Predicting the risk of hospital admission in older persons--validation of a brief self-administered questionnaire in three European countries

OBJECTIVES: To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems. DESIGN: Prospective study with 1-year follow-up. SETTING: Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC High-risk individuals (Pra score >or= 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits. CONCLUSION: The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons.

Neoadjuvant interstitial high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy combined with systemic chemotherapy in patients with breast cancer

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This is the first study investigating neoadjuvant interstitial high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy combined with chemotherapy in patients with breast cancer. The goal was to evaluate the type of surgical treatment, histopathologic response, side effects, local control, and survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 53 patients, who could not be treated with breast-conserving surgery due to initial tumor size (36/53) or due to an unfavorable breast-tumor ratio (17/53), were analyzed retrospectively. All but one were in an intermediate/high-risk group (St. Gallen criteria). The patients received a neoadjuvant protocol consisting of systemic chemotherapy combined with fractionated HDR brachytherapy (2 x 5 Gy/day, total dose 30 Gy). In cases, where breast-conserving surgery was performed, patients received additional external-beam radiotherapy (EBRT, 1.8 Gy/day, total dose 50.4 Gy). In patients, who underwent mastectomy but showed an initial tumor size of T3/T4 and/or more than three infiltrated lymph nodes, EBRT was also performed. RESULTS: In 30/53 patients (56.6%) breast-conserving surgery could be performed. The overall histopathologic response rate was 96.2% with a complete remission in 28.3% of patients. 49/53 patients were evaluable for follow-up. After a median of 58 months (45-72 months), one patient showed a mild fibrosis of the breast tissue, three patients had mild to moderate lymphatic edema of the arm. 6/49 (12.2%) patients died of distant metastases, 4/49 (8.2%) were alive with disease, and 39/49 (79.6%) were free from disease. Local recurrence was observed in only one case (2%) 40 months after primary therapy. After mastectomy, this patient is currently free from disease. CONCLUSION: The combination of interstitial HDR brachytherapy and chemotherapy is a well-tolerated and effective neoadjuvant treatment in patients with breast cancer. Compared to EBRT, treatment time is short. Postoperative EBRT of the whole breast -- if necessary -- is still possible after neoadjuvant brachytherapy. Even though the number of patients does not permit definite conclusions, the results are promising regarding survival and the very low rate of local recurrences.

Health risk appraisal in older people 1: are older people living alone an "at-risk" group?

BACKGROUND: In the UK, population screening for unmet need has failed to improve the health of older people. Attention is turning to interventions targeted at 'at-risk' groups. Living alone in later life is seen as a potential health risk, and older people living alone are thought to be an at-risk group worthy of further intervention. AIM: To explore the clinical significance of living alone and the epidemiology of lone status as an at-risk category, by investigating associations between lone status and health behaviours, health status, and service use, in non-disabled older people. Design of study: Secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal in older people. SETTING: Four group practices in suburban London. METHOD: Sixty per cent of 2641 community-dwelling non-disabled people aged 65 years and over registered at a practice agreed to participate in the study; 84% of these returned completed questionnaires. A third of this group, (n = 860, 33.1%) lived alone and two-thirds (n = 1741, 66.9%) lived with someone else. RESULTS: Those living alone were more likely to report fair or poor health, poor vision, difficulties in instrumental and basic activities of daily living, worse memory and mood, lower physical activity, poorer diet, worsening function, risk of social isolation, hazardous alcohol use, having no emergency carer, and multiple falls in the previous 12 months. After adjustment for age, sex, income, and educational attainment, living alone remained associated with multiple falls, functional impairment, poor diet, smoking status, risk of social isolation, and three self-reported chronic conditions: arthritis and/or rheumatism, glaucoma, and cataracts. CONCLUSION: Clinicians working with independently-living older people living alone should anticipate higher levels of disease and disability in these patients, and higher health and social risks, much of which will be due to older age, lower educational status, and female sex. Living alone itself appears to be associated with higher risks of falling, and constellations of pathologies, including visual loss and joint disorders. Targeted population screening using lone status may be useful in identifying older individuals at high risk of falling.

Risk factors for early catheter-related infections in cancer patients

BACKGROUND: Early catheter-related infection is a serious complication in cancer treatment, although risk factors for its occurrence are not well established. The authors conducted a prospective study to identify the risk factors for developing early catheter-related infection. METHODS: All consecutive patients with cancer who underwent insertion of a central venous catheter were enrolled and were followed prospectively during 1 month. The study endpoint was occurrence of early catheter-related infection. RESULTS: Over 10,392 catheter-days of follow-up, 14 of 371 patients had early catheter-related infections (14 patients in 10,392 catheter-days or 1.34 per 1000 catheter-days). The causative pathogens were gram positive in 11 of 14 patients. In univariate analysis, the risk factors for early catheter-related infection were aged <10 years (P = .0001), difficulties during insertion (P < 10(-6)), blood product administration (P < 10(-3)), parenteral nutrition (P < 10(-4)), and use >2 days (P < 10(-6)). In multivariate analysis, 3 variables remained significantly associated with the risk of early catheter-related infection: age <10 years (odds ratio [OR], 18.4; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.9-106.7), difficulties during insertion procedure (OR, 25.6; 95% CI, 4.2-106), and parenteral nutrition (OR, 28.5; 95% CI, 4.2-200). CONCLUSIONS: On the day of insertion, 2 variables were identified that were associated with a high risk of developing an early catheter-related infection: young age and difficulties during insertion. The results from this study may be used to identify patients who are at high risk of infection who may be candidates for preventive strategies.

Modeling the influence of APOC3, APOE, and TNF polymorphisms on the risk of antiretroviral therapy-associated lipid disorders

BACKGROUND: Single-nucleotide polymorphisms in genes involved in lipoprotein and adipocyte metabolism may explain why dyslipidemia and lipoatrophy occur in some but not all antiretroviral therapy (ART)-treated individuals. METHODS: We evaluated the contribution of APOC3 -482C-->T, -455T-->C, and 3238C-->G; epsilon 2 and epsilon 4 alleles of APOE; and TNF -238G-->A to dyslipidemia and lipoatrophy by longitudinally modeling >2600 lipid determinations and 2328 lipoatrophy assessments in 329 ART-treated patients during a median follow-up period of 3.4 years. RESULTS: In human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals, the effects of variant alleles of APOE on plasma cholesterol and triglyceride levels and of APOC3 on plasma triglyceride levels were comparable to those reported in the general population. However, when treated with ritonavir, individuals with unfavorable genotypes of APOC3 and [corrected] APOE were at risk of extreme hypertriglyceridemia. They had median plasma triglyceride levels of 7.33 mmol/L, compared with 3.08 mmol/L in the absence of ART. The net effect of the APOE*APOC3*ritonavir interaction was an increase in plasma triglyceride levels of 2.23 mmol/L. No association between TNF -238G-->A and lipoatrophy was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Variant alleles of APOE and APOC3 contribute to an unfavorable lipid profile in patients with HIV. Interactions between genotypes and ART can lead to severe hyperlipidemia. Genetic analysis may identify patients at high risk for severe ritonavir-associated hypertriglyceridemia.

Risk of acute kidney injury in patients with severe aortic valve stenosis undergoing transcatheter valve replacement

BACKGROUND: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) for high-risk and inoperable patients with severe aortic stenosis is an emerging procedure in cardiovascular medicine. Little is known of the impact of TAVI on renal function. METHODS: We analysed retrospectively renal baseline characteristics and outcome in 58 patients including 2 patients on chronic haemodialysis undergoing TAVI at our institution. Acute kidney injury (AKI) was defined according to the RIFLE classification. RESULTS: Fifty-eight patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis not considered suitable for conventional surgical valve replacement with a mean age of 83 +/- 5 years underwent TAVI. Two patients died during transfemoral valve implantation and two patients in the first month after TAVI resulting in a 30-day mortality of 6.9%. Vascular access was transfemoral in 46 patients and transapical in 12. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) increased in 30 patients (56%). Fifteen patients (28%) developed AKI, of which four patients had to be dialyzed temporarily and one remained on chronic renal replacement therapy. Risk factors for AKI comprised, among others, transapical access, number of blood transfusions, postinterventional thrombocytopaenia and severe inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). CONCLUSIONS: TAVI is feasible in patients with a high burden of comorbidities and in patients with pre-existing end-stage renal disease who would be otherwise not considered as candidates for conventional aortic valve replacement. Although GFR improved in more than half of the patients, this benefit was associated with a risk of postinterventional AKI. Future investigations should define preventive measures of peri-procedural kidney injury.

High-dose daunorubicin in older patients with acute myeloid leukemia

BACKGROUND: A complete remission is essential for prolonging survival in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Daunorubicin is a cornerstone of the induction regimen, but the optimal dose is unknown. In older patients, it is usual to give daunorubicin at a dose of 45 to 50 mg per square meter of body-surface area. METHODS: Patients in whom AML or high-risk refractory anemia had been newly diagnosed and who were 60 to 83 years of age (median, 67) were randomly assigned to receive cytarabine, at a dose of 200 mg per square meter by continuous infusion for 7 days, plus daunorubicin for 3 days, either at the conventional dose of 45 mg per square meter (411 patients) or at an escalated dose of 90 mg per square meter (402 patients); this treatment was followed by a second cycle of cytarabine at a dose of 1000 mg per square meter every 12 hours [DOSAGE ERROR CORRECTED] for 6 days. The primary end point was event-free survival. RESULTS: The complete remission rates were 64% in the group that received the escalated dose of daunorubicin and 54% in the group that received the conventional dose (P=0.002); the rates of remission after the first cycle of induction treatment were 52% and 35%, respectively (P<0.001). There was no significant difference between the two groups in the incidence of hematologic toxic effects, 30-day mortality (11% and 12% in the two groups, respectively), or the incidence of moderate, severe, or life-threatening adverse events (P=0.08). Survival end points in the two groups did not differ significantly overall, but patients in the escalated-treatment group who were 60 to 65 years of age, as compared with the patients in the same age group who received the conventional dose, had higher rates of complete remission (73% vs. 51%), event-free survival (29% vs. 14%), and overall survival (38% vs. 23%). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AML who are older than 60 years of age, escalation of the dose of daunorubicin to twice the conventional dose, with the entire dose administered in the first induction cycle, effects a more rapid response and a higher response rate than does the conventional dose, without additional toxic effects. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN77039377; and Netherlands National Trial Register number, NTR212.)

A reliable risk score for stage IV esophagogastric cancer

BACKGROUND The role of surgery for patients with metastatic esophagogastric adenocarcinoma (EGC) is not defined. The purpose of this study was to define selection criteria for patients who may benefit from resection following systemic chemotherapy. METHODS From 1987 to 2007, 160 patients presenting with synchronous metastatic EGC (cT3/4 cNany cM0/1 finally pM1) were treated with chemotherapy followed by resection of the primary tumor and metastases. Clinical and histopathological data, site and number of metastases were analyzed. A prognostic score was established and validated in a second cohort from another academic center (n = 32). RESULTS The median survival (MS) in cohort 1 was 13.6 months. Significant prognostic factors were grading (p = 0.046), ypT- (p = 0.001), ypN- (p = 0.011) and R-category (p = 0.015), lymphangiosis (p = 0.021), clinical (p = 0.004) and histopathological response (p = 0.006), but not localization or number of metastases. The addition of grading (G1/2:0 points; G3/4:1 points), clinical response (responder: 0; nonresponder: 1) and R-category (complete:0; R1:1; R2:2) defines two groups of patients with significantly different survival (p = 0.001) [low risk group (Score 0/1), n = 22: MS 35.3 months, 3-year-survival 47.6%); high risk group (Score 2/3/4) n = 126: MS 12.0 months, 3-year-survival 14.2%]. The score showed a strong trend in the validation cohort (p = 0.063) [low risk group (MS not reached, 3-year-survival 57.1%); high risk group (MS 19.9 months, 3-year-survival 6.7%)]. CONCLUSION We observed long-term survival after resection of metastatic EGC. A simple clinical score may help to identify a subgroup of patients with a high chance of benefit from resection. However, the accurate estimation of achieving a complete resection, which is an integral element of the score, remains challenging.

Evaluation of 9 biomarkers for predicting 10-year cardiovascular risk in patients undergoing coronary angiography: findings from the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study.

BACKGROUND Conventional factors do not fully explain the distribution of cardiovascular outcomes. Biomarkers are known to participate in well-established pathways associated with cardiovascular disease, and may therefore provide further information over and above conventional risk factors. This study sought to determine whether individual and/or combined assessment of 9 biomarkers improved discrimination, calibration and reclassification of cardiovascular mortality. METHODS 3267 patients (2283 men), aged 18-95 years, at intermediate-to-high-risk of cardiovascular disease were followed in this prospective cohort study. Conventional risk factors and biomarkers were included based on forward and backward Cox proportional stepwise selection models. RESULTS During 10-years of follow-up, 546 fatal cardiovascular events occurred. Four biomarkers (interleukin-6, neutrophils, von Willebrand factor, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D) were retained during stepwise selection procedures for subsequent analyses. Simultaneous inclusion of these biomarkers significantly improved discrimination as measured by the C-index (0.78, P = 0.0001), and integrated discrimination improvement (0.0219, P<0.0001). Collectively, these biomarkers improved net reclassification for cardiovascular death by 10.6% (P<0.0001) when added to the conventional risk model. CONCLUSIONS In terms of adverse cardiovascular prognosis, a biomarker panel consisting of interleukin-6, neutrophils, von Willebrand factor, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D offered significant incremental value beyond that conveyed by simple conventional risk factors.

Multicentre validation of the Geneva Risk Score for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism. Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE).

There is a need to validate risk assessment tools for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We investigated whether a predefined cut-off of the Geneva Risk Score, as compared to the Padua Prediction Score, accurately distinguishes low-risk from high-risk patients regardless of the use of thromboprophylaxis. In the multicentre, prospective Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE) cohort study, 1,478 hospitalised medical patients were enrolled of whom 637 (43%) did not receive thromboprophylaxis. The primary endpoint was symptomatic VTE or VTE-related death at 90 days. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01277536. According to the Geneva Risk Score, the cumulative rate of the primary endpoint was 3.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-4.6%) in 962 high-risk vs 0.6% (95% CI 0.2-1.9%) in 516 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.5% vs 0.8% (p=0.029), respectively. In comparison, the Padua Prediction Score yielded a cumulative rate of the primary endpoint of 3.5% (95% CI 2.3-5.3%) in 714 high-risk vs 1.1% (95% CI 0.6-2.3%) in 764 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.2% vs 1.5% (p=0.130), respectively. Negative likelihood ratio was 0.28 (95% CI 0.10-0.83) for the Geneva Risk Score and 0.51 (95% CI 0.28-0.93) for the Padua Prediction Score. In conclusion, among hospitalised medical patients, the Geneva Risk Score predicted VTE and VTE-related mortality and compared favourably with the Padua Prediction Score, particularly for its accuracy to identify low-risk patients who do not require thromboprophylaxis.

Higher Risk of Incident HCV-Coinfections in MSM with a Wide HIV Transmission Bottleneck

BACKGROUND  High-risk sexual behaviors have been suggested as drivers of the recent dramatic increase of sexually-transmitted HCV among HIV-infected men who have sex with men(MSM). METHODS  We assessed the association between the HIV-transmission-bottleneck and the prevalence and incidence of HCV-coinfections in HIV-infected MSM from the Swiss-HIV-Cohort-Study(SHCS). As a proxy for the width of the transmission bottleneck we used the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides in Genotypic-Resistance-Tests(GRTs) from recent HIV-infections. We defined a broad bottleneck as a fraction of ambiguous nucleotides exceeding a previously-established threshold(0.5%). RESULTS  From the SHCS, we identified 671 MSMs with available HCV-serologies and with a HIV-GRT sampled during recent infection. Of those, 161(24.0%) exhibited a broad HIV-transmission-bottleneck, 38(5.7%) had at least one positive HCV test, and 26(3.9%) had an incident HCV infection. Individuals with broad HIV-transmission bottlenecks exhibited a twofold-higher odds of having ever experienced an HCV coinfection(OR[95%CI]=2.2[1.1, 4.3]) and a threefold-higher hazard of an incident HCV infection(HR[95%CI]= 3.0[1.4, 6.6]) than individuals with narrow HIV-transmission-bottlenecks. CONCLUSIONS  Our results indicate that the currently occurring sexual spread of HCV is focused on those MSMs that are prone to exhibit broad HIV-transmission-bottlenecks. This is consistent with an important role of high-risk behavior and mucosal-barrier-impairment in the transmission of HCV among MSM.

Analysis of caesarean section rates over time in a single Swiss centre using a ten-group classification system.

OBJECTIVE Caesarean section (CS) rates have risen over the past two decades. The aim of this observational study was to identify time-dependent variations in CS and vaginal delivery rates over a period of 11 years. METHOD All deliveries (13,701 deliveries during the period 1999-2009) at the University Women's Hospital Bern were analysed using an internationally standardised and approved ten-group classification system. Caesarean sections on maternal request (CSMR) were evaluated separately. RESULTS We detected an overall CS rate of 36.63% and an increase in the CS rate over time (p <0.001). Low-risk profile groups were the two largest populations and displayed low CS rates, with significantly decreasing relative size over time. The relative size of groups with induced labour increased significantly, but this did not have an impact on the overall CS rate. Pregnancies complicated by breech position, multiple pregnancies and abnormal lies did not have an impact on overall CS rate. The biggest contributor to a high CS rate was preterm delivery and the existence of a uterine scar from a previous CS. CSMR was 1.45% and did not have an impact on the overall CS rate. CONCLUSION The observational study identified wide variations in caesarean section and vaginal delivery rates across the groups over time, and a shift towards high-risk populations was noted. The biggest contributors to high CS rates were identified; namely, previous uterine scar and preterm delivery. Interventions aiming to reduce CS rates are planned.

Risk assessment for the design of a risk-based surveillance programme for fish farms in Switzerland (in accordance with Council Directive 2006/88/EC of the European Union).

Swiss aquaculture farms were assessed according to their risk of acquiring or spreading viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS) and infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN). Risk factors for the introduction and spread of VHS and IHN were defined and assessed using published data and expert opinions. Among the 357 aquaculture farms identified in Switzerland, 49.3% were categorised as high risk, 49.0% as medium risk and 1.7% as low risk. According to the new Directive 2006/88/EC for aquaculture of the European Union, the frequency of farm inspections must be derived from their risk levels. A sensitivity analysis showed that water supply and fish movements were highly influential on the output of the risk assessment regarding the introduction of VHS and IHN. Fish movements were also highly influential on the risk assessment output regarding the spread of these diseases.

Developing Psychosis and Its Risk States Through the Lens of Schizotypy

Starting from the early descriptions of Kraepelin and Bleuler, the construct of schizotypy was developed from observations of aberrations in nonpsychotic family members of schizophrenia patients. In contemporary diagnostic manuals, the positive symptoms of schizotypal personality disorder were included in the ultra high-risk (UHR) criteria 20 years ago, and nowadays are broadly employed in clinical early detection of psychosis. The schizotypy construct, now dissociated from strict familial risk, also informed research on the liability to develop any psychotic disorder, and in particular schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, even outside clinical settings. Against the historical background of schizotypy it is surprising that evidence from longitudinal studies linking schizotypy, UHR, and conversion to psychosis has only recently emerged; and it still remains unclear how schizotypy may be positioned in high-risk research. Following a comprehensive literature search, we review 18 prospective studies on 15 samples examining the evidence for a link between trait schizotypy and conversion to psychosis in 4 different types of samples: general population, clinical risk samples according to UHR and/or basic symptom criteria, genetic (familial) risk, and clinical samples at-risk for a nonpsychotic schizophrenia-spectrum diagnosis. These prospective studies underline the value of schizotypy in high-risk research, but also point to the lack of evidence needed to better define the position of the construct of schizotypy within a developmental psychopathology perspective of emerging psychosis and schizophrenia-spectrum disorders

Risk of falls and bleeding in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism.

OBJECTIVE Whether or not a high risk of falls increases the risk of bleeding in patients receiving anticoagulants remains a matter of debate. METHODS We conducted a prospective cohort study involving 991 patients ≥ 65 years of age who received anticoagulants for acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) at nine Swiss hospitals between September 2009 and September 2012. The study outcomes were as follows: the time to a first major episode of bleeding; and clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding. We determined the associations between the risk of falls and the time to a first episode of bleeding using competing risk regression, accounting for death as a competing event. We adjusted for known bleeding risk factors and anticoagulation as a time-varying covariate. RESULTS Four hundred fifty-eight of 991 patients (46%) were at high risk of falls. The mean duration of follow-up was 16.7 months. Patients at high risk of falls had a higher incidence of major bleeding (9.6 vs. 6.6 events/100 patient-years; P = 0.05) and a significantly higher incidence of clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding (16.7 vs. 8.3 events/100 patient-years; P < 0.001) than patients at low risk of falls. After adjustment, a high risk of falls was associated with clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding [subhazard ratio (SHR) = 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.23-2.46], but not with major bleeding (SHR = 1.24, 95% CI = 0.83-1.86). CONCLUSION In elderly patients who receive anticoagulants because of VTE, a high risk of falls is significantly associated with clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding, but not with major bleeding. Whether or not a high risk of falls is a reason against providing anticoagulation beyond 3 months should be based on patient preferences and the risk of VTE recurrence.