Consistency of Concave Regression with an Application to Current-Status Data

We consider the problem of nonparametric estimation of a concave regression function F. We show that the supremum distance between the least square s estimatorand F on a compact interval is typically of order(log(n)/n)2/5. This entails rates of convergence for the estimator’s derivative. Moreover, we discuss the impact of additional constraints on F such as monotonicity and pointwise bounds. Then we apply these results to the analysis of current status data, where the distribution function of the event times is assumed to be concave.

Application of Local Rank Tests for Nonparametric Regression

Let Y_i = f(x_i) + E_i\ (1\le i\le n) with given covariates x_1\lt x_2\lt \cdots\lt x_n , an unknown regression function f and independent random errors E_i with median zero. It is shown how to apply several linear rank test statistics simultaneously in order to test monotonicity of f in various regions and to identify its local extrema.

Detecting outlying studies in meta-regression models using a forward search algorithm.

When considering data from many trials, it is likely that some of them present a markedly different intervention effect or exert an undue influence on the summary results. We develop a forward search algorithm for identifying outlying and influential studies in meta-analysis models. The forward search algorithm starts by fitting the hypothesized model to a small subset of likely outlier-free studies and proceeds by adding studies into the set one-by-one that are determined to be closest to the fitted model of the existing set. As each study is added to the set, plots of estimated parameters and measures of fit are monitored to identify outliers by sharp changes in the forward plots. We apply the proposed outlier detection method to two real data sets; a meta-analysis of 26 studies that examines the effect of writing-to-learn interventions on academic achievement adjusting for three possible effect modifiers, and a meta-analysis of 70 studies that compares a fluoride toothpaste treatment to placebo for preventing dental caries in children. A simple simulated example is used to illustrate the steps of the proposed methodology, and a small-scale simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Regression of coronary atherosclerosis: Current evidence and future perspectives

Coronary atherosclerosis has been considered a chronic disease characterized by ongoing progression in response to systemic risk factors and local pro-atherogenic stimuli. As our understanding of the pathobiological mechanisms implicated in atherogenesis and plaque progression is evolving, effective treatment strategies have been developed that led to substantial reduction of the clinical manifestations and acute complications of coronary atherosclerotic disease. More recently, intracoronary imaging modalities have enabled detailed in vivo quantification and characterization of coronary atherosclerotic plaque, serial evaluation of atherosclerotic changes over time, and assessment of vascular responses to effective anti-atherosclerotic medications. The use of intracoronary imaging modalities has demonstrated that intensive lipid lowering can halt plaque progression and may even result in regression of coronary atheroma when the highest doses of the most potent statins are used. While current evidence indicates the feasibility of atheroma regression and of reversal of presumed high-risk plaque characteristics in response to intensive anti-atherosclerotic therapies, these changes of plaque size and composition are modest and their clinical implications remain largely elusive. Growing interest has focused on achieving more pronounced regression of coronary plaque using novel anti-atherosclerotic medications, and more importantly on elucidating ways toward clinical translation of favorable changes of plaque anatomy into more favorable clinical outcomes for our patients.

[Spontaneous retropharyngeal hematoma with fatal outcome]

Halsschmerz, Dysphagie und Dyspnoe sind die häufigsten Symptomen, aufgrund derer Patienten einen Arzt aufsuchen. Hierbei handelt es sich um unspezifische Symptome mit vielfältigen Ursachen. Mögliche im Retropharyngealraum lokalisierte Pathologien sind in der überwiegenden Anzahl der Fälle selbst limitierend oder durch medikamentöse Therapien beherrschbar (Bsp.: Pharyngitis, Tonsillitis, Seitenstrangangina). Deutlich seltener sind im Spatium retropharyngeum lokalisierte Abszesse, Neoplasien (Bsp.: Lipome, Neurofibrome, Liposarkome) oder Hämatome (Schmäl F et al. HNO 2002; 50: 418 – 423). Letztlich können auch degenerative Veränderungen der Wirbelsäule, eine ektop verlaufende Arteria carotis interna oder seltene Manifestationen von Systemerkrankungen (Bsp.: Sarkoidose) zu einer unterschiedlich stark ausgeprägten Vorwölbung der Pharynxhinterwand und Einengung der Luft- und Speiseröhre führen. Anhand des vorliegenden Falls wird die klinische Präsentation sowie die radiologische Diagnose eines retropharyngealen Hämatoms diskutiert und die anatomische Beziehung der Halskompartimente mit besonderem Fokus auf den Retropharyngealraum dargestellt.

Systematic analysis of factors associated with progression and regression of ulcerative colitis in 918 patients.

BACKGROUND Studies that systematically assess change in ulcerative colitis (UC) extent over time in adult patients are scarce. AIM To assess changes in disease extent over time and to evaluate clinical parameters associated with this change. METHODS Data from the Swiss IBD cohort study were analysed. We used logistic regression modelling to identify factors associated with a change in disease extent. RESULTS A total of 918 UC patients (45.3% females) were included. At diagnosis, UC patients presented with the following disease extent: proctitis [199 patients (21.7%)], left-sided colitis [338 patients (36.8%)] and extensive colitis/pancolitis [381 (41.5%)]. During a median disease duration of 9 [4-16] years, progression and regression was documented in 145 patients (15.8%) and 149 patients (16.2%) respectively. In addition, 624 patients (68.0%) had a stable disease extent. The following factors were identified to be associated with disease progression: treatment with systemic glucocorticoids [odds ratio (OR) 1.704, P = 0.025] and calcineurin inhibitors (OR: 2.716, P = 0.005). No specific factors were found to be associated with disease regression. CONCLUSIONS Over a median disease duration of 9 [4-16] years, about two-thirds of UC patients maintained the initial disease extent; the remaining one-third had experienced either progression or regression of the disease extent.

Single-center experience in the management of spontaneous isolated abdominal aortic dissection

OBJECTIVE This study aims to report the management of patients with spontaneous isolated dissection of the abdominal aorta (sIAAD). METHODS A cohort of 18 consecutive patients (12 male, mean age 58 years) with sIAAD was treated between 1990 and 2009. Dissection was asymptomatic in ten and symptomatic in eight patients. Retrospective data analysis from patient charts was performed. Follow-up included clinical examination, ultrasound, and/or CT-angiography. Mean follow-up was 54 months (range 1-211). RESULTS In total, eight out of 18 received invasive treatment. All asymptomatic patients initially underwent conservative treatment and surveillance. Spontaneous false lumen thrombosis occurred in four (40 %), and three patients showed relevant aneurysmatic progression and underwent elective invasive treatment (open n = 2, endovascular n = 1), representing a crossover rate of 30 %. Late mortality was 20 % (n = 2) in this group. In symptomatic patients, five underwent urgent treatment due to persistent abdominal or back pain (n = 4) or contained rupture (n = 1); one was treated for claudication. The remaining two patients presented with irreversible spinal cord ischemia and were treated conservatively. Three patients were treated by open surgery and three by endovascular interventions (two stentgrafts, one Palmaz XXL stent). Early and late morbidity and mortality was 0 % in this group. There were no reinterventions CONCLUSION: The majority of patients with sIADD require invasive treatment, with EVAR being the preferable treatment option today. In asymptomatic IADD, primary surveillance is justifiable, but close surveillance due to expansion is necessary.

A frequent hypofunctional IRAK2 variant is associated with reduced spontaneous hepatitis C virus clearance.

UNLABELLED Patients carrying very rare loss-of-function mutations in interleukin-1 receptor-associated kinase 4 (IRAK4), a critical signaling mediator in Toll-like receptor signaling, are severely immunodeficient, highlighting the paramount role of IRAK kinases in innate immunity. We discovered a comparatively frequent coding variant of the enigmatic human IRAK2, L392V (rs3844283), which is found homozygously in ∼15% of Caucasians, to be associated with a reduced ability to induce interferon-alpha in primary human plasmacytoid dendritic cells in response to hepatitis C virus (HCV). Cytokine production in response to purified Toll-like receptor agonists was also impaired. Additionally, rs3844283 was epidemiologically associated with a chronic course of HCV infection in two independent HCV cohorts and emerged as an independent predictor of chronic HCV disease. Mechanistically, IRAK2 L392V showed intact binding to, but impaired ubiquitination of, tumor necrosis factor receptor-associated factor 6, a vital step in signal transduction. CONCLUSION Our study highlights IRAK2 and its genetic variants as critical factors and potentially novel biomarkers for human antiviral innate immunity.

Diagnostik von Regressionsschätzungen bei kleinen Stichproben (mit einem Exkurs zu logistischer Regression)

Wie alle anderen statistischen Verfahren konzentriert sich auch die Methode der Regression nur auf die Analyse ausgewählter Aspekte vorliegenden Datenmaterials. Entsprechend sind zu gegebenen Regressionsergebnissen ganz unterschiedliche Datenkonstellationen denkbar, wovon aber für die Interpretation der Ergebnisse nicht alle unproblematisch sind. So besteht besonders bei kleinen Stichproben die Gefahr, dass die Regressionsschätzung entscheidend von einzelnen Extremwerten abhängt, was die Verlässlichkeit der daraus abgeleiteten Schlussfolgerungen beeinträchtigt. In diesem Beitrag werden deshalb anhand von Beispielen einige einfache grafische und formale Instrumente zur Diagnose einflussreicher Datenpunkte in der linearen und logistischen Regression vorgestellt, die im Prozess der Datenanalyse standardmäßig angewendet werden sollten. Weiterhin werden nach Identifikation „atypischer“ Datenpunkte zu verfolgende Analysestrategien diskutiert.

From regression estimates to document tables: output formatting using -estout-

Postestimation processing and formatting of regression estimates for input into document tables are tasks that many of us have to do. However, processing results by hand can be laborious, and is vulnerable to error. There are therefore many benefits to automation of these tasks while at the same time retaining user flexibility in terms of output format. The estout package meets these needs. estout assembles a table of coefficients, "significance stars", summary statistics, standard errors, t/z statistics, p-values, confidence intervals, and other statistics calculated for up to twenty models previously fitted and stored by estimates store. It then writes the table to the Stata log and/or to a text file. The estimates are formatted optionally in several styles: html, LaTeX, or tab-delimited (for input into MS Excel or Word). There are a large number of options regarding which output is formatted and how. This talk will take users through a range of examples, from relatively basic simple applications to complex ones.