Outcomes of Active Surveillance for Ductal Carcinoma in Situ: A Computational Risk Analysis.

BACKGROUND Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a noninvasive breast lesion with uncertain risk for invasive progression. Usual care (UC) for DCIS consists of treatment upon diagnosis, thus potentially overtreating patients with low propensity for progression. One strategy to reduce overtreatment is active surveillance (AS), whereby DCIS is treated only upon detection of invasive disease. Our goal was to perform a quantitative evaluation of outcomes following an AS strategy for DCIS. METHODS Age-stratified, 10-year disease-specific cumulative mortality (DSCM) for AS was calculated using a computational risk projection model based upon published estimates for natural history parameters, and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data for outcomes. AS projections were compared with the DSCM for patients who received UC. To quantify the propagation of parameter uncertainty, a 95% projection range (PR) was computed, and sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS Under the assumption that AS cannot outperform UC, the projected median differences in 10-year DSCM between AS and UC when diagnosed at ages 40, 55, and 70 years were 2.6% (PR = 1.4%-5.1%), 1.5% (PR = 0.5%-3.5%), and 0.6% (PR = 0.0%-2.4), respectively. Corresponding median numbers of patients needed to treat to avert one breast cancer death were 38.3 (PR = 19.7-69.9), 67.3 (PR = 28.7-211.4), and 157.2 (PR = 41.1-3872.8), respectively. Sensitivity analyses showed that the parameter with greatest impact on DSCM was the probability of understaging invasive cancer at diagnosis. CONCLUSION AS could be a viable management strategy for carefully selected DCIS patients, particularly among older age groups and those with substantial competing mortality risks. The effectiveness of AS could be markedly improved by reducing the rate of understaging.

Trends in Treatment Patterns and Outcomes for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ

BACKGROUND Impact of contemporary treatment of pre-invasive breast cancer (ductal carcinoma in situ [DCIS]) on long-term outcomes remains poorly defined. We aimed to evaluate national treatment trends for DCIS and to determine their impact on disease-specific (DSS) and overall survival (OS). METHODS The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry was queried for patients diagnosed with DCIS from 1991 to 2010. Treatment pattern trends were analyzed using Cochran-Armitage trend test. Survival analyses were performed using inverse probability weights (IPW)-adjusted competing risk analyses for DSS and Cox proportional hazard regression for OS. All tests performed were two-sided. RESULTS One hundred twenty-one thousand and eighty DCIS patients were identified. The greatest proportion of patients was treated with lumpectomy and radiation therapy (43.0%), followed by lumpectomy alone (26.5%) and unilateral (23.8%) or bilateral mastectomy (4.5%) with significant shifts over time. The rate of sentinel lymph node biopsy increased from 9.7% to 67.1% for mastectomy and from 1.4% to 17.8% for lumpectomy. Compared with mastectomy, OS was higher for lumpectomy with radiation (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.76 to 0.83, P < .001) and lower for lumpectomy alone (HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.23, P < .001). IPW-adjusted ten-year DSS was highest in lumpectomy with XRT (98.9%), followed by mastectomy (98.5%), and lumpectomy alone (98.4%). CONCLUSIONS We identified substantial shifts in treatment patterns for DCIS from 1991 to 2010. When outcomes between locoregional treatment options were compared, we observed greater differences in OS than DSS, likely reflecting both a prevailing patient selection bias as well as clinically negligible differences in breast cancer outcomes between groups.

Viscous-Flow Approach to In Situ Infiltration and In Vitro Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity Determination

Infiltration is dominantly gravity driven, and a viscous-flow approach was developed. Laminar film flow equilibrates gravity with the viscous force and a constant flow velocity evolves during a period lasting 3/2 times the duration of a constant input rate, qS. Film thickness F and the specific contact area L of the film per unit soil volume are the key parameters. Sprinkler irrigation produced in situ time series of volumetric water contents, θ(z,t), as determined with TDR probes. The wetting front velocity v and the time series of the mobile water content, w(z,t) were deduced from θ(z,t). In vitro steady flow in a core of saturated soil provided volume flux density, q(z,t), and flow velocity, v, as determined from a heat front velocity. The F and L parameters of the in situ and the in vitro experiments were compared. The macropore-flow restriction states that, for a particular permeable medium, the specific contact area L must be independent from qS i.e., dL/dqS = 0. If true, then the relationship of qS ∝ v3/2 could scale a wide range of input rates 0 ≤ qS ≤ saturated hydraulic conductivity, Ksat, into a permeable medium, and kinematic-wave theory would become a versatile tool to deal with non-equilibrium flow. The viscous-flow approach is based on hydromechanical principles similar to Darcy’s law, but currently it is not suited to deduce flow properties from specified individual spatial structures of permeable media.

Dating prograde fluid pulses during subduction by in situ U–Pb and oxygen isotope analysis

Keywords High-pressure fluids · Whiteschists · U–Pb dating · Oxygen isotopes · Ion microprobe · Metasomatism Introduction The subduction of crustal material to mantle depths and its chemical modification during burial and exhumation contribute to element recycling in the mantle and the formation of new crust through arc magmatism. Crustal rocks that Abstract The Dora-Maira whiteschists derive from metasomatically altered granites that experienced ultrahighpressure metamorphism at ~750 °C and 40 kbar during the Alpine orogeny. In order to investigate the P–T–time– fluid evolution of the whiteschists, we obtained U–Pb ages from zircon and monazite and combined those with trace element composition and oxygen isotopes of the accessory minerals and coexisting garnet. Zircon cores are the only remnants of the granitic protolith and still preserve a Permian age, magmatic trace element compositions and δ18O of ~10 ‰. Thermodynamic modelling of Si-rich and Si-poor whiteschist compositions shows that there are two main fluid pulses during prograde subduction between 20 and 40 kbar. In Si-poor samples, the breakdown of chlorite to garnet + fluid occurs at ~22 kbar. A first zircon rim directly overgrowing the cores has inclusions of prograde phlogopite and HREE-enriched patterns indicating zircon growth at the onset of garnet formation. A second main fluid pulse is documented close to peak metamorphic conditions in both Si-rich and Si-poor whiteschist when talc + kyanite react to garnet + coesite + fluid. A second metamorphic overgrowth on zircon with HREE depletion was observed in the Si-poor whiteschists, whereas a single metamorphic overgrowth capturing phengite and talc inclusions was observed in the Si-rich whiteschists. Garnet rims, zircon rims and monazite are in chemical and isotopic equilibrium for oxygen, demonstrating that they all formed at peak metamorphism at 35 Ma as constrained by the age of monazite (34.7 ± 0.4 Ma) and zircon rims (35.1 ± 0.8 Ma). The prograde zircon rim in Si-poor whiteschists has an age that is within error indistinguishable from the age of peak metamorphic conditions, consistent with a minimum rate of subduction of 2 cm/year for the Dora-Maira unit. Oxygen isotope values for zircon rims, monazite and garnet are equal within error at 6.4 ± 0.4 ‰, which is in line with closed-system equilibrium fractionation during prograde to peak temperatures. The resulting equilibrium Δ18Ozircon-monazite at 700 ± 20 °C is 0.1 ± 0.7 ‰. The in situ oxygen isotope data argue against an externally derived input of fluids into the whiteschists. Instead, fluidassisted zircon and monazite recrystallisation can be linked to internal dehydration reactions during prograde subduction. We propose that the major metasomatic event affecting the granite protolith was related to hydrothermal seafloor alteration post-dating Jurassic rifting, well before the onset of Alpine subduction.