Stochastic simulation of rare events

Stochastic simulation is an important and practical technique for computing probabilities of rare events, like the payoff probability of a financial option, the probability that a queue exceeds a certain level or the probability of ruin of the insurer's risk process. Rare events occur so infrequently, that they cannot be reasonably recorded during a standard simulation procedure: specifc simulation algorithms which thwart the rarity of the event to simulate are required. An important algorithm in this context is based on changing the sampling distribution and it is called importance sampling. Optimal Monte Carlo algorithms for computing rare event probabilities are either logarithmic eficient or possess bounded relative error.

Genetic composition, genetic diversity, and small-scale environmental variation matter for the experimental reintroduction of a rare plant

Aims Reintroduction has become an important tool for the management of endangered plant species. We tested the little-explored effects of small-scale environmental variation, genotypic composition (i.e. identity of genotypes), and genotypic diversity on the population survival of the regionally rare clonal plant Ranunculus reptans. For this species of periodically inundated lakeshores genetic differentiation had been reported between populations and between short-flooded and long-flooded microsites within populations.Methods We established 306 experimental test populations at a previously unoccupied lake shore, comprising either monocultures of 32 genotypes, mixtures of genotypes within populations or mixtures of genotypes between populations. In 2000, three years after planting out at the experimental site, a long-lasting flood caused the death of half of the experimental populations. In 2003, an extreme drought resulted in the lowest summer water levels ever measured.Important findings Despite these climatic extremes, 27 of the established populations survived until the end of the experiment in December 2003. The success of experimental populations largely differed between microsites. Moreover, the success of genotype monocultures depended on genotype and source population. Genetic differentiation between microsites played a minor role for the success of reintroduction. After the flood, populations planted with genotypes from different source populations increased in abundance, whereas populations with genotypes from single source populations and genotype monocultures decreased. We conclude that sources for reintroductions need to be selected carefully. Moreover, mixtures of plants from different populations appear to be the best choice for successful reintroduction, at least in unpredictably varying environments.

Atypical variants of bovine spongiform encephalopathy: rare diseases with consequences for BSE surveillance and control

Occurring for the first time in 1986 in the United Kingdom, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), the so-called “mad-cow disease”, has had unprecedented consequences in veterinary public health. The implementation of drastic measures, including the ban of meat-and-bone-meal from livestock feed and the removal of specified risk materials from the food chain has eventually resulted in a significant decline of the epidemic. The disease was long thought to be caused by a single agent, but since the introduction of immunochemical diagnostic techniques, evidence of a phenotypic variation of BSE has emerged. Reviewing the literature available on the subject, this paper briefly summarizes the current knowledge about these atypical forms of BSE and discusses the consequences of their occurrence for disease control measures.

Managing Complications of Fillers: Rare and Not-So-Rare.

Fillers belong to the most frequently used beautifying products. They are generally well tolerated, but any one of them may occasionally produce adverse side effects. Adverse effects usually last as long as the filler is in the skin, which means that short-lived fillers have short-term side effects and permanent fillers may induce life-long adverse effects. The main goal is to prevent them, however, this is not always possible. Utmost care has to be given to the prevention of infections and the injection technique has to be perfect. Treatment of adverse effects is often with hyaluronidase or steroid injections and in some cases together with 5-fluorouracil plus allopurinol orally. Histological examination of biopsy specimens often helps to identify the responsible filler allowing a specific treatment to be adapted.

Locally rare species influence grassland ecosystem multifunctionality

Species diversity promotes the delivery of multiple ecosystem functions (multifunctionality). However, the relative functional importance of rare and common species in driving the biodiversity–multifunctionality relationship remains unknown. We studied the relationship between the diversity of rare and common species (according to their local abundances and across nine different trophic groups), and multifunctionality indices derived from 14 ecosystem functions on 150 grasslands across a land-use intensity (LUI) gradient. The diversity of above- and below-ground rare species had opposite effects, with rare above-ground species being associated with high levels of multifunctionality, probably because their effects on different functions did not trade off against each other. Conversely, common species were only related to average, not high, levels of multifunctionality, and their functional effects declined with LUI. Apart from the community-level effects of diversity, we found significant positive associations between the abundance of individual species and multifunctionality in 6% of the species tested. Species-specific functional effects were best predicted by their response to LUI: species that declined in abundance with land use intensification were those associated with higher levels of multifunctionality. Our results highlight the importance of rare species for ecosystem multifunctionality and help guiding future conservation priorities.