Evidence for past variations in methane availability in a Siberian thermokarst lake based on δ13C of chitinous invertebrate remains

Understanding past methane dynamics in arctic wetlands and lakes is crucial for estimating future methane release. Methane fluxes from lake ecosystems have increasingly been studied, yet only few reconstructions of past methane emissions from lakes are available. In this study, we develop an approach to assess changes in methane availability in lakes based on δ13C of chitinous invertebrate remains and apply this to a sediment record from a Siberian thermokarst lake. Diffusive methane fluxes from the surface of ten newly sampled Siberian lakes and seven previously studied Swedish lakes were compared to taxon-specific δ13C values of invertebrate remains from lake surface sediments to investigate whether these invertebrates assimilated 13C-depleted carbon typical for methane. Remains of chironomid larvae of the tribe Orthocladiinae that, in the study lakes, mainly assimilate plant-derived carbon had higher δ13C than other invertebrate groups. δ13C of other invertebrates such as several chironomid groups (Chironomus, Chironomini, Tanytarsini, and Tanypodinae), cladocerans (Daphnia), and ostracods were generally lower. δ13C of Chironomini and Daphnia, and to a lesser extent Tanytarsini was variable in the lakes and lower at sites with higher diffusive methane fluxes. δ13C of Chironomini, Tanytarsini, and Daphnia were correlated significantly with diffusive methane flux in the combined Siberian and Swedish dataset (r = −0.72, p = 0.001, r = −0.53, p = 0.03, and r = −0.81, p < 0.001, respectively), suggesting that δ13C in these invertebrates was affected by methane availability. In a second step, we measured δ13C of invertebrate remains from a sediment record of Lake S1, a shallow thermokarst lake in northeast Siberia. In this record, covering the past ca 1000 years, δ13C of taxa most sensitive to methane availability (Chironomini, Tanytarsini, and Daphnia) was lowest in sediments deposited from ca AD 1250 to ca AD 1500, and after AD 1970, coinciding with warmer climate as indicated by an independent local temperature record. As a consequence the offset in δ13C between methane-sensitive taxa and bulk organic matter was higher in these sections than in other parts of the core. In contrast, δ13C of other invertebrate taxa did not show this trend. Our results suggest higher methane availability in the study lake during warmer periods and that thermokarst lakes can respond dynamically in their methane output to changing environmental conditions.

A 950 yr temperature reconstruction from Duckhole Lake, southern Tasmania, Australia

A lack of quantitative high resolution paleoclimate data from the Southern Hemisphere limits the ability to examine current trends within the context of long-term natural climate variability. This study presents a temperature reconstruction for southern Tasmania based on analyses of a sediment core from Duckhole Lake (43.365°S, 146.875°E). The relationship between non-destructive whole core scanning reflectance spectroscopy measurements in the visible spectrum (380–730 nm) and the instrumental temperature record (ad 1911–2000) was used to develop a calibration-in-time reflectance spectroscopy-based temperature model. Results showed that a trough in reflectance from 650 to 700 nm, which represents chlorophyll and its derivatives, was significantly correlated to annual mean temperature. A calibration model was developed (R = 0.56, p auto < 0.05, root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) = 0.21°C, five-year filtered data, calibration period 1911–2000) and applied down-core to reconstruct annual mean temperatures in southern Tasmania over the last c. 950 years. This indicated that temperatures were initially cool c. ad 1050, but steadily increased until the late ad 1100s. After a brief cool period in the ad 1200s, temperatures again increased. Temperatures steadily decreased during the ad 1600s and remained relatively stable until the start of the 20th century when they rapidly decreased, before increasing from ad 1960s onwards. Comparisons with high resolution temperature records from western Tasmania, New Zealand and South America revealed some similarities, but also highlighted differences in temperature variability across the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. These are likely due to a combination of factors including the spatial variability in climate between and within regions, and differences between records that document seasonal (i.e. warm season/late summer) versus annual temperature variability. This highlights the need for further records from the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in order to constrain past natural spatial and seasonal/annual temperature variability in the region, and to accurately identify and attribute changes to natural variability and/or anthropogenic activities.

EEG microstate duration and syntax in acute, medication-naive, first-episode schizophrenia: a multi-center study

In young, first-episode, productive, medication-naive patients with schizophrenia, EEG microstates (building blocks of mentation) tend to be shortened. Koenig et al. [Koenig, T., Lehmann, D., Merlo, M., Kochi, K., Hell, D., Koukkou, M., 1999. A deviant EEG brain microstate in acute, neuroleptic-naïve schizophrenics at rest. European Archives of Psychiatry and Clinical Neuroscience 249, 205–211] suggested that shortening concerned specific microstate classes. Sequence rules (microstate concatenations, syntax) conceivably might also be affected. In 27 patients of the above type and 27 controls, from three centers, multichannel resting EEG was analyzed into microstates using k-means clustering of momentary potential topographies into four microstate classes (A–D). In patients, microstates were shortened in classes B and D (from 80 to 70 ms and from 94 to 82 ms, respectively), occurred more frequently in classes A and C, and covered more time in A and less in B. Topography differed only in class B where LORETA tomography predominantly showed stronger left and anterior activity in patients. Microstate concatenation (syntax) generally were disturbed in patients; specifically, the class sequence A→C→D→A predominated in controls, but was reversed in patients (A→D→C→A). In schizophrenia, information processing in certain classes of mental operations might deviate because of precocious termination. The intermittent occurrence might account for Bleuler's “double bookkeeping.” The disturbed microstate syntax opens a novel physiological comparison of mental operations between patients and controls.

Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study

The mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP; thousand years before present) is a key period to study the consistency between model results and proxy-based reconstruction data as it corresponds to a standard test for models and a reasonable number of proxy-based records is available. Taking advantage of this relatively large amount of information, we have compared a compilation of 50 air and sea surface temperature reconstructions with the results of three simulations performed with general circulation models and one carried out with LOVECLIM, a model of intermediate complexity. The conclusions derived from this analysis confirm that models and data agree on the large-scale spatial pattern but the models underestimate the magnitude of some observed changes and that large discrepancies are observed at the local scale. To further investigate the origin of those inconsistencies, we have constrained LOVECLIM to follow the signal recorded by the proxies selected in the compilation using a data-assimilation method based on a particle filter. In one simulation, all the 50 proxy-based records are used while in the other two only the continental or oceanic proxy-based records constrain the model results. As expected, data assimilation leads to improving the consistency between model results and the reconstructions. In particular, this is achieved in a robust way in all the experiments through a strengthening of the westerlies at midlatitude that warms up northern Europe. Furthermore, the comparison of the LOVECLIM simulations with and without data assimilation has also objectively identified 16 proxy-based paleoclimate records whose reconstructed signal is either incompatible with the signal recorded by some other proxy-based records or with model physics.

Quantitative high-resolution warm season rainfall recorded in varved sediments of Lake Oeschinen, northern Swiss Alps: calibration and validation AD 1901–2008

High-resolution, well-calibrated records of lake sediments are critically important for quantitative climate reconstructions, but they remain a methodological and analytical challenge. While several comprehensive paleotemperature reconstructions have been developed across Europe, only a few quantitative high-resolution studies exist for precipitation. Here we present a calibration and verification study of lithoclastic sediment proxies from proglacial Lake Oeschinen (46°30′N, 7°44′E, 1,580 m a.s.l., north–west Swiss Alps) that are sensitive to rainfall for the period AD 1901–2008. We collected two sediment cores, one in 2007 and another in 2011. The sediments are characterized by two facies: (A) mm-laminated clastic varves and (B) turbidites. The annual character of the laminae couplets was confirmed by radiometric dating (210Pb, 137Cs) and independent flood-layer chronomarkers. Individual varves consist of a dark sand-size spring-summer layer enriched in siliciclastic minerals and a lighter clay-size calcite-rich winter layer. Three subtypes of varves are distinguished: Type I with a 1–1.5 mm fining upward sequence; Type II with a distinct fine-sand base up to 3 mm thick; and Type III containing multiple internal microlaminae caused by individual summer rainstorm deposits. Delta-fan surface samples and sediment trap data fingerprint different sediment source areas and transport processes from the watershed and confirm the instant response of sediment flux to rainfall and erosion. Based on a highly accurate, precise and reproducible chronology, we demonstrate that sediment accumulation (varve thickness) is a quantitative predictor for cumulative boreal alpine spring (May–June) and spring/summer (May–August) rainfall (rMJ = 0.71, rMJJA = 0.60, p < 0.01). Bootstrap-based verification of the calibration model reveals a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEPMJ = 32.7 mm, RMSEPMJJA = 57.8 mm) which is on the order of 10–13 % of mean MJ and MJJA cumulative precipitation, respectively. These results highlight the potential of the Lake Oeschinen sediments for high-resolution reconstructions of past rainfall conditions in the northern Swiss Alps, central and eastern France and south-west Germany.

The association between admission systolic blood pressure and mortality in significant traumatic brain injury: A multi-centre cohort study

INTRODUCTION Low systolic blood pressure (SBP) is an important secondary insult following traumatic brain injury (TBI), but its exact relationship with outcome is not well characterised. Although a SBP of <90mmHg represents the threshold for hypotension in consensus TBI treatment guidelines, recent studies suggest redefining hypotension at higher levels. This study therefore aimed to fully characterise the association between admission SBP and mortality to further inform resuscitation endpoints. METHODS We conducted a multicentre cohort study using data from the largest European trauma registry. Consecutive adult patients with AIS head scores >2 admitted directly to specialist neuroscience centres between 2005 and July 2012 were studied. Multilevel logistic regression models were developed to examine the association between admission SBP and 30 day inpatient mortality. Models were adjusted for confounders including age, severity of injury, and to account for differential quality of hospital care. RESULTS 5057 patients were included in complete case analyses. Admission SBP demonstrated a smooth u-shaped association with outcome in a bivariate analysis, with increasing mortality at both lower and higher values, and no evidence of any threshold effect. Adjusting for confounding slightly attenuated the association between mortality and SBP at levels <120mmHg, and abolished the relationship for higher SBP values. Case-mix adjusted odds of death were 1.5 times greater at <120mmHg, doubled at <100mmHg, tripled at <90mmHg, and six times greater at SBP<70mmHg, p<0.01. CONCLUSIONS These findings indicate that TBI studies should model SBP as a continuous variable and may suggest that current TBI treatment guidelines, using a cut-off for hypotension at SBP<90mmHg, should be reconsidered.

Dynamics of vessel wall changes following the implantation of the Absorb everolimus-eluting bioresorbable vascular scaffold: a multi-imaging modality study at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months

Aims: To assess observations with multimodality imaging of the Absorb bioresorbable everolimus-eluting vascular scaffold performed in two consecutive cohorts of patients who were serially investigated either at 6 and 24 months or at 12 and 36 months. Methods and results: In the ABSORB multicentre single-arm trial, 45 patients (cohort B1) and 56 patients (cohort B2) underwent serial invasive imaging, specifically quantitative coronary angiography (QCA), intravascular ultrasound (IVUS), radiofrequency backscattering (IVUS-VH) and optical coherence tomography (OCT). Between one and three years, late luminal loss remained unchanged (6 months: 0.19 mm, 1 year: 0.27 mm, 2 years: 0.27 mm, 3 years: 0.29 mm) and the in-segment angiographic restenosis rate for the entire cohort B (n=101) at three years was 6%. On IVUS, mean lumen, scaffold, plaque and vessel area showed enlargement up to two years. Mean lumen and scaffold area remained stable between two and three years whereas significant reduction in plaque behind the struts occurred with a trend toward adaptive restrictive remodelling of EEM. Hyperechogenicity of the vessel wall, a surrogate of the bioresorption process, decreased from 23.1% to 10.4% with a reduction of radiofrequency backscattering for dense calcium and necrotic core. At three years, the count of strut cores detected on OCT increased significantly, probably reflecting the dismantling of the scaffold; 98% of struts were covered. In the entire cohort B (n=101), the three-year major adverse cardiac event rate was 10.0% without any scaffold thrombosis. Conclusions: The current investigation demonstrated the dynamics of vessel wall changes after implantation of a bioresorbable scaffold, resulting at three years in stable luminal dimensions, a low restenosis rate and a low clinical major adverse cardiac events rate.

Lake Floor Morphology and Sediment Architecture of Lake Torneträsk, Northern Sweden

ABSTRACT. Here we present datasets from a hydroacoustic survey in July 2011 at Lake Torneträsk, northern Sweden. Our hydroacoustic data exhibit lake floor morphologies formed by glacial erosion and accumulation processes, insights into lacustrine sediment accumulation since the beginning of deglaciation, and information on seismic activity along the Pärvie Fault. Features of glacial scouring with a high-energy relief, steep slopes, and relative reliefs of more than 50 m are observed in the large W-basin. The remainder of the lacustrine subsurface appears to host a broad variety of well preserved formations from glacial accumulation related to the last retreat of the Fennoscandian ice sheet. Deposition of glaciolacustrine and lacustrine sediments is focused in areas situated in proximity to major inlets. Sediment accumulation in distal areas of the lake seldom exceeds 2 m or is not observable. We assume that lack of sediment deposition in the lake is a result of different factors, including low rates of erosion in the catchment, a previously high lake level leading to deposition of sediments in higher elevated paleodeltas, tributaries carrying low suspension loads as a result of sedimentation in upstream lakes, and an overall low productivity in the lake. A clear off-shore trace of the Pärvie Fault could not be detected from our hydroacoustic data. However, an absence of sediment disturbance in close proximity to the presumed fault trace implies minimal seismic activity since deposition of the glaciolacustrine and lacustrine sediments.

Spatial variability of recent sedimentation in Lake Ohrid (Albania/Macedonia)

Abstract. Lake Ohrid is likely of Pliocene age and thus commonly referred to as the oldest existing lake in Europe. In this study spatial variability of recent sediment composition is assessed using >50 basin wide distributed surface sediment samples. Analysis of biogeochemical bulk parameters, selected metals, pigment concentrations as well as grain size distributions revealed a significant spatial heterogeneity in surface sediment composition. It implies that sedimentation in Lake Ohrid is controlled by an interaction of multiple natural and anthropogenic factors and processes. Major factors controlling surface sediment composition are related to differences in geological catchment characteristics, anthropogenic land use, and a counterclockwise rotating surface water current. In some instances processes controlling sediment composition also seem to impact distribution patterns of biodiversity, which suggests a common interaction of processes responsible for both patterns.

Climate and vegetation changes during the Lateglacial and early–middle Holocene at Lake Ledro (southern Alps, Italy)

Adding to the on-going debate regarding vegetation recolonisation (more particularly the timing) in Europe and climate change since the Lateglacial, this study investigates a long sediment core (LL081) from Lake Ledro (652ma.s.l., southern Alps, Italy). Environmental changes were reconstructed using multiproxy analysis (pollen-based vegetation and climate reconstruction, lake levels, magnetic susceptibility and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) measurements) recorded climate and land-use changes during the Lateglacial and early-middle Holocene. The well-dated and high-resolution pollen record of Lake Ledro is compared with vegetation records from the southern and northern Alps to trace the history of tree species distribution. An altitudedependent progressive time delay of the first continuous occurrence of Abies (fir) and of the Larix (larch) development has been observed since the Lateglacial in the southern Alps. This pattern suggests that the mid-altitude Lake Ledro area was not a refuge and that trees originated from lowlands or hilly areas (e.g. Euganean Hills) in northern Italy. Preboreal oscillations (ca. 11 000 cal BP), Boreal oscillations (ca. 10 200, 9300 cal BP) and the 8.2 kyr cold event suggest a centennial-scale climate forcing in the studied area. Picea (spruce) expansion occurred preferentially around 10 200 and 8200 cal BP in the south-eastern Alps, and therefore reflects the long-lasting cumulative effects of successive boreal and the 8.2 kyr cold event. The extension of Abies is contemporaneous with the 8.2 kyr event, but its development in the southern Alps benefits from the wettest interval 8200-7300 cal BP evidenced in high lake levels, flood activity and pollen-based climate reconstructions. Since ca. 7500 cal BP, a weak signal of pollen-based anthropogenic activities suggest weak human impact. The period between ca. 5700 and ca. 4100 cal BP is considered as a transition period to colder and wetter conditions (particularly during summers) that favoured a dense beech (Fagus) forest development which in return caused a distinctive yew (Taxus) decline.We conclude that climate was the dominant factor controlling vegetation changes and erosion processes during the early and middle Holocene (up to ca. 4100 cal BP).

Orbital changes, variation in solar activity and increased anthropogenic activities: controls on the Holocene flood frequency in the Lake Ledro area, Northern Italy

Adding to the on-going debate regarding vegetation recolonisation (more particularly the timing) in Europe and climate change since the Lateglacial, this study investigates a long sediment core (LL081) from Lake Ledro (652ma.s.l., southern Alps, Italy). Environmental changes were reconstructed using multiproxy analysis (pollen-based vegetation and climate reconstruction, lake levels, magnetic susceptibility and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) measurements) recorded climate and land-use changes during the Lateglacial and early-middle Holocene. The well-dated and high-resolution pollen record of Lake Ledro is compared with vegetation records from the southern and northern Alps to trace the history of tree species distribution. An altitudedependent progressive time delay of the first continuous occurrence of Abies (fir) and of the Larix (larch) development has been observed since the Lateglacial in the southern Alps. This pattern suggests that the mid-altitude Lake Ledro area was not a refuge and that trees originated from lowlands or hilly areas (e.g. Euganean Hills) in northern Italy. Preboreal oscillations (ca. 11 000 cal BP), Boreal oscillations (ca. 10 200, 9300 cal BP) and the 8.2 kyr cold event suggest a centennial-scale climate forcing in the studied area. Picea (spruce) expansion occurred preferentially around 10 200 and 8200 cal BP in the south-eastern Alps, and therefore reflects the long-lasting cumulative effects of successive boreal and the 8.2 kyr cold event. The extension of Abies is contemporaneous with the 8.2 kyr event, but its development in the southern Alps benefits from the wettest interval 8200-7300 cal BP evidenced in high lake levels, flood activity and pollen-based climate reconstructions. Since ca. 7500 cal BP, a weak signal of pollen-based anthropogenic activities suggest weak human impact. The period between ca. 5700 and ca. 4100 cal BP is considered as a transition period to colder and wetter conditions (particularly during summers) that favoured a dense beech (Fagus) forest development which in return caused a distinctive yew (Taxus) decline.We conclude that climate was the dominant factor controlling vegetation changes and erosion processes during the early and middle Holocene (up to ca. 4100 cal BP).

Lake sediments as natural seismographs: A compiled record of Late Quaternary earthquakes in Central Switzerland and its implication for Alpine deformation

Central Switzerland lies tectonically in an intraplate area and recurrence rates of strong earthquakes exceed the time span covered by historic chronicles. However, many lakes are present in the area that act as natural seismographs: their continuous, datable and high-resolution sediment succession allows extension of the earthquake catalogue to pre-historic times. This study reviews and compiles available data sets and results from more than 10 years of lacustrine palaeoseismological research in lakes of northern and Central Switzerland. The concept of using lacustrine mass-movement event stratigraphy to identify palaeo-earthquakes is showcased by presenting new data and results from Lake Zurich. The Late Glacial to Holocene mass-movement units in this lake document a complex history of varying tectonic and environmental impacts. Results include sedimentary evidence of three major and three minor, simultaneously triggered basin-wide lateral slope failure events interpreted as the fingerprints of palaeoseismic activity. A refined earthquake catalogue, which includes results from previous lake studies, reveals a non-uniform temporal distribution of earthquakes in northern and Central Switzerland. A higher frequency of earthquakes in the Late Glacial and Late Holocene period documents two different phases of neotectonic activity; they are interpreted to be related to isostatic post-glacial rebound and relatively recent (re-)activation of seismogenic zones, respectively. Magnitudes and epicentre reconstructions for the largest identified earthquakes provide evidence for two possible earthquake sources: (i) a source area in the region of the Alpine or Sub-Alpine Front due to release of accumulated north-west/south-east compressional stress related to an active basal thrust beneath the Aar massif; and (ii) a source area beneath the Alpine foreland due to reactivation of deep-seated strike-slip faults. Such activity has been repeatedly observed instrumentally, for example, during the most recent magnitude 4.2 and 3.5 earthquakes of February 2012, near Zug. The combined lacustrine record from northern and Central Switzerland indicates that at least one of these potential sources has been capable of producing magnitude 6.2 to 6.7 events in the past.

Combining sedimentological, trace metal (Mn, Mo) and molecular evidence for reconstructing past water-column redox conditions: The example of meromictic Lake Cadagno (Swiss Alps)

Here, we present sedimentological, trace metal, and molecular evidence for tracking bottom water redox-state conditions during the past 12,500 years in nowadays sulfidic and meromictic Lake Cadagno (Switzerland). A 10.5 m long sediment core from the lake covering the Holocene period was investigated for concentration variations of the trace metals Mn and Mo (XRF core scanning and ICP-MS measurements), and for the presence of anoxygenic phototrophic sulfur bacteria (carotenoid pigment analysis and 16S rDNA real time PCR). Our trace metal analysis documents an oxic-intermediate-sulfidic redox-transition period beginning shortly after the lake formation similar to 12.5 kyr ago. The oxic period is characterized by low sedimentary Mn and Mo concentrations, as well as by the absence of any remnants of anoxygenic phototrophic sulfur bacteria. Enhanced accumulation/preservation of Mn (up to 5.6 wt%) in the sediments indicates an intermediate, Mn-enriched oxygenation state with fluctuating redox conditions during a similar to 2300-year long transition interval between similar to 12.1 and 9.8 kyr BP. We propose that the high Mn concentrations are the result of enhanced Mn2+ leaching from the sediments during reducing conditions and subsequent rapid precipitation of Mn-(oxyhydr) oxide minerals during episodic and short-term water-column mixing events mainly due to flood-induced underflows. At 9800 +/- 130 cal yr BP, a rapid transition to fully sulfidic conditions is indicated by the marked enrichment of Mo in the sediments (up to 490 ppm), accompanied by an abrupt drop in Mn concentrations and the increase of molecular biomarkers that indicate the presence of anoxygenic photosynthetic bacteria in the water column. Persistently high Mo concentrations >80 ppm provide evidence that sulfidic conditions prevailed thereafter until modern times, without any lasting hypolimnetic ventilation and reoxygenation. Hence, Lake Cadagno with its persistently stable chemocline offers a framework to study in great temporal detail over similar to 12 kyr the development of phototrophic sulfur bacteria communities and redox processes in a sulfidic environment, possibly depicting analogous conditions in an ancient ocean. Our study underscores the value of combining sedimentological, geochemical, and microbiological approaches to characterize paleo-environmental and -redox conditions in lacustrine and marine settings.

Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps – solar forcing and evidence for variations in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation

The frequency of large-scale heavy precipitation events in the European Alps is expected to undergo substantial changes with current climate change. Hence, knowledge about the past natural variability of floods caused by heavy precipitation constitutes important input for climate projections. We present a comprehensive Holocene (10,000 years) reconstruction of the flood frequency in the Central European Alps combining 15 lacustrine sediment records. These records provide an extensive catalog of flood deposits, which were generated by flood-induced underflows delivering terrestrial material to the lake floors. The multi-archive approach allows suppressing local weather patterns, such as thunderstorms, from the obtained climate signal. We reconstructed mainly late spring to fall events since ice cover and precipitation in form of snow in winter at high-altitude study sites do inhibit the generation of flood layers. We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from C-14 and Be-10 records (2500-3000, 900-1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation. Enhanced flood occurrence in the South compared to the North suggests a pronounced southward position of the Westerlies and/or blocking over the northern North Atlantic, hence resembling a negative NAO state (most distinct from 4.2 to 2.4 kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age). South-Alpine flood activity therefore provides a qualitative record of variations in a paleo-NAO pattern during the Holocene. Additionally, increased South Alpine flood activity contrasts to low precipitation in tropical Central America (Cariaco Basin) on the Holocene and centennial time scale. This observation is consistent with a Holocene southward migration of the Atlantic circulation system, and hence of the ITCZ, driven by decreasing summer insolation in the Northern hemisphere, as well as with shorter-term fluctuations probably driven by solar activity. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.