/μL (53%), and 209 to 274 cells/μL (31%). In 2009, compared with LIC, median counts were 13 cells/μL [95% confidence interval (CI): -56 to +30] lower in LMIC, 22 cells/μL (-62 to +18) lower in UMIC, and 112 cells/μL (+75 to +149) higher in HIC. They were 23 cells/μL (95% CI: +18 to +28 cells/μL) higher in women than men. Median counts were 88 cells/μL (95% CI: +35 to +141 cells/μL) higher in countries with an estimated national cART coverage >80%, compared with countries with <40% coverage. CONCLUSIONS Median CD4 cell counts at the start of cART increased 2000-2009 but remained below 200 cells/μL in LIC and MIC and below 300 cells/μL in HIC. Earlier start of cART will require substantial efforts and resources globally.

Impact of a 4th generation iterative reconstruction technique on image quality in low-dose computed tomography of the chest in immunocompromised patients

PURPOSE To determine the image quality of an iterative reconstruction (IR) technique in low-dose MDCT (LDCT) of the chest of immunocompromised patients in an intraindividual comparison to filtered back projection (FBP) and to evaluate the dose reduction capability. MATERIALS AND METHODS 30 chest LDCT scans were performed in immunocompromised patients (Brilliance iCT; 20-40 mAs; mean CTDIvol: 1.7 mGy). The raw data were reconstructed using FBP and the IR technique (iDose4™, Philips, Best, The Netherlands) set to seven iteration levels. 30 routine-dose MDCT (RDCT) reconstructed with FBP served as controls (mean exposure: 116 mAs; mean CDTIvol: 7.6 mGy). Three blinded radiologists scored subjective image quality and lesion conspicuity. Quantitative parameters including CT attenuation and objective image noise (OIN) were determined. RESULTS In LDCT high iDose4™ levels lead to a significant decrease in OIN (FBP vs. iDose7: subscapular muscle 139.4 vs. 40.6 HU). The high iDose4™ levels provided significant improvements in image quality and artifact and noise reduction compared to LDCT FBP images. The conspicuity of subtle lesions was limited in LDCT FBP images. It significantly improved with high iDose4™ levels (> iDose4). LDCT with iDose4™ level 6 was determined to be of equivalent image quality as RDCT with FBP. CONCLUSION iDose4™ substantially improves image quality and lesion conspicuity and reduces noise in low-dose chest CT. Compared to RDCT, high iDose4™ levels provide equivalent image quality in LDCT, hence suggesting a potential dose reduction of almost 80%.

Impact of mitral regurgitation on clinical outcomes of patients with low-ejection fraction, low-gradient severe aortic stenosis undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

BACKGROUND Up to 1 in 6 patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) present with low-ejection fraction, low-gradient (LEF-LG) severe aortic stenosis and concomitant relevant mitral regurgitation (MR) is present in 30% to 55% of these patients. The effect of MR on clinical outcomes of LEF-LG patients undergoing TAVI is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS Of 606 consecutive patients undergoing TAVI, 113 (18.7%) patients with LEF-LG severe aortic stenosis (mean gradient ≤40 mm Hg, aortic valve area <1.0 cm(2), left ventricular ejection fraction <50%) were analyzed. LEF-LG patients were dichotomized into ≤mild MR (n=52) and ≥moderate MR (n=61). Primary end point was all-cause mortality at 1 year. No differences in mortality were observed at 30 days (P=0.76). At 1 year, LEF-LG patients with ≥moderate MR had an adjusted 3-fold higher rate of all-cause mortality (11.5% versus 38.1%; adjusted hazard ratio, 3.27 [95% confidence interval, 1.31-8.15]; P=0.011), as compared with LEF-LG patients with ≤mild MR. Mortality was mainly driven by cardiac death (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.62; P=0.005). As compared with LEF-LG patients with ≥moderate MR assigned to medical therapy, LEF-LG patients with ≥moderate MR undergoing TAVI had significantly lower all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.019-0.75) at 1 year. CONCLUSIONS Moderate or severe MR is a strong independent predictor of late mortality in LEF-LG patients undergoing TAVI. However, LEF-LG patients assigned to medical therapy have a dismal prognosis independent of MR severity suggesting that TAVI should not be withheld from symptomatic patients with LEF-LG severe aortic stenosis even in the presence of moderate or severe MR.

Immunodeficiency in children starting antiretroviral therapy in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND The CD4 cell count or percent (CD4%) at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is an important prognostic factor in children starting therapy and an important indicator of program performance. We describe trends and determinants of CD4 measures at cART initiation in children from low-, middle-, and high-income countries. METHODS We included children aged <16 years from clinics participating in a collaborative study spanning sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the United States. Missing CD4 values at cART start were estimated through multiple imputation. Severe immunodeficiency was defined according to World Health Organization criteria. Analyses used generalized additive mixed models adjusted for age, country, and calendar year. RESULTS A total of 34,706 children from 9 low-income, 6 lower middle-income, 4 upper middle-income countries, and 1 high-income country (United States) were included; 20,624 children (59%) had severe immunodeficiency. In low-income countries, the estimated prevalence of children starting cART with severe immunodeficiency declined from 76% in 2004 to 63% in 2010. Corresponding figures for lower middle-income countries were from 77% to 66% and for upper middle-income countries from 75% to 58%. In the United States, the percentage decreased from 42% to 19% during the period 1996 to 2006. In low- and middle-income countries, infants and children aged 12-15 years had the highest prevalence of severe immunodeficiency at cART initiation. CONCLUSIONS Despite progress in most low- and middle-income countries, many children continue to start cART with severe immunodeficiency. Early diagnosis and treatment of HIV-infected children to prevent morbidity and mortality associated with immunodeficiency must remain a global public health priority.

Plate fixation of extra-articular fractures of the proximal phalanx: do new implants cause less problems?

BACKGROUND Limited range of finger motion is a frequent complication after plate fixation of phalangeal fractures. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the results of plate fixation of extra-articular fractures of the proximal phalanx using current low-profile mini-fragment-systems. METHODS From 2006 to 2012, 32 patients with 36 extra-articular fractures of the proximal phalanx of the triphalangeal fingers were treated with open reduction and plate fixation (ORPF) using 1.2 and 1.5 mm mini-fragment systems. Patients presenting with open fractures grade 2 and 3 or relevant laceration of adjacent structures were excluded from the study. We retrospectively evaluated the rate of mal-union or non-union after ORPF, the need for revision surgery, for plate removal, and for tenolysis. Data were analyzed for further complications with regard to infections or complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS). RESULTS No infections were noted. Five patients developed transient symptoms of CRPS. Six weeks postoperatively, total active finger motion (TAM) averaged 183°, and all 32 patients underwent formal hand therapy. At the latest follow-up or at the time of plate removal, respectively, the mean TAM improved to 213°. Extension lag of proximal interphalangeal joints was found in 67 % of all fractured fingers. Secondary surgery was necessary in 14 of 32 patients (2 corrective osteotomies, 12 plate removals including 7 procedures explicitly because of reduced mobility). CONCLUSIONS Despite of new implant designs significant problems persist. Adhesions of extensor tendons leading to limited range of finger motion are still the most frequent complications after ORPF of proximal phalangeal fractures, even in absence of significant soft-tissue damage. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Therapeutic, Retrospective, Level IV.

Benchmark problems for reactive transport modeling of the generation and attenuation of acid rock drainage

Acid rock drainage (ARD) is a problem of international relevance with substantial environmental and economic implications. Reactive transport modeling has proven a powerful tool for the process-based assessment of metal release and attenuation at ARD sites. Although a variety of models has been used to investigate ARD, a systematic model intercomparison has not been conducted to date. This contribution presents such a model intercomparison involving three synthetic benchmark problems designed to evaluate model results for the most relevant processes at ARD sites. The first benchmark (ARD-B1) focuses on the oxidation of sulfide minerals in an unsaturated tailing impoundment, affected by the ingress of atmospheric oxygen. ARD-B2 extends the first problem to include pH buffering by primary mineral dissolution and secondary mineral precipitation. The third problem (ARD-B3) in addition considers the kinetic and pH-dependent dissolution of silicate minerals under low pH conditions. The set of benchmarks was solved by four reactive transport codes, namely CrunchFlow, Flotran, HP1, and MIN3P. The results comparison focused on spatial profiles of dissolved concentrations, pH and pE, pore gas composition, and mineral assemblages. In addition, results of transient profiles for selected elements and cumulative mass loadings were considered in the intercomparison. Despite substantial differences in model formulations, very good agreement was obtained between the various codes. Residual deviations between the results are analyzed and discussed in terms of their implications for capturing system evolution and long-term mass loading predictions.

The J-curve in HIV: low and moderate alcohol intake predicts mortality but not the occurrence of major cardiovascular events.

OBJECTIVES In HIV-negative populations light to moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower cardiovascular morbidity and mortality than alcohol abstention. Whether the same holds true for HIV-infected individuals has not been evaluated in detail. DESIGN Cohort study METHODS:: Adults on antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with follow-up after August 2005 were included. We categorized alcohol consumption into: abstention, low (1-9 g/d), moderate (10-29 g/d in females and 10-39g/d in men) and high alcohol intake. Cox proportional hazards models were used to describe the association between alcohol consumption and cardiovascular disease free survival (combined endpoint) as well as cardiovascular disease events (CADE) and overall survival. Baseline and time-updated risk factors for CADE were included in the models. RESULTS Among 9,741 individuals included, there were 788 events of major CADE or death during 46,719 years of follow-up, corresponding to an incidence of 1.69 events/100 person-years. Follow-up according to alcohol consumption level was 51% abstention, 20% low, 23% moderate and 6% high intake. As compared to abstention, low (hazard ratio 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.63-0.98) and moderate alcohol intake (0.78, 0.64-0.95) were associated with a lower incidence of the combined endpoint. There was no significant association between alcohol consumption and CADE. CONCLUSIONS Compared to abstention, low and moderate alcohol intake were associated with a better CADE-free survival. However, this result was mainly driven by mortality and the specific impact of drinking patterns and type of alcoholic beverage on this outcome remains to be determined.