Avalanche related damage potential - changes of persons and mobile values since the mid-twentieth century, case study Galtür

When determining risk related to natural hazard processes, many studies neglect the investigations of the damage potential or are limited to the assessment of immobile values like buildings. However, persons as well as mobile values form an essential part of the damage potential. Knowledge of the maximum number of exposed persons in an endangered area is of great importance for elaborating evacuation plans and immediate measures in case of catastrophes. In addition, motor vehicles can also be highly damaged, as was shown by the analysis of avalanche events. With the removal of mobile values in time as a preventive measure this kind of damage can be minimised. This study presents a method for recording the maximum number of exposed persons and monetarily assessing motor vehicles in the municipality of Galt¨ur (Tyrol, Austria). Moreover, general developments of the damage potential due to significant socio-economic changes since the mid-twentieth century are pointed out in the study area. The present situation of the maximum number of persons and mobile values in the official avalanche hazard zones of the municipality is described in detail. Information on the number of persons is derived of census data, tourism and employment statistics. During the winter months, a significant increase overlaid by strong short-term fluctuation in the number of persons can be noted. These changes result from a higher demand of tourism related manpower as well as from varying occupancy rates. The number of motor vehicles in endangered areas is closely associated to the number of exposed persons. The potential number of motor vehicles is investigated by means of mapping, statistics on the stock of motor vehicles and the density distribution. Diurnal and seasonal fluctuations of the investigated damage potential are pointed out. The recording of the number of persons and mobile values in endangered areas is vital for any disaster management.

Marital stability, satisfaction and well-being in old age: Variability and continuity in long-term continuously married older persons

Objectives: Recent research shows that the well-documented positive effects of marital stability on well-being and health outcomes are conditional upon the quality of marriage. To date, few studies have explored the relationship between marital satisfaction, well-being and health among very long-term married individuals. This study aims at identifying groups of long-term married persons with respect to marital satisfaction and comparing them longitudinally concerning their well-being outcomes, marital stressors, personality and socio-demographic variables. Method: Data are derived from a survey (data collection 2012 and 2014) with 374 continuously married individuals at wave 1 (mean age: 74.2 years, length of marriage: 49.2 years) and 252 at wave 2. Cluster analyses were performed comparing the clusters with regard to various well-being outcomes. The predictive power of cluster affiliation and various predictors at wave 1 on well-being outcomes at wave 2 was tested using regression analyses. Results: Two groups were identified, one happily the other unhappily married, with the happily married scoring higher on all well-being and health outcomes. Regression analyses revealed that group affiliation at wave 1 was not any longer predictive of health, emotional loneliness and hopelessness two years later, when taking into account socio-demographic variables, psychological resilience and marital strain, whereas it remained an important predictor of life satisfaction and social loneliness. Conclusion: Marital satisfaction is associated with health and well-being in older couples over time, whereas psychological resilience and marital strain are major predictors explaining the variance of these outcomes.

Capability of E-Bike Tourism in Switzerland

AIM OF PAPER AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS The primary aim of this investigation was to examine, if tourism in Switzerland can be stimulated by focusing on e-bike offers. Switzerland is an attractive and manifold country for bike tourism. However, there are plenty of hilly and steep areas, where the topography is quite demanding and cycling is predestined to ambitious sportsperson. Less performance-oriented bike tourists are possibly discouraged by the challenges of the landscape. E-bikes seem to be a reasonable alterna-tive to enable less trained person to attend bike tours in steeper regions as well as to keep heterogeneous groups together. E-bikes are already popular in Switzerland for daily routes as the journey to work, but they are not very common in the tour-istic context. The presented investigation evaluates the current standing of supply and demand for e-bike tourism and asks for opportunities and threats in the future development. LITERTURE REVIEW The existing frameworks to analyse capability in the field of sport tourism are limited, because of the broad variation of sports and tourism types. Still several conceptions are valuable to evaluate the opportunities of e-bike tourism in Switzer-land. According to Higham and Hinch (2009) the potential of touristic products and destinations always depends on the interaction among the factors place, people and activity. Standeven and de Knop (1999) support this position by identify-ing the experience of place as a key component of the sport tourism experience. Bull (2005) assumes that place not only affects experience. In his opinion, the specific spatially located resources are even crucial for the existence of nature sports. He identifies four factors determining the attraction of touristic products or destination, as physical characteristics, accessibility and infrastructural arrangements, political and economic resources as well as cultural and perceptual aspects. Concerning the demand side (people) the contemporary research is guided by an individual psychological focus delivering mainly results about motives and the decision making process (e.g. Görtz & Hürten, 2011). RESEARCH DESIGN AND DATA ANALYSIS The presented study is based on a between method triangulation, consisting of qualitative interviews with important stake-holders on the supply side and a cross sectional survey on the demand side. Qualitative interviews were conducted with the first provider of touristic e-bike routes and with the manager of the leading e-bike rental company in Switzerland. The interviews were evaluated by qualitative content analysis according to Mayring (2008). The survey covered a randomized sample of 748 adult persons and focused on interests and needs of potential consumers. The concluding potentials analy-sis combined the results of the interviews and the survey with the findings of literature research. As central outcome the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats were evaluated and presented by SWOT-analysis. RESULTS Results showed that the development of e-bike tourism in Switzerland was not initiated by tourism promoter, but by an innovative e-bike producer. However, also for the manufacturer the fit between landscape (place), product (activity) and visitors (people) was the crucial criterion. The first e-bike tours were offered in a demanding and rural region, in order that the experience of place was able to promote a positive overall experience. Due to the success of the first touristic e-bike products, several tourism regions started to extend their portfolio with e-bike offers. To date a nationwide network for signalised e-bike tours, rental stations and changing stations for rechargeable batteries is established. Despite the attractive offer, the demand is only moderate. The obtained results of the consumer survey pointed at a certain barrier to use e-bikes for tourism activities. The most substantial barrier is the missing affinity for bike tourism in general. Another notable group considering themselves as “fit enough for normal bike tourism”. Nevertheless 55% of the respondent are interested in tour-istic e-bike products. Looking only at people with e-bike tourism experience, even 92% are interested in further activities. DISCUSSION AN CONCLUSION The current study findings are encouraging because they suggest a superior suitability and an attractive level of e-bike tourism products in Switzerland. The results of the consumer survey indicate an increasing demand for e-bike tourism. The investigation also points at some risks, as the rivalry for bike tourism or the raised safety hazard because of the increased driving speed. Summing up, the results support the conclusion, that e-bike tourism will become more important in the com-ing years. However, to reach the goal relevant trends as the requirement for customised offers must be considered and marketing activities are supposed to be extended. REFERENCES Bull, C. (2005). Sport tourism resource analysis. In J. Higham (Ed.), Sport tourism destination: Issues, opportunities and analysis (pp. 25-38). Amsterdam: Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann. Görtz, M., & D. Hürten (2011). Motive der Radurlauber, psychografische Merkmale und Reiseverhalten. In A. Dreyer, E. Miglbauer & R. Mühlnickel (Hrsg.), Radtourismus. Entwicklungen, Potenziale, Perspektiven (S. 36-43). München: Olden-bourg. Higham, J., & Hinch, T. (2009). Sport and Tourism. Globalization, Mobility and Identity. Amsterdam: Butterworth-Heinemann. Mayring, P. (2008). Qualitative Inhaltsanalyse. Grundlagen und Techniken (10. Aufl.). Weinheim: Beltz Verlag. Standeven, J., & De Knop, P. (1999). Sport Tourism. Campaign: Human Kinetics.

Essentials from the 2015 European AIDS Clinical Society (EACS) guidelines for the treatment of adult HIV-positive persons.

BACKGROUND The European AIDS Clinical Society (EACS) guidelines are intended for all clinicians involved in the care of HIV-positive persons, and are available in print, online, and as a free App for download for iPhone and Android. GUIDELINE HIGHLIGHTS The 2015 version of the EACS guidelines contains major revisions in all sections; antiretroviral treatment (ART), comorbidities, coinfections and opportunistic diseases. Among the key revisions is the recommendation of ART for all HIV-positive persons, irrespectively of CD4 count, based on the Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) study results. The recommendations for the preferred and the alternative ART options have also been revised, and a new section on the use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been added. A number of new antiretroviral drugs/drug combinations have been added to the updated tables on drug-drug interactions, adverse drug effects, dose adjustment for renal/liver insufficiency and for ART administration in persons with swallowing difficulties. The revisions of the coinfection section reflect the major advances in anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment with direct-acting antivirals with earlier start of treatment in individuals at increased risk of liver disease progression, and a phasing out of interferon-containing treatment regimens. The section on opportunistic diseases has been restructured according to individual pathogens/diseases and a new overview table has been added on CD4 count thresholds for different primary prophylaxes. CONCLUSIONS The diagnosis and management of HIV infection and related coinfections, opportunistic diseases and comorbidities continue to require a multidisciplinary effort for which the 2015 version of the EACS guidelines provides an easily accessable and updated overview.

Of missing fathers and Big Fish: reconstructive tendencies after postmodernism

Many things have been said about literature after postmodernism, but one point there seems to be some agreement on is that it does not turn its back radically on its postmodernist forerunner, but rather generally continues to heed and value their insights. There seems to be something strikingly non-oedipal about the recent aesthetic shift. It is a project of reconstruction that remains deeply rooted in postmodernist tenets. Such an essentially non-oedipal attitude, I would argue, is central to the nature of the reconstructive shift. This, however, also raises questions about the wider cultural context from which such an aesthetic stance arises. If postmodernism was nurtured by the revolutionary spirits of the late 1960s, reconstruction faces a different world with different strategies. Instead of the postmodernist urge to subvert, expose and undermine, reconstruction yearns towards tentative and fragile intersubjective understanding, towards responsibility and community. Instead of revolt and rebellion it explores reconciliation and compromise. One instance in which this becomes visible in reconstructive narratives is the recurring figure of the lost father. Missing father figures abound in recent novels by authors like Mark Z. Danielewski, Dave Eggers, Yann Mantel, David Mitchell etc. It almost seems like a younger generation is yearning for the fathers which postmodernism has struggled hard to do away with. My paper will focus on one particularly striking example to explore the implications of this development: Daniel Wallace’s novel Big Fish and Tim Burton’s well-known film adaptation of the same. In their negotiation of fact and fiction, of doubt and belief, of freedom and responsibility, all of which converge in a father-son relationship, they serve well to illustrate central characteristics and concerns of recent attempts to leave postmodernism behind.

Cluster of Leptospirosis Acquired Through River Surfing in Switzerland

Background.  In Switzerland, leptospirosis is still considered as a travel-associated disease. After the surprising diagnosis of leptospirosis in a patient who was initially suspected as having primary human immunodeficiency virus infection, we recognized that acquisition of leptospirosis occurred through recreational activities and we identified additional affected individuals. Methods.  Detailed anamnesis, excluding occupational exposure, acquisition abroad, and pet contacts, enabled us to detect the source of infection and identify a cluster of leptospirosis. Convalescent sera testing was performed to confirm Leptospira infection. Microscopic agglutination tests were used to determine the infecting serovar. Results.  We identified a cluster of leptospirosis in young, previously healthy persons. Acquisition of leptospirosis was traced back to a surfing spot on a river in Switzerland (Reuss, Aargau). Clinical presentation was indistinct. Two of the 3 reported cases required hospitalization, and 1 case even suffered from meningitis. Serologic tests indicated infection with the serovar Grippotyphosa in all cases. With the exception of the case with meningitis, no antibiotics were administered, because leptospirosis was diagnosed after spontaneous resolution of most symptoms. Despite a prolonged period of convalescence in 2 cases, full recovery was achieved. Recent reports on beavers suffering from leptospirosis in this region underline the possible water-borne infection of the 3 cases and raise the question of potential wildlife reservoirs. Conclusions.  Insufficient awareness of caregivers, which may be promoted by the missing obligation to report human leptospirosis, combined with the multifaceted presentation of the disease result in significant underdiagnosis. More frequent consideration of leptospirosis as differential diagnosis is inevitable, particularly as veterinary data suggest re-emergence of the disease.

Long-bone fractures in persons with spinal cord injury

STUDY DESIGN Retrospective data analysis. OBJECTIVES To document fracture characteristics, management and related complications in individuals with traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI). SETTING Rehabilitation centre for SCI individuals. METHOD Patients' records were reviewed. Patients with traumatic SCI and extremity fractures that had occurred after SCI were included. Patient characteristics, fractured bone, fracture localisation, severity and management (operative/conservative), and fracture-related complications were extracted. RESULTS A total of 156 long-bone fractures in 107 SCI patients (34 women and 73 men) were identified. The majority of patients were paraplegics (77.6%) and classified as American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale A (86.0%). Only the lower extremities were affected, whereby the femur (60.9% of all fractures) was fractured more frequently than the lower leg (39.1%). A total of 70 patients (65.4%) had one fracture, whereas 37 patients (34.6%) had two or more fractures. Simple or extraarticular fractures were most common (75.0%). Overall, 130 (83.3%) fractures were managed operatively. Approximately half of the femur fractures (48.2%) were treated with locking compression plates. In the lower leg, fractures were mainly managed with external fixation (48.8%). Conservative fracture management was applied in 16.7% of the cases and consisted of braces or a well-padded soft cast. Fracture-associated complications were present in 13.5% of the cases but did not differ significantly between operative (13.1%) and conservative (15.4%) fracture management. CONCLUSION SCI was associated with simple or extraarticular fractures of the distal femur and the lower leg. Fractures were mainly managed operatively with a low complication rate.

Reporting and handling missing outcome data in mental health: a systematic review of Cochrane systematic reviews and meta-analyses

OBJECTIVES The purpose of the study was to provide empirical evidence about the reporting of methodology to address missing outcome data and the acknowledgement of their impact in Cochrane systematic reviews in the mental health field. METHODS Systematic reviews published in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews after January 1, 2009 by three Cochrane Review Groups relating to mental health were included. RESULTS One hundred ninety systematic reviews were considered. Missing outcome data were present in at least one included study in 175 systematic reviews. Of these 175 systematic reviews, 147 (84%) accounted for missing outcome data by considering a relevant primary or secondary outcome (e.g., dropout). Missing outcome data implications were reported only in 61 (35%) systematic reviews and primarily in the discussion section by commenting on the amount of the missing outcome data. One hundred forty eligible meta-analyses with missing data were scrutinized. Seventy-nine (56%) of them had studies with total dropout rate between 10 and 30%. One hundred nine (78%) meta-analyses reported to have performed intention-to-treat analysis by including trials with imputed outcome data. Sensitivity analysis for incomplete outcome data was implemented in less than 20% of the meta-analyses. CONCLUSIONS Reporting of the techniques for handling missing outcome data and their implications in the findings of the systematic reviews are suboptimal.

Addressing missing participant outcome data in dental clinical trials

Missing outcome data are common in clinical trials and despite a well-designed study protocol, some of the randomized participants may leave the trial early without providing any or all of the data, or may be excluded after randomization. Premature discontinuation causes loss of information, potentially resulting in attrition bias leading to problems during interpretation of trial findings. The causes of information loss in a trial, known as mechanisms of missingness, may influence the credibility of the trial results. Analysis of trials with missing outcome data should ideally be handled with intention to treat (ITT) rather than per protocol (PP) analysis. However, true ITT analysis requires appropriate assumptions and imputation of missing data. Using a worked example from a published dental study, we highlight the key issues associated with missing outcome data in clinical trials, describe the most recognized approaches to handling missing outcome data, and explain the principles of ITT and PP analysis.

When to Monitor CD4 Cell Count and HIV RNA to Reduce Mortality and AIDS-Defining Illness in Virologically Suppressed HIV-Positive Persons on Antiretroviral Therapy in High-Income Countries: A Prospective Observational Study.

OBJECTIVE To illustrate an approach to compare CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA monitoring strategies in HIV-positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART). DESIGN Prospective studies of HIV-positive individuals in Europe and the USA in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and The Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems. METHODS Antiretroviral-naive individuals who initiated ART and became virologically suppressed within 12 months were followed from the date of suppression. We compared 3 CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA monitoring strategies: once every (1) 3 ± 1 months, (2) 6 ± 1 months, and (3) 9-12 ± 1 months. We used inverse-probability weighted models to compare these strategies with respect to clinical, immunologic, and virologic outcomes. RESULTS In 39,029 eligible individuals, there were 265 deaths and 690 AIDS-defining illnesses or deaths. Compared with the 3-month strategy, the mortality hazard ratios (95% CIs) were 0.86 (0.42 to 1.78) for the 6 months and 0.82 (0.46 to 1.47) for the 9-12 month strategy. The respective 18-month risk ratios (95% CIs) of virologic failure (RNA >200) were 0.74 (0.46 to 1.19) and 2.35 (1.56 to 3.54) and 18-month mean CD4 differences (95% CIs) were -5.3 (-18.6 to 7.9) and -31.7 (-52.0 to -11.3). The estimates for the 2-year risk of AIDS-defining illness or death were similar across strategies. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that monitoring frequency of virologically suppressed individuals can be decreased from every 3 months to every 6, 9, or 12 months with respect to clinical outcomes. Because effects of different monitoring strategies could take years to materialize, longer follow-up is needed to fully evaluate this question.

Contribution of Genetic Background and Clinical Risk Factors to Low-Trauma Fractures in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-Positive Persons: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Background.  The impact of human genetic background on low-trauma fracture (LTF) risk has not been evaluated in the context of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and clinical LTF risk factors. Methods.  In the general population, 6 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associate with LTF through genome-wide association study. Using genome-wide SNP arrays and imputation, we genotyped these SNPs in HIV-positive, white Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants. We included 103 individuals with a first, physician-validated LTF and 206 controls matched on gender, whose duration of observation and whose antiretroviral therapy start dates were similar using incidence density sampling. Analyses of nongenetic LTF risk factors were based on 158 cases and 788 controls. Results.  A genetic risk score built from the 6 LTF-associated SNPs did not associate with LTF risk, in both models including and not including parental hip fracture history. The contribution of clinical LTF risk factors was limited in our dataset. Conclusions.  Genetic LTF markers with a modest effect size in the general population do not improve fracture prediction in persons with HIV, in whom clinical LTF risk factors are prevalent in both cases and controls.