145 resultados para Kaplan
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Background. Although acquired immune deficiency syndrome-associated morbidity has diminished due to excellent viral control, multimorbidity may be increasing among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons compared with the general population. Methods. We assessed the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) compared with the population-based CoLaus study and the primary care-based FIRE (Family Medicine ICPC-Research using Electronic Medical Records) records. The incidence of the respective endpoints were assessed among SHCS and CoLaus participants. Poisson regression models were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and smoking. Results. Overall, 74 291 participants contributed data to prevalence analyses (3230 HIV-infected; 71 061 controls). In CoLaus, FIRE, and SHCS, multimorbidity was present among 26%, 13%, and 27% of participants. Compared with nonsmoking individuals from CoLaus, the incidence of cardiovascular disease was elevated among smoking individuals but independent of HIV status (HIV-negative smoking: incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.2-2.5; HIV-positive smoking: IRR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.1-2.6; HIV-positive nonsmoking: IRR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.44-1.4). Compared with nonsmoking HIV-negative persons, multivariable Poisson regression identified associations of HIV infection with hypertension (nonsmoking: IRR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.5-2.4; smoking: IRR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.6-2.4), kidney (nonsmoking: IRR = 2.7, 95% CI = 1.9-3.8; smoking: IRR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.9-3.6), and liver disease (nonsmoking: IRR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.4-2.4; smoking: IRR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.4-2.2). No evidence was found for an association of HIV-infection or smoking with diabetes mellitus. Conclusions. Multimorbidity is more prevalent and incident in HIV-positive compared with HIV-negative individuals. Smoking, but not HIV status, has a strong impact on cardiovascular risk and multimorbidity.
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OBJECTIVE The current Ebola epidemic massively affected the Macenta district in Forest Guinea. We aimed at investigating its impact on general and HIV care at the only HIV care facility in the district. DESIGN Prospective observational single-facility study. METHODS Routinely collected data on use of general hospital services and HIV care were linked to Ebola surveillance data published by the Guinea Ministry of Health. In addition, we compared retention among HIV-infected patients enrolled into care in the first semesters of 2013 and 2014. RESULTS Throughout 2014, service offer was continuous and unaltered at the facility. During the main epidemic period (August-December 2014), compared with the same period of 2013, there were important reductions in attendance at the primary care outpatient clinic (-40%), in HIV tests done (-46%), in new diagnoses of tuberculosis (-53%) and in patients enrolled into HIV care (-47%). There was a smaller reduction in attendance at the HIV follow-up clinic (-11%). Kaplan-Meier estimates of retention were similar among the patients enrolled into care in 2014 and 2013. In a multivariable Cox regression analysis, the year of enrolment was not associated with attrition (hazard ratio 1.02; 95% confidence interval: 0.72-1.43). CONCLUSION The Ebola epidemic resulted in an important decrease in utilization of the facility despite unaltered service offer. Effects on care of HIV-positive patients enrolled prior to the epidemic were limited. HIV care in such circumstances is challenging, but not impossible.
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BACKGROUND: To date, an estimated 10% of children eligible for antiretroviral treatment (ART) receive it, and the frequency of retention in programs is unknown. We evaluated the 2-year risks of death and loss to follow-up (LTFU) of children after ART initiation in a multicenter study in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Pooled analysis of routine individual data from 16 participating clinics produced overall Kaplan-Meier estimates of the probabilities of death or LTFU after ART initiation. Risk factors analysis used Weibull regression, accounting for between-cohort heterogeneity. RESULTS: The median age of 2405 children at ART initiation was 4.9 years (12%, younger than 12 months), 52% were male, 70% had severe immunodeficiency, and 59% started ART with a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor. The 2-year risk of death after ART initiation was 6.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.9 to 8.1), independently associated with baseline severe anemia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 4.10 [CI: 2.36 to 7.13]), immunodeficiency (adjusted aHR: 2.95 [CI: 1.49 to 5.82]), and severe clinical status (adjusted aHR: 3.64 [CI: 1.95 to 6.81]); the 2-year risk of LTFU was 10.3% (CI: 8.9 to 11.9), higher in children with severe clinical status. CONCLUSIONS: Once on treatment, the 2-year risk of death is low but the LTFU risk is substantial. ART is still mainly initiated at advanced disease stage in African children, reinforcing the need for early HIV diagnosis, early initiation of ART, and procedures to increase program retention.
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BACKGROUND Current reporting guidelines do not call for standardised declaration of follow-up completeness, although study validity depends on the representativeness of measured outcomes. The Follow-Up Index (FUI) describes follow-up completeness at a given study end date as ratio between the investigated and the potential follow-up period. The association between FUI and the accuracy of survival-estimates was investigated. METHODS FUI and Kaplan-Meier estimates were calculated twice for 1207 consecutive patients undergoing aortic repair during an 11-year period: in a scenario A the population's clinical routine follow-up data (available from a prospective registry) was analysed conventionally. For the control scenario B, an independent survey was completed at the predefined study end. To determine the relation between FUI and the accuracy of study findings, discrepancies between scenarios regarding FUI, follow-up duration and cumulative survival-estimates were evaluated using multivariate analyses. RESULTS Scenario A noted 89 deaths (7.4%) during a mean considered follow-up of 30±28months. Scenario B, although analysing the same study period, detected 304 deaths (25.2%, P<0.001) as it scrutinized the complete follow-up period (49±32months). FUI (0.57±0.35 versus 1.00±0, P<0.001) and cumulative survival estimates (78.7% versus 50.7%, P<0.001) differed significantly between scenarios, suggesting that incomplete follow-up information led to underestimation of mortality. Degree of follow-up completeness (i.e. FUI-quartiles and FUI-intervals) correlated directly with accuracy of study findings: underestimation of long-term mortality increased almost linearly by 30% with every 0.1 drop in FUI (adjusted HR 1.30; 95%-CI 1.24;1.36, P<0.001). CONCLUSION Follow-up completeness is a pre-requisite for reliable outcome assessment and should be declared systematically. FUI represents a simple measure suited as reporting standard. Evidence lacking such information must be challenged as potentially flawed by selection bias.
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PURPOSE Small cell carcinomas of the bladder (SCCB) account for fewer than 1% of all urinary bladder tumors. There is no consensus regarding the optimal treatment for SCCB. METHODS AND MATERIALS Fifteen academic Rare Cancer Network medical centers contributed SCCB cases. The eligibility criteria were as follows: pure or mixed SCC; local, locoregional, and metastatic stages; and age ≥18 years. The overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were calculated from the date of diagnosis according to the Kaplan-Meier method. The log-rank and Wilcoxon tests were used to analyze survival as functions of clinical and therapeutic factors. RESULTS The study included 107 patients (mean [±standard deviation, SD] age, 69.6 [±10.6] years; mean follow-up time, 4.4 years) with primary bladder SCC, with 66% of these patients having pure SCC. Seventy-two percent and 12% of the patients presented with T2-4N0M0 and T2-4N1-3M0 stages, respectively, and 16% presented with synchronous metastases. The most frequent curative treatments were radical surgery and chemotherapy, sequential chemotherapy and radiation therapy, and radical surgery alone. The median (interquartile range, IQR) OS and DFS times were 12.9 months (IQR, 7-32 months) and 9 months (IQR, 5-23 months), respectively. The metastatic, T2-4N0M0, and T2-4N1-3M0 groups differed significantly (P=.001) in terms of median OS and DFS. In a multivariate analysis, impaired creatinine clearance (OS and DFS), clinical stage (OS and DFS), a Karnofsky performance status <80 (OS), and pure SCC histology (OS) were independent and significant adverse prognostic factors. In the patients with nonmetastatic disease, the type of treatment (ie radical surgery with or without adjuvant chemotherapy vs conservative treatment) did not significantly influence OS or DFS (P=.7). CONCLUSIONS The prognosis for SCCB remains poor. The finding that radical cystectomy did not influence DFS or OS in the patients with nonmetastatic disease suggests that conservative treatment is appropriate in this situation.
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BACKGROUND Skull-base chondrosarcoma (ChSa) is a rare disease, and the prognostication of this disease entity is ill defined. METHODS We assessed the long-term local control (LC) results, overall survival (OS), and prognostic factors of skull-base ChSa patients treated with pencil beam scanning proton therapy (PBS PT). Seventy-seven (male, 35; 46%) patients with histologically confirmed ChSa were treated at the Paul Scherrer Institute. Median age was 38.9 years (range, 10.2-70.0y). Median delivered dose was 70.0 GyRBE (range, 64.0-76.0 GyRBE). LC, OS, and toxicity-free survival (TFS) rates were calculated using the Kaplan Meier method. RESULTS After a mean follow-up of 69.2 months (range, 4.6-190.8 mo), 6 local (7.8%) failures were observed, 2 of which were late failures. Five (6.5%) patients died. The actuarial 8-year LC and OS were 89.7% and 93.5%, respectively. Tumor volume > 25 cm(3) (P = .02), brainstem/optic apparatus compression at the time of PT (P = .04) and age >30 years (P = .08) were associated with lower rates of LC. High-grade (≥3) radiation-induced toxicity was observed in 6 (7.8%) patients. The 8-year high-grade TFS was 90.8%. A higher rate of high-grade toxicity was observed for older patients (P = .073), those with larger tumor volume (P = .069), and those treated with 5 weekly fractions (P = .069). CONCLUSIONS This is the largest PT series reporting the outcome of patients with low-grade ChSa of the skull base treated with PBS only. Our data indicate that protons are both safe and effective. Tumor volume, brainstem/optic apparatus compression, and age were prognosticators of local failures.
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Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes’ theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.
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BACKGROUND We previously reported the 5-year followup of hips with femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) that underwent surgical hip dislocation with trimming of the head-neck junction and/or acetabulum including reattachment of the labrum. The goal of this study was to report a concise followup of these patients at a minimum 10 years. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES We asked if these patients had (1) improved hip pain and function; we then determined (2) the 10-year survival rate and (3) calculated factors predicting failure. METHODS Between July 2001 and March 2003, we performed surgical hip dislocation and femoral neck osteoplasty and/or acetabular rim trimming with labral reattachment in 75 patients (97 hips). Of those, 72 patients (93 hips [96%]) were available for followup at a minimum of 10 years (mean, 11 years; range, 10-13 years). We used the anterior impingement test to assess pain and the Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score to assess function. Survivorship calculation was performed using the method of Kaplan and Meier and any of the following factors as a definition of failure: conversion to total hip arthroplasty (THA), radiographic evidence of worsening osteoarthritis (OA), or a Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score less than 15. Predictive factors for any of these failures were calculated using the Cox regression analysis. RESULTS At 10-year followup, the prevalence of a positive impingement test decreased from preoperative 95% to 38% (p < 0.001) and the Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score increased from preoperative 15.3 ± 1.4 (range, 9-17) to 16.9 ± 1.3 (12-18; p < 0.001). Survivorship of these procedures for any of the defined failures was 80% (95% confidence interval, 72%-88%). The strongest predictors of failure were age > 40 years (hazard ratio with 95% confidence interval, 5.9 [4.8-7.1], p = 0.002), body mass index > 30 kg/m(2) (5.5 [3.9-7.2], p = 0.041), a lateral center-edge angle < 22° or > 32° (5.4 [4.2-6.6], p = 0.006), and a posterior acetabular coverage < 34% (4.8 [3.7-5.6], p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS At 10-year followup, 80% of patients with FAI treated with surgical hip dislocation, osteoplasty, and labral reattachment had not progressed to THA, developed worsening OA, or had a Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score of less than 15. Radiographic predictors for failure were related to over- and undertreatment of acetabular rim trimming.
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PURPOSE With pilonidal sinus disease (PSD) incidence increasing and patients freely choosing their surgeon, patients' interest issues have been brought forward estimating patient satisfaction following pilonidal sinus surgery. The influence of wound healing time and long-term recurrence rate on patient satisfaction in primary PSD surgery has not been investigated yet. METHODS Five hundred eighty-three patients (German military cohort) were interviewed, compiling wound healing time, aesthetic satisfaction, long-term recurrence-free survival and patient satisfaction having undergone primary open (PO) treatment, marsupialization (MARS) or primary midline closure (PMC) treatment. Recurrence rate was determined by Kaplan-Meier calculation following up to 20 years after primary PSD surgery. RESULTS Patient satisfaction ranking from 1 to 10 (10 = max. satisfied) showed an average satisfaction of 8.2 (range 0-10; 95% confidence interval (CI) 7891-8250). In-hospital stay time was significantly longer in primary open (PO) and marsupialization (MARS) group as compared to primary midline closure (PMC; p < 0.0001, Kruskal-Wallis test). Satisfaction was comparable between treatment groups, and was neither linked to in-hospital stay time nor to longer outpatient wound care period or total treatment time. Recurrence-free survival, as seen in the PO and PMC treatment group, revealed a highly significant difference for all patients. Improvement in MARS patients with versus without recurrence was low, as satisfaction with primary treatment was lower as the other groups. CONCLUSIONS Neither choice of surgical treatment nor treatment duration within hospital or after hospital influences patient satisfaction, as long as recurrence-free survival can be provided. Marsupialization was ranked lower in both groups (with or without recurrence), and should be abandoned, as patients are significantly less satisfied with either results, independent of recurrence.
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OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to examine the recurrence rate of wound rupture in primary pilonidal sinus disease (PSD) after median closure. SUBJECTS AND METHODS A total of 583 patients from the German military cohort were interviewed. We compared the choice of surgical therapy, wound dehiscence (if present) and long-term recurrence-free survival for patients with primary open treatment, marsupialization and primary median treatment (closed vs. secondary open, respectively). Actuarial recurrence rate was determined using the Kaplan-Meier calculation with a follow-up of up to 20 years after primary PSD surgery. RESULTS Patients with excision followed by primary open wound treatment showed a significantly lower 5- than 10-year recurrence rate (8.3 vs. 11.2%) compared to the patients with primary midline closure (17.4 vs. 20.5%, p = 0.03). The 20-year recurrence rate was 28% in primary open wound treatment versus 44% in primary midline closure without wound rupture. In contrast to these findings, long-term recurrence rates following secondary open wound treatment (12.2% at 5 years vs. 17.1% at 10 years) tended to be higher (although not significantly, p = 0.57) compared to primary open treatment (8.3% at 5 years vs. 11.2% at 10 years). There was no statistical difference in long-term recurrence rates between secondary open and primary midline closure (p = 0.7). Hence, despite only a short wound closure time experienced before wound rupture, the patient does not fully benefit from an open wound treatment in terms of recurrence rate. CONCLUSION The postoperative pilonidal sinus wound rupture of primary midline closures did not significantly increase the 5- and 10-year long-term recurrence rates compared to uneventfully healing primary midline closures.
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PURPOSE The aim was to assess changes of tumour hypoxia during primary radiochemotherapy (RCT) for head and neck cancer (HNC) and to evaluate their relationship with treatment outcome. MATERIAL AND METHODS Hypoxia was assessed by FMISO-PET in weeks 0, 2 and 5 of RCT. The tumour volume (TV) was determined using FDG-PET/MRI/CT co-registered images. The level of hypoxia was quantified on FMISO-PET as TBRmax (SUVmaxTV/SUVmean background). The hypoxic subvolume (HSV) was defined as TV that showed FMISO uptake ⩾1.4 times blood pool activity. RESULTS Sixteen consecutive patients (T3-4, N+, M0) were included (mean follow-up 31, median 44months). Mean TBRmax decreased significantly (p<0.05) from 1.94 to 1.57 (week 2) and 1.27 (week 5). Mean HSV in week 2 and week 5 (HSV2=5.8ml, HSV3=0.3ml) were significantly (p<0.05) smaller than at baseline (HSV1=15.8ml). Kaplan-Meier plots of local recurrence free survival stratified at the median TBRmax showed superior local control for less hypoxic tumours, the difference being significant at baseline and after 2weeks (p=0.031, p=0.016). CONCLUSIONS FMISO-PET documented that in most HNC reoxygenation starts early during RCT and is correlated with better outcome.
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BACKGROUND There are limited published data on the outcomes of infants starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in routine care in Southern Africa. This study aimed to examine the baseline characteristics and outcomes of infants initiating ART. METHODS We analyzed prospectively collected cohort data from routine ART initiation in infants from 11 cohorts contributing to the International Epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa. We included ART-naive HIV-infected infants aged <12 months initiating ≥3 antiretroviral drugs between 2004 and 2012. Kaplan-Meier estimates were calculated for mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU), transfer out, and virological suppression. We used Cox proportional hazard models stratified by cohort to determine baseline characteristics associated with outcomes mortality and virological suppression. RESULTS The median (interquartile range) age at ART initiation of 4945 infants was 5.9 months (3.7-8.7) with follow-up of 11.2 months (2.8-20.0). At ART initiation, 77% had WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 disease and 87% were severely immunosuppressed. Three-year mortality probability was 16% and LTFU 29%. Severe immunosuppression, WHO stage 3 or 4, anemia, being severely underweight, and initiation of treatment before 2010 were associated with higher mortality. At 12 months after ART initiation, 17% of infants were severely immunosuppressed and the probability of attaining virological suppression was 56%. CONCLUSIONS Most infants initiating ART in Southern Africa had severe disease with high probability of LTFU and mortality on ART. Although the majority of infants remaining in care showed immune recovery and virological suppression, these responses were suboptimal.
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RATIONALE The use of 6-minute-walk distance (6MWD) as an indicator of exercise capacity to predict postoperative survival in lung transplantation has not previously been well studied. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the association between 6MWD and postoperative survival following lung transplantation. METHODS Adult, first time, lung-only transplantations per the United Network for Organ Sharing database from May 2005 to December 2011 were analyzed. Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards modeling were used to determine the association between preoperative 6MWD and post-transplant survival after adjusting for potential confounders. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the 6MWD value that provided maximal separation in 1-year mortality. A subanalysis was performed to assess the association between 6MWD and post-transplant survival by disease category. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS A total of 9,526 patients were included for analysis. The median 6MWD was 787 ft (25th-75th percentiles = 450-1,082 ft). Increasing 6MWD was associated with significantly lower overall hazard of death (P < 0.001). Continuous increase in walk distance through 1,200-1,400 ft conferred an incremental survival advantage. Although 6MWD strongly correlated with survival, the impact of a single dichotomous value to predict outcomes was limited. All disease categories demonstrated significantly longer survival with increasing 6MWD (P ≤ 0.009) except pulmonary vascular disease (P = 0.74); however, the low volume in this category (n = 312; 3.3%) may limit the ability to detect an association. CONCLUSIONS 6MWD is significantly associated with post-transplant survival and is best incorporated into transplant evaluations on a continuous basis given limited ability of a single, dichotomous value to predict outcomes.
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OBJECTIVE Parametrial involvement (PMI) is one of the most important factors influencing prognosis in locally advanced stage cervical cancer (LACC) patients. We aimed to evaluate PMI rate among LACC patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT), thus evaluating the utility of parametrectomy in tailor adjuvant treatments. METHODS Retrospective evaluation of consecutive 275 patients affected by LACC (IB2-IIB), undergoing NACT followed by type C/class III radical hysterectomy. Basic descriptive statistics, univariate and multivariate analyses were applied in order to identify factors predicting PMI. Survival outcomes were assessed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox models. RESULTS PMI was detected in 37 (13%) patients: it was associated with vaginal involvement, lymph node positivity and both in 10 (4%), 5 (2%) and 12 (4%) patients, respectively; while PMI alone was observed in only 10 (4%) patients. Among this latter group, adjuvant treatment was delivered in 3 (1%) patients on the basis of pure PMI; while the remaining patients had other characteristics driving adjuvant treatment. Considering factors predicting PMI we observed that only suboptimal pathological responses (OR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.22) and vaginal involvement (OR: 1.29 (95%) CI: 1.17, 1.44) were independently associated with PMI. PMI did not correlate with survival (HR: 2.0; 95% CI: 0.82, 4.89); while clinical response to NACT (HR: 3.35; 95% CI: 1.59, 7.04), vaginal involvement (HR: 2.38; 95% CI: 1.12, 5.02) and lymph nodes positivity (HR: 3.47; 95% CI: 1.62, 7.41), independently correlated with worse survival outcomes. CONCLUSIONS Our data suggest that PMI had a limited role on the choice to administer adjuvant treatment, thus supporting the potential embrace of less radical surgery in LACC patients undergoing NACT. Further prospective studies are warranted.
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BACKGROUND Although surgery represents the cornerstone treatment of endometrial cancer at initial diagnosis, scarce data are available in recurrent setting. The purpose of this study was to review the outcome of surgery in these patients. METHODS Medical records of all patients undergoing surgery for recurrent endometrial cancer at NCI Milano between January 2003 and January 2014 were reviewed. Survival was determined from the time of surgery for recurrence to last follow-up. Survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Differences in survival were analyzed using the log-rank test. The Fisher's exact test was used to compare optimal versus suboptimal cytoreduction against possible predictive factors. RESULTS Sixty-four patients were identified. Median age was 66 years. Recurrences were multiple in 38 % of the cases. Optimal cytoreduction was achieved in 65.6 %. Median OR time was 165 min, median postoperative hemoglobin drop was 2.4 g/dl, and median length hospital stay was 5.5 days. Eleven patients developed postoperative complications, but only four required surgical management. Estimated 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 42 and 19 % in optimally and suboptimally cytoreduced patients, respectively. At multivariate analysis, only residual disease was associated with PFS. Estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) was 60 and 30 % in optimally and suboptimally cytoreduced patients, respectively. At multivariate analysis, residual disease and histotype were associated with OS. At multivariate analysis, only performance status was associated with optimal cytoreduction. CONCLUSIONS Secondary cytoreduction in endometrial cancer is associated with long PFS and OS. The only factors associated with improved long-term outcome are the absence of residual disease at the end of surgical resection and histotype.